{ "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b", "started_at": "2026-05-20T16:17:40.753Z", "system_prompt": "You are Analyst, the thesis-judgment stage of an AI trade-ideas pipeline.\n\nScout has already gathered a JSON dossier of scoring_inputs. Your job is to\nSCORE the dossier against the methodology rubric and either draft an idea\n(if score ≥ 60) or skip.\n\nOPTION B (skip) IS THE EXPECTED DEFAULT. The pipeline publishes rarely and\nonly when something clears a high bar. Most dossiers should return\n{ \"skip\": true, \"reason\": \"...\", \"score\": }. Mediocre publishes burn\nDevil's Advocate budget and create credibility risk on the public site.\n\nLOOK AT THE FULL STRUCTURE MENU. Even when Scout says 'no asymmetric long\nopportunity exists' (verdict=range_bound_or_income), there may be a clear\nINCOME structure (covered call against the high; strangle inside an IV-\nelevated band; CSP at a downside-defended strike). Don't reflex-skip just\nbecause long_stock isn't attractive. Read the dossier looking for what\nSHAPE OF TRADE fits, not just whether long is fits.\n\nSCORING RUBRIC (sum to max 100)\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.smart_money\n • 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in\n last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\n • +3 pts if CEO is among the buyers\n • +3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\n • +2 pts if total purchases > $5M\n • 5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add (Berkshire, Pershing\n Square, Appaloosa, Greenlight, Scion, Polen, Pabrai, Tepper, etc.)\n • +3 pts if it's in the manager's top-3 positions\n • 2 pts for politician STOCK Act recent buy\n • +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\n • Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.options_flow\n • 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish\n and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\n • 3 pts: bullish IV skew (call IV > put IV) consistent with thesis\n • 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30 (sustained call-side flow)\n • 1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\n • Penalty: −5 pts if whale_put_blocks_otm ≥ 2 and bias is bearish\n without a hedging explanation\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.catalyst\n • 10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\n • 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\n • 5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\n • 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind (named hyperscaler capex flowing\n to this name in $)\n Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.mispricing\n • 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median (with non-deteriorating\n earnings)\n • 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median\n • 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7% with stable FCF\n • 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25% (replaces one of the above)\n Cap at 15.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.quality\n • 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15% (or trending there)\n • 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY\n • 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.technical\n • 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\n • 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector\n • 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\n • 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\n\nRISK CLASS — choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field:\n \"core\" — market_cap > $5B. Standard methodology sizing.\n \"asymmetric\" — market_cap ≤ $5B (small-cap moonshot). 90%+ of these\n bets lose money or go to zero; the few that work pay\n for the rest. Position sizing is far more conservative\n to fit the variance.\n\nTHRESHOLDS — depend on risk_class\n\n CORE risk_class:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 4-5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 2.5-3.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 1.5-2.0%\n 50-59 Skip unless catalyst <30d + insider cluster\n < 50 Skip\n\n ASYMMETRIC risk_class — strict sizing:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 1.5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 1.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 0.5%\n < 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\n Structure must be long_stock (options structures are wrong shape for\n moonshots; Compliance enforces this in code).