BBAI · BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. — research history
Complete research history. Every dossier, draft, kill, publish, and lesson the system has produced on BBAI. Public so users can audit, AI can re-reference. Live price refreshes every 60s.
About BBAI · BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. provides artificial intelligence-powered decision intelligence solutions for national security, supply chain management, and digital identity markets. It offers supply chain and logistics solutions, such as Data Conflation at Scale, which offers a view of operations enabling real-time tracking of inventory and facilitating predictive analytics to optimize functions, including routes and delivery times; Discrete Event Simulation, a course of action analysis and digital twin solution; and Next-Gen Decision Support solution for macroeconomic and geopolitical forecasting. The company also provides cybersecurity solutions, such as artificial intelligence (AI)-powered/machine-accelerated binary analysis, cyber-physical systems vulnerability testing and evaluation, vulnerability assessment as a service, and specialized services for the department of defense and intelligence community; and autonomous systems solutions, AI/machine learning (ML) decision intelligence solutions, and AI orchestration as a service, as well as specialized consulting services. In addition, it offers digital identity services comprising security solutions specializing in customized digital identity, biometrics, AI/ML, and advanced analytics software and solutions for global trade, travel, and digital identity industries; and Ask Sage Platform, a generative AI platform for secure AI deployment, orchestration, and agentic capabilities across defense, intelligence, and other highly regulated environments. The company was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.
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SELL (score -8) · 12-1 mom -19.7% · RSI 39.5 · below_both · -57.7% from high
Targets blend Wall Street consensus (3 analysts: low $5.00 / mean $5.33 / high $6.00) with chart-derived floors and ceilings.
1-Year Chart · RSI · MACD
Research Timeline
Newest first. Each entry shows what stage produced it, the verdict/decision, and the reasoning.
BBAI is a deeply unprofitable AI decision-intelligence firm serving defense/government customers with ~$127M TTM revenue (flat YoY). The company just completed two acquisitions (Ask Sage — FedRAMP-authorized genAI platform for defense/intelligence, and CargoSeer — cargo inspection AI) in late 2025/early 2026. It has a massive cash hoard ($461M+), but is burning ~$24-56M/quarter operationally with no clear path to profitability visible from public disclosures. The June 9, 2026 annual meeting approved doubling the authorized share count from 500M to 1B — signaling potential future dilution via ATM offerings or convertible note conversions. No open-market insider purchases were identified in the lookback window; recent Form 4 activity is exclusively tax-withholding disposals (CFO) and equity compensation settlements. Options flow is heavily put-skewed at a 3.49:1 P/C ratio with massive OTM puts at strikes $3 and $2.5 indicating bearish hedging rather than directional speculation. No asymmetric long thesis survives these data points.
BBAI is a small-cap defense AI contractor ($2.1B market cap) that has lost ~53% from its 52-week high and trades near the middle of its annual range at $4.38. The company reported Q1 2026 with modest revenue growth (+2.5% beat), expanding gross margins (34%), and a backlog expansion to $281.9M — but continues burning cash ($57M net loss) with deeply negative free cash flow. There are NO insider open-market purchases in the past 90 days; all Form 4s reviewed were tax withholding events on RSU vesting or stock compensation, not discretionary buys. The authorized share count was doubled to 1B via shareholder vote (April 2026 reconvened meeting), confirming a dilutive capital structure that has seen multiple warrant and convertible note exercises. Two OTM call whale blocks on the June expiry ($5 and $6 strikes) represent genuine bullish directional flow, but they sit atop an unprofitable company with no earnings power, ~30% short interest, heavy customer concentration risk (largest classified contract worth >$53M), and a pattern of equity dilution. The options signal is real; the underlying fundamental case does not support it as a standalone long.
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