{ "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b", "started_at": "2026-05-20T15:55:19.326Z", "system_prompt": "You are Analyst, the thesis-judgment stage of an AI trade-ideas pipeline.\n\nScout has already gathered a JSON dossier of scoring_inputs. Your job is to\nSCORE the dossier against the methodology rubric and either draft an idea\n(if score ≥ 60) or skip.\n\nOPTION B (skip) IS THE EXPECTED DEFAULT. The pipeline publishes rarely and\nonly when something clears a high bar. Most dossiers should return\n{ \"skip\": true, \"reason\": \"...\", \"score\": }. Mediocre publishes burn\nDevil's Advocate budget and create credibility risk on the public site.\n\nLOOK AT THE FULL STRUCTURE MENU. Even when Scout says 'no asymmetric long\nopportunity exists' (verdict=range_bound_or_income), there may be a clear\nINCOME structure (covered call against the high; strangle inside an IV-\nelevated band; CSP at a downside-defended strike). Don't reflex-skip just\nbecause long_stock isn't attractive. Read the dossier looking for what\nSHAPE OF TRADE fits, not just whether long is fits.\n\nSCORING RUBRIC (sum to max 100)\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.smart_money\n • 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in\n last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\n • +3 pts if CEO is among the buyers\n • +3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\n • +2 pts if total purchases > $5M\n • 5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add (Berkshire, Pershing\n Square, Appaloosa, Greenlight, Scion, Polen, Pabrai, Tepper, etc.)\n • +3 pts if it's in the manager's top-3 positions\n • 2 pts for politician STOCK Act recent buy\n • +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\n • Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.options_flow\n • 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish\n and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\n • 3 pts: bullish IV skew (call IV > put IV) consistent with thesis\n • 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30 (sustained call-side flow)\n • 1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\n • Penalty: −5 pts if whale_put_blocks_otm ≥ 2 and bias is bearish\n without a hedging explanation\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.catalyst\n • 10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\n • 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\n • 5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\n • 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind (named hyperscaler capex flowing\n to this name in $)\n Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.mispricing\n • 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median (with non-deteriorating\n earnings)\n • 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median\n • 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7% with stable FCF\n • 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25% (replaces one of the above)\n Cap at 15.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.quality\n • 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15% (or trending there)\n • 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY\n • 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.technical\n • 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\n • 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector\n • 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\n • 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\n\nRISK CLASS — choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field:\n \"core\" — market_cap > $5B. Standard methodology sizing.\n \"asymmetric\" — market_cap ≤ $5B (small-cap moonshot). 90%+ of these\n bets lose money or go to zero; the few that work pay\n for the rest. Position sizing is far more conservative\n to fit the variance.\n\nTHRESHOLDS — depend on risk_class\n\n CORE risk_class:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 4-5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 2.5-3.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 1.5-2.0%\n 50-59 Skip unless catalyst <30d + insider cluster\n < 50 Skip\n\n ASYMMETRIC risk_class — strict sizing:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 1.5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 1.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 0.5%\n < 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\n Structure must be long_stock (options structures are wrong shape for\n moonshots; Compliance enforces this in code).\n\nANTI-SIGNAL GATES (any one of these forces skip regardless of score):\n • Going-concern audit qualification\n • Pending material litigation (DOJ/SEC enforcement, class action with merit)\n • Customer concentration > 30%\n • Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\n • Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\n • Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\n • Pump-and-dump signals (sudden volume + chat-room mentions)\n\nIf scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a\ngate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\n\nEDGE CHECK (philosophical, not numeric)\n\nAfter scoring, ask: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already\nknow?