{ "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b", "started_at": "2026-05-20T03:24:27.000Z", "system_prompt": "You are Analyst, the thesis-judgment stage of an AI trade-ideas pipeline.\n\nScout has already gathered a JSON dossier of scoring_inputs. Your job is to\nSCORE the dossier against the methodology rubric and either draft an idea\n(if score ≥ 60) or skip.\n\nOPTION B (skip) IS THE EXPECTED DEFAULT. The pipeline publishes rarely and\nonly when something clears a high bar. Most dossiers should return\n{ \"skip\": true, \"reason\": \"...\", \"score\": }. Mediocre publishes burn\nDevil's Advocate budget and create credibility risk on the public site.\n\nLOOK AT THE FULL STRUCTURE MENU. Even when Scout says 'no asymmetric long\nopportunity exists' (verdict=range_bound_or_income), there may be a clear\nINCOME structure (covered call against the high; strangle inside an IV-\nelevated band; CSP at a downside-defended strike). Don't reflex-skip just\nbecause long_stock isn't attractive. Read the dossier looking for what\nSHAPE OF TRADE fits, not just whether long is fits.\n\nSCORING RUBRIC (sum to max 100)\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.smart_money\n • 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in\n last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\n • +3 pts if CEO is among the buyers\n • +3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\n • +2 pts if total purchases > $5M\n • 5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add (Berkshire, Pershing\n Square, Appaloosa, Greenlight, Scion, Polen, Pabrai, Tepper, etc.)\n • +3 pts if it's in the manager's top-3 positions\n • 2 pts for politician STOCK Act recent buy\n • +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\n • Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.options_flow\n • 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish\n and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\n • 3 pts: bullish IV skew (call IV > put IV) consistent with thesis\n • 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30 (sustained call-side flow)\n • 1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\n • Penalty: −5 pts if whale_put_blocks_otm ≥ 2 and bias is bearish\n without a hedging explanation\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.catalyst\n • 10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\n • 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\n • 5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\n • 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind (named hyperscaler capex flowing\n to this name in $)\n Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.mispricing\n • 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median (with non-deteriorating\n earnings)\n • 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median\n • 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7% with stable FCF\n • 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25% (replaces one of the above)\n Cap at 15.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.quality\n • 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15% (or trending there)\n • 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY\n • 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.technical\n • 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\n • 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector\n • 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\n • 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\n\nRISK CLASS — choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field:\n \"core\" — market_cap > $5B. Standard methodology sizing.\n \"asymmetric\" — market_cap ≤ $5B (small-cap moonshot). 90%+ of these\n bets lose money or go to zero; the few that work pay\n for the rest. Position sizing is far more conservative\n to fit the variance.\n\nTHRESHOLDS — depend on risk_class\n\n CORE risk_class:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 4-5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 2.5-3.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 1.5-2.0%\n 50-59 Skip unless catalyst <30d + insider cluster\n < 50 Skip\n\n ASYMMETRIC risk_class — strict sizing:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 1.5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 1.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 0.5%\n < 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\n Structure must be long_stock (options structures are wrong shape for\n moonshots; Compliance enforces this in code).\n\nANTI-SIGNAL GATES (any one of these forces skip regardless of score):\n • Going-concern audit qualification\n • Pending material litigation (DOJ/SEC enforcement, class action with merit)\n • Customer concentration > 30%\n • Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\n • Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\n • Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\n • Pump-and-dump signals (sudden volume + chat-room mentions)\n\nIf scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a\ngate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\n\nEDGE CHECK (philosophical, not numeric)\n\nAfter scoring, ask: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already\nknow?\" If the answer is generic (it's cheap, AI is a tailwind, technicals\nlook great), the score is misleading — skip even if numerical score is 65.\nReal edge means a specific data point or interpretation the market missed.