{ "model": "minimax/minimax-m2.7", "started_at": "2026-06-18T13:43:06.023Z", "system_prompt": "You are Wheel Scout — the income/premium-harvest research stage.\n\nYour job is fundamentally different from regular Scout. You are NOT looking\nfor asymmetric (1400% in a year) upside. You are looking for SAFE PREMIUM:\nelevated IV that lets us collect 15%+ annualized yield by selling cash-secured\nputs, covered calls, or strangles at strikes with a real margin of safety.\n\nThe wheel strategy: sell a CSP at a strike where you'd genuinely want to own\nthe stock; if assigned, sell CC against it; collect premium either way.\nYou must verify the trade WORKS BOTH WAYS — assignment is acceptable, not\ncatastrophic.\n\nINVESTIGATION CHECKLIST (cover everything below; stop early only if a fatal\nred flag is found, in which case set verdict='no_setup'):\n\n □ price_history(ticker, 365) — find 200DMA + 52w high/low + recent support\n □ technicals(ticker) — RSI / MACD / volatility regime\n □ fundamentals(ticker) — sanity check: market cap > $1B, ROIC positive,\n no cash-burn / shelf-dilution flags. We're not deep-valuing — just\n confirming this isn't a busted IPO or going-concern.\n □ earnings(ticker) — when's the next print? Reject ANY trade with\n earnings inside the chosen expiry window (IV crush is non-trivial).\n □ edgar_recent_filings(ticker, '8-K', 5) — any material event noise?\n □ options_expiries(ticker) — find 2-3 candidate expiries between 25-50 DTE\n □ options_chain(ticker, expiry, strikes_around=10) — pull strikes around\n current price for each candidate expiry. Note IV per strike.\n □ options_flow(ticker) — aggregate flow direction (huge bullish flow on\n a CSP candidate is fine; huge bearish flow is a warning)\n □ news_for_symbol(ticker, '14d') — any pending litigation, FDA dates,\n regulatory rulings inside the expiry window?\n\nVERDICT VOCABULARY — pick exactly one:\n\n csp_setup — bullish-or-flat thesis. Sell CSP at a strike you'd\n happily own at. Annualized yield ≥15% achievable.\n cc_setup — already-long stock proxy: sell CC at strike at-or-above\n resistance. If-called return ≥12% annualized.\n strangle_setup — IV elevated on BOTH sides, range-bound technicals,\n willing to take both legs.\n no_setup — IV is compressed, premium isn't there, OR a red flag\n killed it (earnings in window, fraud flags, illiquid\n options, anti-signal). PIPELINE STOPS HERE.\n\nOUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\n\n{\n \"symbol\": \"NVDA\",\n \"company\": \"NVIDIA Corporation\",\n \"investigation_summary\": \"100-300 word executive summary of the income setup\",\n \"verdict\": \"csp_setup\" | \"cc_setup\" | \"strangle_setup\" | \"no_setup\",\n \"confidence_in_data\": 1-5,\n \"structure_recommendation\": \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\",\n \"price_context\": {\n \"last_close\": ,\n \"ma_50\": ,\n \"ma_200\": ,\n \"yhigh_52w\": ,\n \"ylow_52w\": ,\n \"from_high_pct\": ,\n \"from_200dma_pct\": ,\n \"rsi_14\": \n },\n \"iv_context\": {\n \"iv_rank_pct\": 0-100,\n \"iv_percentile_pct\": 0-100,\n \"iv_atm_30d\": ,\n \"iv_history_summary\": \"1-2 sentences on whether IV is rich/compressed vs 1y range\"\n },\n \"candidate_strikes\": [\n {\n \"structure\": \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\",\n \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\",\n \"dte\": ,\n \"strike\": | \"call_strike\": , \"put_strike\": ,\n \"premium\": ,\n \"annualized_yield_pct\": ,\n \"strike_distance_from_price_pct\": ,\n \"strike_vs_200dma_pct\": ,\n \"open_interest\": ,\n \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": ,\n \"if_assigned_basis\": // CSP only\n },\n ... (recommend top 2-3)\n ],\n \"earnings_in_window\": false | { \"date\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"in_dte\": true|false },\n \"anti_signals_present\": [],\n \"competitive_landscape\": \"1-3 sentences on the sector/peers\",\n \"key_risks\": [\"...\"],\n \"sources\": [{\"label\":\"...\",\"url\":\"https://...\"}]\n}\n\nBe ruthlessly skeptical. If IV rank < 40, set verdict='no_setup' — there\nis no premium edge. If earnings is in DTE, set verdict='no_setup'. If\noptions OI < 200 or bid-ask > 5%, the contract isn't real and you set\nverdict='no_setup'. Default outcome is no_setup; an income idea is rare\nbecause most of the time premium isn't sufficient.", "user_prompt": "CURRENT DATE: 2026-06-18. THE YEAR IS 2026.\nDATE RULES — read before writing ANY date:\n - Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later. Do NOT write 2025 dates — your training prior is stale.\n - Every option expiry MUST be a real FUTURE date relative to 2026-06-18. Copy expiries verbatim from options_expiries()/the dossier — never infer a year from memory.\n - Before writing a date, check it: if it is earlier than 2026-06-18, it is WRONG — re-read the live tool output.\n\nSYMBOL: ASTS\nINVESTIGATION TRIGGER: wheel_hunter top-3 · score 51 · IV ~13% · ann yield ~75.9% on $75 P (35d) · OI 304 · MOS vs 200DMA 6.6%\n\nQUEUE META (from wheel-hunter; verify with tools before relying on it):\n{\n \"price\": 85.69,\n \"candidate_expiry\": \"2026-07-24\",\n \"candidate_strike\": 75,\n \"candidate_premium\": 5.46,\n \"candidate_oi\": 304,\n \"candidate_iv_pct\": 12.500875,\n \"annualized_yield_pct\": 75.92000000000002,\n \"strike_otm_pct\": 12.475201307036992,\n \"mos_vs_200dma_pct\": 6.595887105562216,\n \"mos_vs_ylow_pct\": 107.87139689578716,\n \"dte\": 35\n}\n\nInvestigate this symbol for premium-collection setup. Find 25-50 DTE\nexpiries, IV-rich strikes with annualized yield ≥15% (CSP) or ≥12% (CC),\nreal liquidity, and a strike margin of safety. Reject if earnings is in\nthe window. Reject if IV rank is sub-40. Output ONLY the JSON object.\nDo NOT include ... reasoning blocks in your final message —\nthey eat the output budget and truncate the JSON.", "completions": [ { "ts": "2026-06-18T13:43:20.374Z", "raw_content": "Let me investigate ASTS (AST SpaceMobile) for premium-collection setup potential. I need to run through all the checklist items.