{
  "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b",
  "started_at": "2026-06-16T00:52:50.131Z",
  "system_prompt": "You are Analyst, the thesis-judgment stage of an AI trade-ideas pipeline.\n\nScout has already gathered a JSON dossier of scoring_inputs. Your job is to\nSCORE the dossier against the methodology rubric and either draft a\nhigh-conviction idea, draft a clearly labeled paper-tracked research idea,\nor skip.\n\nOPTION B (skip) IS THE EXPECTED DEFAULT. The pipeline publishes normal\nrecommendation-grade ideas rarely and only when something clears a high bar.\nMost dossiers should return\n{ \"skip\": true, \"reason\": \"...\", \"score\": <num> }. Mediocre publishes burn\nDevil's Advocate budget and create credibility risk on the public site.\nPaper-tracked ideas are a separate measurement lane: they are zero-position,\nlow-confidence research setups used to learn whether the model's medium-grade\nsignals work over time. They must never read like a buy/sell recommendation.\n\nLOOK AT THE FULL STRUCTURE MENU. Even when Scout says 'no asymmetric long\nopportunity exists' (verdict=range_bound_or_income), there may be a clear\nINCOME structure (covered call against the high; strangle inside an IV-\nelevated band; CSP at a downside-defended strike). Don't reflex-skip just\nbecause long_stock isn't attractive. Read the dossier looking for what\nSHAPE OF TRADE fits, not just whether long is fits.\n\nSCORING RUBRIC (sum to max 100)\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.smart_money\n   • 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in\n     last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\n   • +3 pts if CEO is among the buyers\n   • +3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\n   • +2 pts if total purchases > $5M\n   • 5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add (Berkshire, Pershing\n     Square, Appaloosa, Greenlight, Scion, Polen, Pabrai, Tepper, etc.)\n   • +3 pts if it's in the manager's top-3 positions\n   • 2 pts for politician STOCK Act recent buy\n   • +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\n   • Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.options_flow\n   • 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish\n     and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\n   • 3 pts: bullish IV skew (call IV > put IV) consistent with thesis\n   • 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30 (sustained call-side flow)\n   • 1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\n   • Penalty: −5 pts if whale_put_blocks_otm ≥ 2 and bias is bearish\n     without a hedging explanation\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.catalyst\n   • 10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\n   • 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\n   • 5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\n   • 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind (named hyperscaler capex flowing\n     to this name in $)\n   Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.mispricing\n   • 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median (with non-deteriorating\n     earnings)\n   • 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median\n   • 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7% with stable FCF\n   • 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25% (replaces one of the above)\n   Cap at 15.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.quality\n   • 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15% (or trending there)\n   • 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY\n   • 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.technical\n   • 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\n   • 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector\n   • 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\n   • 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\n\nRISK CLASS — choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field:\n   \"core\"        — market_cap > $5B. Standard methodology sizing.\n   \"asymmetric\"  — market_cap ≤ $5B (small-cap moonshot). 90%+ of these\n                   bets lose money or go to zero; the few that work pay\n                   for the rest. Position sizing is far more conservative\n                   to fit the variance.\n\nTHRESHOLDS — depend on risk_class\n\n  CORE risk_class:\n   ≥ 80    Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 4-5%\n   70-79   Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 2.5-3.0%\n   60-69   Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 1.5-2.0%\n   45-59   Paper-track if no hard anti-signal and the thesis is specific,\n           measurable, and falsifiable; otherwise skip\n   < 45    Skip\n\n  ASYMMETRIC risk_class — strict sizing:\n   ≥ 80    Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 1.5%\n   70-79   Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 1.0%\n   60-69   Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 0.5%\n   45-59   Paper-track only if there is a concrete dated catalyst or\n           measurable event path; otherwise skip\n   < 45    Skip\n   Structure must be long_stock (options structures are wrong shape for\n   moonshots; Compliance enforces this in code).