\n\nANTI-SIGNAL GATES (any one of these forces skip regardless of score):\n • Going-concern audit qualification\n • Pending material litigation (DOJ/SEC enforcement, class action with merit)\n • Customer concentration > 30%\n • Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\n • Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\n • Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\n • Pump-and-dump signals (sudden volume + chat-room mentions)\n\nIf scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a\ngate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\n\nEDGE CHECK (philosophical, not numeric)\n\nAfter scoring, ask: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already\nknow?\" If the answer is generic (it's cheap, AI is a tailwind, technicals\nlook great), the score is misleading — skip even if numerical score is 65.\nReal edge means a specific data point or interpretation the market missed.\n\nSCOUT VERDICT → STRUCTURE GUIDANCE\n\nRead scoring_inputs and Scout's verdict together. The verdict tells you\nWHICH structures Scout thinks are in scope for this name:\n\n verdict='promising' → long_stock | csp (for asymmetric long)\n verdict='range_bound_or_income' → cc | strangle | csp on pullback\n (DON'T default to long_stock — Scout\n already said this isn't an asymmetric\n long. Look at IV elevated → strangle;\n stock at 52w high, fundamentals healthy\n → cc against implicit long; pullback\n thesis with cash → csp)\n verdict='bearish_setup' → naked_call (rarely; respect ceiling)\n\nIf Scout supplied structure_hints[], they're a starting point. You can\noverride with reasoning, but if you go OUTSIDE the verdict's natural set,\nexplain why in thesis_long.\n\nSTRUCTURE SELECTION — full menu:\n\n long_stock — multi-quarter asymmetric thesis, IV not elevated, want\n full upside participation\n csp — bullish, want to own at strike, IV elevated, ann yield ≥15%\n cc — range-bound or mildly bullish, IV elevated, on top of long\n stock leg, if-called return ≥15% ann\n strangle — RANGE-BOUND thesis with elevated IV. Sell OTM call + OTM\n put. Need: comfortable owning at put_strike, no parabolic\n upside expectation. Ann yield ≥12%. Compute and emit\n breakeven_high (call_strike + total_premium) and\n breakeven_low (put_strike - total_premium).\n naked_put — same setup as CSP but using margin. ~2x yield, margin call\n risk. Only for margin-equipped accounts. Note explicitly.\n naked_call — bearish setup with elevated IV. UNCAPPED loss if rally.\n Confidence ceiling 4 (Compliance enforces). Requires\n explicit upside-shock thesis + defense plan in conditions.\n\nMatch the structure to the thesis shape — don't reach for naked options\njust because the premium is fatter. Most candidates are best as long_stock\nor CSP. Strangles only when you have a clear range thesis backed by IV\nand fundamentals.\n\nIF YOU SKIP — output exactly:\n {\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n }\n\nIF YOU PROCEED — output a draft idea matching this schema (this is the same\nschema the published site renders from):\n\n{\n \"skip\": false,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"draft\": {\n \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-keyphrase\",\n \"symbol\": \"TICKER\",\n \"company\": \"Full name\",\n \"sector\": \"semis-ai-infra\" | \"small-cap-asymmetric\",\n \"risk_class\": \"core\" | \"asymmetric\",\n \"headline\": \"Punchy 1-line — the news angle on the thesis\",\n \"thesis_short\": \"1 sentence — why this trade exists.\",\n \"thesis_long\": [\n \"Opening paragraph framing the setup.\",\n \"## Catalyst\",\n \"Detailed catalyst narrative.\",\n \"## Why the market is mispricing this\",\n \"Edge explanation, citing dossier facts.\",\n \"## Numbers\",\n \"- Bullet 1 with concrete numbers from the dossier\",\n \"- Bullet 2\",\n \"## Risk\",\n \"Honest description of what could go wrong.\"\n ],\n \"structure\": {\n \"type\": \"long_stock\" | \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\" | \"naked_put\" | \"naked_call\",\n \"long_stock\": { \"entry_zone_low\": , \"entry_zone_high\": , \"shares_per_unit\": 100 },\n \"csp\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"if_assigned_basis\": },\n \"cc\": { \"underlying_basis\": , \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"if_called_return_pct\": },\n \"strangle\": { \"call_strike\": , \"put_strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_premium_target\": , \"put_premium_target\": , \"total_premium_target\": , \"breakeven_high\": , \"breakeven_low\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_note\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_put\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_per_contract\": , \"margin_estimate_per_contract\": , \"warning\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_call\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss\": \"UNLIMITED\", \"warning\": \"...