\n\nCurrent date: 2026-06-18\n\nLet me start with multiple parallel calls:\n1. price_history - get 365 days of data for 200DMA, 52w high/low\n2. fundamentals - sanity check\n3. earnings - next print date (MUST be after expiry window)\n4. options_expiries - find available expiries in 25-50 DTE range\n5. news_for_symbol - last 14 days of news\n\nThen based on expirations, get:\n6. options_chain for candidate expiries\n7. technicals\n\n\n8. edgar_recent_filings (8-K)\n9. options_flow\n\nLet me fire off the first batch.\n\n\n\n", "cleaned_content": "", "tool_calls": [ { "type": "function", "id": "634472515", "function": { "name": "price_history", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"days\":365}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "761098698", "function": { "name": "fundamentals", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\"}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "168969058", "function": { "name": "earnings", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\"}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "205066815", "function": { "name": "options_expiries", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\"}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "405480684", "function": { "name": "news_for_symbol", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"since\":\"14d\"}" } } ], "finish_reason": "tool_calls" }, { "ts": "2026-06-18T13:45:13.387Z", "raw_content": "Let me analyze what I have so far:\n\n1. Price history: Last close $80.39, MA200 ~$80.45, 52-week high $133.09, 52-week low $36.91\n2. Fundamentals: Market cap ~$31B (very large), but deeply unprofitable with negative margins and cash burn. Revenue is tiny ($84M TTM) vs market cap.\n3. Earnings: Next earnings date is 2026-08-10 - that's AFTER July expiries! But we need to check DTE windows carefully.\n4. Options expiries available: Let me count the viable ones\n\nAvailable expiries:\n- 2026-06-18 (too short, today)\n- 2026-06-26 (8 DTE)\n\n\n- 2026-07-02 (14 DTE) \n- 2026-07-10 (22 DTE)\n- 2026-07-17 (29 DTE)\n- 2026-07-24 (36 DTE - this is the candidate!)\n- 2026-07-31 (43 DTE)\n\nThe queue shows July 24th with a $75 put strike at 12.5% IV, which translates to roughly 76% annualized yield—extremely elevated volatility conditions for this name.\n\nSince earnings fall on August 10th and the July 24th expiration lands well before that window, I need to pull the options chain data across multiple expiries to validate whether these premium levels are actually achievable.\n\n\n\n", "cleaned_content": "", "tool_calls": [ { "type": "function", "id": "888775401", "function": { "name": "technicals", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"days\":365}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "517498502", "function": { "name": "options_chain", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-24\",\"strikes_around\":15}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "422384765", "function": { "name": "options_chain", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-31\",\"strikes_around\":15}" } } ], "finish_reason": "tool_calls" }, { "ts": "2026-06-18T13:45:56.991Z", "raw_content": "Now I need to look at the options chain data carefully. Let me analyze:\n\n**Critical Issue with Options Chain Data:**\nThe bid/ask values are all showing as 0, which is very suspicious. This means we can't calculate a proper bid-ask spread. The \"last\" price appears to be the last trade price, but without real bids and asks, this contract isn't truly liquid.\n\nHowever, let me look at what IS there:\n\nFor ASTS expiring 2026-07-24 (35 DTE):\n- Spot: $80.08\n- Put strikes:\n - P70: Last=$4.01, OI=737, IV=12.5% — bid/ask = 0/0 → spread unknown but \"last\" suggests ~3.8%\n - P75: Last=$5.46, OI=304, IV=6.25% — bid/ask = 0/0 → this is what wheel-hunter was looking at\n - P80: Last=$7.50, OI=397, IV=0.1% (this can't be right)\n \nWait — the ITM puts show \"in_the_money\": true for strikes 81+. Those should have large intrinsic values and small time value. The prices like $10-16 for deep ITM puts make sense.\n\nThe real problem is that bid=0/ask=0 across all contracts means these are stale or illiquid quotes, not genuine market activity. I need to check if there's a different expiry window with better liquidity before making any recommendations.\n\n\n\n", "cleaned_content": "", "tool_calls": [ { "type": "function", "id": "596149774", "function": { "name": "options_chain", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-10\",\"strikes_around\":15}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "104985210", "function": { "name": "options_flow", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\"}" } }, { "type": "function", "id": "982215609", "function": { "name": "edgar_recent_filings", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"form\":\"8-K\",\"recent\":5}" } } ], "finish_reason": "tool_calls" }, { "ts": "2026-06-18T13:47:26.011Z", "raw_content": "Now let me analyze the data carefully before rendering a verdict.\n\n## Key Findings\n\n### Price Context (as of 2026-06-18)\n- Last close: $80.39 (from price_history) or ~$80.08 spot from options\n- MA200: $80.45 — essentially AT the 200DMA. Slightly below it.\n- MA50: $88.42 — well above current price\n- 52-week high: $133.09 (May 2026); current is down ~39% from high\n- 52-week low: $36.91 — stock is up significantly from lows\n\n\n- RSI(14): 43 — neutral territory with bearish undertones, and MACD confirming weakness\n\n### IV Analysis - THE KILLER ISSUE\nThe IV metrics are severely problematic. The put options at various strikes show IVs ranging from effectively zero to just 12.5%, which is far too low for premium selling opportunities.\n\nLooking more carefully at the chain data, I'm noticing something critical: every strike across both calls and puts has bid/ask values of exactly 0 with \"last\" prices showing what looks like synthetic or stale pricing. This suggests the options market isn't actually functioning properly — these might be illiquid contracts with no real market makers quoting bids and asks.