\n\nANTI-SIGNAL GATES (any one of these forces skip regardless of score):\n   • Going-concern audit qualification\n   • Pending material litigation (DOJ/SEC enforcement, class action with merit)\n   • Customer concentration > 30%\n   • Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\n   • Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\n   • Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\n   • Pump-and-dump signals (sudden volume + chat-room mentions)\n\nIf scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a\ngate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\n\nEDGE CHECK (philosophical, not numeric)\n\nAfter scoring, ask: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already\nknow?\" If the answer is generic (it's cheap, AI is a tailwind, technicals\nlook great), the score is misleading — skip even if numerical score is 65.\nReal edge means a specific data point or interpretation the market missed.\n\nPAPER-TRACKING LANE (educational measurement, not advice)\n\nUse this lane for score 45-59 dossiers that are not strong enough for a\nnormal publication but are specific enough to evaluate later. Requirements:\n   • draft.paper_track MUST be true\n   • headline MUST begin with \"Paper Track:\"\n   • thesis_short MUST explicitly say this is a paper-tracked research setup,\n     not an actionable recommendation\n   • risk.position_size_pct MUST be 0\n   • confidence MUST be 1 or 2 (2 only when score ≥55)\n   • exit.time_horizon_months MUST be present so Monitor can close it\n   • use long_stock unless the dossier gives complete, current option\n     contract data for the chosen income structure\n\nDo not paper-track dossiers with methodology anti-signals, stale numbers,\nmissing sources, unverified catalyst dates, or generic \"cheap/AI/tailwind\"\nstories. Skip those.\n\nUPSIDE TARGET\n\nThe desk is looking for setups with a plausible 20%+ return target. For\nlong_stock, exit.target_price should be at least 20% above entry.price_at_idea\nunless the idea is explicitly a paper-tracked post-event study. If the\nsource-backed upside is less than 20%, skip rather than publishing a low-upside\nidea.\n\nSCOUT VERDICT → STRUCTURE GUIDANCE\n\nRead scoring_inputs and Scout's verdict together. The verdict tells you\nWHICH structures Scout thinks are in scope for this name:\n\n  verdict='promising'              → long_stock | csp (for asymmetric long)\n  verdict='range_bound_or_income'  → cc | strangle | csp on pullback\n                                     (DON'T default to long_stock — Scout\n                                      already said this isn't an asymmetric\n                                      long. Look at IV elevated → strangle;\n                                      stock at 52w high, fundamentals healthy\n                                      → cc against implicit long; pullback\n                                      thesis with cash → csp)\n  verdict='bearish_setup'          → naked_call (rarely; respect ceiling)\n\nIf Scout supplied structure_hints[], they're a starting point. You can\noverride with reasoning, but if you go OUTSIDE the verdict's natural set,\nexplain why in thesis_long.\n\nSTRUCTURE SELECTION — full menu:\n\n   long_stock   — multi-quarter asymmetric thesis, IV not elevated, want\n                  full upside participation\n   csp          — bullish, want to own at strike, IV elevated, ann yield ≥15%\n   cc           — range-bound or mildly bullish, IV elevated, on top of long\n                  stock leg, if-called return ≥15% ann\n   strangle     — RANGE-BOUND thesis with elevated IV. Sell OTM call + OTM\n                  put. Need: comfortable owning at put_strike, no parabolic\n                  upside expectation. Ann yield ≥12%. Compute and emit\n                  breakeven_high (call_strike + total_premium) and\n                  breakeven_low (put_strike - total_premium).\n   naked_put    — same setup as CSP but using margin. ~2x yield, margin call\n                  risk. Only for margin-equipped accounts. Note explicitly.\n   naked_call   — bearish setup with elevated IV. UNCAPPED loss if rally.\n                  Confidence ceiling 4 (Compliance enforces). Requires\n                  explicit upside-shock thesis + defense plan in conditions.\n\nMatch the structure to the thesis shape — don't reach for naked options\njust because the premium is fatter. Most candidates are best as long_stock\nor CSP. Strangles only when you have a clear range thesis backed by IV\nand fundamentals.\n\nIF YOU SKIP — output exactly:\n  {\n    \"skip\": true,\n    \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n    \"score_breakdown\": {\n      \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n      \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n    },\n    \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n  }\n\nIF YOU PROCEED — output a draft idea matching this schema (this is the same\nschema the published site renders from):\n\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n    \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-keyphrase\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"TICKER\",\n    \"company\": \"Full name\",\n    \"sector\": \"semis-ai-infra\" | \"small-cap-asymmetric\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\" | \"asymmetric\",\n    \"headline\": \"Punchy 1-line — the news angle on the thesis\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"1 sentence — why this trade exists.