{
  "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b",
  "started_at": "2026-06-11T16:25:10.535Z",
  "system_prompt": "You are Catalyst Analyst — the event-rubric scoring stage.\n\nYou receive a catalyst-dossier from Catalyst Scout. Your job is to score it\n0-100 against the CATALYST rubric (DIFFERENT from asymmetric and wheel).\n\nCatalyst-event scoring rubric (100 pts total — for dated binary events):\n  - Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts): is the event dated, named, binary?\n      Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points.\n      Vague \"expected this quarter\" or >60 DTE = ≤10 pts.\n  - Magnitude edge (max 25 pts): IV-implied vs historical realized move.\n      Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\n      Implied move < historical realized by ≥30% AND structure is debit straddle/long premium = market underpaying → long-vol.\n      No edge (implied ≈ realized) = ≤8 pts; reconsider whether to publish.\n  - Direction evidence (max 15 pts): insider P-buys, analyst revisions UP/DOWN, options skew, technicals, news sentiment.\n      ≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points.\n      Mixed signals = straddle/vol play, not directional.\n  - Structure efficiency (max 15 pts): cost-to-payoff ratio.\n      Breakeven inside implied-move range = full points. Outside = ≤5 pts.\n      Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff at target = full points.\n  - Liquidity (max 10 pts): OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\n  - Quality floor (max 10 pts): market cap ≥$500M, price ≥$5, no going-concern, no fraud flags.\n      Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\n\nCatalyst sizing bands by score (DEFINED-RISK structures only):\n  80-100: max conf 5, max size 4.0%\n  70- 79: max conf 4, max size 3.0%\n  60- 69: max conf 4, max size 2.0%\n  45- 59: max conf 2, max size 0.0%\n   0- 44: max conf 1, max size 0.0%\n\nNORMAL PUBLISH FLOOR is 60. Scores 45-59 are paper-track only. Cap at 4% even on best setup — binary events can decay to zero.\nAllowed structures: long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread\n\nDECIDE:\n  - If composite score < 45 → skip with reason\n  - If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED catalyst idea using the\n    recommended structure only if it is measurable, source-backed, and not\n    blocked by a hard gate\n  - If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea using the recommended structure\n  - If structure is not in {long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread} → skip\n  - If anti_signals_present contains a HARD blocker (fraud, going-concern,\n    accounting irregularity, failed quality floor, bad liquidity, no valid\n    contract), skip. Risk warnings such as parabolic price action, rich IV,\n    or sell-the-news risk should be scored and can become paper-track.\n  - If quality_floor.passes_floor is false → skip\n  - If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip. Very near-term events\n    (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed\n    catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually\n    liquid and efficient.\n  - If no candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip (illiquid)\n\nPAPER-TRACKING LANE:\n  - draft.paper_track MUST be true\n  - headline MUST begin with \"Paper Track:\"\n  - thesis_short MUST explicitly say this is a paper-tracked event setup,\n    not an actionable recommendation\n  - risk.position_size_pct MUST be 0\n  - confidence MUST be 1 or 2\n  - exit.max_hold_dte MUST be present so Monitor/Reviewer can judge outcome\n  - Do not use paper_track to rescue bad liquidity, failed quality floor,\n    stale catalyst dates, or anti-signal setups. Those still skip.\n\nOUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\n\nIf skipping:\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": <num 0-100>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": <num>,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": <num>,\n    \"direction_evidence\": <num>,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": <num>,\n    \"liquidity\": <num>,\n    \"quality_floor\": <num>\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Brief reason\"\n}\n\nIf drafting:\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": <num>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": { ... same six fields },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-catalyst-keyphrase\",\n    \"paper_track\": <true if score 45-59, otherwise false>,\n    \"symbol\": \"NVDA\",\n    \"company\": \"NVIDIA Corporation\",\n    \"sector\": \"<sector slug or 'unknown'>\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\" | \"fda_pdufa\" | \"merger_definitive\" | etc,\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long X straddle into Y catalyst — implied move Z% vs realized W%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"1-2 sentence summary of the event setup and the edge.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: what the event is, when, and what the market is pricing.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Specific implied-vs-realized magnitude gap OR direction signals that the market is mispricing.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Why this specific debit structure (cost, breakeven, max payoff).\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"What needs to happen pre-catalyst (e.g., 'IV expansion >15%' or 'analyst raises target ahead of print').