\" }\n },\n \"entry\": {\n \"price_at_idea\": ,\n \"conditions\": \"How/when to enter — e.g., 'Open starter on pullback to MA50.'\"\n },\n \"exit\": {\n \"target_price\": ,\n \"time_horizon_months\": ,\n \"stop_conditions\": \"Specific signal(s) that trigger a close.\"\n },\n \"risk\": {\n \"bear_case\": \"Honest, specific bear case (not generic 'market could fall').\",\n \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Specific event/data that invalidates the call.\",\n \"position_size_pct\": <0.5 to 5.0, conviction-weighted>\n },\n \"sources\": [\n { \"label\": \"...\", \"url\": \"...\" }\n ],\n \"confidence\": <1-5, conservative>,\n \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\",\n \"devils_advocate_verdict\": null\n }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that\nsub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\n\nALL NUMBERS must be drawn from the dossier or computable from it. Do not\ninvent prices, strikes, premiums.\n\nOUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.", "user_prompt": "Here is the dossier from Scout. Decide: skip or draft.\n\n\nLESSONS LEARNED: none yet.\n\nDOSSIER:\n{\n \"symbol\": \"RKLB\",\n \"company\": \"Rocket Lab Corporation\",\n \"investigation_summary\": \"Rocket Lab is a high-quality end-to-end space company with proven launch reliability (77 successful missions) and a rapidly growing space systems segment built via acquisitions. Revenue grew 63% YoY to $679M FY2025, but the stock has run +188% YTD to all-time highs near $138 — now sitting at ~$133 with RSI at 71.9. The company is still deeply loss-making (operating margin -22%), and traditional P/E ratios are meaningless on an unprofitable pre-revenue-scale name. Recent M&A activity (Mynaric AG, Motiv Space Systems) expands its defense infrastructure story, but the valuation appears to price in near-perfect execution of Neutron development and space systems synergy capture with minimal discount for risk. No open-market insider purchases from executives were found; director selling was observed at higher prices. The upcoming earnings catalyst on Aug 6 is real (record backlog cited: $2.22B) but already well-known to the market.\",\n \"verdict\": \"range_bound_or_income\",\n \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n \"structure_hints\": [\n \"cc\",\n \"csp\"\n ],\n \"business_snapshot\": \"Rocket Lab Corp operates two business segments — Launch Services and Space Systems — across US, NZ, Canada and Australia. Its Electron rocket is the #2 most-launched orbital vehicle globally in 2025 with 75 successful missions through end-2025; it deploys spacecraft up to 300kg for LEO from its private launch complex LC-1 (NZ) and NASA Wallops LC-2 (Virginia). The Space Systems segment is a rapidly growing constellation of acquired businesses (Sinclair Interplanetary, SolAero Technologies, GEOST LLC, Mynaric AG, Motiv Space Systems) providing spacecraft components, solar cells, optical/EO-IR systems, separation mechanisms and space robotics. FY2025 revenue was $679M (+63.5% YoY). Q1 2026 revenue was $200.3M (+63.4% YoY), with backlog of $2.22B (36% expected within 12 months). The company burns ~$45-55M per quarter in operating losses, but its $1.21B cash position provides a multi-year runway to scale Neutron medium-lift launch vehicle and capture constellation-class customers.\",\n \"scoring_inputs\": {\n \"smart_money\": {\n \"insider_open_market_purchases_90d\": [],\n \"insider_open_market_total_usd_90d\": 0,\n \"distinct_insider_buyers_90d\": 0,\n \"ceo_buy_present\": false,\n \"cfo_buy_present\": false,\n \"material_insider_selling_90d_usd\": 11400000,\n \"notable_13f_holders\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ],\n \"politician_recent_buys\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ]\n },\n \"catalyst\": {\n \"next_earnings_date\": \"2026-08-06\",\n \"recent_eps_surprise_pattern\": \"Q3 2025 beat by +71%, Q4 2025 beat by +8.2%, Q1 2026 beat by +11% — consistent positive surprise trend as revenue scales toward breakeven\",\n \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": false,\n \"named_catalysts\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"earnings\",\n \"description\": \"Q2 2026 earnings Aug 6, 2026 with record backlog of $2.22B providing near-term revenue visibility\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-08-06\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/5-must-read-analyst-questions-171655361.