MRCY · Mercury Systems, Inc. — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on MRCY. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About MRCY · Mercury Systems, Inc.
Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for defense prime contractors, original equipment manufacturers, government, and commercial aerospace companies. The company offers components, including power amplifiers and limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits, and memory and storage devices; modules and sub-assemblies, such as embedded processing boards, switched fabrics and boards, digital receivers, multi-chip modules, integrated radio frequency and microwave multi-function assemblies, tuners, and transceivers, as well as graphics and video; and integrated subsystems. It also designs, develops, and manufactures digital radio frequency memory units for various modern electronic warfare applications; radar environment simulation and test systems for defense and intelligence applications; and signals intelligence payloads and EO/IR technologies for small UAV platforms, as well as onboard UAV processor systems for real-time wide area motion imagery. It operates in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company was formerly known as Mercury Computer Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Mercury Systems, Inc. in November 2012. Mercury Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Live Quote
HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom 92.9% · RSI 55.2 · above_both · -7.8% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (8 analysts: low $68.00 / mean $101.50 / high $120.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
Extreme valuation (73x Fwd P/E and EV/EBITDA) on an unprofitable company, combined with aggressively bearish options flow (8.27 P/C ratio), recent material insider selling, and an overbought technical setup (RSI 78.6) at all-time highs. The market has already priced in the backlog strength, and there is no asymmetric upside or mathematically sound income structure that justifies taking risk here.
Extreme valuation (73x Fwd P/E and EV/EBITDA) on an unprofitable company, combined with aggressively bearish options flow (8.27 P/C ratio), recent material insider selling, and an overbought technical setup (RSI 78.6) at all-time highs. The market has already priced in the backlog strength, and there is no asymmetric upside or mathematically sound income structure that justifies taking risk here.
MRCY is a defense electronics technology company selling mission-critical processing components (RF/microwave components, embedded computing modules, integrated subsystems) to top-tier defense primes and the U.S. government for radar, electronic warfare, C4I, and avionics applications. The Q3 FY26 earnings report was genuinely strong — record bookings of $348M (+74% YoY), book-to-bill of 1.48x, and $1.6B backlog (+18%) with management raising full-year guidance on the back of domestic revenue up 17% organically. However, MRCY is a long-duration growth story still losing money on a GAAP basis (net loss FY2025: -$37.9M; TTM net margin: -1.5%), and the stock has already run ~46% YTD to near its all-time high of $113.47. Valuation at 73x forward P/E and 73x EV/EBITDA is extreme for an unprofitable company, even in a high-quality defense context. Options flow is aggressively bearish (put/call ratio 8.27). Insider selling by former CEO/director Howard L. Lance (~9,250 shares ~$920K in May 2026) at $99-101 is the opposite of conviction buying. No open-market insider purchases in recent memory. The stock appears fully priced given rich multiples and no near-term re-rating catalyst beyond continued backlog conversion — which the market has already awarded with a +46% YTD move.
Rich valuation (64x Fwd P/E vs ~22x sector median), deeply bearish options flow (-40.8% net dollar bias), and material insider selling outweigh the positive EPS surprise pattern. Anti-signal gates for dilution and accounting irregularities further justify skipping.
MRCY is a defense electronics technology company (mission-critical embedded processing components, modules, subsystems) trading near its 52-week high ($98.55 vs $103.84 peak), up ~36% over the past year. The underlying business shows genuine improvement — record Q3 FY26 bookings of $348M (+73.7% YoY), backlog growing 17.9% to ~$1.6B, and non-GAAP EPS inflecting sharply from near-zero to $0.27 in Q3 with full-year guidance raised. However, valuation is punishing: forward P/E ~64x and EV/EBITDA ~63.8x vs sector medians of ~20-25x for defense electronics peers. The recent Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation consists of two director-level SALES (Carvalho sold 7,000 shares at $89.36; Ratner sold 2,000 shares at $92.46) — not purchases. There are no CEO/CFO open-market buys in the 90-day window. Options flow is notably bearish (put/call ratio 7.09 with -40.8% net dollar bias). At current levels, near-overbought technicals (RSI 70.5), rich valuation, and absence of smart-money buying collectively argue for an income/CC strategy rather than a bullish long.
MRCY delivered a powerful Q3 FY26 beat (revenue +12% YoY to $236M; non-GAAP EPS ~$0.27 vs $0.07 est.) with record bookings of $348M (+74% YoY) and record backlog of $1.6B. Management raised full-year guidance and expects Q4 margin expansion and positive FCF — a meaningful inflection from years of GAAP losses driven by heavy D&A amortization from acquisitions. However, the stock trades at ~60x forward P/E and 62x EV/EBITDA against an Industrials/Aerospace & Defense peer median far below those multiples. The two recent Form 4 filings that triggered this investigation were director (Carvalho) and executive CHRO (Ratner) SELLING transactions — not buys. No open-market insider buying cluster exists; the trigger was a guidance-up news headline. The stock is near its 52-week high with limited valuation cushion.
{"symbol":"MRCY","company":"Mercury Systems, Inc.","investigation_summary":"Mercury Systems reported exceptional Q3 FY26 results on May 5, 2026 — EPS beat by ~290%, record bookings of $348M (+73.7% YoY), book-to-bill 1.48x, backlog at $1.6B (+18% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA surged +46% YoY to $36M. Revenue grew 11.5% organically. However, GAAP net loss persists (-$2.9M in Q3) and valuation is stretched: