ROK · Rockwell Automation, Inc. — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on ROK. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About ROK · Rockwell Automation, Inc.
Rockwell Automation, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides industrial automation and digital transformation solutions in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. It operates in three segments: Intelligent Devices, Software & Control, and Lifecycle Services. The company offers drives, motion, advanced material handling, safety, sensing, industrial components, hardware, software, and configured-to-order products; and control and visualization software and hardware, digital twin, simulation and information software, network and security infrastructure, and custom-engineered systems. It also provides digital consulting, professional services, engineered-to-order solutions, recurring services, cybersecurity, safety, remote monitoring, customer technical support and repair, asset management and optimization consulting, and training, as well as spare parts. The company sells its products through independent distributors in relation to its direct sales force. It serves discrete end markets, including automotive, semiconductor, e-commerce, and warehouse automation; hybrid end markets, such as food and beverage, life sciences, and tire; and process end markets comprising energy, mining, and chemicals. The company was formerly known as Rockwell International Corporation and changed its name to Rockwell Automation, Inc. in February 2002. Rockwell Automation, Inc. was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
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HOLD (score +4) · 12-1 mom 35.1% · RSI 51.5 · above_both · -4.5% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (27 analysts: low $282.00 / mean $465.01 / high $525.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
ROK is a high-quality industrial automation leader that has had an exceptional run (YTD +31.8%) and now sits ~1.9% below its 52-week high at $459. The trigger was two recent Form 4 filings — but both are routine: Matthew Fordenwalt's filing (6/3-6/4) is a pre-scheduled RSU vest+sale under a Rule 10b5-1 plan entered in November 2025, and the second (6/4) is a pure scheduled sale. No open-market discretionary insider purchases exist anywhere in the trailing window. The stock trades at a premium forward P/E of ~31.6x vs an estimated sector median of ~20-24x, and EV/EBITDA of ~27.8x — well above peers. Aggressive buybacks (completed $6.79B program; newly authorized another $1B) are returning capital but also signaling management views the stock as fairly or fully valued. No material mispricing exists.
Score falls well below the 45 threshold due to rich valuation (31.9x FPE vs 22x sector median), zero insider buying, and lack of a concrete edge or margin of safety. Anti-signal flags for dilution and concentration further justify skipping.
Rockwell Automation has delivered four consecutive EPS beats (last Q: +14.6% vs estimate) with strong double-digit revenue growth in H1 FY2026, driven by demand in North America and discrete sectors including data centers, e-commerce, and semiconductors. However, the stock is trading at its 52-week high ($462 vs $468 high), a rich forward P/E of ~31.9x and EV/EBITDA of ~28x — well above sector medians for industrial automation names. The two recent Form 4 filings that triggered investigation were both SELLING from an SVP (Matthew Fordenwalt) via pre-established Rule 10b5-1 plans to cover RSU taxes, not discretionary open-market purchases. No CEO/CFO buys are present in the trailing data. There is no identified mispricing; the stock appears fully valued at elevated multiples with limited near-term re-rating catalyst beyond continued AI-driven smart manufacturing tailwinds.
ROK trades at a rich 31x forward P/E with zero insider buying and material insider selling. The dossier confirms no mispricing edge, and active anti-signal gates (customer concentration, dilution) alongside a low composite score clear it for the skip bin.
Rockwell Automation is the world's largest industrial automation company with dominant positions in control systems, drives, and software. The Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation was examined closely: ALL filings were option exercise (M-code) transactions followed by Rule 10b5-1 sell programs — not open-market purchases. Zero P-code buys from any insider in the last 14 days. This is a critical anti-signal. Q2 FY26 earnings beat on May 5 with guidance raised, and the stock hit a new 52-week high immediately after. The forward P/E of 31x versus an estimated sector median of ~22-25x for industrials confirms the name is not mispriced — it commands a premium because it's a quality compounder. No material edge in data.
No insider conviction, no valuation discount, and elevated IV around a near-all-time-high price leave no asymmetric or income edge. The dossier's own verdict correctly identifies it as a range-bound/income candidate, but the low score and premium valuation preclude a publishable thesis under current methodology.
Rockwell Automation reported a strong Q2 FY26 earnings beat on May 5, 2026 (EPS $3.10 actual vs $2.88 est; +14.55% surprise; revenue $2.24B up ~12% YoY), which sent the stock surging from ~$400 to ~$454 in a single session. The FY26 guidance was raised on double-digit order growth and strength across Intelligent Devices and Software & Control segments. However, the Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation consists entirely of routine exercise-and-sell transactions under pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plans — zero open-market discretionary buys (P-code) from executives, meaning the trigger was a false signal for smart-money conviction. At forward P/E ~31.5x and EV/EBITDA ~27.5x on a stock near its all-time high with elevated IV (~34-40%), there is no compelling mispricing for an asymmetric long. The setup most suitable here is income generation via covered calls or CSPs on pullbacks, not directional exposure.