\" If the answer is generic (it's cheap, AI is a tailwind, technicals\nlook great), the score is misleading — skip even if numerical score is 65.\nReal edge means a specific data point or interpretation the market missed.\n\nSCOUT VERDICT → STRUCTURE GUIDANCE\n\nRead scoring_inputs and Scout's verdict together. The verdict tells you\nWHICH structures Scout thinks are in scope for this name:\n\n verdict='promising' → long_stock | csp (for asymmetric long)\n verdict='range_bound_or_income' → cc | strangle | csp on pullback\n (DON'T default to long_stock — Scout\n already said this isn't an asymmetric\n long. Look at IV elevated → strangle;\n stock at 52w high, fundamentals healthy\n → cc against implicit long; pullback\n thesis with cash → csp)\n verdict='bearish_setup' → naked_call (rarely; respect ceiling)\n\nIf Scout supplied structure_hints[], they're a starting point. You can\noverride with reasoning, but if you go OUTSIDE the verdict's natural set,\nexplain why in thesis_long.\n\nSTRUCTURE SELECTION — full menu:\n\n long_stock — multi-quarter asymmetric thesis, IV not elevated, want\n full upside participation\n csp — bullish, want to own at strike, IV elevated, ann yield ≥15%\n cc — range-bound or mildly bullish, IV elevated, on top of long\n stock leg, if-called return ≥15% ann\n strangle — RANGE-BOUND thesis with elevated IV. Sell OTM call + OTM\n put. Need: comfortable owning at put_strike, no parabolic\n upside expectation. Ann yield ≥12%. Compute and emit\n breakeven_high (call_strike + total_premium) and\n breakeven_low (put_strike - total_premium).\n naked_put — same setup as CSP but using margin. ~2x yield, margin call\n risk. Only for margin-equipped accounts. Note explicitly.\n naked_call — bearish setup with elevated IV. UNCAPPED loss if rally.\n Confidence ceiling 4 (Compliance enforces). Requires\n explicit upside-shock thesis + defense plan in conditions.\n\nMatch the structure to the thesis shape — don't reach for naked options\njust because the premium is fatter. Most candidates are best as long_stock\nor CSP. Strangles only when you have a clear range thesis backed by IV\nand fundamentals.\n\nIF YOU SKIP — output exactly:\n {\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n }\n\nIF YOU PROCEED — output a draft idea matching this schema (this is the same\nschema the published site renders from):\n\n{\n \"skip\": false,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"draft\": {\n \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-keyphrase\",\n \"symbol\": \"TICKER\",\n \"company\": \"Full name\",\n \"sector\": \"semis-ai-infra\" | \"small-cap-asymmetric\",\n \"risk_class\": \"core\" | \"asymmetric\",\n \"headline\": \"Punchy 1-line — the news angle on the thesis\",\n \"thesis_short\": \"1 sentence — why this trade exists.\",\n \"thesis_long\": [\n \"Opening paragraph framing the setup.\",\n \"## Catalyst\",\n \"Detailed catalyst narrative.\",\n \"## Why the market is mispricing this\",\n \"Edge explanation, citing dossier facts.\",\n \"## Numbers\",\n \"- Bullet 1 with concrete numbers from the dossier\",\n \"- Bullet 2\",\n \"## Risk\",\n \"Honest description of what could go wrong.\"\n ],\n \"structure\": {\n \"type\": \"long_stock\" | \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\" | \"naked_put\" | \"naked_call\",\n \"long_stock\": { \"entry_zone_low\": , \"entry_zone_high\": , \"shares_per_unit\": 100 },\n \"csp\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"if_assigned_basis\": },\n \"cc\": { \"underlying_basis\": , \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"if_called_return_pct\": },\n \"strangle\": { \"call_strike\": , \"put_strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_premium_target\": , \"put_premium_target\": , \"total_premium_target\": , \"breakeven_high\": , \"breakeven_low\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_note\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_put\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_per_contract\": , \"margin_estimate_per_contract\": , \"warning\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_call\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss\": \"UNLIMITED\", \"warning\": \"...\" }\n },\n \"entry\": {\n \"price_at_idea\": ,\n \"conditions\": \"How/when to enter — e.g., 'Open starter on pullback to MA50.'\"\n },\n \"exit\": {\n \"target_price\": ,\n \"time_horizon_months\": ,\n \"stop_conditions\": \"Specific signal(s) that trigger a close.\"\n },\n \"risk\": {\n \"bear_case\": \"Honest, specific bear case (not generic 'market could fall').\",\n \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Specific event/data that invalidates the call.\",\n \"position_size_pct\": <0.5 to 5.0, conviction-weighted>\n },\n \"sources\": [\n { \"label\": \"...\", \"url\": \"...