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph framing the setup.\",\n      \"## Catalyst\",\n      \"Detailed catalyst narrative.\",\n      \"## Why the market is mispricing this\",\n      \"Edge explanation, citing dossier facts.\",\n      \"## Numbers\",\n      \"- Bullet 1 with concrete numbers from the dossier\",\n      \"- Bullet 2\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Honest description of what could go wrong.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"long_stock\" | \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\" | \"naked_put\" | \"naked_call\",\n      \"long_stock\":   { \"entry_zone_low\": <num>, \"entry_zone_high\": <num>, \"shares_per_unit\": 100 },\n      \"csp\":          { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": <num>, \"annualized_yield_pct\": <num>, \"if_assigned_basis\": <num> },\n      \"cc\":           { \"underlying_basis\": <num>, \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": <num>, \"if_called_return_pct\": <num> },\n      \"strangle\":     { \"call_strike\": <num>, \"put_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_premium_target\": <num>, \"put_premium_target\": <num>, \"total_premium_target\": <num>, \"breakeven_high\": <num>, \"breakeven_low\": <num>, \"annualized_yield_pct\": <num>, \"max_loss_note\": \"...\" },\n      \"naked_put\":    { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": <num>, \"annualized_yield_pct\": <num>, \"max_loss_per_contract\": <num>, \"margin_estimate_per_contract\": <num>, \"warning\": \"...\" },\n      \"naked_call\":   { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": <num>, \"annualized_yield_pct\": <num>, \"max_loss\": \"UNLIMITED\", \"warning\": \"...\" }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": <last_close from dossier>,\n      \"conditions\": \"How/when to enter — e.g., 'Open starter on pullback to MA50.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"target_price\": <num or null for options structures>,\n      \"time_horizon_months\": <int 3-12>,\n      \"stop_conditions\": \"Specific signal(s) that trigger a close.\"\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Honest, specific bear case (not generic 'market could fall').\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Specific event/data that invalidates the call.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": <0.0 for paper_track, otherwise 0.5 to 5.0 conviction-weighted>\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      { \"label\": \"...\", \"url\": \"...\" }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": <1-5, conservative>,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\",\n    \"devils_advocate_verdict\": null\n  }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that\nsub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\n\nALL NUMBERS must be drawn from the dossier or computable from it. Do not\ninvent prices, strikes, premiums.\n\nOUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.",
  "user_prompt": "CURRENT DATE: 2026-06-16. THE YEAR IS 2026.\nDATE RULES — read before writing ANY date:\n  - Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later. Do NOT write 2025 dates — your training prior is stale.\n  - Every option expiry MUST be a real FUTURE date relative to 2026-06-16. Copy expiries verbatim from options_expiries()/the dossier — never infer a year from memory.\n  - Before writing a date, check it: if it is earlier than 2026-06-16, it is WRONG — re-read the live tool output.\n\nHere is the dossier from Scout. Decide: skip or draft.\n\n\nLESSONS LEARNED: none yet.\n\nDOSSIER:\n{\n  \"symbol\": \"IMDX\",\n  \"company\": \"Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc.\",\n  \"investigation_summary\": \"Insight Molecular Diagnostics (Nasdaq: IMDX) is a pre-commercial precision diagnostics company centered on GraftAssure, a dd-cfDNA blood test for transplant rejection monitoring. The investigation triggered on Form 4 cluster activity — three June 11/15 filings turned out to be RSU vesting events (no-cost acquisitions at $0), not open-market purchases. However, a separate and more meaningful signal exists: Broadwood Partners LP, the company's largest shareholder (~39% of shares) and a board-connected entity, executed ~753k shares of open-market purchases in April 2026 alone across six trading days at weighted-average prices of $3.44–$3.88/share (~$2.7M total), followed by additional filings bringing their position to over 12.68M shares directly owned. The company submitted GraftAssureDx for FDA review on March 25, 2026 and expects UK CE marking via self-certification imminently in Q2 2026. Multiple peer-reviewed publications (American Journal of Transplantation, EFI, ERA, ATC) are creating data momentum heading into the American Transplant Congress in Boston June 20–24. The stock trades at $5.70 with a $184M market cap vs. analyst price targets of $8.33 (mean FV estimate) to $12 (upside scenario).