{ "symbol": "VST", "company": "Vistra Corp.", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:54.215Z", "event_count": 6, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-06-23T02:13:15.754Z", "stage": "scout", "outcome": "failed", "reason": null, "trigger": "[form4_cluster] 2 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · 2 real trades", "source": "hunter" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-06T06:57:21.847Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score of 16 falls well below the 45-point threshold due to zero insider buying, active insider selling, weak quality metrics, and unconfirmed catalysts. Active anti-signal gates for dilution and concentration risk, combined with the market's rational pricing of high earnings volatility and commodity exposure, make this dossier unsuitable for publication or paper-tracking.", "score": 16, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 5, "quality": 0, "technical": 3 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-06-VST.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-06T06:56:43.271Z", "summary": "Vistra is a large integrated retail electricity and power generation company ($50B market cap) that rode the AI/data-center nuclear thesis to ~$220 in early 2025, then sold off roughly 32% as natural gas prices moderated and the Q4 2025 print badly missed (EPS $0.54 vs $2.30 estimate). The stock has since recovered partially from ~$133 lows, currently at $148.76 with a forward P/E of only 13.6x — cheap relative to the AI-power narrative but weighed down by macro uncertainty and the prior earnings disaster. The form4_cluster trigger was technically accurate (2 filings in 14 days) but both were from the same insider (SVP/CAO Margaret Montemayor) executing scheduled SELLs of vested RSUs, not open-market buys — a misleading signal that warrants downweighting the smart-money thesis.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 19, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-06-VST.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-30T07:02:35.419Z", "summary": "The investigation triggered by a cluster of 10 Form 4 filings in 14 days turned out to be almost entirely routine annual equity compensation grants (code A, $0 price) awarded to directors at Vistra's April 29 AGM — not open-market insider purchases. One genuine secondary sale was executed by SVP/CAO Margaret Montemayor on May 27 (5,000 shares @ ~$165). The underlying story is a fundamentally strong integrated power company with exposure to AI-driven data center demand and multi-decade contracts with Meta and AWS, but the stock faces significant headwinds: Q4 2025 EPS collapsed -76.5% due to Texas power price weakness; debt has surged after a $4B refinancing in April; and the forward P/E of ~14.6x is rich versus peers in an era where commodity-exposed utilities face discount pressure.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 19, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-30-VST.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-07T12:44:24.066Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score of 12/100. The dossier shows no insider buying, a streak of EPS misses, suppressed IV, negative FCF yield, and elevated debt. Anti-signal gates for dilution and customer concentration further invalidate the setup, making it unsuitable for publication.", "score": 12, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 5, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 5, "technical": 2 }, "debug_path": null }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-07T12:43:26.394Z", "summary": "Vistra is a large-cap integrated power producer and retail electricity provider (~5M customers) with deep exposure to Texas ERCOT markets. The AI/hyperscaler data center demand thesis is real — VST has announced nuclear expansion (Zepp facility), long-term power purchase agreements, and benefits from the 'reliability shock' driving utility valuations. However, no insider open-market purchases appear in the 90-day window; CEO Burke's Form 4 activity shows only Rule 10b5-1 plan sales at elevated prices ($204-$207). The stock is down ~28% from its 52-week high of $219.82 and currently trades below both its 50 DMA (159.47) and 200 DMA (177.47), with neutral RSI (49.5). Forward P/E of 13.95x looks attractive vs. the AI-power narrative but requires Q1 earnings confirmation of revenue暴走. The company is fundamentally strong but fully valued relative to intrinsic utility peers.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 15, "debug_path": null } ], "lessons": [], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "VST", "call": "HOLD", "confidence": 1, "score": 0, "factors": { "below_200dma": "-2", "above_50dma": "+1", "momentum_down": "-1 (-19.9%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (57.7)", "macd_above_signal": "+1", "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (4d ago)", "from_high": "0 (-25.5%)" }, "summary": "HOLD (score +0) · 12-1 mom -19.9% · RSI 57.7 · above_50_only · -25.5% from high", "last_close": 162.39, "one_month_ago_close": 149.08, "twelve_month_ago_close": 186.17, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -19.92, "rsi_14": 57.7, "ma_stack": "above_50_only", "from_period_high_pct": -25.48, "period_high": 217.92, "price_targets": { "bear": 99, "fair": 180, "bull": 320, "bear_return_pct": -39, "fair_return_pct": 10.8, "bull_return_pct": 97.1, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 99, "target_mean": 223, "target_high": 320, "analyst_count": 18 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:54.210Z" } }