{
  "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b",
  "started_at": "2026-06-13T00:44:50.556Z",
  "system_prompt": "You are Catalyst Analyst — the event-rubric scoring stage.\n\nYou receive a catalyst-dossier from Catalyst Scout. Your job is to score it\n0-100 against the CATALYST rubric (DIFFERENT from asymmetric and wheel).\n\nCatalyst-event scoring rubric (100 pts total — for dated binary events):\n  - Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts): is the event dated, named, binary?\n      Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points.\n      Vague \"expected this quarter\" or >60 DTE = ≤10 pts.\n  - Magnitude edge (max 25 pts): IV-implied vs historical realized move.\n      Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\n      Implied move < historical realized by ≥30% AND structure is debit straddle/long premium = market underpaying → long-vol.\n      No edge (implied ≈ realized) = ≤8 pts; reconsider whether to publish.\n  - Direction evidence (max 15 pts): insider P-buys, analyst revisions UP/DOWN, options skew, technicals, news sentiment.\n      ≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points.\n      Mixed signals = straddle/vol play, not directional.\n  - Structure efficiency (max 15 pts): cost-to-payoff ratio.\n      Breakeven inside implied-move range = full points. Outside = ≤5 pts.\n      Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff at target = full points.\n  - Liquidity (max 10 pts): OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\n  - Quality floor (max 10 pts): market cap ≥$500M, price ≥$5, no going-concern, no fraud flags.\n      Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\n\nCatalyst sizing bands by score (DEFINED-RISK structures only):\n  80-100: max conf 5, max size 4.0%\n  70- 79: max conf 4, max size 3.0%\n  60- 69: max conf 4, max size 2.0%\n  45- 59: max conf 2, max size 0.0%\n   0- 44: max conf 1, max size 0.0%\n\nNORMAL PUBLISH FLOOR is 60. Scores 45-59 are paper-track only. Cap at 4% even on best setup — binary events can decay to zero.\nAllowed structures: long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread\n\nDECIDE:\n  - If composite score < 45 → skip with reason\n  - If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED catalyst idea using the\n    recommended structure only if it is measurable, source-backed, and not\n    blocked by a hard gate\n  - If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea using the recommended structure\n  - If structure is not in {long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread} → skip\n  - If anti_signals_present contains a HARD blocker (fraud, going-concern,\n    accounting irregularity, failed quality floor, bad liquidity, no valid\n    contract), skip. Risk warnings such as parabolic price action, rich IV,\n    or sell-the-news risk should be scored and can become paper-track.\n  - If quality_floor.passes_floor is false → skip\n  - If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip. Very near-term events\n    (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed\n    catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually\n    liquid and efficient.\n  - If no candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip (illiquid)\n\nPAPER-TRACKING LANE:\n  - draft.paper_track MUST be true\n  - headline MUST begin with \"Paper Track:\"\n  - thesis_short MUST explicitly say this is a paper-tracked event setup,\n    not an actionable recommendation\n  - risk.position_size_pct MUST be 0\n  - confidence MUST be 1 or 2\n  - exit.max_hold_dte MUST be present so Monitor/Reviewer can judge outcome\n  - Do not use paper_track to rescue bad liquidity, failed quality floor,\n    stale catalyst dates, or anti-signal setups. Those still skip.\n\nOUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\n\nIf skipping:\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": <num 0-100>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": <num>,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": <num>,\n    \"direction_evidence\": <num>,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": <num>,\n    \"liquidity\": <num>,\n    \"quality_floor\": <num>\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Brief reason\"\n}\n\nIf drafting:\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": <num>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": { ... same six fields },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-catalyst-keyphrase\",\n    \"paper_track\": <true if score 45-59, otherwise false>,\n    \"symbol\": \"NVDA\",\n    \"company\": \"NVIDIA Corporation\",\n    \"sector\": \"<sector slug or 'unknown'>\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\" | \"fda_pdufa\" | \"merger_definitive\" | etc,\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long X straddle into Y catalyst — implied move Z% vs realized W%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"1-2 sentence summary of the event setup and the edge.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: what the event is, when, and what the market is pricing.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Specific implied-vs-realized magnitude gap OR direction signals that the market is mispricing.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Why this specific debit structure (cost, breakeven, max payoff).\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"What needs to happen pre-catalyst (e.g., 'IV expansion >15%' or 'analyst raises target ahead of print').\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Specific: 'event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.'\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"long_call\" | \"long_put\" | \"straddle\" | \"debit_call_spread\" | \"debit_put_spread\",\n      \"long_call\":         { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num | \"uncapped\">, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"long_put\":          { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"straddle\":          { \"call_strike\": <num>, \"put_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_debit\": <num>, \"put_debit\": <num>, \"total_debit\": <num>, \"breakeven_high\": <num>, \"breakeven_low\": <num> },\n      \"debit_call_spread\": { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"debit_put_spread\":  { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": <num>,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": <num — dte to expiry>\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Specific scenario where structure decays — usually 'event happens, stock barely moves'.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": <num — must respect catalyst sizing band for the score>,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": <num — equal to net debit>,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [ ... pass through from dossier sources ],\n    \"confidence\": 1-5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick one and only fill that field. Position size\nMUST respect the catalyst sizing band for the score. The headline MUST\nstate the catalyst type and date.\n\nNumeric traceability: every price, strike, debit must come from\ndossier.candidate_contracts. Every implied/realized number must come from\ndossier.implied_vs_realized.",
  "user_prompt": "CURRENT DATE: 2026-06-13. THE YEAR IS 2026.\nDATE RULES — read before writing ANY date:\n  - Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later. Do NOT write 2025 dates — your training prior is stale.\n  - Every option expiry MUST be a real FUTURE date relative to 2026-06-13. Copy expiries verbatim from options_expiries()/the dossier — never infer a year from memory.\n  - Before writing a date, check it: if it is earlier than 2026-06-13, it is WRONG — re-read the live tool output.\n\nCATALYST DOSSIER:\n{\n  \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n  \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n  \"investigation_summary\": \"Micron reports fiscal Q3 (May quarter) earnings on June 24 after market close with 12 DTE. The stock has run from ~$321 to $982 (+122%) in the past 90 days, recently pulling back 9% from its all-time high of $1,089 — a typical pre-earnings re-set for a high-beta momentum name at extreme elevated prices. Implied move via ATM straddle (980 call mid + 980 put mid = ~$179/$981) is 18.3%, more than DOUBLE the historical realized earnings move of ~7-8% across the prior four quarters — a massive vol premium suggesting long premium structures need to be discounted or paired as spreads. Direction signals are broadly bullish: analyst revisions are up (Wolf Research $1,250 PT, top-bank doubles PT), technical setup is bullish (above all moving averages, RSI 60.8 neutral), and options flow shows +$135M net call bias. The CEO's May 29 sales were pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 dispositions — no directional insider signal. Goldman Sachs' caution is a counter-risk but not a disqualifier given the strong analyst consensus. Structure leans: implied >> realized means LONG premium is overpaid → favor defined-risk DEBIT CALL SPREAD to capture upside while avoiding rich vol drag of naked long calls.\",\n  \"verdict\": \"catalyst_setup\",\n  \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n  \"catalyst\": {\n    \"type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"dte\": 11,\n    \"binary\": true,\n    \"outcome_scenarios\": [\n      \"beat → +8-15%\",\n      \"miss → -8-12%\"\n    ]\n  },\n  \"implied_vs_realized\": {\n    \"implied_move_pct\": 18.3,\n    \"historical_avg_move_pct\": 7.9,\n    \"n_historical_events\": 4,\n    \"magnitude_edge_note\": \"Implied vol is 131% above the historical avg realized earnings move of ~7.9%. This signals the market is OVERPAYING for optionality, making naked long premium structures (straddle) expensive and favoring defined-risk debit spreads instead to capture direction without paying full straddle premium.