{ "symbol": "KTOS", "company": "Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.286Z", "event_count": 5, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-06-20T13:10:21.629Z", "stage": "scout", "outcome": "failed", "reason": null, "trigger": "[form4_cluster] 4 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · 4 real trades", "source": "hunter" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-06T02:29:48.570Z", "summary": "KTOS has record backlog (~$14.3B pipeline) and strong Q1 2026 revenue growth (+23% YoY), but the Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation consists entirely of scheduled selling via pre-adopted 10b5-1 plans by multiple executives at elevated prices — NOT open-market conviction purchases. This is a critical signal inversion: no insider buyer was found in any recent filing. The stock has been crushed ~55% from its $134 high (January 2026) after a dilutive $1.35B equity raise and multiple acquisitions that inflated the share count materially. Forward P/E of 54x with negative FCF and razor-thin operating margins (~1.8%) leaves little room for earnings multiple expansion. The Pentagon Drone Dominance catalyst ($1.1B program) is real but speculative, tied to funding arrangements not yet confirmed.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 24, "walltime_min": 26, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-06-KTOS.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-22T23:26:31.237Z", "summary": "KTOS has dropped ~58% from its 52-week high of $134 to the mid-$50s area. The Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation is almost entirely RSU vestings (M-codes) and pre-scheduled 10b5-1 sales — not genuine open-market purchases. The CFO sold ~$305K and President/divisional head Carrai sold ~$339K both via 10b5-1 plans in May 2026 at prices above $50. No CEO or director has made a discretionary open-market purchase (P-code) in the look-back window. Meanwhile, Q2 earnings on August 6 beat by an average of +18% over the last four quarters, FY26 guidance was raised after strong Q1 execution, and a record $2.01B backlog (3:1 book-to-bill in space) supports revenue visibility. However, valuation is demanding — forward P/E of 52x and EV/EBITDA of ~114x for a company burning free cash flow are significant headwinds that explain the selloff from peak multiples.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 23, "walltime_min": 10, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-22-KTOS.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-16T09:44:12.026Z", "summary": "KTOS has had an explosive fundamentals run — 22% revenue growth, four consecutive earnings beats averaging +17.8%, record $1.635B backlog, Q1 2026 EPS of $0.16 vs $0.134 estimate (+19%), and full-year guidance raised twice in the past six months. However, the stock has been decimated: down ~61% from its January 2026 52-week high of $134 to last close of $52.09 as investors repriced away a frothy multiple (trailing P/E was 306x; even forward P/E sits at 47.7x). The company burns negative FCF despite recent profitability, and insiders are net sellers via pre-planned 10b5-1 programs. Options flow is heavily put-biased ($342K vs $99K in calls), and the stock trades below both its 50-day ($71.81) and 200-day ($80.79) moving averages with RSI at 32.2 (oversold but not extreme). No CEO/CFO open-market purchase cluster was found — recent Form 4s show only RSU vesting events for directors and one officer's scheduled sale under a June 2025 10b5-1 plan. The thesis is challenged by elevated IV (~73%) that mostly reflects downside fear, making premium collection strategies viable but not directional long setups.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 21, "walltime_min": 21, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-16-KTOS.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-09T01:08:18.961Z", "summary": "KTOS reported a strong Q1 2026 (EPS $0.16 vs $0.13 est., revenue +22.6% YoY to $371M), raised FY26 guidance, and has robust demand (backlog $1.635B, book-to-bill 1.6x). However, all recent Form 4 filings are pre-scheduled 10b5-1 SELL transactions by executives — not discretionary open-market purchases. The stock is down ~56% from its $134 high, now at $57.89 with a forward P/E of 53.8 and EV/EBITDA of 115.9. Options flow shows heavy put buying (V/OI ratio up to 24.81 at the $90 strike), net dollar bias -91%. Q2 guidance of $405M came in slightly below consensus, creating a post-earnings selloff. The combination of richly-valued metrics, insider selling via pre-planned programs, bearish technicals, and elevated put positioning does not constitute an anomaly worth pursuing — it is simply a high-multiple defense tech name that has re-rated lower.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 27, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-09-KTOS.scout.debug.json" } ], "lessons": [], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "KTOS", "call": "SELL", "confidence": 3, "score": -5, "factors": { "below_200dma": "-2", "below_50dma": "-1", "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (34.1%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (36.3)", "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (3d ago)", "broken_below_high": "-2 (-61.1% from high)" }, "summary": "SELL (score -5) · 12-1 mom 34.1% · RSI 36.3 · below_both · -61.1% from high", "last_close": 50.8, "one_month_ago_close": 54.67, "twelve_month_ago_close": 40.77, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 34.09, "rsi_14": 36.3, "ma_stack": "below_both", "from_period_high_pct": -61.14, "period_high": 130.72, "price_targets": { "bear": 75, "fair": 74.45, "bull": 150.33, "bear_return_pct": 47.6, "fair_return_pct": 46.6, "bull_return_pct": 195.9, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 75, "target_mean": 112.2, "target_high": 150, "analyst_count": 20 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.282Z" } }