CDNA · CareDx, Inc. — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on CDNA. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About CDNA · CareDx, Inc.
CareDx, Inc. provides solutions for improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health in the United States and internationally. The company provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression profiling solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. It also offers HeartCare, which provides information about distinct biological processes, such as immune quiescence, active injury, acute cellular rejection, and antibody mediated rejection; HistoMap Kidney, a solution that identifies allograft rejection and type of rejection in kidney transplant biopsy tissue; and AlloHeme, a monitoring test that predicts relapse in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes. In addition, the company provides QTYPE that enables precision in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing; Olerup SSP, which is used to type HLA alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. Further, it offers AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; Allocell, a solution that monitors the pharmacokinetics of engraftment and persistence of cells for patients who have received allogeneic cell therapy; and XynQAPI, MedActionPlan, CareDx pharmacy, AlloHome, and HLA Data Systems software solutions. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.
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BUY (score +7) · 12-1 mom 14.2% · RSI 62.6 · above_both · -4.0% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (5 analysts: low $21.00 / mean $25.80 / high $28.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
CareDx is a precision medicine company focused on transplant diagnostics (kidney, heart, lung dd-cfDNA; gene expression profiling). The investigation was triggered by 7 Form 4 filings in 14 days — but upon reading each filing, the cluster consists entirely of RSU vesting grants (A-code acquisitions at $0) and pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 sales. There are zero open-market discretionary purchases from CEO/CFO or any director. The stock is at a 52-week high ($26.18), has risen ~78% YTD, trades at forward P/E of ~23x with an extreme EV/EBITDA of ~448x given near-zero profitability. Q1 2026 delivered a massive earnings beat (+161% EPS surprise) driven by 39% revenue growth, and the company announced two portfolio-transforming events: acquisition of Naveris (up to $260M oncology MRD) and divestiture of the Lab Products business. Multiple catalysts exist over the next 3-12 months but valuation is stretched for a long-only asymmetric entry.
Score falls well below the publish threshold due to zero insider buying, bearish options skew, lack of valuation discount, and active anti-signal gates (litigation, reimbursement concentration). With the stock up 58% YTD and insider selling at highs, the risk/reward for any structure is unfavorable.
CareDx reported a standout Q1 2026 with +39% YoY revenue growth and EPS of $0.34 vs $0.13 estimate (+162% beat), alongside an announced Naveris oncology acquisition (up to $260M) and lab products divestiture — all positive catalysts for the shares which are up ~58% YTD off a 52-week low. However, the triggering Form 4 cluster is almost entirely routine annual RSU grants to directors at $0 cost basis; there were NO open-market cash purchases by insiders. The sole executive transaction was CEO John Hanna's scheduled sell of ~22K shares (~$528K) via pre-existing 10b5-1 plan — not bullish signaling. Options flow shows a bearish put/call ratio of 3.67:1 and heavy protective positioning, suggesting informed players are hedging rather than betting on continued upside. At forward P/E ~20x with the stock near its 52-week high ($24.85) after a strong run, the risk/reward for an asymmetric long is poor.