\"\n  },\n  \"direction_signals\": {\n    \"insider_buys_90d\": \"no\",\n    \"analyst_revisions_30d\": \"up\",\n    \"technical_setup\": \"bullish\",\n    \"options_skew\": \"call_skew\",\n    \"news_sentiment\": \"positive\",\n    \"direction_lean\": \"bullish\"\n  },\n  \"structure_recommendation\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n  \"candidate_contracts\": [\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 13,\n      \"long_strike\": 980,\n      \"short_strike\": 1050,\n      \"long_mid\": 91.58,\n      \"short_mid\": 64.25,\n      \"net_debit\": 27.33,\n      \"max_payoff\": 43,\n      \"breakeven\": 1007.33,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 2.62,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 446,\n      \"open_interest_short\": 2445,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 1.37\n    },\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 13,\n      \"long_strike\": 990,\n      \"short_strike\": 1100,\n      \"long_mid\": 87.13,\n      \"short_mid\": 58.63,\n      \"net_debit\": 28.5,\n      \"max_payoff\": 83,\n      \"breakeven\": 1018.5,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 3.75,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 628,\n      \"open_interest_short\": 285,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 1.25\n    },\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"long_call\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 13,\n      \"long_strike\": 1000,\n      \"short_strike\": null,\n      \"long_mid\": 82.75,\n      \"short_mid\": null,\n      \"net_debit\": 82.75,\n      \"max_payoff\": null,\n      \"breakeven\": 1082.75,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 10.3,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 4991,\n      \"open_interest_short\": null,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 3.15\n    }\n  ],\n  \"quality_floor\": {\n    \"market_cap\": 1106994921472,\n    \"price\": 981.61,\n    \"going_concern\": false,\n    \"passes_floor\": true\n  },\n  \"anti_signals_present\": [\n    \"Goldman Sachs cautious on high expectations bar\",\n    \"CEO Mehrotra sold ~34k shares via 10b5-1 plan May 29 (scheduled diversification, not directional signal)\",\n    \"Implied move double historical — straddle/buy naked premium structurally disadvantaged\",\n    \"Stock near all-time highs entering binary event creates elevated risk of IV crush post-event\"\n  ],\n  \"key_risks\": [\n    \"IV collapse after earnings will erode long option value faster than expected\",\n    \"Stock at $981 near ATH means miss scenarios can drop 10-15% violently\",\n    \"Earnings surprise must exceed breakeven ~$1,007 for spread to profit; flat/beat-but-below-estimate likely loses\",\n    \"Goldman Sachs explicitly warns high bar — guidance cuts could spark outsized selloff despite beat potential\",\n    \"Large bid-ask spreads on ITM calls (up to 3.15%) make entry/exit costly\"\n  ],\n  \"sources\": [\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Earnings date confirmed\",\n      \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Goldman cautious note June 12\",\n      \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e53d5b40-2d24-3498-bece-2a5686086fea/why-goldman-is-cautious-on.html\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Wolf Research $1,250 PT + Iran catalyst\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2443746/iran-ceasefire-and-a-1250-price-target-how-to-play-micron-stock-here?.tsrc=rss\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"CEO Form 4 May 29 — scheduled sales (10b5-1)\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Options chain ATM straddle data\",\n      \"url\": \"options_chain(MU, 2026-06-26)\"\n    }\n  ]\n}\n\nScore this against the CATALYST rubric. If composite < 45, skip. Otherwise\ndraft a defined-risk catalyst idea. Output ONLY the JSON object described\nin the system prompt. Do NOT include <think>...</think> blocks — pure JSON only.",
  "completions": [
    {
      "ts": "2026-06-13T00:47:48.064Z",
      "raw_content": "<think>The user wants me to score a catalyst dossier for MU (Micron Technology) against the Catalyst rubric and then either skip or draft a catalyst idea based on the score.\nLet's go through the rubric step by step.\n\n1. Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts):\n   - Event: Fiscal Q3 earnings on 2026-06-24.\n   - DTE: 11 days (from 2026-06-13). Within 7-45 DTE range.\n   - Named in 8-K or earnings cal? Yes, \"earnings(MU)\".\n   - Score: 25/25.\n\n2. Magnitude edge (max 25 pts):\n   - Implied move: 18.3%\n   - Historical avg move: 7.9%\n   - Implied > Historical by > 30%? Yes, 18.3 > 7.9 * 1.3 (10.27). It's 131% above.\n   - Structure: Debit call spread (defined risk).\n   - Edge: Market overpaying vol → short-vol angle, but we are buying a debit spread. The rubric says: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" Wait, the rubric says for debit structure with implied > realized, it's a short-vol angle. But we are buying a debit spread (long directional). Actually, the rubric says: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" This implies buying long premium is bad, but buying a debit spread captures direction while mitigating vol premium. The magnitude edge is strong because implied is double historical, meaning we have a clear edge in avoiding naked long premium and using a spread. I'll score it around 18-20. Let's say 20. The edge is that implied >> realized, so we avoid straddle and use debit spread. The rubric says \"No edge (implied ≈ realized) = ≤8 pts; reconsider whether to publish.\" Here we have a clear edge in structure selection. I'll give 20.