\n\nThe spreads are effectively infinite when you can't get a real quote, which makes any trading strategy here extremely risky since there's no reliable exit price if I need to close the position.\n\nNow I'm checking the earnings date against my DTE window - August 10th falls after July 24th, so that's outside my timeframe. But that June 18th expiry has already passed, and looking at the BlueBird satellite launch news from June 17th with three satellites now in orbit is creating a potential gamma squeeze dynamic where call volume is heavily concentrated around the $83-85 strikes.\n\nThe stock's down nearly 40% from its 52-week high and sitting right at its 200-day moving average, which suggests we're in a neutral zone rather than an extreme oversold or overbought condition. The IV data showing 12-13% is suspiciously low for ASTS given the fundamental risks here - pre-revenue satellite company burning cash with massive dilution potential - so either the options data I'm seeing has gaps or there's something else going on with how these strikes are being priced.\n\nLooking at this through a wheel strategy lens, I need IV above 40 to actually collect meaningful premium, and that's simply not there. The earnings date of August 10th falls outside my window which is fine, but the real problem is that bid-ask spreads look extremely wide based on how many strikes show zero bids - these contracts aren't liquid enough to trade. Combined with the satellite launch catalyst already priced in, this setup doesn't work for selling premium.\n\nWait, let me recalculate those annualized yields more carefully using the actual numbers from the wheel hunter output and my data - I need to make sure I'm computing this right before ruling it out entirely. The wheel_hunter data appears stale—the current price is $80.39 versus their $85.69 assumption, and IV at 12-13% falls well below our minimum threshold of 40%. Combined with the extremely wide bid/ask spreads in the chain data suggesting illiquid options, this setup doesn't meet our criteria for a viable trade.\n\nNow I'm reconsidering whether those \"last\" prices in the data might be stale quotes or from an earlier snapshot rather than current market conditions. Looking at the option expiry dates, June 18 has already passed since we're on that date, so that's not an issue. But August 21 would be 63 DTE out, which falls outside our target window of 25-50 days.\n\nLet me check the July 10 and July 31 expirations more carefully—July 24 at 35 DTE looks reasonable for a CSP strike around $75 with roughly $4 in premium, though that's still below my typical IV requirements. I should focus on what actually fits our constraints rather than chasing every opportunity.\n\nThe core issue is that the options data appears unreliable—the bid-ask spreads are essentially zero across the chain, suggesting either stale or missing market data rather than actual trading conditions. Combined with an IV rank well below 40, this setup doesn't meet our criteria for a legitimate trade recommendation.\n\n\n\n", "cleaned_content": "", "tool_calls": [ { "type": "function", "id": "266229693", "function": { "name": "options_chain", "arguments": "{\"ticker\":\"ASTS\",\"expiry\":\"2026-08-21\",\"strikes_around\":15}" } } ], "finish_reason": "tool_calls" }, { "ts": "2026-06-18T13:51:57.190Z", "raw_content": "Now I have all the data needed for a thorough investigation. Let me compile everything:\n\n**PRICE CONTEXT:**\n- Last close: $80.39 (from price_history, June 18)\n- MA50: $88.42\n- MA200: $80.45\n- 52-week high: $133.09\n- 52-week low: $36.91\n- From high: (80.39 - 133.09) / 133.09 = -39.6%\n- From 200DMA: (80.39 - 80.45) / 80.45 = -0.07%\n\n\n- Stock is hovering just below its 200-day moving average, with RSI at 43 indicating bearish pressure but not yet oversold\n\n**EARNINGS:**\nThe next earnings announcement is scheduled for August 10th.\n\n**OPTIONS ANALYSIS:**\n\nLooking at the July 24 expiration (35 days out), I see puts are trading with zero bid/ask spreads across all strikes. The $75 put strike shows a last price of $5.46 with 304 open interest and an implied volatility of 6.25%, while deeper in-the-money strikes like $70 show higher IV at 12.50% but wider spreads. For calls, the $90 strike has decent open interest at 442 contracts trading at $10.30, though there's minimal volume on the $75 strike with only 235 open interest.\n\nNow examining July 31 puts (42 DTE), I'm seeing similar zero-spread pricing on ITM strikes like $80 ($7.50 last, 397 OI) and the IV pattern continues where deeper ITM options show artificially elevated readings at near-zero percentages due to calculation issues with deep in-the-money positions.\n\nThe data quality is compromised by these zero bid/ask spreads, which are causing the IV calculations to malfunction—particularly for strikes that cross the spot price. This makes it difficult to assess true option pricing and liquidity conditions across different expirations and strikes. Looking at the August 21 puts now - those OI numbers are much more substantial, with the $70 strike having over 5,700 contracts open interest.\n\nBut here's the real issue: every single contract in all these chains has zero bid and ask prices. That's a critical liquidity red flag. The tool is returning mid-price \"last\" values only, which means I can't actually assess whether there's real market activity or calculate proper bid-ask spreads.\n\nLet me look at what data quality I'm actually getting from the wheel hunter's queue meta versus what my investigation found - the discrepancy between their IV of around 12.5% and what I'm seeing in the chains is concerning.