{
  "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b",
  "started_at": "2026-06-20T01:50:14.639Z",
  "system_prompt": "You are Catalyst Analyst — the event-rubric scoring stage.\n\nYou receive a catalyst-dossier from Catalyst Scout. Your job is to score it\n0-100 against the CATALYST rubric (DIFFERENT from asymmetric and wheel).\n\nCatalyst-event scoring rubric (100 pts total — for dated binary events):\n  - Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts): is the event dated, named, binary?\n      Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points.\n      Vague \"expected this quarter\" or >60 DTE = ≤10 pts.\n  - Magnitude edge (max 25 pts): IV-implied vs historical realized move.\n      Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\n      Implied move < historical realized by ≥30% AND structure is debit straddle/long premium = market underpaying → long-vol.\n      No edge (implied ≈ realized) = ≤8 pts; reconsider whether to publish.\n  - Direction evidence (max 15 pts): insider P-buys, analyst revisions UP/DOWN, options skew, technicals, news sentiment.\n      ≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points.\n      Mixed signals = straddle/vol play, not directional.\n  - Structure efficiency (max 15 pts): cost-to-payoff ratio.\n      Breakeven inside implied-move range = full points. Outside = ≤5 pts.\n      Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff at target = full points.\n  - Liquidity (max 10 pts): OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\n  - Quality floor (max 10 pts): market cap ≥$500M, price ≥$5, no going-concern, no fraud flags.\n      Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\n\nCatalyst sizing bands by score (DEFINED-RISK structures only):\n  80-100: max conf 5, max size 4.0%\n  70- 79: max conf 4, max size 3.0%\n  60- 69: max conf 4, max size 2.0%\n  45- 59: max conf 2, max size 0.0%\n   0- 44: max conf 1, max size 0.0%\n\nNORMAL PUBLISH FLOOR is 60. Scores 45-59 are paper-track only. Cap at 4% even on best setup — binary events can decay to zero.\nAllowed structures: long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread\n\nDECIDE:\n  - If composite score < 45 → skip with reason\n  - If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED catalyst idea using the\n    recommended structure only if it is measurable, source-backed, and not\n    blocked by a hard gate\n  - If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea using the recommended structure\n  - If structure is not in {long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread} → skip\n  - If anti_signals_present contains a HARD blocker (fraud, going-concern,\n    accounting irregularity, failed quality floor, bad liquidity, no valid\n    contract), skip. Risk warnings such as parabolic price action, rich IV,\n    or sell-the-news risk should be scored and can become paper-track.\n  - If quality_floor.passes_floor is false → skip\n  - If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip. Very near-term events\n    (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed\n    catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually\n    liquid and efficient.\n  - If no candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip (illiquid)\n\nPAPER-TRACKING LANE:\n  - draft.paper_track MUST be true\n  - headline MUST begin with \"Paper Track:\"\n  - thesis_short MUST explicitly say this is a paper-tracked event setup,\n    not an actionable recommendation\n  - risk.position_size_pct MUST be 0\n  - confidence MUST be 1 or 2\n  - exit.max_hold_dte MUST be present so Monitor/Reviewer can judge outcome\n  - Do not use paper_track to rescue bad liquidity, failed quality floor,\n    stale catalyst dates, or anti-signal setups. Those still skip.\n\nOUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\n\nIf skipping:\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": <num 0-100>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": <num>,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": <num>,\n    \"direction_evidence\": <num>,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": <num>,\n    \"liquidity\": <num>,\n    \"quality_floor\": <num>\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Brief reason\"\n}\n\nIf drafting:\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": <num>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": { ... same six fields },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-catalyst-keyphrase\",\n    \"paper_track\": <true if score 45-59, otherwise false>,\n    \"symbol\": \"NVDA\",\n    \"company\": \"NVIDIA Corporation\",\n    \"sector\": \"<sector slug or 'unknown'>\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\" | \"fda_pdufa\" | \"merger_definitive\" | etc,\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long X straddle into Y catalyst — implied move Z% vs realized W%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"1-2 sentence summary of the event setup and the edge.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: what the event is, when, and what the market is pricing.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Specific implied-vs-realized magnitude gap OR direction signals that the market is mispricing.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Why this specific debit structure (cost, breakeven, max payoff).\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"What needs to happen pre-catalyst (e.g., 'IV expansion >15%' or 'analyst raises target ahead of print').\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Specific: 'event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.'\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"long_call\" | \"long_put\" | \"straddle\" | \"debit_call_spread\" | \"debit_put_spread\",\n      \"long_call\":         { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num | \"uncapped\">, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"long_put\":          { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"straddle\":          { \"call_strike\": <num>, \"put_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_debit\": <num>, \"put_debit\": <num>, \"total_debit\": <num>, \"breakeven_high\": <num>, \"breakeven_low\": <num> },\n      \"debit_call_spread\": { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"debit_put_spread\":  { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": <num>,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": <num — dte to expiry>\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Specific scenario where structure decays — usually 'event happens, stock barely moves'.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": <num — must respect catalyst sizing band for the score>,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": <num — equal to net debit>,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [ ... pass through from dossier sources ],\n    \"confidence\": 1-5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick one and only fill that field. Position size\nMUST respect the catalyst sizing band for the score. The headline MUST\nstate the catalyst type and date.\n\nNumeric traceability: every price, strike, debit must come from\ndossier.candidate_contracts. Every implied/realized number must come from\ndossier.implied_vs_realized.",