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"product\",\n \"description\": \"Neutron medium-lift launch vehicle development — LC-3 construction at Virginia Wallops, expected to support reusable launches for large constellation customers. Timeline is multi-year.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2027+\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000013/rklb-20251231.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"m&a\",\n \"description\": \"Mynaric AG acquisition (laser comms) and Motiv Space Systems acquisition (space robotics) — expanding defense infrastructure capabilities; Mynaric tied to Golden Dome for America program alongside RTX\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"Q2-Q3 2026\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/rocket-lab-expands-defense-infrastructure-091413314.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"sector\",\n \"description\": \"SpaceX IPO S-1 filing (May 2026) — investor interest in space sector increasing; Rocket Lab potentially benefits as secondary beneficiary of capital flows into listed space names\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"May-June 2026\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/video/spacex-filing-boosts-space-stocks-bofa-resumes-servicenow-coverage-154113234.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n }\n ]\n },\n \"mispricing\": {\n \"forward_pe\": null,\n \"sector_median_forward_pe\": null,\n \"ev_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"sector_median_ev_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"fcf_yield_pct\": null,\n \"narrative\": \"Rocket Lab is unprofitable with deeply negative EBITDA and no meaningful P/E, making standard multiples inapplicable. EV/EBITDA is -430x, a reflection of pre-scale losses not mispricing in the traditional sense. The company commands an $76.9B market cap on ~$680M TTM revenue (11.3x EV/Revenue) — rich for a loss-making aerospace manufacturer but defensible given 63% revenue growth and the optionality of Neutron capturing constellation contracts. At all-time highs with +188% YTD gain, there's minimal margin of safety unless Neutron milestones materialize as catalysts.\"\n },\n \"quality\": {\n \"roic_pct\": null,\n \"gross_margin_trend_pp_yoy\": null,\n \"net_debt_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"balance_sheet_grade\": \"A\"\n },\n \"technical\": {\n \"above_50dma\": true,\n \"above_200dma\": true,\n \"rsi_14\": 71.9,\n \"macd_recent_bullish_cross\": true,\n \"12_1_momentum_vs_sector_pct\": 187.76\n }\n },\n \"price_context\": {\n \"last_close\": 132.86,\n \"ytd_return_pct\": 187.76,\n \"from_52w_high_pct\": 3.99\n },\n \"filings_reviewed\": [\n {\n \"form\": \"10-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-02-26\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000013/rklb-20251231.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"FY2025 revenue $679.6M (+63.5% YoY); operating loss $(152M); 77 successful missions, over 200 spacecraft deployed as of Dec 31 2025; backlog referenced in earnings commentary but exact figure not stated in K; LC-1 capable of 120 launches/year from two pads; Neutron development ongoing with LC-3 under construction at Virginia Wallops; GEOST acquisition closed Aug 12 2025 for $290M ($125M cash + stock + earnout); preferred stock exchange Dec 2024 eliminated dilutive preferred holders including CEO Peter Beck trust; convertible notes Feb 2024 ($355M, 4.25%); government revenue concentration noted as material risk (MDA Corp, Lockheed Martin named as top customers)\",\n \"Q1 FY2026 filed May 7 2026: Revenue $200.3M (+63% YoY); operating loss $(56M); backlog $2.22B; cash $1.21B; Mynaric and Motiv acquisitions announced as subsequent events post quarter-end\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"10-Q\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-07\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000028/rklb-20260331.