FLR · Fluor Corporation — research history

Fluor is a $7.5B market cap EPC firm with ~$25.7B in backlog (81% reimbursable) serving energy, infrastructure, mining, data centers and U.S. government clients. Q1 2026 was a significant earnings miss ($0.14 actual vs $0.61 estimate; -77%) driven by a Mission Solutions court charge ($96M), cost growth on a large Urban Solutions mining JV, and overall margin compression as new project ramps offset completed-project revenue roll-offs. The company is actively monetizing its remaining NuScale stake (~$473M received in April 2026, ~$2.43B total since Sept 2025). Smart money shows zero open-market insider purchases — all recent Form 4 activity consists of tax withholding on RSU vesting (code F) and scheduled 10b5-1 sales at $45.61 (Alvin Collins). No CEO/CFO buying cluster exists in the last 90 days. The stock has recovered from its post-Q1-selloff lows but remains ~7% below 52-week high. Forward P/E of 16.3x is reasonable for an EPC name with this backlog quality, but not cheap relative to historical multiples or sector. IV elevated at 52-56%, and Q2 earnings on July 31 represent the only near-term catalyst — but analyst estimates are extremely low-balled ($0.70) after Q1's disaster, making the beat/sell dynamic uncertain.

IV rank compressed/null (<40 threshold for premium edge). Quality floor fails (<15) due to negative TTM FCF and revenue decline anti-signals. Skip.

Fluor is a large-cap engineering & construction firm (~$6.9B) with positive ROE, manageable debt, and recent LNG Canada LNTP catalyst. The stock trades above both its 50DMA (47.8) and 200DMA (45.44), with RSI at 58 — neutral-zone bullish. Q1 EPS missed badly (-77% vs est), but the forward growth narrative holds. Earnings for Q2 are scheduled 2026-07-31, which falls AFTER the July 17 expiry candidate by ~14 days — clean of IV crush risk. The queue data showed a compelling $45 put at $1.25 premium (42 DTE) on July 17, OI 1177, annualized yield ~24%. This strike is ~10% OTM and only +0.88% vs the 200DMA, providing minimal margin of safety — but if assigned, it yields a reasonable basis on what remains fundamentally sound infrastructure name. The IV context for puts at $45 July-17 shows ~6.25% realized movement equivalent, which appears elevated relative to FLR's historical norms in this low-rate environment.

Fluor Corporation is an engineering & construction EPC firm ($6.4B market cap) with mixed fundamentals — positive ROIC (10%) and strong backlog visibility from nuclear/SAF projects, but negative gross margins and a Q1 EPS surprise of -77% that raises execution concerns. The wheel-hunter flagged the $40 Jul-17 put at ~$1 premium with 11.8% OTM distance from spot ($45.20) — this translates to only 2.22% yield over 45 DTE, or ~18% annualized on surface math. However, IV is extremely compressed: the ATM IV sits around 6.25%, far below the sector threshold of 40th percentile needed for a genuine premium edge. More critically, earnings are scheduled July 31 — inside every realistic expiry window in the 25-50 DTE band. Any CSP sold on or before June 18 (16 DTE) expires just before earnings; anything at 30+ DTE carries material IV crush risk from a known catalyst. Options flow shows bullish call skew ($312K net bias in calls), which is consistent with speculative interest, not premium selling conditions. The bid-ask spread data returning all zeros for every strike confirms illiquid, non-market-maker-affiliated pricing — making the $1 put premium untrustworthy and the position unhedgeable at fair value. FLR fails on IV rank, earnings timing, and liquidity.

Material litigation overhang (securities class action + False Claims Act exposure) and recent accounting/earnings deterioration trigger anti-signal gates, while the absence of insider buying and sharply declining new awards undermine any income or long thesis.

Fluor is an EPC and project management firm with ~$15B in annual revenue across Urban Solutions, Energy Solutions, and Mission Solutions. The stock is ~17% off its 52-week high following a catastrophic Q1 2026 earnings miss (EPS $0.14 vs. $0.61 estimate; -77% surprise) driven by a $96M legal charge on a False Claims Act ruling, $37M mining project cost overrun, and an awards decline of 54% YoY. Management also tightened the full-year guidance range. No open-market insider cash purchases were detected in the past 90 days — director grants are RSU vesting (zero-cost) and Alvin Collins III (Group President) actually sold ~$712K at $45.62 under a 10b5-1 plan. The bull-side options flow is real but appears speculative rather than informed: two OTM call whale blocks on July 17 with strong directional bias, but the underlying fundamentals have deteriorated sharply. Forward P/E of 14.3x isn't cheap enough to constitute mispricing given earnings instability and litigation overhang.

Fluor just experienced an catastrophic earnings miss (Q1 FY2026 EPS $0.14 vs $0.62 est., -79% surprise) on May 8, 2026, cratering the stock ~20% in a single session from ~$54 to $43 — its worst one-day move in recent memory. The company lowered full-year guidance at the top end and flagged project timing issues dragging Energy Solutions. Separately, Fluor completed its NuScale exit ($2.43B total proceeds since Sept 2025), shifted toward capital-light reimbursable contracts, and has a new consulting arrangement with former Group President Mark Fields at $670/hr. No open-market insider purchases were detected — the Form 4 filings reviewed showed only RSU vest transactions (not cash purchases). The stock now trades below both its 50DMA and 200DMA, RSI is oversold at ~35 but still falling, and there are no near-term catalysts to re-rate the name positively within a 3-12 month window. There is nothing here that satisfies all three pillars of the Catalyst-Edge methodology.