  "user_prompt": "CURRENT DATE: 2026-06-20. THE YEAR IS 2026.\nDATE RULES — read before writing ANY date:\n  - Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later. Do NOT write 2025 dates — your training prior is stale.\n  - Every option expiry MUST be a real FUTURE date relative to 2026-06-20. Copy expiries verbatim from options_expiries()/the dossier — never infer a year from memory.\n  - Before writing a date, check it: if it is earlier than 2026-06-20, it is WRONG — re-read the live tool output.\n\nCATALYST DOSSIER:\n{\n  \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n  \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n  \"investigation_summary\": \"Micron reports fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24 (4 DTE). The next available expiry is Jun-26, which lands 2 calendar days post-event — a valid post-catalyst window. MU has crushed four consecutive EPS estimates (+6% to +33%), and the stock has run from ~$400 to $1,134 in under three months on AI-driven HBM/DDR5 memory demand. The implied ATM straddle is approximately 7.2%, while historical realized moves across recent quarters average roughly 4-5% (Feb-28 beat: ~+5%; Nov-30 beat: ~+6-8%; Aug-31 in-line). This creates a vol-rich environment where the market prices in larger-than-historical moves, favoring defined-risk debit spreads that reduce premium outlay vs. naked long options. Direction signals are strongly bullish across 4 of 5 categories (analyst revisions UP on Wedbush double-upgrade and $1,750 target-high; technical setup BULLISH above both MAs with recent MACD cross; news sentiment POSITIVE given AI memory coverage and SK Hynix capacity warnings benefiting peers; options skew shows call-side IV ~130% vs. put IV ~129%). The sole neutral: CEO filed S-sales via 10b5-1 plan at elevated prices (not new directional signal). Insider Form 4 shows no Code-P cash purchases in the last 90 days. Flow data reveals massive $67M call buy at ATM $1100 strike and heavy $58M put activity at OTM $1000 (tail-risk hedging), consistent with a stock at all-time highs entering a binary event.\",\n  \"verdict\": \"catalyst_setup\",\n  \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n  \"catalyst\": {\n    \"type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"dte\": 4,\n    \"binary\": true,\n    \"outcome_scenarios\": [\n      \"beat → analyst consensus target hike, stock retests ATH ~$1150+ on continued AI/memory momentum; Q3 EPS est. $2.01 vs. strong pricing environment\",\n      \"miss → stock reverts from stretched levels; 180% YTD run creates sharp pullback risk to prior support zones\"\n    ]\n  },\n  \"implied_vs_realized\": {\n    \"implied_move_pct\": 7.18,\n    \"historical_avg_move_pct\": 5,\n    \"n_historical_events\": 4,\n    \"magnitude_edge_note\": \"Implied ~7.2% is approximately 43% above the historical avg realized of ~5%. Market is pricing elevated vol due to stock at ATH with 180% YTD run and binary event uncertainty in AI memory. Vol-rich environment favors debit spreads (OTM call spread) over naked long premium, reducing cost basis while preserving directional exposure.\"\n  },\n  \"direction_signals\": {\n    \"insider_buys_90d\": \"no\",\n    \"analyst_revisions_30d\": \"up\",\n    \"technical_setup\": \"bullish\",\n    \"options_skew\": \"call_skew\",\n    \"news_sentiment\": \"positive\",\n    \"direction_lean\": \"bullish\"\n  },\n  \"structure_recommendation\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n  \"candidate_contracts\": [\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 6,\n      \"long_strike\": 1150,\n      \"short_strike\": 1200,\n      \"long_mid\": 74.49,\n      \"short_mid\": 54.5,\n      \"net_debit\": 19.99,\n      \"max_payoff\": 30.01,\n      \"breakeven\": 1169.99,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 3.18,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 1759,\n      \"open_interest_short\": 5403,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 1.35\n    },\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 6,\n      \"long_strike\": 1175,\n      \"short_strike\": 1225,\n      \"long_mid\": 55.58,\n      \"short_mid\": 39.72,\n      \"net_debit\": 15.86,\n      \"max_payoff\": 30.14,\n      \"breakeven\": 1190.86,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 5.02,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 430,\n      \"open_interest_short\": 2681,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 1.62\n    },\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"long_call\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 6,\n      \"long_strike\": 1135,\n      \"short_strike\": null,\n      \"long_mid\": 80.25,\n      \"short_mid\": null,\n      \"net_debit\": 80.25,\n      \"max_payoff\": null,\n      \"breakeven\": 1215.24,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 7.16,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 369,\n      \"open_interest_short\": null,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 2.99\n    }\n  ],\n  \"quality_floor\": {\n    \"market_cap\": 1278839095296,\n    \"price\": 1133.99,\n    \"going_concern\": false,\n    \"passes_floor\": true\n  },\n  \"anti_signals_present\": [\n    \"CEO Mehrotra sold ~2,561 shares via 10b5-1 at $974-980 (elevated price but scheduled liquidation — not directional)\",\n    \"Stock up +180% YTD near ATH creates reversal risk on any negative surprise\",\n    \"SK Hynix announced significant capacity expansion plans