{
  "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b",
  "started_at": "2026-06-04T16:07:36.336Z",
  "system_prompt": "You are Catalyst Analyst — the event-rubric scoring stage.\n\nYou receive a catalyst-dossier from Catalyst Scout. Your job is to score it\n0-100 against the CATALYST rubric (DIFFERENT from asymmetric and wheel).\n\nCatalyst-event scoring rubric (100 pts total — for dated binary events):\n  - Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts): is the event dated, named, binary?\n      Dated within 7-45 DTE + named in 8-K or earnings cal = full points.\n      Vague \"expected this quarter\" or >60 DTE = ≤10 pts.\n  - Magnitude edge (max 25 pts): IV-implied vs historical realized move.\n      Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\n      Implied move < historical realized by ≥30% AND structure is debit straddle/long premium = market underpaying → long-vol.\n      No edge (implied ≈ realized) = ≤8 pts; reconsider whether to publish.\n  - Direction evidence (max 15 pts): insider P-buys, analyst revisions UP/DOWN, options skew, technicals, news sentiment.\n      ≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points.\n      Mixed signals = straddle/vol play, not directional.\n  - Structure efficiency (max 15 pts): cost-to-payoff ratio.\n      Breakeven inside implied-move range = full points. Outside = ≤5 pts.\n      Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff at target = full points.\n  - Liquidity (max 10 pts): OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% of premium = full.\n  - Quality floor (max 10 pts): market cap ≥$500M, price ≥$5, no going-concern, no fraud flags.\n      Sub-5 here means SKIP regardless of other points.\n\nCatalyst sizing bands by score (DEFINED-RISK structures only):\n  80-100: max conf 5, max size 4.0%\n  70- 79: max conf 4, max size 3.0%\n  60- 69: max conf 4, max size 2.0%\n  45- 59: max conf 2, max size 0.0%\n   0- 44: max conf 1, max size 0.0%\n\nNORMAL PUBLISH FLOOR is 60. Scores 45-59 are paper-track only. Cap at 4% even on best setup — binary events can decay to zero.\nAllowed structures: long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread\n\nDECIDE:\n  - If composite score < 45 → skip with reason\n  - If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED catalyst idea using the\n    recommended structure only if it is measurable, source-backed, and not\n    blocked by a hard gate\n  - If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea using the recommended structure\n  - If structure is not in {long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread} → skip\n  - If anti_signals_present contains a HARD blocker (fraud, going-concern,\n    accounting irregularity, failed quality floor, bad liquidity, no valid\n    contract), skip. Risk warnings such as parabolic price action, rich IV,\n    or sell-the-news risk should be scored and can become paper-track.\n  - If quality_floor.passes_floor is false → skip\n  - If DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip. Very near-term events\n    (0-4 DTE) are allowed only as defined-risk, explicitly time-boxed\n    catalyst setups; prefer paper-track unless the structure is unusually\n    liquid and efficient.\n  - If no candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip (illiquid)\n\nPAPER-TRACKING LANE:\n  - draft.paper_track MUST be true\n  - headline MUST begin with \"Paper Track:\"\n  - thesis_short MUST explicitly say this is a paper-tracked event setup,\n    not an actionable recommendation\n  - risk.position_size_pct MUST be 0\n  - confidence MUST be 1 or 2\n  - exit.max_hold_dte MUST be present so Monitor/Reviewer can judge outcome\n  - Do not use paper_track to rescue bad liquidity, failed quality floor,\n    stale catalyst dates, or anti-signal setups. Those still skip.\n\nOUTPUT FORMAT (strict JSON, output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences):\n\nIf skipping:\n{\n  \"skip\": true,\n  \"score\": <num 0-100>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": <num>,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": <num>,\n    \"direction_evidence\": <num>,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": <num>,\n    \"liquidity\": <num>,\n    \"quality_floor\": <num>\n  },\n  \"reason\": \"Brief reason\"\n}\n\nIf drafting:\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": <num>,\n  \"score_breakdown\": { ... same six fields },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-catalyst-keyphrase\",\n    \"paper_track\": <true if score 45-59, otherwise false>,\n    \"symbol\": \"NVDA\",\n    \"company\": \"NVIDIA Corporation\",\n    \"sector\": \"<sector slug or 'unknown'>\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\" | \"fda_pdufa\" | \"merger_definitive\" | etc,\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long X straddle into Y catalyst — implied move Z% vs realized W%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"1-2 sentence summary of the event setup and the edge.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: what the event is, when, and what the market is pricing.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Specific implied-vs-realized magnitude gap OR direction signals that the market is mispricing.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Why this specific debit structure (cost, breakeven, max payoff).\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"What needs to happen pre-catalyst (e.g., 'IV expansion >15%' or 'analyst raises target ahead of print').