\" }\n ],\n \"confidence\": <1-5, conservative>,\n \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\",\n \"devils_advocate_verdict\": null\n }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that\nsub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\n\nALL NUMBERS must be drawn from the dossier or computable from it. Do not\ninvent prices, strikes, premiums.\n\nOUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.", "user_prompt": "Here is the dossier from Scout. Decide: skip or draft.\n\n\nLESSONS LEARNED: none yet.\n\nDOSSIER:\n{\n \"symbol\": \"TILE\",\n \"company\": \"Interface, Inc.\",\n \"investigation_summary\": \"Interface (TILE) reported strong Q1 FY2026 results on May 8 — EPS of $0.41 vs $0.33 estimate (+24%), revenue +11% YoY to $331M — and raised full-year guidance to $1.45-1.48B from prior range. The 9 Form 4 filings in the last 14 days are almost entirely RSUvesting grants to directors (code A at $0 cost basis), NOT open-market purchases. One genuine officer sale: VP/Secretary David Foshee sold 44,393 shares at ~$29 on May 18 for ~$1.287M. No CEO or CFO open-market buys in the 90-day window. The stock is near its 52-week high ($28.06 vs $35.11 peak), trading at forward P/E of 12x with strong EPS growth (+81.8% YoY). Valuation appears full but not stretched, and options IV (70-127% on ITM strikes) provides enough premium for income strategies.\",\n \"verdict\": \"range_bound_or_income\",\n \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n \"structure_hints\": [\n \"cc\",\n \"strangle\"\n ],\n \"business_snapshot\": \"Interface is a ~$1.42B revenue global flooring solutions company headquartered in Atlanta, GA. It designs, manufactures and sells modular carpet (brands: Interface, FLOR), luxury vinyl tile (LVT), nora rubber flooring (noraplan, norament), and related installation services across 100+ countries through two reportable segments: Americas (AMS) at ~60% of revenue and EAAA (Europe/Africa/Asia/Australia) at ~40%. The company is a recognized sustainability leader — it launched the first cradle-to-gate carbon-negative carpet tile in 2020, has 200+ carbon-negative styles today using its proprietary CQuest backings, and aims to become carbon negative by 2040. It has ranked in GlobeScan's Top 10 Global Sustainability Leaders survey for 28 consecutive years. The business is cyclical with heavy exposure to corporate office renovation but has been diversifying into education (17% of revenue), healthcare (10%), and government/hospitality segments.\",\n \"scoring_inputs\": {\n \"smart_money\": {\n \"insider_open_market_purchases_90d\": [],\n \"insider_open_market_total_usd_90d\": 0,\n \"distinct_insider_buyers_90d\": 0,\n \"ceo_buy_present\": false,\n \"cfo_buy_present\": false,\n \"material_insider_selling_90d_usd\": 1287747,\n \"notable_13f_holders\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ],\n \"politician_recent_buys\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ]\n },\n \"catalyst\": {\n \"next_earnings_date\": \"2026-08-07\",\n \"recent_eps_surprise_pattern\": \"4 consecutive beats: Q1 2026 +24.2% vs est, Q4 2025 +21.5%, Q3 2025 +27.1%, Q2 2025 +27.7%; all with positive guidance raises; FY2026 revenue raised to $1.45-1.48B from prior range in May 2026 after Q1 beat.\",\n \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": true,\n \"named_catalysts\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"earnings\",\n \"description\": \"Q1 2026 EPS of $0.41 vs $0.33 estimate (+24%); revenue $331M, +11% YoY; full-year guidance raised to $1.45-1.48B (prior range was lower)\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"May 8, 2026\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000008/tile-20260508.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"product\",\n \"description\": \"Noravant rubber flooring launch (new product category expansion); 200+ carbon negative carpet tile styles; nora carbon-negative prototype unveiled January 2025; FLOR x Trina Turk collaboration expansion in 2025\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"Throughout FY2026\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000006/tile-20251228.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"earnings\",\n \"description\": \"Q2 2026 guidance issued: net sales $385M-$395M (approximately in-line with analyst consensus ~$390M)\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"May 8, 2026\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000012/tile-20260405.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"ambiguous\"\n }\n ]\n },\n \"mispricing\": {\n \"forward_pe\": 12.03,\n \"sector_median_forward_pe\": null,\n \"ev_to_ebitda\": 8.558,\n \"sector_median_ev_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"fcf_yield_pct\": 5.76,\n \"sotp_gap_pct\": null,\n \"narrative\": \"TILE trades at forward P/E of ~12x with +10% revenue growth and +81% earnings growth — appears fairly valued but not richly priced vs consumer discretionary peers (Mohawk MHK trades ~15-18x fwd). FCF yield of 5.8% is attractive for a cash-generative industrial-style business. The stock has re-rated from $24 lows in March to near $28, recovering most of the geopolitical selloff, but is still 20% below its 52-week high.