{
  "symbol": "ROK",
  "company": "Rockwell Automation, Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.313Z",
  "event_count": 7,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-13T19:21:59.078Z",
      "summary": "ROK is a high-quality industrial automation leader that has had an exceptional run (YTD +31.8%) and now sits ~1.9% below its 52-week high at $459. The trigger was two recent Form 4 filings — but both are routine: Matthew Fordenwalt's filing (6/3-6/4) is a pre-scheduled RSU vest+sale under a Rule 10b5-1 plan entered in November 2025, and the second (6/4) is a pure scheduled sale. No open-market discretionary insider purchases exist anywhere in the trailing window. The stock trades at a premium forward P/E of ~31.6x vs an estimated sector median of ~20-24x, and EV/EBITDA of ~27.8x — well above peers. Aggressive buybacks (completed $6.79B program; newly authorized another $1B) are returning capital but also signaling management views the stock as fairly or fully valued. No material mispricing exists.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 11,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-13-ROK.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-05T05:12:42.929Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 45 threshold due to rich valuation (31.9x FPE vs 22x sector median), zero insider buying, and lack of a concrete edge or margin of safety. Anti-signal flags for dilution and concentration further justify skipping.",
      "score": 27,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 2,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 5
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-05-ROK.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-05T05:11:27.453Z",
      "summary": "Rockwell Automation has delivered four consecutive EPS beats (last Q: +14.6% vs estimate) with strong double-digit revenue growth in H1 FY2026, driven by demand in North America and discrete sectors including data centers, e-commerce, and semiconductors. However, the stock is trading at its 52-week high ($462 vs $468 high), a rich forward P/E of ~31.9x and EV/EBITDA of ~28x — well above sector medians for industrial automation names. The two recent Form 4 filings that triggered investigation were both SELLING from an SVP (Matthew Fordenwalt) via pre-established Rule 10b5-1 plans to cover RSU taxes, not discretionary open-market purchases. No CEO/CFO buys are present in the trailing data. There is no identified mispricing; the stock appears fully valued at elevated multiples with limited near-term re-rating catalyst beyond continued AI-driven smart manufacturing tailwinds.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 17,
      "walltime_min": 29,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-05-ROK.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-16T11:32:34.492Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "ROK trades at a rich 31x forward P/E with zero insider buying and material insider selling. The dossier confirms no mispricing edge, and active anti-signal gates (customer concentration, dilution) alongside a low composite score clear it for the skip bin.",
      "score": 26,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 6
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-16-ROK.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-16T11:31:57.488Z",
      "summary": "Rockwell Automation is the world's largest industrial automation company with dominant positions in control systems, drives, and software. The Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation was examined closely: ALL filings were option exercise (M-code) transactions followed by Rule 10b5-1 sell programs — not open-market purchases. Zero P-code buys from any insider in the last 14 days. This is a critical anti-signal. Q2 FY26 earnings beat on May 5 with guidance raised, and the stock hit a new 52-week high immediately after. The forward P/E of 31x versus an estimated sector median of ~22-25x for industrials confirms the name is not mispriced — it commands a premium because it's a quality compounder. No material edge in data.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 22,
      "walltime_min": 28,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-16-ROK.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-09T05:09:42.222Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "No insider conviction, no valuation discount, and elevated IV around a near-all-time-high price leave no asymmetric or income edge. The dossier's own verdict correctly identifies it as a range-bound/income candidate, but the low score and premium valuation preclude a publishable thesis under current methodology.",
      "score": 14,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 5,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 4
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-09-ROK.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-09T05:08:34.466Z",
      "summary": "Rockwell Automation reported a strong Q2 FY26 earnings beat on May 5, 2026 (EPS $3.10 actual vs $2.88 est; +14.55% surprise; revenue $2.24B up ~12% YoY), which sent the stock surging from ~$400 to ~$454 in a single session. The FY26 guidance was raised on double-digit order growth and strength across Intelligent Devices and Software & Control segments. However, the Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation consists entirely of routine exercise-and-sell transactions under pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plans — zero open-market discretionary buys (P-code) from executives, meaning the trigger was a false signal for smart-money conviction. At forward P/E ~31.5x and EV/EBITDA ~27.5x on a stock near its all-time high with elevated IV (~34-40%), there is no compelling mispricing for an asymmetric long. The setup most suitable here is income generation via covered calls or CSPs on pullbacks, not directional exposure.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 25,
      "walltime_min": 36,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-09-ROK.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "ROK",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 4,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (35.1%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (51.5)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (0d ago)",
      "near_52w_high": "+1 (-4.5% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +4) · 12-1 mom 35.1% · RSI 51.5 · above_both · -4.5% from high",
    "last_close": 456.36,
    "one_month_ago_close": 440.25,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 325.95,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 35.07,
    "rsi_14": 51.5,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -4.54,
    "period_high": 478.08,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 282,
      "fair": 453.3,
      "bull": 549.79,
      "bear_return_pct": -38.2,
      "fair_return_pct": -0.7,
      "bull_return_pct": 20.5,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 282,
        "target_mean": 465.00778,
        "target_high": 525,
        "analyst_count": 27
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.308Z"
  }
}