\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Specific: 'event resolves but stock moves less than implied → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium.'\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"long_call\" | \"long_put\" | \"straddle\" | \"debit_call_spread\" | \"debit_put_spread\",\n      \"long_call\":         { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num | \"uncapped\">, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"long_put\":          { \"strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"debit_target\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"straddle\":          { \"call_strike\": <num>, \"put_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_debit\": <num>, \"put_debit\": <num>, \"total_debit\": <num>, \"breakeven_high\": <num>, \"breakeven_low\": <num> },\n      \"debit_call_spread\": { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> },\n      \"debit_put_spread\":  { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> }\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": <num>,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., '2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.'\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": <num — dte to expiry>\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Specific scenario where structure decays — usually 'event happens, stock barely moves'.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": <num — must respect catalyst sizing band for the score>,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": <num — equal to net debit>,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [ ... pass through from dossier sources ],\n    \"confidence\": 1-5,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick one and only fill that field. Position size\nMUST respect the catalyst sizing band for the score. The headline MUST\nstate the catalyst type and date.\n\nNumeric traceability: every price, strike, debit must come from\ndossier.candidate_contracts. Every implied/realized number must come from\ndossier.implied_vs_realized.",
  "user_prompt": "CURRENT DATE: 2026-06-04. THE YEAR IS 2026.\nDATE RULES — read before writing ANY date:\n  - Every option expiry, earnings date, catalyst date, and DTE you state MUST use the year 2026 or later. Do NOT write 2025 dates — your training prior is stale.\n  - Every option expiry MUST be a real FUTURE date relative to 2026-06-04. Copy expiries verbatim from options_expiries()/the dossier — never infer a year from memory.\n  - Before writing a date, check it: if it is earlier than 2026-06-04, it is WRONG — re-read the live tool output.\n\nCATALYST DOSSIER:\n{\n  \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n  \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n  \"investigation_summary\": \"Micron reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on June 24, 2026 (AMC) with the nearest post-event option expiry of June 26 — confirmed 21 DTE. The company has beaten estimates in each of its last four quarters by +5.9% to +33.2%. MU is a $1.13T market cap semiconductor and AI memory infrastructure provider currently trading at ~$1006, up 271% YTD as HBM4 demand drives record revenues. ATM straddle (1010C mid $104.40 + 1010P mid $104.22) implies ~20% move vs. historical realized avg of ~8-9%, yielding a magnitude edge: implied is roughly double realized, so rich vol favors debit spreads over naked premium. Direction signals are mixed — CEO Mehrotra sold ~$1M in stock via pre-planned 10b5-1 (sells at $974-979 vs current $1006), which is neutral-to-marginally bearish but not a conviction signal; recent news shows MU locking long-term AI memory contracts, COMPUTEX product unveilings (+16% on June 4), and strong analyst consensus at $739 mean target. The stock has pulled back ~7% today (June 4) in sympathy with AVGO's AI outlook miss — creating an entry opportunity ahead of the event. Technicals remain bullish above all DMAs, RSI 71 not over-extended given momentum velocity. Options skew is flat between puts and calls at near-ATM strikes but put OI dominates deep ITF (880P has 2,156 OI for sector hedging). The flow aggregate shows $46M net call dollar bias with whale activity in both directions — no overwhelming directional consensus from UOA, yet analyst revisions point up. With implied >> realized by ~12 percentage points (~150% premium), the structure recommendation is a debit call spread on the bullish side given 3+ aligned bullish signals (technical, fundamental momentum, long-term contract wins).\",\n  \"verdict\": \"catalyst_setup\",\n  \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n  \"catalyst\": {\n    \"type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"dte\": 20,\n    \"binary\": true,\n    \"outcome_scenarios\": [\n      \"beat (+EPS surprise) → +8 to +15%\",\n      \"in-line → +3 to +5%\",\n      \"miss → -8 to -12%\"\n    ]\n  },\n  \"implied_vs_realized\": {\n    \"implied_move_pct\": 20.16,\n    \"historical_avg_move_pct\": 8.7,\n    \"n_historical_events\": 4,\n    \"magnitude_edge_note\": \"ATM straddle mid = (1010C $104.40 + 1010P $104.22) / 1006 × 100 = ~20.2%. Historical avg realized |1-day %| move across last 4 MU earnings: Q4FY25 (Feb-28) -6.2%, Q3FY25 (Nov-30) post-Aug31 +10.5%, Q2FY25 (Aug-31) +12%, Q1FY25 (May-31) -9.7%. Avg ~8.7%. Implied is 132% above realized — market significantly overpricing vol relative to historical precedent, which strongly favors defined-risk debit spreads over straddles.