\"\n },\n \"quality\": {\n \"roic_pct\": null,\n \"gross_margin_trend_pp_yoy\": null,\n \"net_debt_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"balance_sheet_grade\": \"B\"\n },\n \"technical\": {\n \"above_50dma\": true,\n \"above_200dma\": false,\n \"rsi_14\": 51.4,\n \"macd_recent_bullish_cross\": false,\n \"12_1_momentum_vs_sector_pct\": null\n }\n },\n \"price_context\": {\n \"last_close\": 28.06,\n \"ytd_return_pct\": -20.09,\n \"from_52w_high_pct\": -20.07\n },\n \"filings_reviewed\": [\n {\n \"form\": \"10-Q\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-12\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000012/tile-20260405.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Q1 FY2026 revenue $331M (+11.3% YoY), EPS $0.41 beat estimate by +24%; raised FY2026 guidance to $1.45B-$1.48B; gross margin 38.3%; Americas AOI $23.9M, EAAA AOI $8.8M; net debt increased to ~$135M from ~$110M due to share repurchases and working capital; initiated Q2 FY2026 guidance of $385M-$395M in sales\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"10-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-02-25\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000006/tile-20251228.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"FY2025 net sales $1.39B (+4% YoY), adjusted EPS approximately $2.00; Americas 61%/EAAA 39% revenue mix; corporate office segment declining as % but still largest at ~45%; nora rubber acquisition (2018) performing; One Interface strategy delivering cost synergies and margin expansion; supply chain and tariff risks highlighted in risk factors\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"8-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000008/tile-20260508.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Q1 2026 press release with full financial details; non-GAAP adjusted metrics disclosed (AOI, currency-neutral sales); Q2 guidance issued inline\"\n ]\n }\n ],\n \"options_context\": {\n \"expiries_examined\": [\n \"2026-06-18\",\n \"2026-07-17\",\n \"2026-10-16\"\n ],\n \"iv_summary\": \"ATM IV around 71% on the July 17 expiry (57 DTE); ITM calls show inflated IV ~127% suggesting thinness; OI concentrated at $40 call strike (12 contracts), $25 put (6), and $30 call (9). Put/call volume ratio is very low at 0.13, net dollar flow is strongly bullish (+$5,297 call-side vs +$1,200 put-side) but notional sizes are small.\",\n \"notable_skew_or_flow\": \"Call-skew in the Jul 17 expiry: $35 strike (OTM ~25%) shows IV of 81%, reasonable for a stock at this price range. The bullish UOA aggregate ($5.3K call vs $1.2K put) is directional but not large enough to constitute institutional conviction.\"\n },\n \"competitive_landscape\": \"Interface competes globally against Mohawk Industries (MHK, ~$9B market cap), Shaw Industries (private, owned by Berkshire Hathaway), Tarkett, Gerflor, and numerous regional carpet tile manufacturers. In LVT/resilient flooring, it faces Armstrong, Shaw, Karndean, and Entryway brands from larger conglomerates. The modular carpet market is consolidating; Interface holds the #2 or #3 global position behind Mohawk/Shaw. Its premium sustainability positioning (carbon-negative products) provides differentiation but commands a price premium that can be a headwind in discretionary renovation spending environments.\",\n \"key_risks\": [\n \"Cyclicality of corporate office market (still ~45% of revenue), vulnerable to reduced commercial construction/renovation budgets during economic downturns\",\n \"Geopolitical and tariff risk — company sources raw materials globally; government-imposed tariffs and retaliatory tariffs mentioned in recent filings as ongoing challenge\",\n \"Yarn supply concentration risk — relies principally on two global suppliers for nylon yarn, one of which is a significant relationship with limited alternatives\",\n \"Foreign currency translation headwinds — ~40% of revenue from EAAA segment creates FX volatility (FCT adjustment was -$8.3M in Q1 2026 alone)\",\n \"Net debt increased to ~$135M; leverage ratio rising with share repurchases financed by borrowings\"\n ],\n \"what_the_market_might_be_missing\": \"Nothing material emerges from the filings that the market is missing. The sustainability moat (carbon-negative product line, SBTi-validated targets) could be underappreciated over a longer horizon if carbon pricing or procurement mandates expand, but this is not a near-term catalyst. The recent 9 Form 4 cluster was almost entirely RSU grants to directors at $0 cost basis — the open-market P/S signal appears to have been generated by RSU vesting events (code A), not genuine insider conviction.\",\n \"anti_signals_present\": [],\n \"sources\": [\n {\n \"label\": \"Fundamentals\",\n \"url\": \"via internal API\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Q1 2026 10-Q\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000012/tile-20260405.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"FY2025 10-K\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000006/tile-20251228.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Q1 earnings 8-K\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000071578726000008/tile-20260508.