\n\n3. Direction evidence (max 15 pts):\n   - Analyst revisions: UP\n   - Technicals: Bullish (above MAs, RSI 60.8)\n   - Options skew: Call skew (+$135M net call bias)\n   - News sentiment: Positive\n   - Insider buys: No, but CEO sales are 10b5-1 (not directional).\n   - ≥3 corroborating signals same direction? Yes: analyst revisions UP, technicals bullish, options skew call. That's 3.\n   - Score: 15/15.\n\n4. Structure efficiency (max 15 pts):\n   - Candidate: Debit call spread 980/1050, expiry 2026-06-26, net debit 28.5, max payoff 83, breakeven 1018.5.\n   - Breakeven distance: 3.75% above current price ($981.61).\n   - Implied move: 18.3% of $981 ≈ $180. So implied range is ~$800 to $1160.\n   - Breakeven $1018.5 is well within the implied move range (upper end).\n   - Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff at target? Yes, explicitly recommended.\n   - Score: 15/15.\n\n5. Liquidity (max 10 pts):\n   - OI ≥500? The 990/1100 spread has long OI 628, short OI 285. Wait, short OI is 285, which is < 500. But the rubric says \"OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\"\n   - Let's check the first contract: 980/1050. Long OI 446 (<500), Short OI 2445. Bid-ask 1.37%.\n   - Second contract: 990/1100. Long OI 628 (≥500), Short OI 285. Bid-ask 1.25%.\n   - Daily volume isn't explicitly given, but OI is decent. I'll assume volume is sufficient for a major tech stock, or give 7/10. The rubric says OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5%. I'll give 8/10.\n\n6. Quality floor (max 10 pts):\n   - Market cap: $1.1T (≥$500M)\n   - Price: $981.61 (≥$5)\n   - Going concern: false\n   - Passes floor: true\n   - Score: 10/10.\n\nComposite score: 25 + 20 + 15 + 15 + 8 + 10 = 93.\nWait, let's re-evaluate magnitude edge. The rubric says: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" This actually points to selling premium, but the dossier recommends a debit call spread to capture direction while mitigating vol drag. The magnitude edge is still there because we are avoiding the overpay. I'll stick with 20.\nActually, the rubric says for magnitude edge: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" It doesn't explicitly penalize debit structures for this, just notes the angle. I'll give 20.\nLet's check the scoring bands: 80-100 → max conf 5, max size 4.0%.\nScore is 93. So it's a normal draft.\n\nWait, check DTE: 11 days. Within 7-45. OK.\nCheck candidate contracts OI: The rubric says \"If no candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip\". Here OI is ≥500 for long leg. OK.\nCheck structure: debit_call_spread is allowed.\nCheck anti_signals: \"Goldman Sachs cautious\", \"CEO sales 10b5-1\", \"Implied move double historical\", \"Stock near ATH\". These are risk warnings, not hard blockers.\nCheck quality floor: passes_floor is true.\nCheck DTE: 11. OK.\nCheck date rules: All dates 2026. OK.\n\nLet's draft the JSON.\nI will use the 990/1100 spread as it has long OI ≥500 and lower bid-ask spread (1.25%).\nStructure: debit_call_spread\nlong_strike: 990\nshort_strike: 1100\nexpiry: 2026-06-26\nnet_debit: 28.5\nmax_payoff: 83\nbreakeven: 1018.5\n\nHeadline: Long MU debit call spread into Q3 earnings (June 24) — implied move 18.3% vs realized 7.9%\nThesis short: Market overprices MU's earnings volatility by 130%+ relative to history; a 990/1100 debit call spread captures the bullish analyst/flow consensus while capping vol premium drag.\nThesis long: Opening... Edge... Structure... Confirm/Kill... Risk...\nEntry: 2-5 days before print.\nExit: 80% max payoff or post-event close. max_hold_dte: 13.\nRisk: bear_case, what_breaks, position_size_pct: 3.0 (within 4.0% band for 80-100 score), max_loss_per_contract: 28.5.\nConfidence: 4 (score 80-100 allows max 5, but given Goldman caution and high price, I'll use 4).\nSources: pass through.\n\nLet's verify scoring breakdown numbers carefully.\nCatalyst clarity: 25\nMagnitude edge: 20 (Implied 18.3% vs Hist 7.9% = 131% premium. Strong edge to use defined-risk spread over naked long.)\nDirection evidence: 15 (Analyst UP, Techs bullish, Options call skew = 3 signals)\nStructure efficiency: 15 (Breakeven 1018.5 is within implied range; cost-efficient vs naked)\nLiquidity: 8 (Long OI 628 ≥500, bid-ask 1.25% ≤5%, volume assumed adequate for mega-cap)\nQuality floor: 10 (Passes all)\nTotal: 93.\n\nWait, the rubric says for magnitude edge: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" This implies that if we are buying a debit structure, we are actually taking a long-vol/directional play, but the magnitude edge is still valid because we are avoiding the overpay. I'll keep 20.\nActually, the rubric says \"No edge (implied ≈ realized) = ≤8 pts\". Since implied >> realized, we get full points or near. I'll give 22.\nLet's stick to 20 for magnitude edge to be conservative, or 25 if we consider the clear structural advantage. I'll give 22.\nTotal: 25+22+15+15+8+10 = 95.\nI'll adjust magnitude edge to 20. Total 93.\n\nCheck sizing band: 80-100 → max size 4.0%. I'll set position_size_pct to 3.0.\nCheck confidence: max 5. I'll set 4.\nCheck max_hold_dte: 13.\nCheck headline: \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 earnings (June 24) — implied move 18.3% vs realized 7.9%\"\nCheck thesis_short: \"Market overprices MU's earnings volatility by 130%+ relative to history; a 990/1100 debit call spread captures the bullish analyst/flow consensus while capping vol premium drag.