OM · Outset Medical, Inc. — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on OM. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About OM · Outset Medical, Inc.
Outset Medical, Inc., a medical technology company, engages in the development of a hemodialysis system for hemodialysis in the United States. The company provides Tablo Hemodialysis System, a compact console with integrated water purification, on-demand dialysate production, and software and connectivity capabilities; and manufactures, supports, and distributes for Tablo console, Tablo cartridge, and other consumables. It also offers Tablo Data Ecosystem, including TabloHub, a consumer-facing portal; MyTablo, a patient-facing portal; and TabloDash, an internal data analytics platform. The company was formerly known as Home Dialysis Plus, Ltd. and changed its name to Outset Medical, Inc. in January 2015. Outset Medical, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Live Quote
SELL (score -3) · 12-1 mom -78.7% · RSI 54.1 · above_50_only · -77.2% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (3 analysts: low $6.00 / mean $7.67 / high $10.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
Outset Medical (OM) is a pre-revenue-profitability medtech company whose Tablo Hemodialysis System has FDA clearance across acute and home settings. The investigation trigger was a cluster of 3 Form 4 filings in 14 days — but detailed review shows the actual transactions were sell-to-cover events by CEO Trigg, CFO Nash, and GC Brottem for tax withholding on RSU vestings (code S = discretionary sale to cover taxes). A separate BML Investment Partners filing revealed open-market share accumulation via put-option assignment (accumulating 294,500 shares at $5 between May 8-11), representing a genuine bullish insider signal from a ~10% owner/director. The stock has collapsed ~82% from its 52-week high of ~$22 to $3.86 on declining revenue (-6% YoY in Q1 2026) and persistent losses, despite gross margin improvement toward 50%. Active securities litigation (motion to dismiss partially granted March 2026), customer capital deferrals tied to macro pressures, and tariffs risk on Mexico manufacturing all weigh as anti-signals. No near-term catalyst exists; next earnings are Aug 5, 2026.
Lessons Referencing This Ticker
For zero-revenue resource companies, earnings reports are operational milestone updates, not financial performance events. Market reaction is typically delayed 3-7 days as analysts digest operational details (mine start-up, production targets, inventory decisions). Use longer-dated options (7-14 DTE) or calendar spreads instead of tight DTE spreads that expire before the full reaction.
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In low-float, high-short-interest commodity names (~10%+ shorts), pre-earnings positioning can cause large directional spikes (10-15%) that distort entry pricing and skew readings. These spikes are driven by gamma positioning and short-covering, not fundamental information. Enter spreads AFTER the pre-event spike resolves, not before.
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In commodity-linked names with institutional holders, put skew is often driven by hedging activity (portfolio insurance, commodity price exposure) rather than directional bearishness. Elevated put skew in these names should be discounted as a signal and treated as structural, not informational.
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For pre-revenue mining companies, the key earnings catalyst is operational progress (mine start-up, production targets, permitting status), not EPS. EPS misses are expected and priced in. Market reaction is driven by whether operational milestones are met or delayed, not financial performance. Score catalysts based on operational milestone significance, not EPS surprise potential.
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When RSI(14) > 80 AND the stock has run up >40% in 180 days entering earnings, the probability of mean-reversion is high regardless of implied move richness. The direction_evidence score should be reduced by at least 5 points, and the trade should be avoided unless there is a strong contrarian catalyst.
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If the options chain has null bid/ask data across all strikes, the implied move calculation is unreliable. The scout should flag this as a fatal flaw and reject the trade — do not proceed with assumed implied move metrics.
extracted Jun 19, 2026 from 2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call
In cybersecurity names during AI-capex peaks, executive sales (even Rule 10b5-1) at prices significantly below current spot should be weighted more heavily than analyst upgrades. Insiders are closer to the data and may be positioning for a plateau.
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Historical EPS beats do not guarantee positive stock reaction if the stock has already run up into the event. The 'beat' is priced in, and any 'in-line' result is a disappointment. The catalyst_was_real score should be reduced when the pre-event run-up exceeds 20%.
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