{
  "symbol": "MRCY",
  "company": "Mercury Systems, Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:50.270Z",
  "event_count": 7,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-05-30T22:00:38.718Z",
      "stage": "analyst",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "Extreme valuation (73x Fwd P/E and EV/EBITDA) on an unprofitable company, combined with aggressively bearish options flow (8.27 P/C ratio), recent material insider selling, and an overbought technical setup (RSI 78.6) at all-time highs. The market has already priced in the backlog strength, and there is no asymmetric upside or mathematically sound income structure that justifies taking risk here.",
      "trigger": "watchlist rotation · core · defense-coldwar",
      "source": "watchlist"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-30T22:00:38.698Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Extreme valuation (73x Fwd P/E and EV/EBITDA) on an unprofitable company, combined with aggressively bearish options flow (8.27 P/C ratio), recent material insider selling, and an overbought technical setup (RSI 78.6) at all-time highs. The market has already priced in the backlog strength, and there is no asymmetric upside or mathematically sound income structure that justifies taking risk here.",
      "score": 18,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 3
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-30-MRCY.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-30T22:00:10.218Z",
      "summary": "MRCY is a defense electronics technology company selling mission-critical processing components (RF/microwave components, embedded computing modules, integrated subsystems) to top-tier defense primes and the U.S. government for radar, electronic warfare, C4I, and avionics applications. The Q3 FY26 earnings report was genuinely strong — record bookings of $348M (+74% YoY), book-to-bill of 1.48x, and $1.6B backlog (+18%) with management raising full-year guidance on the back of domestic revenue up 17% organically. However, MRCY is a long-duration growth story still losing money on a GAAP basis (net loss FY2025: -$37.9M; TTM net margin: -1.5%), and the stock has already run ~46% YTD to near its all-time high of $113.47. Valuation at 73x forward P/E and 73x EV/EBITDA is extreme for an unprofitable company, even in a high-quality defense context. Options flow is aggressively bearish (put/call ratio 8.27). Insider selling by former CEO/director Howard L. Lance (~9,250 shares ~$920K in May 2026) at $99-101 is the opposite of conviction buying. No open-market insider purchases in recent memory. The stock appears fully priced given rich multiples and no near-term re-rating catalyst beyond continued backlog conversion — which the market has already awarded with a +46% YTD move.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 18,
      "walltime_min": 30,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-30-MRCY.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-22T21:37:11.961Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Rich valuation (64x Fwd P/E vs ~22x sector median), deeply bearish options flow (-40.8% net dollar bias), and material insider selling outweigh the positive EPS surprise pattern. Anti-signal gates for dilution and accounting irregularities further justify skipping.",
      "score": 24,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 4
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-22-MRCY.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-22T21:36:41.337Z",
      "summary": "MRCY is a defense electronics technology company (mission-critical embedded processing components, modules, subsystems) trading near its 52-week high ($98.55 vs $103.84 peak), up ~36% over the past year. The underlying business shows genuine improvement — record Q3 FY26 bookings of $348M (+73.7% YoY), backlog growing 17.9% to ~$1.6B, and non-GAAP EPS inflecting sharply from near-zero to $0.27 in Q3 with full-year guidance raised. However, valuation is punishing: forward P/E ~64x and EV/EBITDA ~63.8x vs sector medians of ~20-25x for defense electronics peers. The recent Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation consists of two director-level SALES (Carvalho sold 7,000 shares at $89.36; Ratner sold 2,000 shares at $92.46) — not purchases. There are no CEO/CFO open-market buys in the 90-day window. Options flow is notably bearish (put/call ratio 7.09 with -40.8% net dollar bias). At current levels, near-overbought technicals (RSI 70.5), rich valuation, and absence of smart-money buying collectively argue for an income/CC strategy rather than a bullish long.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 17,
      "walltime_min": 32,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-22-MRCY.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-15T19:09:50.578Z",
      "summary": "MRCY delivered a powerful Q3 FY26 beat (revenue +12% YoY to $236M; non-GAAP EPS ~$0.27 vs $0.07 est.) with record bookings of $348M (+74% YoY) and record backlog of $1.6B. Management raised full-year guidance and expects Q4 margin expansion and positive FCF — a meaningful inflection from years of GAAP losses driven by heavy D&A amortization from acquisitions. However, the stock trades at ~60x forward P/E and 62x EV/EBITDA against an Industrials/Aerospace & Defense peer median far below those multiples. The two recent Form 4 filings that triggered this investigation were director (Carvalho) and executive CHRO (Ratner) SELLING transactions — not buys. No open-market insider buying cluster exists; the trigger was a guidance-up news headline. The stock is near its 52-week high with limited valuation cushion.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 17,
      "walltime_min": 20,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-15-MRCY.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-09T00:16:32.178Z",
      "summary": "{\"symbol\":\"MRCY\",\"company\":\"Mercury Systems, Inc.\",\"investigation_summary\":\"Mercury Systems reported exceptional Q3 FY26 results on May 5, 2026 — EPS beat by ~290%, record bookings of $348M (+73.7% YoY), book-to-bill 1.48x, backlog at $1.6B (+18% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA surged +46% YoY to $36M. Revenue grew 11.5% organically. However, GAAP net loss persists (-$2.9M in Q3) and valuation is stretched:",
      "verdict": "unparseable",
      "tool_calls": 24,
      "walltime_min": 25,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-08-MRCY.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "MRCY",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 3,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (92.9%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (55.2)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (4d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-7.8%)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom 92.9% · RSI 55.2 · above_both · -7.8% from high",
    "last_close": 110.87,
    "one_month_ago_close": 96.36,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 49.96,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 92.87,
    "rsi_14": 55.2,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -7.84,
    "period_high": 120.3,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 68,
      "fair": 102.87,
      "bull": 138.35,
      "bear_return_pct": -38.7,
      "fair_return_pct": -7.2,
      "bull_return_pct": 24.8,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 68,
        "target_mean": 101.5,
        "target_high": 120,
        "analyst_count": 8
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:50.265Z"
  }
}