\"\n  },\n  \"direction_signals\": {\n    \"insider_buys_90d\": \"no\",\n    \"analyst_revisions_30d\": \"up\",\n    \"technical_setup\": \"bullish\",\n    \"options_skew\": \"flat\",\n    \"news_sentiment\": \"positive\",\n    \"direction_lean\": \"neutral\"\n  },\n  \"structure_recommendation\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n  \"candidate_contracts\": [\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 21,\n      \"long_strike\": 1030,\n      \"short_strike\": 1100,\n      \"long_mid\": 104.4,\n      \"short_mid\": 73.15,\n      \"net_debit\": 31.25,\n      \"max_payoff\": 70,\n      \"breakeven\": 1061.25,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 5.48,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 473,\n      \"open_interest_short\": 2126,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 2.41\n    },\n    {\n      \"structure\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"dte\": 21,\n      \"long_strike\": 1040,\n      \"short_strike\": 1100,\n      \"long_mid\": 87.97,\n      \"short_mid\": 67.72,\n      \"net_debit\": 20.25,\n      \"max_payoff\": 60,\n      \"breakeven\": 1060.25,\n      \"breakeven_distance_pct\": 5.37,\n      \"open_interest_long\": 271,\n      \"open_interest_short\": 2126,\n      \"bid_ask_spread_pct\": 3.12\n    }\n  ],\n  \"quality_floor\": {\n    \"market_cap\": 1134714683392,\n    \"price\": 1006.19,\n    \"going_concern\": false,\n    \"passes_floor\": true\n  },\n  \"anti_signals_present\": [\n    \"CEO Mehrotra executed ~$1M in sell transactions via pre-planned 10b5-1 on May 29 (report date) at $974-$979 — insider selling reduces directional confidence\",\n    \"Broadcom AI outlook miss triggering sector-wide sell-off; MU down ~7% today creating event risk near-term headwind\",\n    \"Implied move double historical realized — long premium structure needs a big beat to profit; partial-beat scenario could cause theta/vega bleed\"\n  ],\n  \"key_risks\": [\n    \"Earnings occur June 24 AMC; options expiry June 26 means the position has ~2 days post-event for gamma realization — binary outcome must resolve within that window\",\n    \"IV crush after earnings will erode long option premium rapidly if in-line print occurs (theta decay on DTE-21 decaying through event)\",\n    \"Sector contagion from AVGO's weak AI guidance could persist; MU down 7% today may signal near-term top before the print\",\n    \"Stock up 271% YTD — stretched positioning makes a large negative surprise more severe than typical\",\n    \"Debit call spread caps upside at $1,100 short strike: if MU gaps +15%+ on a big beat, max payoff is realized but limited vs. an open-ended long call\"\n  ],\n  \"sources\": [\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Earnings calendar\",\n      \"url\": \"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MU?interval=1d&range=1d\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"Form 4 — Mehrotra sells May 29\",\n      \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"News: MU long-term AI memory contracts locked in\",\n      \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-locks-long-term-ai-021142491.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n    },\n    {\n      \"label\": \"News: COMPUTEX AI-optimized memory stack unveiled\",\n      \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/micron-technology-mu-16-3-141531822.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n    }\n  ]\n}\n\nScore this against the CATALYST rubric. If composite < 45, skip. Otherwise\ndraft a defined-risk catalyst idea. Output ONLY the JSON object described\nin the system prompt. Do NOT include <think>...</think> blocks — pure JSON only.",
  "completions": [
    {
      "ts": "2026-06-04T16:10:34.606Z",
      "raw_content": "<think>The user wants me to score a catalyst dossier for MU (Micron Technology) against the CATALYST rubric and output a JSON object.\nLet's go through the rubric:\n\n1. Catalyst clarity (max 25 pts):\n   - Event: Fiscal Q3 2026 earnings on June 24, 2026 (AMC).\n   - DTE: 20 days (within 7-45 DTE).\n   - Named in 8-K or earnings cal? Yes, confirmed earnings date.\n   - Score: 25/25\n\n2. Magnitude edge (max 25 pts):\n   - Implied move: ~20.16%\n   - Historical realized: ~8.7%\n   - Implied > realized by ~132% (≥30%).\n   - Structure recommendation: debit spread (since implied is rich).\n   - Edge exists: market overpaying vol → short-vol angle (debit spreads).\n   - Score: 20/25 (Good edge, but rich IV means long premium is bad; debit spreads are efficient. I'll give it 20 for clear magnitude edge favoring defined-risk.)\n\n3. Direction evidence (max 15 pts):\n   - Signals: analyst revisions UP, technical setup bullish, news sentiment positive, options skew flat, insider sells (neutral/bearish), direction lean neutral.\n   - Only 2-3 corroborating bullish signals. Mixed signals lean neutral.\n   - Score: 8/15 (Mixed/neutral direction, but leans bullish due to technicals/fundamentals. Not a strong conviction directional play.)\n\n4. Structure efficiency (max 15 pts):\n   - Candidate: debit call spread 1030/1100, net debit 31.25, max payoff 70, breakeven 1061.25.\n   - Breakeven distance: 5.48% above current price ($1006).\n   - Implied move is ~20%, so breakeven is well within implied move range.\n   - Debit spread cheaper than naked long for same payoff.\n   - Score: 14/15\n\n5. Liquidity (max 10 pts):\n   - OI: long strike 473, short strike 2126. (Prompt says OI ≥500 for full points, but 473 is close. Daily volume not explicitly given but OI is high enough for institutional options. Bid-ask spread 2.41% ≤ 5%.)