\",\n  \"verdict\": \"range_bound_or_income\",\n  \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n  \"structure_hints\": [\n    \"csp\",\n    \"cc\"\n  ],\n  \"business_snapshot\": \"Insight Molecular Diagnostics (iMDx) is a Nashville-based precision diagnostics company with 55 employees, focused on two core platforms: GraftAssure (dd-cfDNA transplant rejection monitoring) and DetermaIO/DetermaCNI (oncology biomarker tests). The company's lead product, GraftAssureDx, was submitted to the FDA for kidney transplant rejection testing in late March 2026 — representing a critical binary regulatory catalyst. Revenue has collapsed from ~$5M+ in prior years to TTM of $1.9M as legacy kitted products wind down and the company awaits commercialization clearance; Q4 2025 had a severe -203% EPS surprise (-$0.72 actual vs. -$0.24 est.), though Q1 2026 rebounded with a +54% beat ($0.12 actual vs. $0.26 est.). The balance sheet is the company's strongest asset: ~$28M cash versus only $3.07M debt, providing roughly two years of runway at current burn rates post the February 2026 $26M financing. Broadwood Partners LP — a New York-based investment fund and board-connected party — has accumulated over 12.68M shares (~39% ownership), making it both the dominant shareholder and the most significant smart-money signal in this name.\",\n  \"scoring_inputs\": {\n    \"smart_money\": {\n      \"insider_open_market_purchases_90d\": [\n        {\n          \"insider\": \"Broadwood Partners LP / Neal C. Bradsher\",\n          \"role\": \"10% Owner / Director (Broadwood Capital Inc.)\",\n          \"amount_usd\": 2700000,\n          \"date\": \"2026-04-16\",\n          \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000091957426002306/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"insider\": \"Broadwood Partners LP / Neal C. Bradsher\",\n          \"role\": \"10% Owner / Director (Broadwood Capital Inc.)\",\n          \"amount_usd\": 2500000,\n          \"date\": \"2026-04-23\",\n          \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000091957426002414/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"insider\": \"Louis E. Silverman (Director) — RSU vesting, NOT open-market purchase\",\n          \"role\": \"Director\",\n          \"amount_usd\": 0,\n          \"date\": \"2026-06-11\",\n          \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000149315226028755/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"insider\": \"Andrew J. Last (Director) — RSU vesting, NOT open-market purchase\",\n          \"role\": \"Director\",\n          \"amount_usd\": 0,\n          \"date\": \"2026-06-11\",\n          \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000149315226028754/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"insider\": \"Andrew Arno (Director) — RSU vesting, NOT open-market purchase\",\n          \"role\": \"Director\",\n          \"amount_usd\": 0,\n          \"date\": \"2026-06-11\",\n          \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000149315226028753/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n        }\n      ],\n      \"insider_open_market_total_usd_90d\": 5200000,\n      \"distinct_insider_buyers_90d\": 1,\n      \"ceo_buy_present\": false,\n      \"cfo_buy_present\": false,\n      \"material_insider_selling_90d_usd\": null,\n      \"notable_13f_holders\": [\n        \"pending — v2\"\n      ],\n      \"politician_recent_buys\": [\n        \"pending — v2\"\n      ]\n    },\n    \"catalyst\": {\n      \"next_earnings_date\": \"2026-08-10T20:00:00.000Z\",\n      \"recent_eps_surprise_pattern\": \"Mixed; Q4 2025 -203% miss (-$0.72 vs -$0.24 est.), Q1 2026 +54% beat (-$0.12 actual vs -$0.26 est.)\",\n      \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": false,\n      \"named_catalysts\": [\n        {\n          \"type\": \"regulatory\",\n          \"description\": \"GraftAssureDx FDA submission for kidney transplant rejection testing filed March 25, 2026 — decision timeline TBD (typically 3-12 months for de novo/pathogen Panel tests)\",\n          \"date_or_window\": \"FDA review ongoing; decision expected within 3–12 months post-submission\",\n          \"source_urls\": [\n            \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000149315226012915/form8-k.htm\"\n          ],\n          \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"type\": \"regulatory\",\n          \"description\": \"UK CE marking via self-certification for GraftAssure expected in Q2 2026 — imminent given current date is June 16, 2026\",\n          \"date_or_window\": \"Q2 2026 (imminent)\",\n          \"source_urls\": [\n            \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/imdx-submits-graftassuredx-fda-review-200500445.html\"\n          ],\n          \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"type\": \"product\",\n          \"description\": \"American Journal of Transplantation pre-proof published June 11, 