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 filings — Foshee (VP/Sec sell)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/715787/000169442126000006/xslF345X06/primarydocument.xml\"\n }\n ],\n \"unfetched_signals\": [\n \"13f_deltas\",\n \"politician_trades\"\n ]\n}\n\nOutput ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT\ninclude ... reasoning blocks — they eat the output token\nbudget and produce truncated, unparseable decisions.", "completions": [ { "ts": "2026-05-20T15:56:26.576Z", "raw_content": "The dossier is for TILE (Interface, Inc.).\nLet's score it based on the rubric.\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25)\n- insider_open_market_purchases_90d: []\n- material_insider_selling_90d_usd: 1,287,747\n- distinct_insider_buyers_90d: 0\n- CEO/CFO buy: false\n- Penalty: -10 pts for material insider selling > buying.\nScore A: 0 - 10 = -10 (cap at 0) -> 0\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10)\n- whale_call_blocks_otm: not mentioned, flow is small ($5.3K call vs $1.2K put)\n- bullish IV skew: not strongly indicated, ATM IV 71%\n- net_dollar_bias_pct: +$5,297 call vs +$1,200 put. Not >30% sustained or large enough.\n- large OI building: low OI (12 contracts at $40 call)\nScore B: 0\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25)\n- earnings within 90 days: Aug 7, 2026 (from May 8 is ~90 days). Last 4 quarters EPS surprise > 0%: Yes (+24.2%, +21.5%, +27.1%, +27.7%). -> 10 pts\n- guidance raise in last 90d: Yes. -> 5 pts\n- quantifiable sector tailwind: None mentioned.\n- product launch: Noravant rubber flooring, but not a major catalyst.\nCap at 25. Score C: 15\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15)\n- forward P/E: 12.03. Sector median not provided, but compared to Mohawk (15-18x), it's ~20-33% below. -> 5 pts\n- EV/EBITDA: 8.558. No sector median.\n- FCF yield: 5.76%. < 7%.\n- SOTP gap: null.\nScore D: 5 (maybe 4 if P/E gap isn't confirmed, but let's give 5 for being below peer median with strong earnings growth)\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15)\n- ROIC: null\n- Gross margin trend: null (38.3% in Q1, but trend not given)\n- Net debt / EBITDA: null (balance sheet grade B)\nScore E: 0 (missing data prevents points)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10)\n- above 50DMA: yes (3 pts)\n- above 200DMA: no\n- 12-1 momentum vs sector: null\n- RSI 14: 51.4 (in 40-65 zone) -> 2 pts\n- MACD bullish cross: no\nScore F: 5\n\nTotal Score: 0 + 0 + 15 + 5 + 0 + 5 = 25.\nWait, let's re-evaluate C. Earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters EPS surprise > 0% = 10 pts. Guidance raise = 5 pts. Total 15.\nCould add product catalyst? 8 pts for pending product launch. But it's incremental. Let's stick with 15.\nTotal ~ 25-30.\n\nRisk Class: Market cap ~$1.42B revenue, but what's market cap? Not explicitly given, but typically Interface is ~$1.5-2B market cap. Let's assume \"asymmetric\" (≤ $5B). Actually, the prompt says \"choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field\". It's not in the dossier. I'll assume asymmetric or core, but score is <60 anyway.\nThresholds for ASYMMETRIC: <60 Skip.\nThresholds for CORE: 50-59 Skip unless catalyst <30d + insider cluster. Catalyst is Aug 7 (90 days out). So Skip.\n\nAlso, anti-signal gates: none.\nEdge check: \"Nothing material emerges from the filings that the market is missing.\" Scout explicitly says this.\nVerdict: range_bound_or_income. Options IV is elevated (71% ATM), but flow is tiny. Income structure might be possible (CC or strangle), but score is too low for a publish. The dossier itself says \"appears fairly valued but not richly priced\", \"options flow... not large enough to constitute institutional conviction\", \"market might be missing nothing material\".\n\nGiven the low score (<60) and explicit lack of edge/conviction, this is a clear SKIP.\n\nLet's compute score breakdown carefully:\nsmart_money: 0 (penalty applied, capped at 0)\noptions_flow: 0\ncatalyst: 15 (earnings beats + guidance raise)\nmispricing: 5 (forward PE below peer median)\nquality: 0\ntechnical: 5 (above 50DMA, RSI 40-65)\nTotal: 25.\n\nReason: Score is well below the 60 threshold. Insider selling outweighs buying, options flow is negligible, and the dossier explicitly notes no material edge over the market. While IV is elevated enough for income strategies, the lack of catalyst proximity and weak fundamental momentum make it uninvestable per pipeline standards.\n\nI will format the output exactly as requested for a skip.\nCheck structure:\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 25,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 15,\n \"mispricing\": 5,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 5\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 60 threshold due to zero insider conviction (net selling), negligible options flow, and missing quality/momentum data. The dossier itself admits no material edge exists, and the next catalyst is ~90 days out, making income structures unattractive relative to the risk.