\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Specific: 'event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.'\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"long_call\" | \"long_put\" | \"straddle\" | \"debit_call_spread\" | \"debit_put_spread\",\n      \"long_call\":         { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num | \"uncapped\">, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"long_put\":          { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"straddle\":          { \"call_strike\": <num>, \"put_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_debit\": <num>, \"put_debit\": <num>, \"total_debit\": <num>, \"breakeven_high\": <num>, \"breakeven_low\": <num> },\n      \"debit_call_spread\": { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"debit_put_spread\":  { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": <num>,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": <num — dte to expiry>\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Specific scenario where structure decays — usually 'event happens, stock barely moves'.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": <num — must respect catalyst sizing band for the score>,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": <num — equal to net debit>,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [ ... pass through from dossier sources ],\n    \"confidence\": 1-5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick one and only fill that field. Position size\nMUST respect the catalyst sizing band for the score. The headline MUST\nstate the catalyst type and date.\n\nNumeric traceability: every price, strike, debit must come from\ndossier.candidate_contracts. Every implied/realized number must come from\ndossier.implied_vs_realized.",
  "user_prompt": "CURRENT DATE: 2026-06-11. THE YEAR IS 2026.\nDATE RULES — read before writing ANY date:\n  - Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later. Do NOT write 2025 dates — your training prior is stale.\n  - Every option expiry MUST be a real FUTURE date relative to 2026-06-11. Copy expiries verbatim from options_expiries()/the dossier — never infer a year from memory.\n  - Before writing a date, check it: if it is earlier than 2026-06-11, it is WRONG — re-read the live tool output.\n\nCATALYST DOSSIER:\n{\n  \"symbol\": \"ACB\",\n  \"company\": \"Aurora Cannabis Inc.\",\n  \"investigation_summary\": \"Earnings catalyst confirmed for June 11, 2026 — the event has already printed. ACB reported record annual revenue and adjusted EBITDA for FY2026 but guided that FY2027 will be a 'reset year' due to Canadian medical reimbursement changes weighing on revenue/margins. The stock has already cratered ~8.63% today (from ~$3.29 to $3.01). Technicals are bearish — ACB trades below both the 50-DMA (3.46) and 200-DMA (4.22), with RSI at 32.9 near oversold. The analyst target of $6.23 vs current ~$3 implies substantial upside but is based on only 1 analyst covering the name, so conviction is low. Options expiring June 18 (7 DTE from today) offer a defined-risk structure to express post-earnings views. Implied move via ATM straddle (~0.26/$3 = 8.7%) is modestly above historical realized avg of ~6-7%, creating slight vol-richness — favor debit spreads over naked premium.\",\n  \"verdict\": \"catalyst_setup\",\n  \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n  \"catalyst\": {\n    \"type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"date\": \"2026-06-11\",\n    \"dte\": 0,\n    \"binary\": true,\n    \"outcome_scenarios\": [\n      \"beat (record FY26 revenue + strong EBITDA) → stock stabilizes, short-term bounce possible given oversold RSI(32.9)\",\n      \"miss / soft guidance → continued bleed toward $2.50-$2.70 range on Canadian reimbursement headwinds and reset-year narrative\"\n    ]\n  },\n  \"implied_vs_realized\": {\n    \"implied_move_pct\": 8.66,\n    \"historical_avg_move_pct\": 6.14,\n    \"n_historical_events\": 4,\n    \"magnitude_edge_note\": \"Implied (ATM straddle: $0.13 call + $0.13 put = $0.26 / ~$3 spot = 8.66%) is modestly above historical realized avg abs(1-day move) of ~6.14% across last 4 earnings dates. Vol is slightly rich — favor debit spreads over naked straddles.\"\n  },\n  \"direction_signals\": {\n    \"insider_buys_90d\": \"unknown\",\n    \"analyst_revisions_30d\": \"none\",\n    \"technical_setup\": \"bearish\",\n    \"options_skew\": \"flat\",\n    \"news_sentiment\": \"negative\",\n    \"direction_lean\": \"bearish\"\n  },\n  \"structure_recommendation\": \"debit_put_spread\",\n  \"candidate_contracts\": [\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"debit_put_spread\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-18\",\n      \"dte\": 7,\n      \"long_strike\": 2.5,\n      \"short_strike\": 3,\n      \"long_mid\": null,\n      \"short_mid\": null,\n      \"net_debit\": null,\n      \"max_payoff\": 0.5,\n      \"breakeven\": null,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": null,\n      \"open_interest_long\": null,\n      \"open_interest_short\": null,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": null\n    }\n  ],\n  \"quality_floor\": {\n    \"market_cap\": 177746400,\n    \"price\": 3.0062,\n    \"going_concern\": false,\n    \"passes_floor\": true\n  },\n  \"anti_signals_present\": [\n    \"stock already down -8.6% today; binary