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Q1 2026: Revenue $200.3M (+63% YoY); gross margin 38.2% vs 28.8% YoY (significant improvement); operating expenses grew to $132M as R&D scaled on Neutron; net loss $(45M) improving from $(61M); record backlog of $2.22B with 36% expected within 12 months; contract liabilities $241M growing from $195M at year-end — customers paying ahead indicating strong demand; Kratos SRE identified as new top customer (21% of AR at Q1); government customer concentration 36% of revenue in quarter\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"8-K\",\n \"filed\": null,\n \"url\": \"pending — edgar_recent_filings not called for 8-K separately\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"M&A subsequent events: Mynaric AG acquisition (laser communications, defense space infrastructure); Motiv Space Systems acquisition (space robotics for Mars rovers and precision mechanisms)\"\n ]\n }\n ],\n \"options_context\": {\n \"expiries_examined\": [\n \"2026-08-21\"\n ],\n \"iv_summary\": \"ATM IV at Aug 21 expiry (~92 DTE): calls ~98.9%, puts ~97.4% — elevated, reflecting the company's high-beta small-cap space profile with binary event risk around Q2 earnings (Aug 6)\",\n \"notable_skew_or_flow\": \"Put/call ratio of 1.77 on nearest aggregate expiry indicates meaningful hedging demand or put-writing activity; top open interest calls at $150 and puts at $100 suggest bull spread / covered put positioning by institutional holders near current price levels rather than directional speculative bets\"\n },\n \"competitive_landscape\": \"Rocket Lab competes in small-launch (Electron, ~$6-7M per mission) against SpaceX (Falcon 9 for larger payloads), Relativity Space (Terran R developing), and Astra. In medium-lift Neutron targets constellation deployments alongside Falcon 9 and future vehicles from Blue Origin and others. In space systems components, competes with established primes (Maxar, MDA) and smaller suppliers (SolAero's solar cells face competition from Spectrolab). Mynaric acquisition positions Rocket Lab against L3Harris in laser communications for satellite constellations — a high-growth niche. Defense programs like Golden Dome create long-duration revenue visibility not available to most small-caps.\",\n \"key_risks\": [\n \"Neutron development delays or cost overruns could impair the medium-lift thesis and erode cash faster than projected\",\n \"Stock at all-time highs with RSI 71.9 leaves no technical cushion — any negative catalyst (launch failure, dilution from ATM usage) causes outsized drawdown\",\n \"Continued heavy dilution via ATM equity offerings ($445M raised in Q1 2026 alone); share count grew materially YoY\",\n \"Government customer concentration risk: DoD/NASA funding changes or contract cancellations would materially impact revenue\",\n \"SpaceX dominance in medium and heavy lift could crowd out Neutron's commercial addressable market if Falcon pricing remains aggressive\",\n \"Loss-making company with no clear path to quarterly profitability — any guidance disappointment triggers multiple compression\"\n ],\n \"what_the_market_might_be_missing\": \"The GEOST acquisition (Aug 2025, $290M) brought optical/EO-IR systems for missile tracking and space domain awareness — this capability was specifically tied to the Golden Dome for America initiative alongside RTX. The market has not fully quantified this defense revenue stream's potential scale or assigned premium multiples to the recurring services model vs one-time launch transactions. However, given current price at all-time highs with no discount for binary Neutron/capital risks, any edge here appears already priced in — making range_bound_or_income the appropriate structured thesis on pullbacks rather than a fresh asymmetric long.\",\n \"anti_signals_present\": [\n \"dilution\",\n \"concentration\"\n ],\n \"sources\": [\n {\n \"label\": \"10-K FY2025 (Feb 26, 2026)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000013/rklb-20251231.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"10-Q Q1 2026 (May 7, 2026)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000181999426000028/rklb-20260331.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 — Arjun Kampani (RSU grant, Mar 26, 2026)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000200101126000031/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 — Adam Spice CFO gift (Mar 24, 2026)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000200101126000029/xslF345X06/primary_doc.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 — Alexander Slusky director selling (May 14, 2026)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819994/000200101126000048/xslF345X06/edgardoc.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Yahoo Finance news stream RKLB 90d\",\n \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/?symbol=RKLB&type=news&startDate=&endDate=\"\n }\n ],\n \"unfetched_signals\": [\n \"13f_deltas\",\n \"politician_trades\",\n \"sentiment_score\"\n ]\n}\n\nOutput ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT\ninclude ... reasoning blocks — they eat the output token\nbudget and produce truncated, unparseable decisions.", "completions": [ { "ts": "2026-05-20T16:18:16.534Z", "raw_content": "The user wants me to score the dossier for RKLB and decide whether to skip or draft.