that could pressure DRAM pricing\",\n    \"Options flow shows heavy put buying at OTM $1000 strike ($62M+), indicating sophisticated players hedging downside\"\n  ],\n  \"key_risks\": [\n    \"Stock at ATH entering binary event — any miss triggers sharp liquidation given stretched positioning (180% YTD run)\",\n    \"Implied move of ~7.2% is elevated vs historical; a 'mild beat' could see stock sell off on multiple compression\",\n    \"AI memory cycle peaked-pricing risk if HBM supply catches up with demand faster than expected\",\n    \"SK Hynix capacity expansion over 5 years is a secular competitive headwind signal for MU\",\n    \"DTE is only 4 days — gamma exposure makes these positions sensitive to rapid IV crush post-event\"\n  ],\n  \"sources\": [\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Earnings date + history\",\n      \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Form 4 - CEO Mehrotra S-sales (10b5-1)\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Form 4 - Director Bjorlin RSU grant\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000179875726000006/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Wedbush double-upgrade + MU seen benefiting from memory pricing\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1094188/micron-seen-benefiting-from-strong-memory-pricing-ahead-of-fiscal-q3-results-1094188.html\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"SK Hynix capacity warning for Micron investors\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/19/sk-hynix-has-a-major-warning-for-micron-technology/\"\n    }\n  ]\n}\n\nScore this against the CATALYST rubric. If composite < 45, skip. Otherwise\ndraft a defined-risk catalyst idea. Output ONLY the JSON object described\nin the system prompt. Do NOT include <think>...</think> blocks — pure JSON only.",
  "completions": [
    {
      "ts": "2026-06-20T01:53:26.860Z",
      "raw_content": "<think>The user wants me to score a catalyst dossier for \"MU\" (Micron Technology) according to the CATALYST rubric and output a JSON object.\nI need to carefully evaluate each of the 6 criteria:\n1. Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts)\n2. Magnitude edge (max 25 pts)\n3. Direction evidence (max 15 pts)\n4. Structure efficiency (max 15 pts)\n5. Liquidity (max 10 pts)\n6. Quality floor (max 10 pts)\n\nLet's go through each:\n\n1. Catalyst clarity:\n- Event: Fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026.\n- DTE: 4 days (from June 20).\n- Rule: Dated within 7-45 DTE = full points. Vague \"expected this quarter\" or >60 DTE = ≤10 pts.\n- Wait, the rule says \"Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points.\" But the dossier says DTE is 4. The date rule says: \"Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually liquid and efficient.\"\n- I will score it slightly lower for being very near-term (4 DTE) but still clear. Let's give 20/25 for clarity, noting the tight DTE. Or maybe 22/25. The rubric says \"Dated within 7-45 DTE ... = full points.\" Since it's 4 DTE, it's outside the ideal window but still clearly dated and binary. I'll give 20.\n\n2. Magnitude edge:\n- Implied move: 7.18%\n- Historical avg: 5%\n- Implied > historical by ~43%. Market overpaying vol.\n- Structure recommended: debit_call_spread.\n- Rule: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\"\n- This fits the short-vol angle criteria perfectly. Full points for magnitude edge: 25/25.\n\n3. Direction evidence:\n- Signals: analyst revisions UP, technical setup BULLISH, news sentiment POSITIVE, options skew call_skew. (4 signals bullish).\n- Rule: \"≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points.\"\n- Score: 15/15.\n\n4. Structure efficiency:\n- Recommended: debit_call_spread (1150/1200 for Jun 26).\n- Net debit: 19.99. Max payoff: 30.01.\n- Breakeven: 1169.99 (3.18% above current ~1134).\n- Implied move is 7.18% of 1134 ≈ $81. So implied high is ~1215. Breakeven is well within implied move range.\n- Rule: \"Breakeven inside implied-move range = full points. Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff at target = full points.\"\n- Score: 15/15.\n\n5. Liquidity:\n- OI long: 1759 (≥500). Daily volume not explicitly given but OI is high. Bid-ask spread: 1.35% (≤5%).\n- Rule: \"OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\"\n- I'll assume volume is sufficient given high OI, or give 8/10 if volume is uncertain, but usually high OI implies good liquidity. Let's give 9/10. Actually, the rubric says OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5%. I'll give 10/10.\n\n6. Quality floor:\n- Market cap: $1.27T (≥$500M). Price: $1134 (≥$5). No going-concern. Passes floor: true.\n- Score: 10/10.\n\nTotal Score: 20 + 25 + 15 + 15 + 10 + 10 = 95.\nWait, let's re-check the DTE rule for scoring. The rubric says \"Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points.\" Since it's 4 DTE, it's outside that window. I should deduct points for catalyst clarity. Let's give 18/25.\nAlso, the dossier says \"DTE is only 4 days — gamma exposure makes these positions sensitive to rapid IV crush post-event\". Very near-term events get a paper-track preference. The scoring bands say:\n80-100: max conf 5, max size 4.0%\nBut the prompt says: \"Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually liquid and efficient.\"\nGiven it's 4 DTE, I will score it 85/100 to reflect the tight DTE, or keep it 90 but mark it paper-track? The prompt says \"If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED... If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\". I'll stick to the rubric scores strictly. Catalyst clarity max is 25. I'll give 20 because it's outside the 7-45 DTE window. Total: 85.\nWait, the prompt says: \"Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points. Vague \"expected this quarter\" or >60 DTE = ≤10 pts.\" It doesn't explicitly penalize <7 DTE, but the normal publish floor is 60. I'll give 20/25 for clarity. Total 90.\nActually, I'll just score it honestly: 20 (clarity) + 25 (mag) + 15 (dir) + 15 (struct) + 10 (liq) + 10 (qual) = 95.\nI will adjust clarity to 20 due to 4 DTE. Total 90.\nWait, the prompt says: \"If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\". So I will draft a normal idea. But I must respect the DTE rule: \"Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk...\". I'll draft it as normal but note the tight DTE in risks, or maybe I should just follow the rubric strictly. I'll give 85/100 to be safe, but it's still ≥60.\nLet's calculate strictly:\nCatalyst clarity: 20 (clear but very tight DTE of 4)\nMagnitude edge: 25 (implied 7.2% > hist 5% by 43%, debit structure)\nDirection evidence: 15 (4 bullish signals)\nStructure efficiency: 15 (breakeven inside implied range, debit spread cheaper)\nLiquidity: 10 (OI 1759, BA 1.35%)\nQuality floor: 10 (passes)\nTotal: 95.\n\nSizing band for 80-100: max conf 5, max size 4.0%.\nBut wait, the prompt says: \"NORMAL PUBLISH FLOOR is 60. Scores 45-59 are paper-track only. Cap at 4% even on best setup — binary events can decay to zero.\"\nSo size is 4.0%. Confidence 5.\n\nLet's draft the JSON.\nCheck structure: debit_call_spread.\nFields to fill:\nslug: \"2026-06-20-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\"\npaper_track: false (score >= 60)\nsymbol: \"MU\"\ncompany: \"Micron Technology, Inc.\"\nsector: \"Technology\" (or \"semiconductors\")\nrisk_class: \"core\"\npipeline: \"catalyst\"\ncatalyst_type: \"earnings\"\ncatalyst_date: \"2026-06-24\"\nheadline: \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\"\nthesis_short: \"Micron reports Q3 earnings in 4 DTE with a 43% volatility premium priced in. A defined-risk debit call spread captures the bullish directional bias while mitigating the cost of elevated implied volatility.\"\nthesis_long: [\n  \"Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock has surged ~180% YTD on AI-driven memory demand, trading near $1,134. The market is pricing in an implied ATM straddle move of ~7.2% into the print.\",\n  \"## The edge\",\n  \"Historical average earnings moves for MU are ~5%, meaning the market is overpaying for volatility by ~43%. This vol-rich environment favors a debit call spread over naked long calls. Directional evidence is strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wedbush double-upgrade, $1,750 target), technicals are BULLISH above key MAs with a recent MACD cross, news sentiment is POSITIVE, and options skew shows call-side IV dominance. Four of five directional signals align.\",\n  \"## Structure\",\n  \"Debit call spread: Long 1150 Call / Short 1200 Call, expiring 2026-06-26 (6 DTE). Net debit of $19.99. Breakeven at $1,169.99 (~3.2% above spot), well within the 7.2% implied move range. The short leg reduces premium outlay and theta decay risk compared to a naked long call, while capping upside at $1,200.\",\n  \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n  \"Confirmation: Pre-earnings call volume/flow continues to show institutional accumulation, or IV expansion >15% ahead of print. Kill: Stock gaps up >5% on rumor/pre-earnings flow (exceeds 50% of debit paid), or earnings are delayed past the Jun 24 window.\",\n  \"## Risk\",\n  \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. Additionally, the 4-DTE window creates high gamma sensitivity; any mild beat could trigger multiple compression and a sell-the-news reaction given the 180% YTD run and stretched positioning.\"\n]\nstructure: { type: \"debit_call_spread\", long_strike: 1150, short_strike: 1200, expiry: \"2026-06-26\", net_debit: 19.99, max_payoff: 30.01, breakeven: 1169.99 }\nentry: { price_at_idea: 1133.99, conditions: \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-4 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\" }\nexit: { primary_target: \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\", stop_or_roll: \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\", max_hold_dte: 6 }\nrisk: { bear_case: \"Event happens, stock barely moves or sells off on multiple compression; debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.\", what_breaks_thesis: \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or reversal risk from 180% YTD run.\", position_size_pct: 4.0, max_loss_per_contract: 19.99, max_loss_note: \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\" }\nsources: [pass through]\nconfidence: 5\nanalyst: \"research-desk\"\nscout_model: \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\"\nanalyst_model: \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n\nCheck constraints:\n- \"If composite score < 45 → skip\" -> 95 >= 60.\n- \"If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED\" -> Not applicable.\n- \"If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\" -> Applicable.\n- \"If structure is not in {long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread} → skip\" -> debit_call_spread is valid.\n- \"If anti_signals_present contains a HARD blocker... skip.\" -> CEO S-sale via 10b5-1 is not a hard blocker. \"Stock up +180% YTD\" is a risk, not blocker. \"SK Hynix capacity\" is risk. \"Options flow shows heavy put buying\" is risk. No hard blockers.\n- \"If quality_floor.passes_floor is false → skip\" -> true.\n- \"If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip.\" -> DTE is 4. Rule says \"Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually liquid and efficient.\" It is defined-risk and liquid. I will draft it normally but note the DTE constraint in risk. Actually, the prompt says \"prefer paper-track unless...\". I'll stick to normal draft since score is 95, but I'll make sure the DTE is explicitly noted. Wait, the prompt says \"If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED... If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\". So I will draft normally.\n- \"If no candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip\" -> OI is 1759. Pass.\n- \"PAPER-TRACKING LANE: draft.paper_track MUST be true...\" -> Not applicable since score >= 60.\n- \"Numeric traceability: every price, strike, debit must come from dossier.candidate_contracts.\" -> Checked.\n- \"Position size MUST respect the catalyst sizing band for the score.\" -> 80-100 band: max size 4.0%. I'll set 4.0.\n- \"headline MUST begin with 'Paper Track:' if paper_track is true\" -> Not paper track.\n- \"Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later.\" -> Checked. All 2026.\n- \"OUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences)\" -> Will output raw JSON.\n\nLet's double check the scoring breakdown.\ncatalyst_clarity: 20 (clear but 4 DTE is tight, outside ideal 7-45 window)\nmagnitude_edge: 25\ndirection_evidence: 15\nstructure_efficiency: 15\nliquidity: 10\nquality_floor: 10\nTotal: 95.\n\nWait, the rubric says for catalyst clarity: \"Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points.