\"\nCheck thesis_long structure: matches prompt.\nCheck risk: position_size_pct 3.0, max_loss_per_contract 28.5.\nCheck sources: pass through.\nAll dates 2026.\nDTE to catalyst: 11. DTE to expiry: 13.\nEverything aligns.\n\nOne detail: \"If composite score < 45 → skip... If composite score 45-59 → paper-track... If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\". Score is 93, so normal draft.\nCheck \"allowed structures\": debit_call_spread is allowed.\nCheck \"quality floor\": passes_floor true.\nCheck \"liquidity\": OI ≥500? The long leg has 628. The rubric says \"OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\" I'll give 8/10 as daily volume isn't explicitly stated but OI and spread are good.\nCheck \"direction evidence\": 3 signals = 15/15.\nCheck \"catalyst clarity\": 25/25.\nCheck \"magnitude edge\": 20/25.\nCheck \"structure efficiency\": 15/15.\nTotal: 93.\n\nLet's draft carefully.\nI will ensure all fields match the schema exactly.\nOne thing: The prompt says \"breakeven inside implied-move range = full points.\" Implied move is 18.3% of 981 = ±180. Range: 801 to 1161. Breakeven 1018.5 is inside. Full 15.\nMagnitude edge: Implied 18.3% vs Hist 7.9%. >30% diff. Debit structure. Edge is strong. I'll give 22.\nTotal: 25+22+15+15+8+10 = 95.\nI'll use 95.\n\nWait, the rubric says for magnitude edge: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" This is a note, not a penalty. It just explains the angle. I'll give 20.\nLet's stick with 93.\n\nConstruct JSON.\nCheck field names exactly:\n\"skip\": false\n\"score\": 93\n\"score_breakdown\": { \"catalyst_clarity\": 25, \"magnitude_edge\": 20, \"direction_evidence\": 15, \"structure_efficiency\": 15, \"liquidity\": 8, \"quality_floor\": 10 }\n\"draft\": { ... }\nAll good.\nI will generate the JSON now.\nOne minor point: \"max_hold_dte\" must be present. I'll put 13.\n\"position_size_pct\" must respect band: 80-100 → max 4.0%. I'll put 3.0.\n\"confidence\" 1-5. I'll put 4.\n\"analyst\": \"research-desk\"\n\"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\"\n\"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\nAll matches schema.\nProceed. \nSelf-Correction/Refinement during thought:\nCheck liquidity score: The prompt says \"OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\" I don't have daily volume, but for a $1T company, it's safe to assume >50. I'll give 8/10.\nCheck magnitude edge: The rubric says \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" This implies that for a debit structure, the edge is actually in *avoiding* the overpay, which supports using a spread. I'll keep 20.\nCheck direction evidence: 3 signals → 15.\nCheck structure efficiency: 15.\nCheck catalyst clarity: 25.\nCheck quality floor: 10.\nTotal 93.\nAll good.\nOutput matches schema exactly.\nProceeds. \nGenerating JSON. \nNote: I will ensure the JSON is strictly formatted and contains no markdown fences as requested (\"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\"). Actually, the prompt says \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\", so I will just output the raw JSON string.\nWait, the prompt says: \"OUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\"\nI will output raw JSON.\nAll set. \nLet's produce it. \n[Self-Correction/Verification during generation prep]\nCheck DTE rule: \"Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later.\" -> 2026-06-26, 2026-06-24. OK.\nCheck \"breakeven inside implied-move range = full points.\" -> 1018.5 is inside 801-1161. OK.\nCheck \"Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff at target = full points.\" -> Yes.\nCheck \"If composite score < 45 → skip...\" -> 93 >= 60, so draft.\nCheck \"position_size_pct MUST respect the catalyst sizing band for the score.\" -> 80-100 band is max 4.0%. I'll use 3.0.\nCheck \"confidence MUST be 1 or 2\" for paper track, but this is normal track, so 1-5. I'll use 4.\nCheck \"headline MUST begin with 'Paper Track:'\" only for paper track. This is normal, so just standard headline.\nAll constraints met.\nOutput matches exactly.\nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> JSON string. \n(Note: I will make sure the JSON is valid and strictly follows the schema.)\nOne detail: `thesis_long` is an array of strings. I will format it exactly as requested.\n`exit.max_hold_dte` is a number.\n`risk.position_size_pct` is a number.\n`confidence` is a number.\nAll good.\nDone. \nOutput matches response. \nProceeds. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]\n\"OUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\"\nI will output just the JSON object.\nReady. \n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 93,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-13-MU-Q3-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 earnings (June 24) — implied move 18.3% vs realized 7.9%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Market overprices MU's earnings volatility by 130%+ relative to history; a 990/1100 debit call spread captures the bullish analyst/flow consensus while capping vol premium drag.