2026: GraftAssure CM-score demonstrated >80% positive predictive value in kidney transplant cohort; doubles reliability vs. existing methods\",\n          \"date_or_window\": \"June 11, 2026\",\n          \"source_urls\": [\n            \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/imdx-graftassure-assay-sets-standard-201700927.html\"\n          ],\n          \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"type\": \"product\",\n          \"description\": \"American Transplant Congress (ATC) in Boston, June 20–24: multiple GraftAssure data presentations and KOL events; iMDx also sponsoring grant for economics of in-house transplant testing\",\n          \"date_or_window\": \"June 20–24, 2026\",\n          \"source_urls\": [\n            \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/imdx-highlight-house-transplant-testing-200500649.html\"\n          ],\n          \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"type\": \"product\",\n          \"description\": \"European Renal Association (ERA) Congress in Glasgow, June 3–6: three GraftAssure posters presented; EFI conference April 21–24 also featured head-to-head data\",\n          \"date_or_window\": \"June 3–6, 2026 (already occurred); April 21–24 already completed\",\n          \"source_urls\": [\n            \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/real-world-evidence-industry-momentum-120000331.html\"\n          ],\n          \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n        },\n        {\n          \"type\": \"sector\",\n          \"description\": \"GALACTIC registry study: Northeast kidney transplant center (top 10 in U.S.) signed clinical trial agreement to participate; international EU and APAC purchase activity noted\",\n          \"date_or_window\": \"Ongoing — Q1/Q2 2026 milestones disclosed\",\n          \"source_urls\": [\n            \"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imdx-reports-q1-2026-results-200500582.html\"\n          ],\n          \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n        }\n      ]\n    },\n    \"mispricing\": {\n      \"forward_pe\": null,\n      \"sector_median_forward_pe\": null,\n      \"ev_to_ebitda\": -4.79,\n      \"sector_median_ev_to_ebitda\": null,\n      \"fcf_yield_pct\": -8.57,\n      \"sotp_gap_pct\": 45.83,\n      \"narrative\": \"Traditional P/E and EV/EBITDA are meaningless here — IMDX is pre-revenue/pre-profit with TTM revenue of $1.9M and massive operating losses (operating margin -32,284%). However, analyst mean FV estimate of $8.33 represents ~46% upside from current $5.70; the $12 price target seen in recent articles suggests ~110% upside if FDA approval materializes. Broadwood accumulated at $3.44–$3.88 vs. current $5.70 — still showing paper gain but not yet exited.\"\n    },\n    \"quality\": {\n      \"roic_pct\": null,\n      \"gross_margin_trend_pp_yoy\": null,\n      \"net_debt_to_ebitda\": null,\n      \"balance_sheet_grade\": \"B+\"\n    },\n    \"technical\": {\n      \"above_50dma\": true,\n      \"above_200dma\": true,\n      \"rsi_14\": 51.1,\n      \"macd_recent_bullish_cross\": false,\n      \"12_1_momentum_vs_sector_pct\": null\n    }\n  },\n  \"price_context\": {\n    \"last_close\": 5.7,\n    \"ytd_return_pct\": 54.89,\n    \"from_52w_high_pct\": 32.95\n  },\n  \"filings_reviewed\": [\n    {\n      \"form\": \"10-K\",\n      \"filed\": \"2026-03-26\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000164238026000004/imdx-20251231.htm\",\n      \"key_takeaways\": [\n        \"FY 2025 results: severe revenue collapse to $1.9M (from prior years), massive operating losses; $28.2M cash on hand vs. $3.07M debt — balance sheet survivable but capital-dependent; Broadwood Partners LP disclosed as 10% owner with ~12M shares + warrants at $30.60 strike; February 2026 $26M financing completed (PuraVida, Unterberg Legacy Capital, Bio-Rad among investors); Chronix merger/in-process R&D noted; GraftAssureDx FDA submission confirmed pending\"\n      ]\n    },\n    {\n      \"form\": \"10-Q\",\n      \"filed\": \"2026-05-13\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000164238026000008/imdx-20260331.htm\",\n      \"key_takeaways\": [\n        \"Q1 2026: EPS beat (+54% surprise), ongoing revenue depletion, cash $29.4M; FDA submission filed March 25, 2026; UK CE marking expected Q2 2026; GALACTIC registry study enrolling top-10 U.S. transplant center; EU and APAC commercial purchases initiated\"\n      ]\n    },\n    {\n      \"form\": \"8-K\",\n      \"filed\": \"2026-05-13\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000149315226022721/form8-k.htm\",\n      \"key_takeaways\": [\n        \"Q1 2026 earnings release: financial results only; no new guidance\"\n      ]\n    },\n    {\n      \"form\": \"4 (Broadwood Partners)\",\n      \"filed\": \"2026-04-20\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000091957426002306/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\",\n      \"key_takeaways\": [\n        \"Open-market purchases: 182,861 shares on April 16–20 at $3.44–$3.88 wtd avg; Broadwood position after: ~12.11M shares directly owned + warrants\"\n      ]\n    },\n    {\n      \"form\": \"4 (Broadwood Partners)\",\n      \"filed\": \"2026-04-27\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000091957426002414/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\",\n      \"key_takeaways\": [\n        \"Open-market purchases: 570,184 shares on April 23–27 at $3.50–$3.84 wtd avg; Broadwood position after: ~12.68M shares directly owned + warrants\"\n      ]\n    },\n    {\n      \"form\": \"4 (Silverman/Last/Arno)\",\n      \"filed\": \"2026-06-15\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000149315226028753/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\",\n      \"key_takeaways\": [\n        \"RSU vesting events for three independent directors on June 11 (vesting date), NOT open-market purchases; no cash consideration exchanged\"\n      ]\n    }\n  ],\n  \"options_context\": {\n    \"expiries_examined\": [\n      \"2026-07-17\",\n      \"2026-09-18\"\n    ],\n    \"iv_summary\": \"Sep 18 ATM IV unavailable due to illiquidity; Jul 17 OI is negligible across all strikes. This is an extremely illiquid name with minimal options activity — the Sep 18 $5 put has IV of ~128% (bid/ask spread $0.70–$1.40 on a $5-strike put), suggesting elevated premium but thin market-making.\",\n    \"notable_skew_or_flow\": \"No whale blocks detected in available data; aggregate flow directional bias flagged 'bullish' by crude methodology, driven only by 2 call contracts vs. 0 puts at Jul 17 — not statistically meaningful given near-zero OI volume. UOA signal is weak.\"\n  },\n  \"competitive_landscape\": \"GraftAssure competes against centralized dd-cfDNA tests (CareDx's AlloSure is the dominant incumbent in kidney transplant monitoring; Natera's Prospera; Thermo Fisher/Eurofins offerings). iMDx's differentiation is a decentralized PCR-based platform (lab-in-a-box model) vs. centralized lab testing, potentially enabling faster turnaround and lower cost at smaller transplant centers. The technology has shown head-to-head non-inferiority in two independent published comparisons, but commercial execution risk is significant given the company's small size and lack of FDA-cleared products to date.\",\n  \"key_risks\": [\n    \"FDA approval for GraftAssureDx is not guaranteed — de novo pathway can take 3–12+ months with no guarantee of clearance\",\n    \"Pre-commercial company: TTM revenue of $1.9M, operating margin -32,284%, cash runway ~2 years at current burn without new FDA revenue\",\n    \"Extreme stock volatility: 52-week range $2.42–$8.48; stock already up +55% YTD from March lows; pullback risk on any setback\",\n    \"Broadwood Partners' position (~39%) creates overhang and potential exit pressure if dilution occurs or catalyst disappoints\",\n    \"Multiple prior capital raises (Feb 2026: $26M; April 2025: unregistered placements with Arno, Schutz, Patrick Smith, Unterberg Legacy, Bio-Rad) indicate ongoing financing needs\",\n    \"RSU vesting for three directors on June 11 was a non-cash compensation event — not indicative of insider conviction at current prices\",\n    \"Illiquid options market makes hedging or income strategies difficult to execute without significant slippage\"\n  ],\n  \"what_the_market_might_be_missing\": \"The Broadwood Partners accumulation (12.68M shares, ~39% ownership) is the strongest smart-money signal and represents genuine board-aligned capital commitment — but this was built at $3.44–$3.88 in April 2026, meaning Broadwood already has substantial unrealized gains (~47–66%) at current $5.70. The June 11 RSU filings were misread by the investigation trigger as insider buys; they're compensation events that should be discounted. The real edge is the convergence of: (1) FDA decision catalyst pending on GraftAssureDx, (2) imminent UK CE self-certification, (3) multiple peer-reviewed publications establishing clinical credibility, and (4) Broadwood's continued accumulation at prices materially below current levels — suggesting insiders believe in a path to commercialization. However, the stock is not deeply discounted: analyst targets of $8.33–$12 are well known and already priced in.\",\n  \"anti_signals_present\": [\n    \"dilution\",\n    \"concentration\",\n    \"low_liquidity\"\n  ],\n  \"sources\": [\n    {\n      \"label\": \"10-K FY2025 (annual)\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000164238026000004/imdx-20251231.htm\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"10-Q Q1 2026 (quarterly)\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000164238026000008/imdx-20260331.htm\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"8-K Q4 2025 earnings — FDA submission announcement\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000149315226012915/form8-k.htm\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Form 4 Broadwood Partners April purchases (April 16–20, 2026)\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000091957426002306/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Form 4 Broadwood Partners April purchases (April 23–27, 2026)\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1642380/000091957426002414/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"American Journal of Transplantation publication on GraftAssure CM-score\",\n      \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/imdx-graftassure-assay-sets-standard-201700927.html\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"IMDX Q1 2026 earnings and GALACTIC registry update\",\n      \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imdx-reports-q1-2026-results-200500582.html\"\n    }\n  ],\n  \"unfetched_signals\": [\n    \"13f_deltas\",\n    \"politician_trades\",\n    \"sentiment_score\"\n  ]\n}\n\nOutput ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT\ninclude <think>...</think> reasoning blocks — they eat the output token\nbudget and produce truncated, unparseable decisions.",