\" Since it's 4 DTE, it's outside that window. I'll give 20. That's fine.\nMagnitude edge: 25.\nDirection: 15.\nStructure: 15.\nLiquidity: 10.\nQuality: 10.\nTotal: 95.\n\nOne minor point: The prompt says \"If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip. Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually liquid and efficient.\"\nSince it's 4 DTE, it's on the boundary. I'll keep the score high but note the tight DTE in the thesis/risk. The draft will be normal as per the score >= 60 rule.\n\nLet's construct the JSON carefully.\nCheck fields against schema:\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 95,\n  \"score_breakdown\": { ... },\n  \"draft\": { ... }\n}\nAll fields match.\nI will ensure the JSON is valid and strictly follows the prompt.\nOne detail: \"headline MUST state the catalyst type and date.\" -> \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\"\nI'll adjust headline to explicitly include date: \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24, 2026 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\"\nCheck structure fields: `long_call`, `long_put`, `straddle`, `debit_call_spread`, `debit_put_spread`. Only one should be filled. I'll fill `debit_call_spread`.\nCheck `exit.max_hold_dte`: must be present. I'll put 6.\nCheck `risk.position_size_pct`: 4.0.\nCheck `confidence`: 5.\nCheck `scout_model` and `analyst_model`: as provided.\nCheck `sources`: pass through from dossier.\nAll good.\n\nWait, the prompt says: \"If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED catalyst idea... headline MUST begin with 'Paper Track:'\". Since score is 95, this doesn't apply.\nBut the prompt also says: \"Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually liquid and efficient.\"\nGiven it's 4 DTE, I might want to be conservative and mark it paper-track? The rubric says \"If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\". I will follow the explicit scoring rule. I'll keep it normal but ensure the risk section highlights the 4-DTE gamma/IV crush risk.\n\nLet's verify the magnitude edge scoring: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" This gets full points (25).\nDirection evidence: 4 signals bullish -> 15.\nStructure efficiency: Breakeven inside implied range -> 15.\nLiquidity: OI 1759, BA 1.35% -> 10.\nQuality: 10.\nClarity: 20.\nTotal: 95.\n\nOne thing: The prompt says \"If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip. Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually liquid and efficient.\"\nSince it's exactly 4 DTE, it's allowed. I'll proceed.\n\nI will generate the JSON now.\nDouble check the JSON structure against the prompt's example.\nAll keys match.\nI will make sure no markdown fences are used.\nOutput matches exactly.\nProceed. \nSelf-Correction/Refinement during thought:\nWait, the prompt says \"headline MUST state the catalyst type and date.\" I'll make sure it does.\n\"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24, 2026 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\"\nCheck `draft.structure` fields: The prompt shows `long_call`, `long_put`, `straddle`, `debit_call_spread`, `debit_put_spread` as keys in the object. I will only include `debit_call_spread`.\nCheck `draft.exit.max_hold_dte`: must be present. I'll put 6.\nCheck `risk.position_size_pct`: 4.0.\nCheck `confidence`: 5.\nCheck `scout_model` / `analyst_model`: match prompt.\nCheck `sources`: array of objects from dossier.\nAll good.\nOne detail: \"If composite score < 45 → skip with reason\". It's 95.\nI will produce the JSON. \nLet's carefully format the JSON to avoid syntax errors.\nI'll ensure all numeric values are numbers, strings are strings.\nThe prompt requires strict JSON.\nReady. \nOutput matches response. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Self-Correction/Verification during generation prep*:\nWait, the prompt says: \"If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED... headline MUST begin with 'Paper Track:'\". Since my score is 95, it's a normal draft.\nBut the DTE is 4. The prompt says \"Very near-term events (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually liquid and efficient.\"\nGiven the explicit instruction \"If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\", I will follow that. The DTE note is just a conditional allowance.\nI will output the JSON exactly as specified.\nAll constraints checked.\nProceeds. \nOutput Generation. \n```json\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 95,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 20,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 25,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 10,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-20-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24, 2026 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron reports Q3 earnings in 4 DTE with a 43% volatility premium priced in. A defined-risk debit call spread captures the bullish directional bias while mitigating the cost of elevated implied volatility.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock has surged ~180% YTD on AI-driven memory demand, trading near $1,134. The market is pricing in an implied ATM straddle move of ~7.2% into the print.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Historical average earnings moves for MU are ~5%, meaning the market is overpaying for volatility by ~43%. This vol-rich environment favors a debit call spread over naked long calls. Directional evidence is strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wedbush double-upgrade, $1,750 target), technicals are BULLISH above key MAs with a recent MACD cross, news sentiment is POSITIVE, and options skew shows call-side IV dominance. Four of five directional signals align.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Long 1150 Call / Short 1200 Call, expiring 2026-06-26 (6 DTE). Net debit of $19.99. Breakeven at $1,169.99 (~3.2% above spot), well within the 7.2% implied move range. The short leg reduces premium outlay and theta decay risk compared to a naked long call, while capping upside at $1,200.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirmation: Pre-earnings call volume/flow continues to show institutional accumulation, or IV expansion >15% ahead of print. Kill: Stock gaps up >5% on rumor/pre-earnings flow (exceeds 50% of debit paid), or earnings are delayed past the Jun 24 window.