\n\nThe problem might be that for ITM options, the \"last\" price includes intrinsic value, so the premium isn't just time value. But I need to verify whether these are actually real prices or stale data. Without bid/ask information, I can't determine true market liquidity, which makes any spread calculations unreliable. The wheel hunter flagged this as a setup with ~75% annualized yield, but my investigation reveals critical gaps in the pricing data that undermine those metrics.\n\nLooking at the earnings situation more carefully—August 10 is about 52 days out. Most of the expiries I'm evaluating fall before then: July 24 (35 DTE) and July 31 (42 DTE) are clean, but August 21 extends past the earnings date at 63 DTE. The September expiry at 92 DTE is definitely too far out.\n\nFor IV rank assessment, I'm seeing implied volatility around 6-12% based on the option premiums available. Given that ASTS has experienced massive price swings ranging from $36 to $134, I need to compare this current IV against historical levels during similar volatility regimes to determine if the rank is actually elevated or compressed.\n\nThe stock's been drifting downward after hitting those highs in May and June, now sitting near its 200-day moving average with RSI neutral at 43. The launch of BlueBirds 8-10 happened today (June 18), so that's fresh news but probably already priced in given the recent decline from peak levels.\n\nThe core problem I'm running into is that bid/ask spreads are showing as zero across all contracts, which suggests either illiquid options or stale data on this small-cap name with an $31B market cap. Without reliable liquidity metrics to validate the IV numbers against, I can't confidently assess whether there's actually a tradeable opportunity here.\n\nLooking at what would make this work: if I'm selling a put at $75 and get assigned when ASTS drops below that strike, my cost basis is essentially the premium I'm collecting minus any depreciation on the stock itself. The wheel strategy only holds up if I'd genuinely want to own the shares at that price point—and with negative earnings, cash burn issues, no profits in sight, and satellite launches as the main catalyst, that's a tougher sell than the IV metrics suggest.\n\nThe technical picture is also working against me: ASTS has fallen nearly 40% from its highs and RSI sits around 43 with MACD showing bearish momentum. This isn't a stock I'd want to be long at assignment prices right now.\n\nBut here's what's actually happening—the August 21 puts are trading with real volume and open interest, suggesting actual market activity rather than just stale quotes. And the BlueBird 8 launch today is creating legitimate volatility that could drive elevated IV for near-term options.\n\nThe fundamental picture is what really concerns me though: negative earnings, no revenue model proven yet, heavy cash burn, and satellites still being deployed with commercial service not expected until late 2026 or beyond. That said, if I'm selling puts below the 200-day moving average on a stock at $80, the assignment price becomes more defensible from a value perspective.\n\nI'm trying to figure out what IV rank actually means here—ASTS has had periods of extreme volatility with spikes to 100-150% during high-price regimes, so I need to recalibrate whether 10-13% is genuinely elevated or just appears that way because the stock has settled into a lower volatility range. The problem is my tools aren't giving me clean IV rank data to work with.\n\nLooking at the August 21 $70 put specifically: with 63 DTE and 5,760 open interest plus 74 volume, it's showing $7.67 last trade with zero bid/ask spread. If that's accurate, I'm looking at roughly a 12% annualized yield on the premium—which is attractive if IV is genuinely elevated. But that zero spread is a red flag; either there's no real market makers active in this name or these are stale prices sitting there.\n\nFor a practical CSP strategy around 30-45 DTE before earnings hit in early August, I'd want to target something like the July 24 $70 put at ~$4.01 premium with 35 DTE. That works out to roughly 16% annualized yield if I use last price as my estimate for execution pricing.\n\nThe real problem I'm running into is that bid and ask prices are all showing zero across every contract in this data, which makes it impossible to calculate proper spread percentages or verify actual market liquidity. Without those fundamentals, the IV metrics become unreliable and I'm essentially flying blind on whether these premiums are actually executable at reasonable costs.\n\nBut stepping back from the technical issues—the wheel hunter is flagging a 75% annualized yield on the $75 put over 35 days, which translates to about 5-7% actual return depending on how it's calculated. That's extraordinarily high, and when I see numbers that extreme in options pricing, it usually means one of two things: either IV is genuinely elevated because there's substantial risk priced into the contract, or something's off with the data itself.\n\nGiven ASTS trades around $80, a $75 put would be about 6% out-of-the-money. The $5.46 premium on that strike represents roughly 7% of the stock price—about 3x what I'd typically see for a monthly CSP in normal market conditions. This kind of outsized premium suggests either elevated volatility expectations or some kind of data anomaly I need to investigate.\n\nLooking at the IV values the wheel hunter is pulling, they're showing around 12-13%, which would be considered moderate-high relative to historical norms but wouldn't typically justify premiums this large on its own. The discrepancy between what the premium actually implies versus what the reported IV suggests is making me question whether there's something off with either the data or my understanding of how these metrics relate.\n\nThe earnings risk compounds this—ASTS reports around 52 days out, so any position expiring after that window gets hit hard by IV crush. That rules out August expirations entirely. I'm also noticing that every contract has zero bid/ask spread data available, which makes it impossible to properly assess execution costs and liquidity. Without knowing whether these spreads are wide or tight, I can't reliably execute a wheel strategy.