\n   - I'll give 8/10 (OI slightly under 500 on the long leg, but overall liquid enough).\n\n6. Quality floor (max 10 pts):\n   - Market cap: $1.13T (≥$500M)\n   - Price: $1006 (≥$5)\n   - Going concern: false\n   - Passes floor: true\n   - Score: 10/10\n\nComposite Score: 25 + 20 + 8 + 14 + 8 + 10 = 85.\nWait, let's re-evaluate direction evidence. The rubric says: \"≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points. Mixed signals = straddle/vol play, not directional.\" Here, direction lean is neutral, insider sells, skew flat. I'll stick with 8.\nMagnitude edge: 20.\nStructure efficiency: 14.\nLiquidity: 8.\nTotal: 85.\nThis falls in the 80-100 band: max conf 5, max size 4.0%.\nBut wait, the dossier says \"direction_lean\": \"neutral\". I should adjust direction evidence to maybe 6 or 8. Let's say 7.\nTotal: 25+20+7+14+8+10 = 84. Still ≥60. Normal publish.\n\nLet's check the rules carefully:\n- If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea.\n- Structure must be in allowed list: debit_call_spread is allowed.\n- Quality floor passes.\n- DTE to catalyst is 20 (within 7-45).\n- OI ≥ 200? Yes, 473 and 2126.\n- Paper tracking? No, score ≥ 60.\n- Position size must respect band: 80-100 → max size 4.0%. I'll use 2.0% or 3.0% as reasonable.\n- Headline MUST state catalyst type and date.\n- Thesis must follow format.\n\nLet's draft carefully.\nScore breakdown:\ncatalyst_clarity: 25\nmagnitude_edge: 20\ndirection_evidence: 7\nstructure_efficiency: 14\nliquidity: 8\nquality_floor: 10\nTotal: 84\n\nDraft fields:\nslug: \"2026-06-04-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\"\npaper_track: false\nsymbol: \"MU\"\ncompany: \"Micron Technology, Inc.\"\nsector: \"technology\"\nrisk_class: \"core\"\npipeline: \"catalyst\"\ncatalyst_type: \"earnings\"\ncatalyst_date: \"2026-06-24\"\nheadline: \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 — implied move 20% vs realized 8.7%\"\nthesis_short: \"Micron's Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 price in a ~20% implied move, nearly double the historical 8.7% average. Rich IV environment favors a defined-risk debit call spread to capture upside on a beat while capping theta/vega bleed.\"\nthesis_long: [\n  \"Opening paragraph: Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock is trading near $1,006, up 271% YTD on HBM4 demand. The ATM straddle prices in a ~20.2% post-earnings move, significantly richer than the historical average realized move of 8.7% across the last four quarters.\",\n  \"## The edge\",\n  \"Implied volatility is roughly 130% above historical realized, creating a rich-vol environment that penalizes long premium but favors defined-risk debit spreads. Bullish technicals remain intact above all DMAs with RSI at 71, supported by positive analyst revisions and locked long-term AI memory contracts. While insider selling and flat skew introduce neutral-to-mixed signals, the cost-efficient debit structure exploits the volatility premium without requiring a massive gap to profit.\",\n  \"## Structure\",\n  \"Debit call spread: Buy the 1030 call and sell the 1100 call expiring June 26, 2026. Net debit of $31.25 caps max loss. Max payoff of $70 requires a +5.48% move to breakeven ($1,061.25), well within the implied 20% move range. The short strike finances the long leg and reduces theta decay.\",\n  \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n  \"Confirms: Pre-earnings IV expansion >10% or analyst target revisions pushing mean target above $1,100 ahead of print. Kills: Earnings pushed beyond June 26 expiry, or sector contagion from AVGO weakens technical structure below key DMAs pre-event.\",\n  \"## Risk\",\n  \"Event resolves in-line or slightly miss → debit decays to ~30-40% of paid premium due to IV crush and theta. Stock gaps past $1,100 → capped at max payoff, missing additional upside. Max loss = $31.25 per contract.\"\n]\nstructure: { type: \"debit_call_spread\", long_strike: 1030, short_strike: 1100, expiry: \"2026-06-26\", net_debit: 31.25, max_payoff: 70, breakeven: 1061.25 }\nentry: { price_at_idea: 1006.19, conditions: \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., 2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.\" }\nexit: { primary_target: \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\", stop_or_roll: \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\", max_hold_dte: 21 }\nrisk: { bear_case: \"Event happens, stock moves less than implied (~8.7% historical avg) → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium from IV crush and theta.\", what_breaks_thesis: \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or sector contagion weakens technicals below DMAs.\", position_size_pct: 2.0, max_loss_per_contract: 31.25, max_loss_note: \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\" }\nsources: [ same as dossier ]\nconfidence: 4\nanalyst: \"research-desk\"\nscout_model: \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\"\nanalyst_model: \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n\nCheck constraints:\n- Date rules: All dates are 2026. Expiry 2026-06-26, catalyst 2026-06-24. DTE 21. All good.\n- Score breakdown matches.\n- Structure is debit_call_spread.\n- Position size 2.0% respects 80-100 band (max 4.0%).\n- Headline states catalyst type and date.\n- Thesis matches format.\n- JSON only.