move largely realized at time of analysis\",\n    \"earnings catalyst DTE = 0 — event has printed; residual gamma trade but asymmetric edge is diminished\",\n    \"only 1 analyst covering the name — low consensus conviction on direction\",\n    \"no insider Form 4 data available to corroborate directional view\"\n  ],\n  \"key_risks\": [\n    \"Catalyst (earnings) already resolved as of analysis date; residual post-event premium decay risk in any structure held past today\",\n    \"Stock below both 50-DMA and 200-DMA — no technical support floors above $3.46\",\n    \"Only 1 analyst covering ACB limits fundamental signal reliability\",\n    \"Cannabis sector faces ongoing regulatory uncertainty (Canadian reimbursement changes, U.S. DEA scheduling)\",\n    \"Minimal OI depth on near-term June 18 strikes; liquidity risk in filling spreads\",\n    \"ACB is a penny-stock-tier cannabis name ($3 price) — elevated bid/ask spread and slippage likely\"\n  ],\n  \"sources\": [\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Earnings confirmation & history\",\n      \"url\": \"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ACB\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"FY2026 earnings print & FY2027 guidance warning\",\n      \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/aurora-cannabis-down-4-u-122359071.html\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Record annual revenue and adjusted EBITDA press release\",\n      \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/aurora-cannabis-announces-full-fiscal-110500025.html\"\n    }\n  ]\n}\n\nScore this against the CATALYST rubric. If composite < 45, skip. Otherwise\ndraft a defined-risk catalyst idea. Output ONLY the JSON object described\nin the system prompt. Do NOT include <think>...</think> blocks — pure JSON only.",
  "completions": [
    {
      "ts": "2026-06-11T16:25:53.276Z",
      "raw_content": "<think>The user wants me to score a catalyst dossier for the stock \"ACB\" (Aurora Cannabis Inc.) against the CATALYST rubric.\nI need to output a JSON object strictly following the specified format.\nLet's go through the scoring criteria:\n1. Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts): Event dated, named, binary? Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points. Vague \"expected this quarter\" or >60 DTE = ≤10 pts.\n   - The dossier says: \"Earnings catalyst confirmed for June 11, 2026 — the event has already printed.\" DTE is 0.\n   - Since DTE is 0, it's outside the 7-45 DTE window. It's a past event. I will score this low, maybe 5 pts.\n2. Magnitude edge (max 25 pts): Implied vs realized.\n   - Implied move: 8.66%. Historical avg: 6.14%. Implied is modestly above realized. Structure recommendation is debit_put_spread.\n   - Since the event has already printed, the implied move is irrelevant for a new trade. But I'll score based on the data given: ~5 pts because the move is already realized.\n3. Direction evidence (max 15 pts): Insider P-buys, analyst revisions, options skew, technicals, news sentiment.\n   - Technicals: bearish. News sentiment: negative. Options skew: flat. Only 1 analyst. No insider buys.\n   - Mixed/weak signals. Score: 3 pts.\n4. Structure efficiency (max 15 pts): Cost-to-payoff ratio. Breakeven inside implied move range.\n   - Candidate contract: debit_put_spread, long 2.5, short 3, expiry 2026-06-18. Net debit is null, but usually this would be cheap. Max payoff 0.5. Since data is missing, I'll estimate low efficiency due to lack of data and post-event status. Score: 4 pts.\n5. Liquidity (max 10 pts): OI ≥500 + volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5%.\n   - OI is null in candidate contracts. Key risks mention \"Minimal OI depth\". Score: 2 pts.\n6. Quality floor (max 10 pts): Market cap ≥$500M, price ≥$5.\n   - Market cap: $177.7M (<$500M). Price: $3.00 (<$5). Quality floor.passes_floor is true in the dossier, but the rubric says \"Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\" Wait, the rubric says: \"market cap ≥$500M, price ≥$5, no going-concern, no fraud flags. Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\"\n   - The dossier says passes_floor: true, but by the rubric's explicit rule, it fails quality floor. I will score it 0 or 2, but note the skip condition. Actually, the rubric says \"Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\" I will score it 2 (since it passed the dossier's floor, but fails the rubric's strict floor, I'll stick to the rubric's instruction to skip if <5, but I'll score it 2 for completeness or 0). I'll score it 2, but the skip condition applies.\n   - Composite score will be well below 45.\n   - DTE to catalyst is 0. \"If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip.\"\n   - So I must skip.\n\nLet's calculate scores carefully:\nCatalyst clarity: 5 (DTE=0, event printed)\nMagnitude edge: 5 (event printed, implied/relevant)\nDirection evidence: 3 (bearish, weak)\nStructure efficiency: 4 (null data, post-event)\nLiquidity: 2 (minimal OI)\nQuality floor: 2 (fails $500M/price≥$5, but dossier says passes_floor=true; I'll score 2 to reflect rubric failure)\nTotal: ~21.\nSkip reason: Catalyst date is in the past (DTE=0), event has already printed. Fails quality floor (price <$5, market cap <$500M). Low liquidity and weak directional signals.\n\nI will construct the JSON output strictly.\nCheck format:\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 21,\n  \"score_breakdown\": { ... },\n  \"reason\": \"...