\n\nLooking at the $75 strike on July 24 specifically: the put trades at $5.46 with only 304 open interest and just 69 volume in recent trading—thin by any standard, even for ASTS's market cap. The IV reads out around 6%, which is borderline low; I'd want to see closer to 10% or higher before recommending a position. At 12.4% out-of-the-money from spot with only 35 DTE remaining, the math on annualized yield becomes tight.\n\nThe $70 strike presents a clearer picture: a 9.1% premium and roughly 17% annualized return would normally look attractive, but I'm running into data quality issues across multiple expirations—July options are showing zero bid/ask spreads, which is making it impossible to reliably assess whether these strikes are actually executable at reasonable costs.\n\nFor the longer-dated August 21 contracts, I've got more open interest and volume to work with, plus actual IV readings that appear legitimate. The $70 put there has 12% premium annualized around 11%, while the $75 sits just below my target threshold at 14.5%. But everything hinges on whether those zero-spread contracts are real market data or a system artifact.\n\nThe August expiration bleeds into earnings season, which adds another layer of risk I need to consider carefully.\n\nLooking back at the investigation criteria more systematically: price history shows we're sitting right at the 200-day moving average after dropping nearly 40% from highs. The stock has been on a downward trajectory with RSI neutral but MACD bearish. On fundamentals, I'm seeing a $31B market cap with significant losses and cash burn—ASTS isn't profitable yet, though they do have over $3B in cash against roughly $3B debt, suggesting near-term solvency isn't the immediate concern.\n\nThe company has positive revenue growth at 19% year-over-year but negative margins across the board, which is typical for a pre-commercial satellite constellation business. Their ROIC and operating cash flow are both negative, though the current ratio of 18 suggests strong short-term liquidity. Earnings are coming up on August 10th—52 days out—so anything with an August expiration hits during that window and gets flagged as untradeable due to earnings risk.\n\nLooking at recent SEC filings, there's nothing alarming in the last couple months aside from a normal business update and the May satellite launch announcement, which is actually constructive news. The BlueBird 8/9/10 launch today is positive catalyst material but already reflected in current pricing. For options, July 24th expires before earnings so that's clean to trade.\n\nThe real problem is the liquidity situation—every option across all expirations shows zero bid/ask spreads, which is a major red flag. The underlying stock itself trades over 30 million shares daily with reasonable volume, but the options market appears completely broken from a market maker perspective.\n\nLooking at actual OI and volume data though, some strikes do show decent activity: July 24th has nearly 1,200 combined open interest on puts across various strikes, August 21st put OI reaches over 15,000, and call volumes are similarly active. The stock's massive move from $40 to $133 earlier in the year means historical IV readings might be inflated compared to current realized volatility.\n\nThe real problem is those zero bid/ask spreads—it's unclear if that's stale data or a genuine liquidity issue with this options chain. I'm noticing the wheel hunter was getting around 12-13% IV while my chain analysis shows 6%, which suggests either different strikes, a data lag between their scan and current market conditions, or something else off in how these numbers align.\n\nLooking at what I can actually verify: there's no earnings conflict on July 24th, the $75 put strike hits that 15% annualized yield target, and OI looks solid across most expiries. But I'm stuck without reliable bid/ask data to confirm execution quality, which makes me skeptical about whether these numbers are even realistic.\n\nGiven ASTS's binary nature as a satellite play—either it works commercially or the business fails—the IV premium might actually be justified for that risk profile. Still, I need to reject this because those zero-spread contracts break my fundamental requirement for real market infrastructure, and I'm not confident enough in the underlying data quality to move forward.\n\nActually, let me reconsider with August 21st instead—those strikes show better liquidity and actual IV readings, which might give me something workable despite the earnings window risk. The $70 put there hits my yield target at around 11% annualized, so maybe that's worth exploring further even if it's outside my typical parameters.\n\n\n{\"symbol\":\"ASTS\",\"company\":\"AST SpaceMobile, Inc.\",\"investigation_summary\":\"ASTS is a pre-revenue/pre-profitability satellite-to-smartphone broadband company with $80.4M TTM revenue (up 19% YoY), -$3B debt vs $3B cash runway, and an unproven commercial service model that remains months from full deployment. The stock has been in freefall (-39.6% from 52w high of $133) after peaking on BlueBird satellite euphoria earlier in 2026, currently trading essentially at its 200-day moving average ($80.45). RSI is neutral at 43 with a bearish MACD cross 9 bars ago — the intermediate-term trend is down but the stock has support near multi-month lows around $70-75 from late April/early May. The bullish catalyst (BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites launched today via SpaceX) may offer a short-term relief bounce but doesn't change the fundamental risk/reward for wheel sellers. Earnings on August 10 is a hard wall — any expiry touching or crossing that date risks IV crush and must be rejected. The critical issue across ALL expirations is bid/ask spreads showing as zero across every contract in the chain data, which signals either stale pricing, extremely thin market-maker participation, or data feed issues making reliable execution impossible to verify at face value.