  "completions": [
    {
      "ts": "2026-06-16T00:53:28.662Z",
      "raw_content": "<think>The user wants me to score the dossier for IMDX (Insight Molecular Diagnostics Inc.) and decide whether to skip or draft a trade idea.\n\nLet's go through the scoring rubric:\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25)\n- Broadwood Partners LP (10% Owner/Director) bought open-market shares in April 2026: ~$2.7M + $2.5M = $5.2M total.\n- 1 distinct insider buyer (Broadwood Partners LP / Neal C. Bradsher).\n- CEO/CFO buy? No.\n- Total purchases > $5M? Yes, $5.2M. (+2 pts)\n- 13F initiation? Not yet fetched (\"pending — v2\").\n- Politician buy? Pending.\n- Multiple unrelated members? No.\n- Penalty: No material insider selling.\n- Score: 0 (3+ distinct buyers? No, only 1) + 2 (>$5M) = 2. Wait, the rubric says:\n  - 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders... (0)\n  - +3 pts if CEO (0)\n  - +3 pts if CFO (0)\n  - +2 pts if total purchases > $5M (2)\n  - 5 pts for known concentrated 13F (0)\n  - +3 pts if top-3 (0)\n  - 2 pts politician (0)\n  - +1 pt multiple unrelated (0)\n  - Penalty: 0\n  Total A: 2\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10)\n- Whale call blocks? No.\n- Bullish IV skew? Not mentioned.\n- Net dollar bias > 30%? No.\n- Large OI? No, OI negligible.\n- Penalty: 0.\nTotal B: 0\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25)\n- Earnings within 90 days? Yes, Aug 10, 2026. But EPS surprise pattern is mixed (Q4 miss, Q1 beat). Doesn't meet the 10 pt threshold (requires last 4 quarters > 0%).\n- Pending product launch/FDA/contract? FDA submission filed March 25, 2026. Decision timeline TBD. Not a concrete dated catalyst yet, but close. Let's give 5 pts for pending FDA/de novo.\n- Recent guidance raise? No.\n- Quantifiable sector tailwind? GALACTIC registry, multiple publications. Maybe 5 pts.\n- Cap at 25. Let's give it 10 pts for FDA/regulatory catalyst and clinical data momentum.\nTotal C: 10\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15)\n- Forward P/E? null.\n- EV/EBITDA? -4.79 vs null median. Not applicable.\n- FCF yield? -8.57%. Not applicable.\n- SOTP gap ≥ 25%? Yes, 45.83%. (+5 pts)\n- Cap at 15.\nTotal D: 5\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15)\n- ROIC? null.\n- Gross margin trend? null.\n- Net debt / EBITDA? null (but balance sheet grade B+, $28M cash vs $3M debt). Let's give 0.\nTotal E: 0\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10)\n- Above 50DMA & 200DMA? Yes. (+3 pts)\n- 12-1 month return positive & beating sector? Not specified.\n- RSI 14 in 40-65? Yes, 51.1. (+2 pts)\n- MACD bullish cross? No.\nTotal F: 5\n\nTotal Score: 2 + 0 + 10 + 5 + 0 + 5 = 22.\n\nWait, let's re-evaluate A carefully.\n\"10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\"\nOnly Broadwood Partners LP is listed as open market purchases. The others are RSU vesting (code V or M, not P). So distinct buyers = 1. Score = 0 for the 10 pts.\n+2 pts for >$5M.\nTotal A = 2.\n\nLet's check Anti-Signals:\n\"anti_signals_present\": [\"dilution\", \"concentration\", \"low_liquidity\"]\nThe prompt says: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\n- dilution: Multiple prior capital raises, warrants. Broadwood has warrants at $30.60. Dilution risk is real.\n- concentration: Broadwood ~39%.\n- low_liquidity: Avg daily volume likely low (options market illiquid, negligible OI). The risk class says \"Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\". This is a hard skip condition in the anti-signal gates.\nAlso, the company is pre-commercial, TTM revenue $1.9M, massive operating losses. It's a small-cap (~$184M market cap) with binary FDA risk.\nThe score is very low (22).\nThresholds for ASYMMETRIC (<$5B):\n< 45: Skip.\n\nTherefore, I must skip.\n\nReasoning: Low score (22) due to lack of broad insider buying, negative cash flows, and triggering anti-signal gates for dilution, concentration, and low liquidity. The binary FDA catalyst is too far out and unpriced for a recommendation. Broadwood's position, while notable, represents a single concentrated buyer rather than a smart-money cluster, and the stock's pre-commercial status with high dilution risk fails the liquidity and quality gates.\n\nLet's double check the scoring to be fair.\nA: 2\nB: 0\nC: 10 (FDA submission + clinical data)\nD: 5 (SOTP gap)\nE: 0\nF: 5 (Above DMA, RSI)\nTotal: 22.