\"\n}\n\nWait, the prompt says: \"If quality_floor.passes_floor is false → skip\". The dossier says it's true, but the rubric says \"market cap ≥$500M, price ≥$5... Sub-5 here means SKIP\". I will score it 0 for quality floor to align with the rubric, or just note it in the reason. I'll give it 2 points as per the rubric's scale but note the failure. Actually, I'll just score it 2 and say it fails the strict floor. Or I'll score it 0. I'll stick to 2.\n\nLet's verify DTE rule: \"If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip.\" DTE is 0. So skip.\nI will output the JSON.\n\nStructure of score_breakdown:\n\"catalyst_clarity\": 5,\n\"magnitude_edge\": 5,\n\"direction_evidence\": 3,\n\"structure_efficiency\": 4,\n\"liquidity\": 2,\n\"quality_floor\": 2\n\nTotal: 21.\n\nReason: \"Catalyst date is in the past (DTE = 0); event has already printed. Fails strict quality floor (price <$5, market cap <$500M). Minimal OI/liquidity and weak directional signals post-print.\"\n\nCheck constraints: \"ONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE.\" -> skip object.\n\"OUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\"\nI will produce exactly the JSON.\nAll dates in 2026 or later? Not applicable for skip.\nI will ensure the JSON matches the schema exactly.\nProceed. \nOne minor point: The rubric says \"Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\" So I should probably score quality_floor as 0 or just note it. I'll score it 0 to be safe, or 2. I'll keep it 2 but the reason covers it. Actually, the rubric says \"Sub-5 here means SKIP\", so I'll score it 0. Total 20.\nI'll adjust score to 20.\nLet's draft. \nOutput matches requested format.\nDone. \nSelf-Correction/Verification during thought:\n- Check DTE rule: \"If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip.\" DTE is 0. So definitely skip.\n- Check quality floor: market cap $177M, price $3.00. Rubric says ≥$500M and ≥$5. So fails. Score 0.\n- Score breakdown: 5+5+3+4+2+0 = 19.\n- I will output exactly as requested.\n- No extra text.\n- JSON structure matches.\nReady. \nOutput generation. \n```json\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 19,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 5,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 5,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 3,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 4,\n    \"liquidity\": 2,\n    \"quality_floor\": 0\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Catalyst date is in the past (DTE = 0); event has already printed. Fails strict quality floor (price <$5, market cap <$500M). Minimal OI/liquidity and weak directional signals post-print.\"\n}\n```\nWait, the prompt says \"Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\" So scoring 0 is correct.\nAll good.\nProceeds. \nOutput matches exactly.✅\nNote: I will make sure the JSON is valid and strictly follows the schema. No markdown fences as per \"no fences\" instruction? The prompt says \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\". I will output raw JSON.\nDone. \nLet's generate. \n(Self-Correction/Refinement during thought)\nWait, the prompt says: \"If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip.\" DTE is 0. So it's strictly a skip.\nThe score breakdown should sum to the score. 5+5+3+4+2+0 = 19.\nI will output exactly the JSON.\nDone. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n</think>\n\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 19,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 5,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 5,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 3,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 4,\n    \"liquidity\": 2,\n    \"quality_floor\": 0\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Catalyst date is in the past (DTE = 0); event has already printed. Fails strict quality floor (price <$5, market cap <$500M). Minimal OI/liquidity and weak directional signals post-print.\"\n}",
      "cleaned_content": "{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 19,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 5,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 5,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 3,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 4,\n    \"liquidity\": 2,\n    \"quality_floor\": 0\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Catalyst date is in the past (DTE = 0); event has already printed. Fails strict quality floor (price <$5, market cap <$500M). Minimal OI/liquidity and weak directional signals post-print.\"\n}",
      "tool_calls": null,
      "finish_reason": "stop"
    }
  ],
  "tool_results": [],
  "final_message": "{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": 19,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 5,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 5,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 3,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 4,\n    \"liquidity\": 2,\n    \"quality_floor\": 0\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Catalyst date is in the past (DTE = 0); event has already printed. Fails strict quality floor (price <$5, market cap <$500M). Minimal OI/liquidity and weak directional signals post-print.\"\n}",
  "tool_calls_total": 0,
  "walltime_ms": 42742,
  "stop_reason": "stop",
  "completed_at": "2026-06-11T16:25:53.277Z"
}