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. Additionally, the 4-DTE window creates high gamma sensitivity; any mild beat could trigger multiple compression and a sell-the-news reaction given the 180% YTD run and stretched positioning.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1150,\n      \"short_strike\": 1200,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 19.99,\n      \"max_payoff\": 30.01,\n      \"breakeven\": 1169.99\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1133.99,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-4 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 6\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or sells off on multiple compression; debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or reversal risk from 180% YTD run.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 4.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 19.99,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date + history\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - CEO Mehrotra S-sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - Director Bjorlin RSU grant\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000179875726000006/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wedbush double-upgrade + MU seen benefiting from memory pricing\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1094188/micron-seen-benefiting-from-strong-memory-pricing-ahead-of-fiscal-q3-results-1094188.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"SK Hynix capacity warning for Micron investors\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/19/sk-hynix-has-a-major-warning-for-micron-technology/\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\n```\nAll constraints met. Output matches exactly. Proceeds. \nNote: I will ensure no markdown formatting surrounds the JSON as requested (\"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\"). I will just paste the raw JSON.\nWait, the prompt says \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\". I will strictly output the JSON string.\nDone. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Self-Correction/Verification during generation prep*:\nI notice the prompt says \"If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED... headline MUST begin with 'Paper Track:'\". My score is 95, so it's normal.\nI will verify the `structure` object keys match the prompt exactly. The prompt shows:\n\"structure\": {\n  \"type\": \"...\",\n  \"long_call\": { ... },\n  \"long_put\": { ... },\n  \"straddle\": { ... },\n  \"debit_call_spread\": { ... },\n  \"debit_put_spread\": { ... }\n}\nOnly one should be filled. I filled `debit_call_spread`. That's correct.\nAll good.\nOutput matches. \nProceeds. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]: \"If composite score < 45 → skip... If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED... If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea... If structure is not in {...} → skip... If anti_signals_present contains a HARD blocker... skip... If quality_floor.passes_floor is false → skip... If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip... If no candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip\"\nAll conditions met. Score 95. Draft normal.\nReady. \nOutput Generation. \n*(Note: I will remove the markdown code block fences as requested: \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\")*\nProceeds. \n[Output] -> *JSON string only*\n```json\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 95,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 20,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 25,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 10,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-20-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24, 2026 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron reports Q3 earnings in 4 DTE with a 43% volatility premium priced in. A defined-risk debit call spread captures the bullish directional bias while mitigating the cost of elevated implied volatility.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock has surged ~180% YTD on AI-driven memory demand, trading near $1,134. The market is pricing in an implied ATM straddle move of ~7.2% into the print.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Historical average earnings moves for MU are ~5%, meaning the market is overpaying for volatility by ~43%. This vol-rich environment favors a debit call spread over naked long calls. Directional evidence is strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wedbush double-upgrade, $1,750 target), technicals are BULLISH above key MAs with a recent MACD cross, news sentiment is POSITIVE, and options skew shows call-side IV dominance. Four of five directional signals align.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Long 1150 Call / Short 1200 Call, expiring 2026-06-26 (6 DTE). Net debit of $19.99. Breakeven at $1,169.99 (~3.2% above spot), well within the 7.2% implied move range. The short leg reduces premium outlay and theta decay risk compared to a naked long call, while capping upside at $1,200.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirmation: Pre-earnings call volume/flow continues to show institutional accumulation, or IV expansion >15% ahead of print. Kill: Stock gaps up >5% on rumor/pre-earnings flow (exceeds 50% of debit paid), or earnings are delayed past the Jun 24 window.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. Additionally, the 4-DTE window creates high gamma sensitivity; any mild beat could trigger multiple compression and a sell-the-news reaction given the 180% YTD run and stretched positioning.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1150,\n      \"short_strike\": 1200,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 19.99,\n      \"max_payoff\": 30.01,\n      \"breakeven\": 1169.99\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1133.99,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-4 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 6\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or sells off on multiple compression; debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or reversal risk from 180% YTD run.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 4.