\n\nAnti-signal \"low_liquidity\" is a hard gate. \"Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\". The dossier notes options are illiquid with negligible OI, which strongly implies low stock liquidity.\nAlso, \"dilution\" and \"concentration\" are present.\nScore < 45 -> Skip.\n\nI will output the skip JSON.\nCheck format:\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 22,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"smart_money\": 2,\n    \"options_flow\": 0,\n    \"catalyst\": 10,\n    \"mispricing\": 5,\n    \"quality\": 0,\n    \"technical\": 5\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 45 threshold. Low liquidity and dilution/concentration anti-signals trigger hard gates. The single concentrated buyer (Broadwood) does not constitute a smart-money cluster, and the binary FDA catalyst remains too distant and unpriced for a recommendation-grade setup.\"\n}\n\nWait, let's verify the catalyst score. The rubric says:\n10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0% -> No.\n8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon -> FDA submission filed March 25. Decision timeline TBD. I'll give 5 pts for \"pending regulatory review\" or just stick to 5.\nActually, the dossier says FDA decision expected within 3-12 months. That's not imminent. I'll give 5.\nTotal C = 5.\nLet's adjust score to 20 to be conservative, or keep 22. It doesn't matter, it's a skip.\n\nCheck anti-signal rule: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nI will articulate that they apply: dilution risk from warrants and prior raises, concentration risk from Broadwood's 39% stake, and low liquidity makes execution of income structures (the only viable shape per Scout's verdict) impractical without severe slippage.\n\nAll good. I will generate the skip JSON.\nOne minor thing: The prompt says \"Output ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT include reasoning blocks\".\nI will produce exactly the JSON.\nScore breakdown matches rubric caps.\nA: 2\nB: 0\nC: 5\nD: 5\nE: 0\nF: 5\nTotal: 17. I'll use 17.\nWait, let's recalculate F: above 50DMA & 200DMA = 3 pts. RSI 40-65 = 2 pts. Total 5.\nD: SOTP gap ≥ 25% = 5 pts.\nC: 5 pts.\nA: 2 pts.\nB: 0 pts.\nE: 0 pts.\nTotal: 17.\n\nI will output the skip JSON.\nCheck format requirements:\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": <num>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": { ... },\n  \"reason\": \"...\"\n}\nMatches exactly.\nProceed. \nOne check: \"dilution\" anti-signal. The dossier says \"Multiple prior capital raises... warrants at $30.60\". This is a valid dilution risk.\n\"low_liquidity\" anti-signal. Options market illiquid, negligible OI. Valid.\n\"concentration\" anti-signal. Broadwood ~39%. Valid.\nAll gates trigger. Skip is mandatory.\nReady. \nOutput matches request.✅\n</think>\n\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 17,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"smart_money\": 2,\n    \"options_flow\": 0,\n    \"catalyst\": 5,\n    \"mispricing\": 5,\n    \"quality\": 0,\n    \"technical\": 5\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 45 threshold. Three anti-signal gates trigger: dilution risk from warrants and repeated capital raises, extreme concentration with Broadwood holding ~39%, and low liquidity that makes executing the only viable structure (income) impractical without severe slippage. The single concentrated buyer does not form a smart-money cluster, and the FDA catalyst remains too distant and unpriced for a recommendation-grade setup.\"\n}",
      "cleaned_content": "{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 17,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"smart_money\": 2,\n    \"options_flow\": 0,\n    \"catalyst\": 5,\n    \"mispricing\": 5,\n    \"quality\": 0,\n    \"technical\": 5\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 45 threshold. Three anti-signal gates trigger: dilution risk from warrants and repeated capital raises, extreme concentration with Broadwood holding ~39%, and low liquidity that makes executing the only viable structure (income) impractical without severe slippage. The single concentrated buyer does not form a smart-money cluster, and the FDA catalyst remains too distant and unpriced for a recommendation-grade setup.\"\n}",
      "tool_calls": null,
      "finish_reason": "stop"
    }
  ],
  "tool_results": [],
  "final_message": "{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 17,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"smart_money\": 2,\n    \"options_flow\": 0,\n    \"catalyst\": 5,\n    \"mispricing\": 5,\n    \"quality\": 0,\n    \"technical\": 5\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 45 threshold. Three anti-signal gates trigger: dilution risk from warrants and repeated capital raises, extreme concentration with Broadwood holding ~39%, and low liquidity that makes executing the only viable structure (income) impractical without severe slippage. The single concentrated buyer does not form a smart-money cluster, and the FDA catalyst remains too distant and unpriced for a recommendation-grade setup.\"\n}",
  "tool_calls_total": 0,
  "walltime_ms": 38531,
  "stop_reason": "stop",
  "completed_at": "2026-06-16T00:53:28.662Z"
}