\",\"verdict\":\"no_setup\",\"confidence_in_data\":2,\"structure_recommendation\":\"csp\",\"price_context\":{\"last_close\":80.39,\"ma_50\":88.42,\"ma_200\":80.45,\"yhigh_52w\":133.09,\"ylow_52w\":36.91,\"from_high_pct\":-39.6,\"from_200dma_pct\":-0.07,\"rsi_14\":43},\"iv_context\":{\"iv_rank_pct\":null,\"iv_percentile_pct\":null,\"iv_atm_30d\":null,\"iv_history_summary\":\"Cannot compute IV rank/percentile — all bid/ask fields return zero across every expiry, making reliable ATM IV extraction impossible. Implied vol reads 6-12% at various strikes per chain data but these figures are unreliable given the liquidity data vacuum.\"},\"candidate_strikes\":[{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-24\",\"dte\":35,\"strike\":75,\"premium\":5.46,\"annualized_yield_pct\":56.9,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-6.71,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-6.77,\"open_interest\":304,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":69.54},{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-24\",\"dte\":35,\"strike\":70,\"premium\":4.01,\"annualized_yield_pct\":41.7,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-12.93,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-12.99,\"open_interest\":737,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":65.99},{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-08-21\",\"dte\":63,\"strike\":70,\"premium\":7.67,\"annualized_yield_pct\":44.2,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-12.49,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-12.99,\"open_interest\":5760,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":62.33}],\"earnings_in_window\":{\"date\":\"2026-08-10\",\"in_dte\":true},\"anti_signals_present\":[\"Zero bid/ask spread across every contract in chain — liquidity infrastructure unverifiable; wheel hunter IV ~12% but ATM OTM puts show IV ~6%, suggesting discrepancy or data quality issue; deep cash burn (FCF -$1.4B), no path to profitability visible; stock down 40% from 52w high, trend bearish with MACD bearish cross 9 bars ago\",\"No revenue model proven at commercial scale — constellation still deploying\"],\"competitive_landscape\":\"Satellite-to-smartphone broadband is a nascent category where ASTS competes against SpaceX/Starlink (already operational LEO constellation), Omnispace, and Lynk Global. AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten have strategic stakes/partnerships with ASTS for direct-to-device service, while SpaceX has the operational advantage and capital to move faster in this space.\",\"key_risks\":[\"Earnings August 10 — must avoid any expiry crossing that date (IV crush risk)\",\"No bid/ask spread data on options chain — cannot verify execution quality or anti-wash-trade risk; OI exists but market maker participation is unclear\",\"Assignment scenario: being put shares in a binary-thesis pre-revenue company at $70-75 requires conviction that commercial service launch later in 2026 will be a stock-moving catalyst rather than another 'launch and dump' event\",\"Stock has lost 40% from 52w high, sitting right at the 200DMA — below both the 50DMA (88.42) and price; MACD bearish cross 9 days ago signals intermediate-term downtrend may not be over\",\"Cash burn of ~$1.4B FCF annually against $3B cash means roughly 2 years of runway without meaningful revenue acceleration; potential future equity dilution via ATM offering exists\"],\"sources\":[{\"label\":\"ASTS BlueBird Launch PR\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ast-spacemobile-announces-successful-orbital-101000956.html\"},{\"label\":\"ASTS Fair Value Analysis June 18 2026\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacemobile-asts-stock-could-051031831.html\"},{\"label\":\"Edgar 8-K Recent Filings\",\"url\":\"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001780312&type=8-K\"}]}", "cleaned_content": "{\"symbol\":\"ASTS\",\"company\":\"AST SpaceMobile, Inc.\",\"investigation_summary\":\"ASTS is a pre-revenue/pre-profitability satellite-to-smartphone broadband company with $80.4M TTM revenue (up 19% YoY), -$3B debt vs $3B cash runway, and an unproven commercial service model that remains months from full deployment. The stock has been in freefall (-39.6% from 52w high of $133) after peaking on BlueBird satellite euphoria earlier in 2026, currently trading essentially at its 200-day moving average ($80.45). RSI is neutral at 43 with a bearish MACD cross 9 bars ago — the intermediate-term trend is down but the stock has support near multi-month lows around $70-75 from late April/early May. The bullish catalyst (BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites launched today via SpaceX) may offer a short-term relief bounce but doesn't change the fundamental risk/reward for wheel sellers. Earnings on August 10 is a hard wall — any expiry touching or crossing that date risks IV crush and must be rejected. The critical issue across ALL expirations is bid/ask spreads showing as zero across every contract in the chain data, which signals either stale pricing, extremely thin market-maker participation, or data feed issues making reliable execution impossible to verify at face value.\",\"verdict\":\"no_setup\",\"confidence_in_data\":2,\"structure_recommendation\":\"csp\",\"price_context\":{\"last_close\":80.39,\"ma_50\":88.42,\"ma_200\":80.45,\"yhigh_52w\":133.09,\"ylow_52w\":36.91,\"from_high_pct\":-39.6,\"from_200dma_pct\":-0.07,\"rsi_14\":43},\"iv_context\":{\"iv_rank_pct\":null,\"iv_percentile_pct\":null,\"iv_atm_30d\":null,\"iv_history_summary\":\"Cannot compute IV rank/percentile — all bid/ask fields return zero across every expiry, making reliable ATM IV extraction impossible. Implied vol reads 6-12% at various strikes per chain data but these figures are unreliable given the liquidity data vacuum.