\nI will follow the scoring rubric strictly.\nLet's calculate the score based on `scoring_inputs`.\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25)\n- 0 pts: 0 distinct insider buyers, total purchases $0.\n- 0 pts: CEO/CFO not buyers.\n- 0 pts: total purchases not > $5M.\n- 0 pts: no notable 13F initiation.\n- 0 pts: no politician buy.\n- Penalty: -10 pts for material insider selling > buying ($11.4M selling vs $0 buying).\nWait, the rubric says \"Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\". So score is -10? Or capped at 0? Usually scores are capped at 0 for a category. I'll set smart_money to 0.\nActually, the rubric says \"sum to max 100\". I'll just put 0 for smart_money.\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10)\n- 0 pts: no whale call blocks mentioned. Put/call ratio 1.77 indicates hedging/put-writing, not bullish call flow.\n- 0 pts: IV skew? ATM IV calls 98.9%, puts 97.4%. Not particularly bullish skew.\n- 0 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct not given, but put/call ratio 1.77 suggests put bias.\n- 0 pts: no large OI building at defended level mentioned as bullish.\nOptions flow score: 0.\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25)\n- 10 pts? Earnings within 90 days? Next earnings date: 2026-08-06. Current date in dossier context seems to be around May 2026 (Q1 2026 filed May 7, 2026). So Aug 6 is within 90 days. But EPS surprise pattern: Q3 2025 beat +71%, Q4 2025 beat +8.2%, Q1 2026 beat +11%. Consistent positive surprise. So 10 pts for earnings.\n- 5 pts: guidance raise? false.\n- 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind? \"SpaceX IPO S-1 filing (May 2026) — investor interest in space sector increasing\". Not exactly named hyperscaler capex flowing to this name in $, but maybe 0 pts for sector tailwind as it's not specific to RKLB's $ flow.\n- 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone? Neutron is 2027+. M&A is Q2-Q3 2026. Not a clear milestone catalyst.\nLet's give catalyst 10 pts for earnings.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15)\n- 0 pts: forward P/E null.\n- 0 pts: EV/EBITDA null/negative.\n- 0 pts: FCF yield null.\n- 0 pts: SOTP gap null.\nMispricing score: 0.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15)\n- 0 pts: ROIC null.\n- 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY? Q1 2026 gross margin 38.2% vs 28.8% YoY. That's +9.4 pp. So 5 pts.\n- 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x? Company has $1.21B cash, negative EBITDA. Balance sheet grade A. I'll give 5 pts for strong balance sheet / net cash position despite losses, or 0 since EBITDA is negative. The rubric says \"net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\". It has net cash. So 5 pts.\nQuality score: 10.\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10)\n- 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA.\n- 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector? YTD return 187.76%, momentum vs sector 187.76%. Positive and beating sector. 4 pts.\n- 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone? RSI is 71.9. Not in zone. 0 pts.\n- 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days? Yes. 1 pt.\nTechnical score: 8.\n\nTotal Score: 0 + 0 + 10 + 0 + 10 + 8 = 28.\nWait, let's double check catalyst. Earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%. It says Q3 2025 beat, Q4 2025 beat, Q1 2026 beat. That's 3 quarters. I'll give 10 pts.\nEven if I give more, it won't cross 60.\nScore is well below 60.\nRisk class: market_cap is $76.9B (from narrative). So \"core\".\nThresholds for core: < 50 Skip.\nAnti-signal gates: \"dilution\", \"concentration\". Concentration > 30%? Dossier says \"government customer concentration 36% of revenue in quarter\" and \"Kratos SRE identified as new top customer (21% of AR at Q1)\". Total customer concentration > 30% is likely. Dilution is also flagged.\nThe dossier explicitly says: \"verdict: range_bound_or_income\", \"stock at all-time highs\", \"minimal margin of safety\", \"dilution\", \"concentration\".\nI will skip.\nReason: Score is low (~28) due to lack of insider buying, elevated valuation at all-time highs, and unprofitable status. Anti-signals for dilution and customer concentration further invalidate the setup. The market has already priced in the near-term catalysts, and the stock lacks the margin of safety or income structure viability at these levels.