ON · ON Semiconductor Corporation — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on ON. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About ON · ON Semiconductor Corporation
ON Semiconductor Corporation provides intelligent sensing and power solutions in Hong Kong, Singapore, the United Kingdom, the United States, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Power Solutions Group, Analog and Mixed-Signal Group, and Intelligent Sensing Group. The Power Solutions Group segment offers discrete, module, and integrated semiconductor devices designed to enable power conversion, including power switching, signal conditioning, and circuit protection technologies. Its Analog and Mixed-Signal Group segment designs and develops analog and mixed-signal solutions, including power management, sensor interface, connectivity, and standard products for automotive, industrial automation, AI data centers, computing, and mobile end markets. The Intelligent Sensing Group segment develops complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor image sensors, image signal processors, short-wave infrared sensors, and other products, as well as photon-counting technologies, including single-photon avalanche diode arrays and silicon photomultiplier devices for depth sensing, factory automation, safety systems, and robotics industries. ON Semiconductor Corporation was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Live Quote
HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom 102.2% · RSI 50.4 · above_both · -12.6% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (27 analysts: low $68.00 / mean $107.15 / high $150.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
Stage crashed before producing an artifact (e.g. LM Studio timeout, malformed JSON, network error). The cooldown will hold this off the queue for ~1h before retry.
Score falls well below the publishing threshold due to zero insider buying, material insider selling, and a fully valued profile trading at a premium to sector medians. While IV is elevated, the lack of clear mispricing or unpriced catalysts, combined with unsubstantiated anti-signal flags, fails to meet the high-bar publish criteria.
ON is a semiconductor company in strong cyclical recovery mode — Q1 FY2026 beat estimates by 4%, AI data center revenues are accelerating, and gross margin expansion is underway. However, three recent red flags warrant caution: (1) the stock has doubled year-to-date and sits at its 52-week high with an RSI near 70; (2) a $1.3 billion zero-coupon convertible notes offering priced at a 52.5% premium to market (potential dilution overhang); and (3) no open-market insider buys in the past 90 days — only RSU vestings and CFO selling into strength. The core bullish thesis is intact but the stock appears fully valued on near-term metrics, making an income/structured-play more appropriate than an asymmetric long.
Lessons Referencing This Ticker
For zero-revenue resource companies, earnings reports are operational milestone updates, not financial performance events. Market reaction is typically delayed 3-7 days as analysts digest operational details (mine start-up, production targets, inventory decisions). Use longer-dated options (7-14 DTE) or calendar spreads instead of tight DTE spreads that expire before the full reaction.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread
In low-float, high-short-interest commodity names (~10%+ shorts), pre-earnings positioning can cause large directional spikes (10-15%) that distort entry pricing and skew readings. These spikes are driven by gamma positioning and short-covering, not fundamental information. Enter spreads AFTER the pre-event spike resolves, not before.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread
When directional thesis is correct but the move occurs after option expiry, the trade is a technical win but a strategic loss. The capital is locked up during the delayed reaction period, and theta decay continues. For binary operational events, consider selling the put spread leg to finance a longer-dated call/put if the directional conviction is high but timing is uncertain.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread
In commodity-linked names with institutional holders, put skew is often driven by hedging activity (portfolio insurance, commodity price exposure) rather than directional bearishness. Elevated put skew in these names should be discounted as a signal and treated as structural, not informational.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread
For pre-revenue mining companies, the key earnings catalyst is operational progress (mine start-up, production targets, permitting status), not EPS. EPS misses are expected and priced in. Market reaction is driven by whether operational milestones are met or delayed, not financial performance. Score catalysts based on operational milestone significance, not EPS surprise potential.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread
When RSI(14) > 80 AND the stock has run up >40% in 180 days entering earnings, the probability of mean-reversion is high regardless of implied move richness. The direction_evidence score should be reduced by at least 5 points, and the trade should be avoided unless there is a strong contrarian catalyst.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call
If the options chain has null bid/ask data across all strikes, the implied move calculation is unreliable. The scout should flag this as a fatal flaw and reject the trade — do not proceed with assumed implied move metrics.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call
In cybersecurity names during AI-capex peaks, executive sales (even Rule 10b5-1) at prices significantly below current spot should be weighted more heavily than analyst upgrades. Insiders are closer to the data and may be positioning for a plateau.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call
Historical EPS beats do not guarantee positive stock reaction if the stock has already run up into the event. The 'beat' is priced in, and any 'in-line' result is a disappointment. The catalyst_was_real score should be reduced when the pre-event run-up exceeds 20%.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call
RSI(14) > 80 is a valid overbought signal that should reduce the technical_was_useful score and trigger a mean-reversion warning. In the scoring methodology, technical signals should not be dismissed as 'Tier 3 confirmation' when they indicate extreme conditions.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call