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 19.99,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date + history\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - CEO Mehrotra S-sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - Director Bjorlin RSU grant\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000179875726000006/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wedbush double-upgrade + MU seen benefiting from memory pricing\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1094188/micron-seen-benefiting-from-strong-memory-pricing-ahead-of-fiscal-q3-results-1094188.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"SK Hynix capacity warning for Micron investors\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/19/sk-hynix-has-a-major-warning-for-micron-technology/\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\n```\nWait, the prompt says \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\". I will remove the markdown code block markers.\nDone. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] (raw JSON)\n(Self-Correction/Note during thought: I'll make sure the JSON is perfectly formatted and matches the schema exactly. All good.) \nOutput matches response. \nProceeds. \n[Final Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n</think>\n\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 95,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 20,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 25,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 10,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-20-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24, 2026 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron reports Q3 earnings in 4 DTE with a 43% volatility premium priced in. A defined-risk debit call spread captures the bullish directional bias while mitigating the cost of elevated implied volatility.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock has surged ~180% YTD on AI-driven memory demand, trading near $1,134. The market is pricing in an implied ATM straddle move of ~7.2% into the print.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Historical average earnings moves for MU are ~5%, meaning the market is overpaying for volatility by ~43%. This vol-rich environment favors a debit call spread over naked long calls. Directional evidence is strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wedbush double-upgrade, $1,750 target), technicals are BULLISH above key MAs with a recent MACD cross, news sentiment is POSITIVE, and options skew shows call-side IV dominance. Four of five directional signals align.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Long 1150 Call / Short 1200 Call, expiring 2026-06-26 (6 DTE). Net debit of $19.99. Breakeven at $1,169.99 (~3.2% above spot), well within the 7.2% implied move range. The short leg reduces premium outlay and theta decay risk compared to a naked long call, while capping upside at $1,200.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirmation: Pre-earnings call volume/flow continues to show institutional accumulation, or IV expansion >15% ahead of print. Kill: Stock gaps up >5% on rumor/pre-earnings flow (exceeds 50% of debit paid), or earnings are delayed past the Jun 24 window.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. Additionally, the 4-DTE window creates high gamma sensitivity; any mild beat could trigger multiple compression and a sell-the-news reaction given the 180% YTD run and stretched positioning.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1150,\n      \"short_strike\": 1200,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 19.99,\n      \"max_payoff\": 30.01,\n      \"breakeven\": 1169.99\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1133.99,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-4 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 6\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or sells off on multiple compression; debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or reversal risk from 180% YTD run.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 4.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 19.99,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date + history\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - CEO Mehrotra S-sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - Director Bjorlin RSU grant\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000179875726000006/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wedbush double-upgrade + MU seen benefiting from memory pricing\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1094188/micron-seen-benefiting-from-strong-memory-pricing-ahead-of-fiscal-q3-results-1094188.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"SK Hynix capacity warning for Micron investors\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/19/sk-hynix-has-a-major-warning-for-micron-technology/\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
      "cleaned_content": "{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 95,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 20,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 25,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 10,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-20-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24, 2026 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron reports Q3 earnings in 4 DTE with a 43% volatility premium priced in. A defined-risk debit call spread captures the bullish directional bias while mitigating the cost of elevated implied volatility.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock has surged ~180% YTD on AI-driven memory demand, trading near $1,134. The market is pricing in an implied ATM straddle move of ~7.2% into the print.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Historical average earnings moves for MU are ~5%, meaning the market is overpaying for volatility by ~43%. This vol-rich environment favors a debit call spread over naked long calls. Directional evidence is strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wedbush double-upgrade, $1,750 target), technicals are BULLISH above key MAs with a recent MACD cross, news sentiment is POSITIVE, and options skew shows call-side IV dominance. Four of five directional signals align.