\"\n}\nWait, let's verify catalyst scoring: \"10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\". Next earnings is Aug 7. Today is roughly May 20 (based on Q1 results May 8). So it's within 90 days. +10.\n\"5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\". +5.\nTotal 15. Correct.\n\nMispricing: \"5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median\". Dossier says Mohawk trades 15-18x. 12x is ~20-33% below. +5.\nTechnical: \"3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\" -> only above 50DMA. \"2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\" -> 51.4. So +2.\nTotal technical: 2. (I'll adjust to 2).\nLet's recalculate total: 0+0+15+5+0+2 = 22.\nI'll stick with ~22-25. It's firmly in skip territory.\n\nOne detail: The prompt says \"Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\". I'll set smart_money to 0 (can't go negative).\nI will output the JSON.\nCheck format requirements: \"ONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that sub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\" -> This applies to PROCEED. For SKIP, it's the skip schema.\n\"IF YOU SKIP — output exactly: { \"skip\": true, \"score\": ..., \"score_breakdown\": ..., \"reason\": ... }\"\nAll good.\nProceed. \nI will double check the scoring to be precise.\nA: 0\nB: 0\nC: 15\nD: 5\nE: 0\nF: 2\nTotal: 22.\nReason matches.\nOutput matches schema.\nDone. \nOne minor thing: The prompt says \"market_cap field\" for risk class, but it's missing. I'll just skip it as score < 60 regardless.\nReady. \nOutput matches exactly. \nProceeds. \n[Self-Correction/Verification during thought]\nWait, let's look at C catalyst again. \"10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\". Yes.\n\"5 pts: recent guidance raise\". Yes.\nTotal 15.\nD mispricing: 5.\nF technical: 2.\nTotal 22.\nScore is definitely <60. Skip is correct.\nI will generate the JSON. \nAll constraints met. \nOutput matches request. \nProceeds. \n```json\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 22,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 15,\n \"mispricing\": 5,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 2\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 60 threshold due to zero insider conviction (net selling), negligible options flow, and missing quality/momentum data. The dossier explicitly notes no material edge exists, and the next earnings catalyst is ~90 days out, making income structures unattractive relative to the risk.\"\n}\n```\nMatches perfectly. No extra text.\nDone. \nOutput generation. \n(Self-Correction/Refinement during generation prep)\nCheck technical scoring: \"3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\" -> false. \"2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\" -> true. So 2 pts. Correct.\nCheck mispricing: \"5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median\" -> dossier says Mohawk 15-18x, TILE 12x. That's ~20-33% below. I'll give 5.\nCheck catalyst: 10 + 5 = 15.\nTotal 22.\nAll good.\nOutput matches. \nProceeds. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]\n\"IF YOU SKIP — output exactly: { ... }\"\n\"ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.\"\nI will output raw JSON.\nDone. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n\n\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 22,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 15,\n \"mispricing\": 5,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 2\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 60 threshold due to zero insider conviction (net selling), negligible options flow, and missing quality/momentum data. The dossier explicitly notes no material edge exists, and the next earnings catalyst is ~90 days out, making income structures unattractive relative to the risk.\"\n}", "cleaned_content": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 22,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 15,\n \"mispricing\": 5,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 2\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 60 threshold due to zero insider conviction (net selling), negligible options flow, and missing quality/momentum data. The dossier explicitly notes no material edge exists, and the next earnings catalyst is ~90 days out, making income structures unattractive relative to the risk.\"\n}", "tool_calls": null, "finish_reason": "stop" } ], "tool_results": [], "final_message": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 22,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 15,\n \"mispricing\": 5,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 2\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 60 threshold due to zero insider conviction (net selling), negligible options flow, and missing quality/momentum data. The dossier explicitly notes no material edge exists, and the next earnings catalyst is ~90 days out, making income structures unattractive relative to the risk.\"\n}", "tool_calls_total": 0, "walltime_ms": 67251, "stop_reason": "stop", "completed_at": "2026-05-20T15:56:26.577Z" }