\n\nOne minor thing: The rubric says \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" I scored magnitude edge 20. That's fine.\nDirection evidence: \"≥3 corroborating signals same direction = full points. Mixed signals = straddle/vol play, not directional.\" I gave 7. That's fine.\nLiquidity: OI ≥500 + daily volume ≥50 + bid-ask ≤5% = full (10). Long leg OI is 473, slightly under 500. I'll give 8.\nQuality floor: 10.\nTotal: 84.\n\nWait, the prompt says: \"If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea using the recommended structure\".\nI will output the JSON exactly as specified.\nLet's double check the JSON structure format.\nThe draft object keys must match exactly.\n\"thesis_long\" is an array of strings.\n\"sources\" is an array of objects from dossier.\nAll good.\n\nOne detail: \"breakeven_distance_pct\" is not in the output schema, so I won't include it.\nThe schema for debit_call_spread:\n\"debit_call_spread\": { \"long_strike\": <num>, \"short_strike\": <num>, \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"net_debit\": <num>, \"max_payoff\": <num>, \"breakeven\": <num> }\nMatches.\n\nCheck confidence: 4 is allowed (1-5).\nCheck position_size_pct: 2.0 is within 0-4.0%.\nCheck max_hold_dte: 21.\nCheck headline: \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 — implied move 20% vs realized 8.7%\" (states type and date).\nCheck thesis_short: 1-2 sentences.\nCheck thesis_long: matches the requested subsections.\nCheck risk: matches requested fields.\nCheck sources: pass through.\nCheck analyst/scout/analyst_model: as requested.\n\nEverything looks solid. I will generate the JSON.\nOne thing: The prompt says \"If structure is not in {long_call, long_put, straddle, debit_call_spread, debit_put_spread} → skip\". It is in the list.\n\"Quality floor passes floor is true\" -> passes.\n\"DTE to catalyst is < 0 or > 45 → skip\" -> 20 DTE, passes.\n\"No candidate contracts have OI ≥200 → skip\" -> passes.\nScore 84 >= 60 -> normal publish.\n\nI will construct the JSON carefully.\nAll numeric values from dossier:\nprice_at_idea: 1006.19\nlong_strike: 1030\nshort_strike: 1100\nexpiry: \"2026-06-26\"\nnet_debit: 31.25\nmax_payoff: 70\nbreakeven: 1061.25\nposition_size_pct: 2.0\nmax_loss_per_contract: 31.25\nconfidence: 4\n\nReady. Output matches exactly.\nI will produce the JSON now. \nSelf-Correction/Verification during thought:\n- Check magnitude edge scoring: \"Implied move > historical average by ≥30% AND structure is debit = market overpaying vol → short-vol angle.\" I gave 20. That's appropriate.\n- Check direction evidence: \"Mixed signals = straddle/vol play, not directional.\" I gave 7. Appropriate.\n- Check liquidity: OI 473 < 500, so not full points. Gave 8.\n- Check structure efficiency: Breakeven 1061.25 is 5.48% away. Implied move is 20%. Breakeven is well inside implied range. Gave 14.\n- Total 84.\n- Sizing band 80-100: max size 4.0%. I'll use 2.5% to be safe.\n- All dates are 2026.\n- JSON structure matches prompt exactly.\nProceed. \nOutput matches response. \nOne minor point: The prompt says \"breakeven_distance_pct\" is in candidate_contracts but not in the output schema for debit_call_spread. I'll stick to the schema.\nThe prompt says: \"headline MUST begin with 'Paper Track:' if paper_track is true. Otherwise just state catalyst type and date.\" I'll follow the exact wording: \"The headline MUST state the catalyst type and date.\"\nAll good.\nGenerating. \nOutput matches the requested JSON format strictly.\n```json\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 84,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 7,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 14,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-04-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"technology\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 — implied move 20% vs realized 8.7%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron's Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 price in a ~20% implied move, nearly double the historical 8.7% average. Rich IV environment favors a defined-risk debit call spread to capture upside on a beat while capping theta/vega bleed.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock is trading near $1,006, up 271% YTD on HBM4 demand. The ATM straddle prices in a ~20.2% post-earnings move, significantly richer than the historical average realized move of 8.7% across the last four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Implied volatility is roughly 130% above historical realized, creating a rich-vol environment that penalizes long premium but favors defined-risk debit spreads. Bullish technicals remain intact above all DMAs with RSI at 71, supported by positive analyst revisions and locked long-term AI memory contracts. While insider selling and flat skew introduce neutral-to-mixed signals, the cost-efficient debit structure exploits the volatility premium without requiring a massive gap to profit.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Buy the 1030 call and sell the 1100 call expiring June 26, 2026. Net debit of $31.25 caps max loss. Max payoff of $70 requires a +5.48% move to breakeven ($1,061.25), well within the implied 20% move range. The short strike finances the long leg and reduces theta decay.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-earnings IV expansion >10% or analyst target revisions pushing mean target above $1,100 ahead of print. Kills: Earnings pushed beyond June 26 expiry, or sector contagion from AVGO weakens technical structure below key DMAs pre-event.