VST · Vistra Corp. — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on VST. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About VST · Vistra Corp.
Vistra Corp., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The company retails electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers across states in the United States and the District of Columbia. It is also involved in electricity generation, wholesale energy purchases and sales, commodity risk management, fuel procurement, and fuel logistics management activities. In addition, the company engages in decommissioning and reclamation of retired generation facilities, including mines, and battery removal and remediation activities. It serves approximately 5 million customers with a generation capacity of approximately 44,000 megawatts with a portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities. The company was formerly known as Vistra Energy Corp. and changed its name to Vistra Corp. in July 2020. Vistra Corp. was founded in 1882 and is based in Irving, Texas.
Live Quote
HOLD (score +0) · 12-1 mom -19.9% · RSI 57.7 · above_50_only · -25.5% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (18 analysts: low $99.00 / mean $223.00 / high $320.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
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Score of 16 falls well below the 45-point threshold due to zero insider buying, active insider selling, weak quality metrics, and unconfirmed catalysts. Active anti-signal gates for dilution and concentration risk, combined with the market's rational pricing of high earnings volatility and commodity exposure, make this dossier unsuitable for publication or paper-tracking.
Vistra is a large integrated retail electricity and power generation company ($50B market cap) that rode the AI/data-center nuclear thesis to ~$220 in early 2025, then sold off roughly 32% as natural gas prices moderated and the Q4 2025 print badly missed (EPS $0.54 vs $2.30 estimate). The stock has since recovered partially from ~$133 lows, currently at $148.76 with a forward P/E of only 13.6x — cheap relative to the AI-power narrative but weighed down by macro uncertainty and the prior earnings disaster. The form4_cluster trigger was technically accurate (2 filings in 14 days) but both were from the same insider (SVP/CAO Margaret Montemayor) executing scheduled SELLs of vested RSUs, not open-market buys — a misleading signal that warrants downweighting the smart-money thesis.
The investigation triggered by a cluster of 10 Form 4 filings in 14 days turned out to be almost entirely routine annual equity compensation grants (code A, $0 price) awarded to directors at Vistra's April 29 AGM — not open-market insider purchases. One genuine secondary sale was executed by SVP/CAO Margaret Montemayor on May 27 (5,000 shares @ ~$165). The underlying story is a fundamentally strong integrated power company with exposure to AI-driven data center demand and multi-decade contracts with Meta and AWS, but the stock faces significant headwinds: Q4 2025 EPS collapsed -76.5% due to Texas power price weakness; debt has surged after a $4B refinancing in April; and the forward P/E of ~14.6x is rich versus peers in an era where commodity-exposed utilities face discount pressure.
Score of 12/100. The dossier shows no insider buying, a streak of EPS misses, suppressed IV, negative FCF yield, and elevated debt. Anti-signal gates for dilution and customer concentration further invalidate the setup, making it unsuitable for publication.
Vistra is a large-cap integrated power producer and retail electricity provider (~5M customers) with deep exposure to Texas ERCOT markets. The AI/hyperscaler data center demand thesis is real — VST has announced nuclear expansion (Zepp facility), long-term power purchase agreements, and benefits from the 'reliability shock' driving utility valuations. However, no insider open-market purchases appear in the 90-day window; CEO Burke's Form 4 activity shows only Rule 10b5-1 plan sales at elevated prices ($204-$207). The stock is down ~28% from its 52-week high of $219.82 and currently trades below both its 50 DMA (159.47) and 200 DMA (177.47), with neutral RSI (49.5). Forward P/E of 13.95x looks attractive vs. the AI-power narrative but requires Q1 earnings confirmation of revenue暴走. The company is fundamentally strong but fully valued relative to intrinsic utility peers.