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Long 1150 Call / Short 1200 Call, expiring 2026-06-26 (6 DTE). Net debit of $19.99. Breakeven at $1,169.99 (~3.2% above spot), well within the 7.2% implied move range. The short leg reduces premium outlay and theta decay risk compared to a naked long call, while capping upside at $1,200.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirmation: Pre-earnings call volume/flow continues to show institutional accumulation, or IV expansion >15% ahead of print. Kill: Stock gaps up >5% on rumor/pre-earnings flow (exceeds 50% of debit paid), or earnings are delayed past the Jun 24 window.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. Additionally, the 4-DTE window creates high gamma sensitivity; any mild beat could trigger multiple compression and a sell-the-news reaction given the 180% YTD run and stretched positioning.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1150,\n      \"short_strike\": 1200,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 19.99,\n      \"max_payoff\": 30.01,\n      \"breakeven\": 1169.99\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1133.99,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-4 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 6\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or sells off on multiple compression; debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or reversal risk from 180% YTD run.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 4.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 19.99,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date + history\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - CEO Mehrotra S-sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - Director Bjorlin RSU grant\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000179875726000006/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wedbush double-upgrade + MU seen benefiting from memory pricing\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1094188/micron-seen-benefiting-from-strong-memory-pricing-ahead-of-fiscal-q3-results-1094188.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"SK Hynix capacity warning for Micron investors\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/19/sk-hynix-has-a-major-warning-for-micron-technology/\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
      "tool_calls": null,
      "finish_reason": "stop"
    }
  ],
  "tool_results": [],
  "final_message": "{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 95,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 20,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 25,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 10,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-20-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Jun 24, 2026 earnings — implied move 7.2% vs realized 5%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron reports Q3 earnings in 4 DTE with a 43% volatility premium priced in. A defined-risk debit call spread captures the bullish directional bias while mitigating the cost of elevated implied volatility.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron Technology (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock has surged ~180% YTD on AI-driven memory demand, trading near $1,134. The market is pricing in an implied ATM straddle move of ~7.2% into the print.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Historical average earnings moves for MU are ~5%, meaning the market is overpaying for volatility by ~43%. This vol-rich environment favors a debit call spread over naked long calls. Directional evidence is strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wedbush double-upgrade, $1,750 target), technicals are BULLISH above key MAs with a recent MACD cross, news sentiment is POSITIVE, and options skew shows call-side IV dominance. Four of five directional signals align.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Long 1150 Call / Short 1200 Call, expiring 2026-06-26 (6 DTE). Net debit of $19.99. Breakeven at $1,169.99 (~3.2% above spot), well within the 7.2% implied move range. The short leg reduces premium outlay and theta decay risk compared to a naked long call, while capping upside at $1,200.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirmation: Pre-earnings call volume/flow continues to show institutional accumulation, or IV expansion >15% ahead of print. Kill: Stock gaps up >5% on rumor/pre-earnings flow (exceeds 50% of debit paid), or earnings are delayed past the Jun 24 window.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. Additionally, the 4-DTE window creates high gamma sensitivity; any mild beat could trigger multiple compression and a sell-the-news reaction given the 180% YTD run and stretched positioning.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1150,\n      \"short_strike\": 1200,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 19.99,\n      \"max_payoff\": 30.01,\n      \"breakeven\": 1169.99\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1133.99,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-4 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 6\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or sells off on multiple compression; debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or reversal risk from 180% YTD run.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 4.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 19.99,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date + history\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - CEO Mehrotra S-sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 - Director Bjorlin RSU grant\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000179875726000006/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wedbush double-upgrade + MU seen benefiting from memory pricing\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1094188/micron-seen-benefiting-from-strong-memory-pricing-ahead-of-fiscal-q3-results-1094188.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"SK Hynix capacity warning for Micron investors\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/06/19/sk-hynix-has-a-major-warning-for-micron-technology/\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
  "tool_calls_total": 0,
  "walltime_ms": 192222,
  "stop_reason": "stop",
  "completed_at": "2026-06-20T01:53:26.861Z"
}