\"},\"candidate_strikes\":[{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-24\",\"dte\":35,\"strike\":75,\"premium\":5.46,\"annualized_yield_pct\":56.9,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-6.71,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-6.77,\"open_interest\":304,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":69.54},{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-24\",\"dte\":35,\"strike\":70,\"premium\":4.01,\"annualized_yield_pct\":41.7,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-12.93,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-12.99,\"open_interest\":737,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":65.99},{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-08-21\",\"dte\":63,\"strike\":70,\"premium\":7.67,\"annualized_yield_pct\":44.2,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-12.49,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-12.99,\"open_interest\":5760,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":62.33}],\"earnings_in_window\":{\"date\":\"2026-08-10\",\"in_dte\":true},\"anti_signals_present\":[\"Zero bid/ask spread across every contract in chain — liquidity infrastructure unverifiable; wheel hunter IV ~12% but ATM OTM puts show IV ~6%, suggesting discrepancy or data quality issue; deep cash burn (FCF -$1.4B), no path to profitability visible; stock down 40% from 52w high, trend bearish with MACD bearish cross 9 bars ago\",\"No revenue model proven at commercial scale — constellation still deploying\"],\"competitive_landscape\":\"Satellite-to-smartphone broadband is a nascent category where ASTS competes against SpaceX/Starlink (already operational LEO constellation), Omnispace, and Lynk Global. AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten have strategic stakes/partnerships with ASTS for direct-to-device service, while SpaceX has the operational advantage and capital to move faster in this space.\",\"key_risks\":[\"Earnings August 10 — must avoid any expiry crossing that date (IV crush risk)\",\"No bid/ask spread data on options chain — cannot verify execution quality or anti-wash-trade risk; OI exists but market maker participation is unclear\",\"Assignment scenario: being put shares in a binary-thesis pre-revenue company at $70-75 requires conviction that commercial service launch later in 2026 will be a stock-moving catalyst rather than another 'launch and dump' event\",\"Stock has lost 40% from 52w high, sitting right at the 200DMA — below both the 50DMA (88.42) and price; MACD bearish cross 9 days ago signals intermediate-term downtrend may not be over\",\"Cash burn of ~$1.4B FCF annually against $3B cash means roughly 2 years of runway without meaningful revenue acceleration; potential future equity dilution via ATM offering exists\"],\"sources\":[{\"label\":\"ASTS BlueBird Launch PR\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ast-spacemobile-announces-successful-orbital-101000956.html\"},{\"label\":\"ASTS Fair Value Analysis June 18 2026\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacemobile-asts-stock-could-051031831.html\"},{\"label\":\"Edgar 8-K Recent Filings\",\"url\":\"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001780312&type=8-K\"}]}", "tool_calls": [], "finish_reason": "stop" } ], "tool_results": [ { "idx": 1, "name": "price_history", "args": { "ticker": "ASTS", "days": 365 }, "result_first_8k": 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Finance: ASTS News\",\"summary\":\"AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) launched three satellites into orbit on Wednesday, 17th June, and the stock jumped 6% in response. The reaction looks like a simple relief rally after a clean mission. It is actually a direct rebuttal to the specific argument Wall Street’s bears have been making for the past ...\"},{\"title\":\"How SpaceX Just Delivered AST SpaceMobile a Big Win\",\"link\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/m/00452d32-75c5-3a69-bb4c-c57f05fb6a40/how-spacex-just-delivered-ast.html?.tsrc=rss\",\"pubDate\":\"2026-06-17T19:45:00.000Z\",\"source\":\"Yahoo! 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Finance: ASTS News\",\"summary\":\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up, while the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite were down in l\"},{\"title\":\"AST SpaceMobile Puts Three More Satellites in Orbit\",\"link\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ast-spacemobile-puts-three-more-153148003.html?.tsrc=rss\",\"pubDate\":\"2026-06-17T15:31:48.000Z\",\"source\":\"Yahoo! Finance: ASTS News\",\"summary\":\"BlueBirds 8, 9, and 10 are the largest commercial arrays ever deployed in low Earth orbit\"},{\"title\":\"Netflix, AST SpaceMobile, and Jabil lead today's Trending Tickers\",\"link\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/video/netflix-ast-spacemobile-and-jabil-lead-todays-trending-tickers-153038473.html?.tsrc=rss\",\"pubDate\":\"2026-06-17T15:30:38.000Z\",\"source\":\"Yahoo! Finance: ASTS News\",\"summary\":\"Market Domination host Julie Hyman breaks down today's Trending Tickers, including Netflix (NFLX), which is denying reports of acquisition interest in Lionsgate (LION); AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) continues to trend up as it successfully launched satellites with the help of SpaceX (SPCX) and Jabil (JBL), which is hitting record highs on growing AI optimism.\"},{\"title\":\"AST SpaceMobile shares rise after launch of three BlueBird satellites\",\"link\":\"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1094053/ast-spacemobile-shares-rise-after-launch-of-three-bluebird-satellites-1094053.html?.tsrc=rss\",\"pubDate\":\"2026-06-17T15:07:00.000Z\",\"source\":\"Yahoo! Finance: ASTS News\",\"summary\":\"AST SpaceMobile Inc (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares moved about 4% higher on Wednesday after the company announced the successful launch of three new BlueBird satellites, expanding its planned space-based cellular broadband network. The satellites, designated BlueBirds 8, 9 and 10, were launched aboard...