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves in-line or slightly miss → debit decays to ~30-40% of paid premium due to IV crush and theta. Stock gaps past $1,100 → capped at max payoff, missing additional upside. Max loss = $31.25 per contract.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1030,\n      \"short_strike\": 1100,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 31.25,\n      \"max_payoff\": 70,\n      \"breakeven\": 1061.25\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1006.19,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., 2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 21\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock moves less than implied (~8.7% historical avg) → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium from IV crush and theta.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or sector contagion weakens technicals below DMAs.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 2.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 31.25,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings calendar\",\n        \"url\": \"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MU?interval=1d&range=1d\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 — Mehrotra sells May 29\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: MU long-term AI memory contracts locked in\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-locks-long-term-ai-021142491.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: COMPUTEX AI-optimized memory stack unveiled\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/micron-technology-mu-16-3-141531822.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}\n```\nAll constraints met. Output matches exactly. Proceeds. \nOne detail: `catalyst_date` should be a string. `expiry` is a string. `max_hold_dte` is a number. All good.\nI will produce the JSON now. \nSelf-Correction/Note during generation prep: \nThe prompt says \"breakeven_distance_pct\" is in candidate_contracts but not required in output. I'll omit it.\nThe prompt says \"If composite score < 45 → skip... If composite score 45-59 → draft a PAPER-TRACKED... If composite score ≥ 60 → draft a normal catalyst idea\". My score is 84.\nEverything aligns.\nOutput matches. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> JSON string. \nDone. \n(Self-Correction/Verification during thought)\nWait, check the `thesis_long` format requirement:\n\"## The edge\",\n\"## Structure\",\n\"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n\"## Risk\"\nThe prompt shows these as separate strings in the array. I will format them exactly as requested.\nAll good.\nOutput matches response. \nProceeds. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]\n\"Numeric traceability: every price, strike, debit must come from dossier.candidate_contracts. Every implied/realized number must come from dossier.implied_vs_realized.\"\nChecked.\n\"Position size MUST respect the catalyst sizing band for the score.\"\nScore 84 -> 80-100 band -> max size 4.0%. I used 2.0%. OK.\n\"headline MUST state the catalyst type and date.\"\nChecked.\nAll constraints satisfied.\nOutput matches. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] (matches the final JSON block)\nDone. \n(Note: I will ensure strict JSON formatting without markdown fences as requested: \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\")\nActually, the prompt says \"output ONLY this object — no prose, no fences\". I will output raw JSON.\nReady. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n</think>\n\n{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 84,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 7,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 14,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-04-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"technology\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 — implied move 20% vs realized 8.7%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron's Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 price in a ~20% implied move, nearly double the historical 8.7% average. Rich IV environment favors a defined-risk debit call spread to capture upside on a beat while capping theta/vega bleed.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock is trading near $1,006, up 271% YTD on HBM4 demand. The ATM straddle prices in a ~20.2% post-earnings move, significantly richer than the historical average realized move of 8.7% across the last four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Implied volatility is roughly 130% above historical realized, creating a rich-vol environment that penalizes long premium but favors defined-risk debit spreads. Bullish technicals remain intact above all DMAs with RSI at 71, supported by positive analyst revisions and locked long-term AI memory contracts. While insider selling and flat skew introduce neutral-to-mixed signals, the cost-efficient debit structure exploits the volatility premium without requiring a massive gap to profit.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Buy the 1030 call and sell the 1100 call expiring June 26, 2026. Net debit of $31.25 caps max loss. Max payoff of $70 requires a +5.48% move to breakeven ($1,061.25), well within the implied 20% move range. The short strike finances the long leg and reduces theta decay.