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings on 2026-06-24, 11 DTE. The stock has rallied 122% over the past 90 days to ~$981, pulling back 9% from its ATH. The market is pricing an 18.3% implied move via the ATM straddle, which is 131% above the historical average earnings move of 7.9% across the prior four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"The extreme implied vol premium makes long premium (straddle/naked calls) structurally disadvantaged. However, directional signals are strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wolf Research $1,250 PT), technicals are bullish (above all MAs, RSI 60.8), and options flow shows +$135M net call bias. Using a defined-risk debit call spread isolates the directional upside while mitigating the cost of overpriced volatility.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"990/1100 debit call spread expiring 2026-06-26. Net debit of $28.50. Max payoff of $83.00 (2.9x risk). Breakeven at $1,018.50 (+3.75% from spot). This structure is significantly cheaper than a naked long call for equivalent upside exposure at the target, preserving capital if the stock consolidates post-earnings.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-event analyst upgrades or sustained call skew expansion >15% ahead of print. Kills: Guidance cuts despite a beat (Goldman Sachs caution on high expectations bar), or a flat print that keeps MU below $1,007, triggering rapid time decay in the final 11 DTE.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. IV collapse post-earnings will accelerate time decay. Pre-empted disclosure or macro headwinds could cap upside before expiry.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"debit_call_spread\": {\n        \"long_strike\": 990,\n        \"short_strike\": 1100,\n        \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n        \"net_debit\": 28.5,\n        \"max_payoff\": 83,\n        \"breakeven\": 1018.5\n      }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 981.61,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 13\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or dips on guidance caution; implied vol crush accelerates theta decay, leaving spread at ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush; Goldman's caution materializes as a guidance cut despite a beat.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 3.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 28.5,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date confirmed\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Goldman cautious note June 12\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e53d5b40-2d24-3498-bece-2a5686086fea/why-goldman-is-cautious-on.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wolf Research $1,250 PT + Iran catalyst\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2443746/iran-ceasefire-and-a-1250-price-target-how-to-play-micron-stock-here?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"CEO Form 4 May 29 — scheduled sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Options chain ATM straddle data\",\n        \"url\": \"options_chain(MU, 2026-06-26)\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\nAll constraints checked. Output matches. Proceeds. \nOne minor thing: The prompt says \"breakeven inside implied-move range = full points.\" I gave 15. Correct.\n\"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" I gave 20. Correct.\n\"Direction evidence: ≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points.\" I gave 15. Correct.\n\"Liquidity: OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\" I gave 8. Correct.\n\"Quality floor: passes_floor true = 10.\" Correct.\n\"Catalyst clarity: Dated within 7-45 DTE + named = full points.\" I gave 25. Correct.\nTotal 93.\nReady. \nOutput matches exactly.\nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] (raw JSON)\n(Note: I will ensure no markdown formatting like ```json is used, as per \"no fences\".)\nActually, the prompt says \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\". I will output raw JSON.\nDone. \n(Self-Correction/Note during thought: I'll make sure the JSON is perfectly valid and matches the schema exactly. I will remove any markdown code blocks to strictly follow \"no fences\".)\nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n</think>\n\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 93,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-13-MU-Q3-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 earnings (June 24) — implied move 18.3% vs realized 7.9%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Market overprices MU's earnings volatility by 130%+ relative to history; a 990/1100 debit call spread captures the bullish analyst/flow consensus while capping vol premium drag.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings on 2026-06-24, 11 DTE. The stock has rallied 122% over the past 90 days to ~$981, pulling back 9% from its ATH. The market is pricing an 18.3% implied move via the ATM straddle, which is 131% above the historical average earnings move of 7.9% across the prior four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"The extreme implied vol premium makes long premium (straddle/naked calls) structurally disadvantaged. However, directional signals are strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wolf Research $1,250 PT), technicals are bullish (above all MAs, RSI 60.8), and options flow shows +$135M net call bias. Using a defined-risk debit call spread isolates the directional upside while mitigating the cost of overpriced volatility.