\n\nLet's calculate score breakdown carefully to match rubric:\nsmart_money: 0 (insider selling > buying triggers penalty, capped at 0)\noptions_flow: 0 (put/call ratio 1.77 indicates hedging, no bullish whale flow)\ncatalyst: 10 (earnings within 90d with consistent positive EPS surprise history)\nmispricing: 0 (unprofitable, EV/Rev 11.3x at ATH, no traditional multiples)\nquality: 10 (gross margin expanded +9.4pp YoY; strong net cash position despite losses)\ntechnical: 8 (above 50/200DMA, strong momentum vs sector, MACD bullish cross)\nTotal: 28.\n\nCheck thresholds: < 50 Skip.\nOutput format: exactly the skip JSON.\nI will construct the JSON carefully.\nOne detail: \"government customer concentration 36% of revenue in quarter\" -> exceeds 30% gate. \"dilution\" also flagged.\nI'll mention these in the reason.\nReady.\nOutput matches requested schema.\nProceed. \nLet's verify the score breakdown sums to 28.\nsmart_money: 0\noptions_flow: 0\ncatalyst: 10\nmispricing: 0\nquality: 10\ntechnical: 8\nTotal: 28.\nAll good.\nOutput matches exactly.\nNo extra text.\nDone. \nSelf-Correction/Refinement during thought: \nWait, the rubric says for smart_money: \"Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\". I'll put 0 as scores are typically non-negative in these pipelines, or I could put -10? The prompt says \"sum to max 100\", usually components are 0-25. I'll stick to 0.\nI will output the JSON exactly.\nCheck structure: \n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 28,\n \"score_breakdown\": { ... },\n \"reason\": \"...\"\n}\nMatches.\nProceeds. \nOne minor point: The prompt says \"Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\". I'll just cap it at 0 for the breakdown, or leave it as 0. It's fine.\nAll set. \nOutput generation. \n[Done] \nOutput matches response. \nProceeds. \n(Self-Correction/Verification during generation prep)\nLet's quickly recalculate Catalyst: \"10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\". The dossier says Q3 2025, Q4 2025, Q1 2026 beat. That's 3 quarters. I'll give 8 pts for \"pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone\" or just stick to 10 for earnings assuming the 4th quarter is implied or close enough, or give 8. It doesn't change the skip decision. I'll keep it at 10.\nQuality: Gross margin +9.4pp YoY -> 5 pts. Net cash -> 5 pts. Total 10.\nTechnical: 3+4+0+1 = 8.\nTotal = 28.\nSkip is definitive.\nReason will cite low score, ATH valuation, dilution/concentration anti-signals, and lack of asymmetric upside or viable income structure at current levels.\nReady. \nOutput matches requested format.✅\nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n\n\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 28,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 10,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 8\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score sits at 28 due to zero smart-money accumulation, unprofitable status at all-time highs, and active anti-signal gates (dilution and >30% customer concentration). The stock has already run +188% YTD with elevated RSI, pricing in near-term catalysts; no margin of safety exists for a long thesis, and the current price/IV environment does not support a viable covered call or strangle without taking asymmetric downside risk.\"\n}", "cleaned_content": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 28,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 10,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 8\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score sits at 28 due to zero smart-money accumulation, unprofitable status at all-time highs, and active anti-signal gates (dilution and >30% customer concentration). The stock has already run +188% YTD with elevated RSI, pricing in near-term catalysts; no margin of safety exists for a long thesis, and the current price/IV environment does not support a viable covered call or strangle without taking asymmetric downside risk.\"\n}", "tool_calls": null, "finish_reason": "stop" } ], "tool_results": [], "final_message": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 28,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 10,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 8\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score sits at 28 due to zero smart-money accumulation, unprofitable status at all-time highs, and active anti-signal gates (dilution and >30% customer concentration). The stock has already run +188% YTD with elevated RSI, pricing in near-term catalysts; no margin of safety exists for a long thesis, and the current price/IV environment does not support a viable covered call or strangle without taking asymmetric downside risk.\"\n}", "tool_calls_total": 0, "walltime_ms": 35782, "stop_reason": "stop", "completed_at": "2026-05-20T16:18:16.535Z" }