KTOS · Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on KTOS. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About KTOS · Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc., a technology company, provides technology, hardware, products, system, and software for the defense, national security, and commercial markets in the United States, other North America, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and Internationally. The company operates through Kratos Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems segments. It offers virtualized ground systems for satellites and space vehicles, including software for command and control, telemetry, and tracking and control; jet powered unmanned aerial drone systems and hypersonic vehicles and rocket systems; propulsion systems for drones, missiles, loitering munitions, supersonic systems, spacecraft and launch systems, command, control, communication, computing, combat, and intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance; and microwave electronic products for missile, radar, missile defense, space, and satellite; and counter unmanned aircraft systems, directed energy, communication and other systems, and virtual and augmented reality training systems for the warfighter. The company primarily serves national security-related agencies, the U.S. Department of Defense, intelligence and classified agencies, international government agencies, and domestic and international commercial customers. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. was formerly known as Wireless Facilities, Inc. and changed its name to Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. in August 1999. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
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SELL (score -5) · 12-1 mom 34.1% · RSI 36.3 · below_both · -61.1% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (20 analysts: low $75.00 / mean $112.20 / high $150.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
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KTOS has record backlog (~$14.3B pipeline) and strong Q1 2026 revenue growth (+23% YoY), but the Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation consists entirely of scheduled selling via pre-adopted 10b5-1 plans by multiple executives at elevated prices — NOT open-market conviction purchases. This is a critical signal inversion: no insider buyer was found in any recent filing. The stock has been crushed ~55% from its $134 high (January 2026) after a dilutive $1.35B equity raise and multiple acquisitions that inflated the share count materially. Forward P/E of 54x with negative FCF and razor-thin operating margins (~1.8%) leaves little room for earnings multiple expansion. The Pentagon Drone Dominance catalyst ($1.1B program) is real but speculative, tied to funding arrangements not yet confirmed.
KTOS has dropped ~58% from its 52-week high of $134 to the mid-$50s area. The Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation is almost entirely RSU vestings (M-codes) and pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sales — not genuine open-market purchases. The CFO sold ~$305K and President/divisional head Carrai sold ~$339K both via 10b5-1 plans in May 2026 at prices above $50. No CEO or director has made a discretionary open-market purchase (P-code) in the look-back window. Meanwhile, Q2 earnings on August 6 beat by an average of +18% over the last four quarters, FY26 guidance was raised after strong Q1 execution, and a record $2.01B backlog (3:1 book-to-bill in space) supports revenue visibility. However, valuation is demanding — forward P/E of 52x and EV/EBITDA of ~114x for a company burning free cash flow are significant headwinds that explain the selloff from peak multiples.
KTOS has had an explosive fundamentals run — 22% revenue growth, four consecutive earnings beats averaging +17.8%, record $1.635B backlog, Q1 2026 EPS of $0.16 vs $0.134 estimate (+19%), and full-year guidance raised twice in the past six months. However, the stock has been decimated: down ~61% from its January 2026 52-week high of $134 to last close of $52.09 as investors repriced away a frothy multiple (trailing P/E was 306x; even forward P/E sits at 47.7x). The company burns negative FCF despite recent profitability, and insiders are net sellers via pre-planned 10b5-1 programs. Options flow is heavily put-biased ($342K vs $99K in calls), and the stock trades below both its 50-day ($71.81) and 200-day ($80.79) moving averages with RSI at 32.2 (oversold but not extreme). No CEO/CFO open-market purchase cluster was found — recent Form 4s show only RSU vesting events for directors and one officer's scheduled sale under a June 2025 10b5-1 plan. The thesis is challenged by elevated IV (~73%) that mostly reflects downside fear, making premium collection strategies viable but not directional long setups.
KTOS reported a strong Q1 2026 (EPS $0.16 vs $0.13 est., revenue +22.6% YoY to $371M), raised FY26 guidance, and has robust demand (backlog $1.635B, book-to-bill 1.6x). However, all recent Form 4 filings are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 SELL transactions by executives — not discretionary open-market purchases. The stock is down ~56% from its $134 high, now at $57.89 with a forward P/E of 53.8 and EV/EBITDA of 115.9. Options flow shows heavy put buying (V/OI ratio up to 24.81 at the $90 strike), net dollar bias -91%. Q2 guidance of $405M came in slightly below consensus, creating a post-earnings selloff. The combination of richly-valued metrics, insider selling via pre-planned programs, bearish technicals, and elevated put positioning does not constitute an anomaly worth pursuing — it is simply a high-multiple defense tech name that has re-rated lower.