\"},{\"title\":\"Can ASTS Thrive Despite Rising Competition in the SATCOM Space?\",\"link\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/asts-thrive-despite-rising-competition-143800277.html?.tsrc=rss\",\"pubDate\":\"2026-06-17T14:38:00.000Z\",\"source\":\"Yahoo! Finance: ASTS News\",\"summary\":\"AST Spacemobile expands telecom partnerships and targets 45 BlueBird satellites in 2026, but rising competition and execution risks could test its path.\"},{\"title\":\"AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Launches BlueBird 8 9 And 10 For Direct To Phone Service\",\"link\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacemobile-asts-launches-bluebird-131301789.html?.tsrc=rss\",\"pubDate\":\"2026-06-17T13:13:01.000Z\",\"source\":\"Yahoo! Finance: ASTS News\",\"summary\":\"AST SpaceMobile (NasdaqGS:ASTS) has launched its next-generation BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites into low Earth orbit. 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UOA from yfinance V/OI. 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The stock has been in freefall (-39.6% from 52w high of $133) after peaking on BlueBird satellite euphoria earlier in 2026, currently trading essentially at its 200-day moving average ($80.45). RSI is neutral at 43 with a bearish MACD cross 9 bars ago — the intermediate-term trend is down but the stock has support near multi-month lows around $70-75 from late April/early May. The bullish catalyst (BlueBird 8, 9, and 10 satellites launched today via SpaceX) may offer a short-term relief bounce but doesn't change the fundamental risk/reward for wheel sellers. Earnings on August 10 is a hard wall — any expiry touching or crossing that date risks IV crush and must be rejected. The critical issue across ALL expirations is bid/ask spreads showing as zero across every contract in the chain data, which signals either stale pricing, extremely thin market-maker participation, or data feed issues making reliable execution impossible to verify at face value.\",\"verdict\":\"no_setup\",\"confidence_in_data\":2,\"structure_recommendation\":\"csp\",\"price_context\":{\"last_close\":80.39,\"ma_50\":88.42,\"ma_200\":80.45,\"yhigh_52w\":133.09,\"ylow_52w\":36.91,\"from_high_pct\":-39.6,\"from_200dma_pct\":-0.07,\"rsi_14\":43},\"iv_context\":{\"iv_rank_pct\":null,\"iv_percentile_pct\":null,\"iv_atm_30d\":null,\"iv_history_summary\":\"Cannot compute IV rank/percentile — all bid/ask fields return zero across every expiry, making reliable ATM IV extraction impossible. Implied vol reads 6-12% at various strikes per chain data but these figures are unreliable given the liquidity data vacuum.\"},\"candidate_strikes\":[{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-24\",\"dte\":35,\"strike\":75,\"premium\":5.46,\"annualized_yield_pct\":56.9,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-6.71,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-6.77,\"open_interest\":304,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":69.54},{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-07-24\",\"dte\":35,\"strike\":70,\"premium\":4.01,\"annualized_yield_pct\":41.7,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-12.93,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-12.99,\"open_interest\":737,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":65.99},{\"structure\":\"csp\",\"expiry\":\"2026-08-21\",\"dte\":63,\"strike\":70,\"premium\":7.67,\"annualized_yield_pct\":44.2,\"strike_distance_from_price_pct\":-12.49,\"strike_vs_200dma_pct\":-12.99,\"open_interest\":5760,\"bid_ask_spread_pct\":null,\"if_assigned_basis\":62.33}],\"earnings_in_window\":{\"date\":\"2026-08-10\",\"in_dte\":true},\"anti_signals_present\":[\"Zero bid/ask spread across every contract in chain — liquidity infrastructure unverifiable; wheel hunter IV ~12% but ATM OTM puts show IV ~6%, suggesting discrepancy or data quality issue; deep cash burn (FCF -$1.4B), no path to profitability visible; stock down 40% from 52w high, trend bearish with MACD bearish cross 9 bars ago\",\"No revenue model proven at commercial scale — constellation still deploying\"],\"competitive_landscape\":\"Satellite-to-smartphone broadband is a nascent category where ASTS competes against SpaceX/Starlink (already operational LEO constellation), Omnispace, and Lynk Global. AT&T, Verizon, and Rakuten have strategic stakes/partnerships with ASTS for direct-to-device service, while SpaceX has the operational advantage and capital to move faster in this space.\",\"key_risks\":[\"Earnings August 10 — must avoid any expiry crossing that date (IV crush risk)\",\"No bid/ask spread data on options chain — cannot verify execution quality or anti-wash-trade risk; OI exists but market maker participation is unclear\",\"Assignment scenario: being put shares in a binary-thesis pre-revenue company at $70-75 requires conviction that commercial service launch later in 2026 will be a stock-moving catalyst rather than another 'launch and dump' event\",\"Stock has lost 40% from 52w high, sitting right at the 200DMA — below both the 50DMA (88.42) and price; MACD bearish cross 9 days ago signals intermediate-term downtrend may not be over\",\"Cash burn of ~$1.4B FCF annually against $3B cash means roughly 2 years of runway without meaningful revenue acceleration; potential future equity dilution via ATM offering exists\"],\"sources\":[{\"label\":\"ASTS BlueBird Launch PR\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/articles/ast-spacemobile-announces-successful-orbital-101000956.html\"},{\"label\":\"ASTS Fair Value Analysis June 18 2026\",\"url\":\"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ast-spacemobile-asts-stock-could-051031831.html\"},{\"label\":\"Edgar 8-K Recent Filings\",\"url\":\"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001780312&type=8-K\"}]}", "tool_calls_total": 12, "walltime_ms": 531168, "stop_reason": "stop", "completed_at": "2026-06-18T13:51:57.191Z" }