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-earnings IV expansion >10% or analyst target revisions pushing mean target above $1,100 ahead of print. Kills: Earnings pushed beyond June 26 expiry, or sector contagion from AVGO weakens technical structure below key DMAs pre-event.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves in-line or slightly miss → debit decays to ~30-40% of paid premium due to IV crush and theta. Stock gaps past $1,100 → capped at max payoff, missing additional upside. Max loss = $31.25 per contract.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1030,\n      \"short_strike\": 1100,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 31.25,\n      \"max_payoff\": 70,\n      \"breakeven\": 1061.25\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1006.19,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., 2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 21\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock moves less than implied (~8.7% historical avg) → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium from IV crush and theta.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or sector contagion weakens technicals below DMAs.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 2.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 31.25,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings calendar\",\n        \"url\": \"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MU?interval=1d&range=1d\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 — Mehrotra sells May 29\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: MU long-term AI memory contracts locked in\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-locks-long-term-ai-021142491.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: COMPUTEX AI-optimized memory stack unveiled\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/micron-technology-mu-16-3-141531822.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
      "cleaned_content": "{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 84,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 7,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 14,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-04-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"technology\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 — implied move 20% vs realized 8.7%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron's Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 price in a ~20% implied move, nearly double the historical 8.7% average. Rich IV environment favors a defined-risk debit call spread to capture upside on a beat while capping theta/vega bleed.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock is trading near $1,006, up 271% YTD on HBM4 demand. The ATM straddle prices in a ~20.2% post-earnings move, significantly richer than the historical average realized move of 8.7% across the last four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Implied volatility is roughly 130% above historical realized, creating a rich-vol environment that penalizes long premium but favors defined-risk debit spreads. Bullish technicals remain intact above all DMAs with RSI at 71, supported by positive analyst revisions and locked long-term AI memory contracts. While insider selling and flat skew introduce neutral-to-mixed signals, the cost-efficient debit structure exploits the volatility premium without requiring a massive gap to profit.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Buy the 1030 call and sell the 1100 call expiring June 26, 2026. Net debit of $31.25 caps max loss. Max payoff of $70 requires a +5.48% move to breakeven ($1,061.25), well within the implied 20% move range. The short strike finances the long leg and reduces theta decay.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-earnings IV expansion >10% or analyst target revisions pushing mean target above $1,100 ahead of print. Kills: Earnings pushed beyond June 26 expiry, or sector contagion from AVGO weakens technical structure below key DMAs pre-event.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves in-line or slightly miss → debit decays to ~30-40% of paid premium due to IV crush and theta. Stock gaps past $1,100 → capped at max payoff, missing additional upside. Max loss = $31.25 per contract.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1030,\n      \"short_strike\": 1100,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 31.25,\n      \"max_payoff\": 70,\n      \"breakeven\": 1061.25\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1006.19,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., 2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 21\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock moves less than implied (~8.7% historical avg) → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium from IV crush and theta.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or sector contagion weakens technicals below DMAs.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 2.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 31.25,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings calendar\",\n        \"url\": \"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MU?interval=1d&range=1d\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 — Mehrotra sells May 29\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: MU long-term AI memory contracts locked in\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-locks-long-term-ai-021142491.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: COMPUTEX AI-optimized memory stack unveiled\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/micron-technology-mu-16-3-141531822.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