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"990/1100 debit call spread expiring 2026-06-26. Net debit of $28.50. Max payoff of $83.00 (2.9x risk). Breakeven at $1,018.50 (+3.75% from spot). This structure is significantly cheaper than a naked long call for equivalent upside exposure at the target, preserving capital if the stock consolidates post-earnings.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-event analyst upgrades or sustained call skew expansion >15% ahead of print. Kills: Guidance cuts despite a beat (Goldman Sachs caution on high expectations bar), or a flat print that keeps MU below $1,007, triggering rapid time decay in the final 11 DTE.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. IV collapse post-earnings will accelerate time decay. Pre-empted disclosure or macro headwinds could cap upside before expiry.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"debit_call_spread\": {\n        \"long_strike\": 990,\n        \"short_strike\": 1100,\n        \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n        \"net_debit\": 28.5,\n        \"max_payoff\": 83,\n        \"breakeven\": 1018.5\n      }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 981.61,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 13\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or dips on guidance caution; implied vol crush accelerates theta decay, leaving spread at ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush; Goldman's caution materializes as a guidance cut despite a beat.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 3.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 28.5,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date confirmed\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Goldman cautious note June 12\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e53d5b40-2d24-3498-bece-2a5686086fea/why-goldman-is-cautious-on.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wolf Research $1,250 PT + Iran catalyst\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2443746/iran-ceasefire-and-a-1250-price-target-how-to-play-micron-stock-here?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"CEO Form 4 May 29 — scheduled sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Options chain ATM straddle data\",\n        \"url\": \"options_chain(MU, 2026-06-26)\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
      "cleaned_content": "{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 93,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-13-MU-Q3-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 earnings (June 24) — implied move 18.3% vs realized 7.9%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Market overprices MU's earnings volatility by 130%+ relative to history; a 990/1100 debit call spread captures the bullish analyst/flow consensus while capping vol premium drag.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings on 2026-06-24, 11 DTE. The stock has rallied 122% over the past 90 days to ~$981, pulling back 9% from its ATH. The market is pricing an 18.3% implied move via the ATM straddle, which is 131% above the historical average earnings move of 7.9% across the prior four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"The extreme implied vol premium makes long premium (straddle/naked calls) structurally disadvantaged. However, directional signals are strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wolf Research $1,250 PT), technicals are bullish (above all MAs, RSI 60.8), and options flow shows +$135M net call bias. Using a defined-risk debit call spread isolates the directional upside while mitigating the cost of overpriced volatility.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"990/1100 debit call spread expiring 2026-06-26. Net debit of $28.50. Max payoff of $83.00 (2.9x risk). Breakeven at $1,018.50 (+3.75% from spot). This structure is significantly cheaper than a naked long call for equivalent upside exposure at the target, preserving capital if the stock consolidates post-earnings.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-event analyst upgrades or sustained call skew expansion >15% ahead of print. Kills: Guidance cuts despite a beat (Goldman Sachs caution on high expectations bar), or a flat print that keeps MU below $1,007, triggering rapid time decay in the final 11 DTE.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. IV collapse post-earnings will accelerate time decay. Pre-empted disclosure or macro headwinds could cap upside before expiry.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"debit_call_spread\": {\n        \"long_strike\": 990,\n        \"short_strike\": 1100,\n        \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n        \"net_debit\": 28.5,\n        \"max_payoff\": 83,\n        \"breakeven\": 1018.5\n      }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 981.61,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 13\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or dips on guidance caution; implied vol crush accelerates theta decay, leaving spread at ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush; Goldman's caution materializes as a guidance cut despite a beat.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 3.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 28.5,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date confirmed\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Goldman cautious note June 12\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e53d5b40-2d24-3498-bece-2a5686086fea/why-goldman-is-cautious-on.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wolf Research $1,250 PT + Iran catalyst\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2443746/iran-ceasefire-and-a-1250-price-target-how-to-play-micron-stock-here?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"CEO Form 4 May 29 — scheduled sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Options chain ATM straddle data\",\n        \"url\": \"options_chain(MU, 2026-06-26)\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
      "tool_calls": null,
      "finish_reason": "stop"
    }
  ],
  "tool_results": [],
  "final_message": "{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 93,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 15,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 15,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-13-MU-Q3-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"semiconductors\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 earnings (June 24) — implied move 18.3% vs realized 7.9%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Market overprices MU's earnings volatility by 130%+ relative to history; a 990/1100 debit call spread captures the bullish analyst/flow consensus while capping vol premium drag.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 earnings on 2026-06-24, 11 DTE. The stock has rallied 122% over the past 90 days to ~$981, pulling back 9% from its ATH. The market is pricing an 18.3% implied move via the ATM straddle, which is 131% above the historical average earnings move of 7.9% across the prior four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"The extreme implied vol premium makes long premium (straddle/naked calls) structurally disadvantaged. However, directional signals are strongly bullish: analyst revisions are UP (Wolf Research $1,250 PT), technicals are bullish (above all MAs, RSI 60.8), and options flow shows +$135M net call bias. Using a defined-risk debit call spread isolates the directional upside while mitigating the cost of overpriced volatility.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"990/1100 debit call spread expiring 2026-06-26. Net debit of $28.50. Max payoff of $83.00 (2.9x risk). Breakeven at $1,018.50 (+3.75% from spot). This structure is significantly cheaper than a naked long call for equivalent upside exposure at the target, preserving capital if the stock consolidates post-earnings.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-event analyst upgrades or sustained call skew expansion >15% ahead of print. Kills: Guidance cuts despite a beat (Goldman Sachs caution on high expectations bar), or a flat print that keeps MU below $1,007, triggering rapid time decay in the final 11 DTE.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium. IV collapse post-earnings will accelerate time decay. Pre-empted disclosure or macro headwinds could cap upside before expiry.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"debit_call_spread\": {\n        \"long_strike\": 990,\n        \"short_strike\": 1100,\n        \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n        \"net_debit\": 28.5,\n        \"max_payoff\": 83,\n        \"breakeven\": 1018.5\n      }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 981.61,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 13\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock barely moves or dips on guidance caution; implied vol crush accelerates theta decay, leaving spread at ~30% of paid premium.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush; Goldman's caution materializes as a guidance cut despite a beat.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 3.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 28.5,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings date confirmed\",\n        \"url\": \"earnings(MU)\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Goldman cautious note June 12\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e53d5b40-2d24-3498-bece-2a5686086fea/why-goldman-is-cautious-on.html\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Wolf Research $1,250 PT + Iran catalyst\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2443746/iran-ceasefire-and-a-1250-price-target-how-to-play-micron-stock-here?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"CEO Form 4 May 29 — scheduled sales (10b5-1)\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Options chain ATM straddle data\",\n        \"url\": \"options_chain(MU, 2026-06-26)\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
  "tool_calls_total": 0,
  "walltime_ms": 177509,
  "stop_reason": "stop",
  "completed_at": "2026-06-13T00:47:48.065Z"
}