      "tool_calls": null,
      "finish_reason": "stop"
    }
  ],
  "tool_results": [],
  "final_message": "{\n  \"skip\": false,\n  \"score\": 84,\n  \"score_breakdown\": {\n    \"catalyst_clarity\": 25,\n    \"magnitude_edge\": 20,\n    \"direction_evidence\": 7,\n    \"structure_efficiency\": 14,\n    \"liquidity\": 8,\n    \"quality_floor\": 10\n  },\n  \"draft\": {\n    \"slug\": \"2026-06-04-MU-earnings-debit-call-spread\",\n    \"paper_track\": false,\n    \"symbol\": \"MU\",\n    \"company\": \"Micron Technology, Inc.\",\n    \"sector\": \"technology\",\n    \"risk_class\": \"core\",\n    \"pipeline\": \"catalyst\",\n    \"catalyst_type\": \"earnings\",\n    \"catalyst_date\": \"2026-06-24\",\n    \"headline\": \"Long MU debit call spread into Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 — implied move 20% vs realized 8.7%\",\n    \"thesis_short\": \"Micron's Q3 FY26 earnings on June 24 price in a ~20% implied move, nearly double the historical 8.7% average. Rich IV environment favors a defined-risk debit call spread to capture upside on a beat while capping theta/vega bleed.\",\n    \"thesis_long\": [\n      \"Opening paragraph: Micron (MU) reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after market close on June 24, 2026. The stock is trading near $1,006, up 271% YTD on HBM4 demand. The ATM straddle prices in a ~20.2% post-earnings move, significantly richer than the historical average realized move of 8.7% across the last four quarters.\",\n      \"## The edge\",\n      \"Implied volatility is roughly 130% above historical realized, creating a rich-vol environment that penalizes long premium but favors defined-risk debit spreads. Bullish technicals remain intact above all DMAs with RSI at 71, supported by positive analyst revisions and locked long-term AI memory contracts. While insider selling and flat skew introduce neutral-to-mixed signals, the cost-efficient debit structure exploits the volatility premium without requiring a massive gap to profit.\",\n      \"## Structure\",\n      \"Debit call spread: Buy the 1030 call and sell the 1100 call expiring June 26, 2026. Net debit of $31.25 caps max loss. Max payoff of $70 requires a +5.48% move to breakeven ($1,061.25), well within the implied 20% move range. The short strike finances the long leg and reduces theta decay.\",\n      \"## What confirms / kills the thesis\",\n      \"Confirms: Pre-earnings IV expansion >10% or analyst target revisions pushing mean target above $1,100 ahead of print. Kills: Earnings pushed beyond June 26 expiry, or sector contagion from AVGO weakens technical structure below key DMAs pre-event.\",\n      \"## Risk\",\n      \"Event resolves in-line or slightly miss → debit decays to ~30-40% of paid premium due to IV crush and theta. Stock gaps past $1,100 → capped at max payoff, missing additional upside. Max loss = $31.25 per contract.\"\n    ],\n    \"structure\": {\n      \"type\": \"debit_call_spread\",\n      \"long_strike\": 1030,\n      \"short_strike\": 1100,\n      \"expiry\": \"2026-06-26\",\n      \"net_debit\": 31.25,\n      \"max_payoff\": 70,\n      \"breakeven\": 1061.25\n    },\n    \"entry\": {\n      \"price_at_idea\": 1006.19,\n      \"conditions\": \"Enter on a defined pre-catalyst window — e.g., 2-5 days before print, before IV expansion peaks.\"\n    },\n    \"exit\": {\n      \"primary_target\": \"Exit at 80% of max payoff OR close end-of-day after catalyst regardless of outcome\",\n      \"stop_or_roll\": \"Close if catalyst gets pushed > 2 weeks OR pre-event move exceeds 50% of debit paid\",\n      \"max_hold_dte\": 21\n    },\n    \"risk\": {\n      \"bear_case\": \"Event happens, stock moves less than implied (~8.7% historical avg) → debit decays to ~30% of paid premium from IV crush and theta.\",\n      \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Catalyst delayed past expiry; pre-empted disclosure ahead of event; outsized IV crush or sector contagion weakens technicals below DMAs.\",\n      \"position_size_pct\": 2.0,\n      \"max_loss_per_contract\": 31.25,\n      \"max_loss_note\": \"Max loss = net premium paid (defined-risk debit structure).\"\n    },\n    \"sources\": [\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Earnings calendar\",\n        \"url\": \"https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/MU?interval=1d&range=1d\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"Form 4 — Mehrotra sells May 29\",\n        \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/723125/000124265426000010/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: MU long-term AI memory contracts locked in\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/micron-locks-long-term-ai-021142491.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      },\n      {\n        \"label\": \"News: COMPUTEX AI-optimized memory stack unveiled\",\n        \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/micron-technology-mu-16-3-141531822.html?.tsrc=rss\"\n      }\n    ],\n    \"confidence\": 4,\n    \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n    \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n    \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\"\n  }\n}",
  "tool_calls_total": 0,
  "walltime_ms": 178271,
  "stop_reason": "stop",
  "completed_at": "2026-06-04T16:10:34.607Z"
}