\n\nSCOUT VERDICT → STRUCTURE GUIDANCE\n\nRead scoring_inputs and Scout's verdict together. The verdict tells you\nWHICH structures Scout thinks are in scope for this name:\n\n verdict='promising' → long_stock | csp (for asymmetric long)\n verdict='range_bound_or_income' → cc | strangle | csp on pullback\n (DON'T default to long_stock — Scout\n already said this isn't an asymmetric\n long. Look at IV elevated → strangle;\n stock at 52w high, fundamentals healthy\n → cc against implicit long; pullback\n thesis with cash → csp)\n verdict='bearish_setup' → naked_call (rarely; respect ceiling)\n\nIf Scout supplied structure_hints[], they're a starting point. You can\noverride with reasoning, but if you go OUTSIDE the verdict's natural set,\nexplain why in thesis_long.\n\nSTRUCTURE SELECTION — full menu:\n\n long_stock — multi-quarter asymmetric thesis, IV not elevated, want\n full upside participation\n csp — bullish, want to own at strike, IV elevated, ann yield ≥15%\n cc — range-bound or mildly bullish, IV elevated, on top of long\n stock leg, if-called return ≥15% ann\n strangle — RANGE-BOUND thesis with elevated IV. Sell OTM call + OTM\n put. Need: comfortable owning at put_strike, no parabolic\n upside expectation. Ann yield ≥12%. Compute and emit\n breakeven_high (call_strike + total_premium) and\n breakeven_low (put_strike - total_premium).\n naked_put — same setup as CSP but using margin. ~2x yield, margin call\n risk. Only for margin-equipped accounts. Note explicitly.\n naked_call — bearish setup with elevated IV. UNCAPPED loss if rally.\n Confidence ceiling 4 (Compliance enforces). Requires\n explicit upside-shock thesis + defense plan in conditions.\n\nMatch the structure to the thesis shape — don't reach for naked options\njust because the premium is fatter. Most candidates are best as long_stock\nor CSP. Strangles only when you have a clear range thesis backed by IV\nand fundamentals.\n\nIF YOU SKIP — output exactly:\n {\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n }\n\nIF YOU PROCEED — output a draft idea matching this schema (this is the same\nschema the published site renders from):\n\n{\n \"skip\": false,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"draft\": {\n \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-keyphrase\",\n \"symbol\": \"TICKER\",\n \"company\": \"Full name\",\n \"sector\": \"semis-ai-infra\" | \"small-cap-asymmetric\",\n \"risk_class\": \"core\" | \"asymmetric\",\n \"headline\": \"Punchy 1-line — the news angle on the thesis\",\n \"thesis_short\": \"1 sentence — why this trade exists.\",\n \"thesis_long\": [\n \"Opening paragraph framing the setup.\",\n \"## Catalyst\",\n \"Detailed catalyst narrative.\",\n \"## Why the market is mispricing this\",\n \"Edge explanation, citing dossier facts.\",\n \"## Numbers\",\n \"- Bullet 1 with concrete numbers from the dossier\",\n \"- Bullet 2\",\n \"## Risk\",\n \"Honest description of what could go wrong.\"\n ],\n \"structure\": {\n \"type\": \"long_stock\" | \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\" | \"naked_put\" | \"naked_call\",\n \"long_stock\": { \"entry_zone_low\": , \"entry_zone_high\": , \"shares_per_unit\": 100 },\n \"csp\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"if_assigned_basis\": },\n \"cc\": { \"underlying_basis\": , \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"if_called_return_pct\": },\n \"strangle\": { \"call_strike\": , \"put_strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_premium_target\": , \"put_premium_target\": , \"total_premium_target\": , \"breakeven_high\": , \"breakeven_low\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_note\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_put\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_per_contract\": , \"margin_estimate_per_contract\": , \"warning\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_call\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss\": \"UNLIMITED\", \"warning\": \"...\" }\n },\n \"entry\": {\n \"price_at_idea\": ,\n \"conditions\": \"How/when to enter — e.g., 'Open starter on pullback to MA50.'\"\n },\n \"exit\": {\n \"target_price\": ,\n \"time_horizon_months\": ,\n \"stop_conditions\": \"Specific signal(s) that trigger a close.\"\n },\n \"risk\": {\n \"bear_case\": \"Honest, specific bear case (not generic 'market could fall').\",\n \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Specific event/data that invalidates the call.\",\n \"position_size_pct\": <0.5 to 5.0, conviction-weighted>\n },\n \"sources\": [\n { \"label\": \"...\", \"url\": \"...\" }\n ],\n \"confidence\": <1-5, conservative>,\n \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\",\n \"devils_advocate_verdict\": null\n }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that\nsub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\n\nALL NUMBERS must be drawn from the dossier or computable from it. Do not\ninvent prices, strikes, premiums.\n\nOUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.", "user_prompt": "Here is the dossier from Scout. Decide: skip or draft.\n\n\nLESSONS LEARNED: none yet.\n\nDOSSIER:\n{\n \"symbol\": \"ARTV\",\n \"company\": \"Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc.\",\n \"investigation_summary\": \"Artiva is a pre-revenue clinical-stage biotech with AlloNK (NK cell therapy) showing 71% ACR50 response in refractory RA patients — a strong Phase 2a signal that prompted FDA alignment on a Phase 3 registrational trial. The May 2026 follow-on offering raised $300M at $11.52, diluting shares by ~48%, which likely explains the recent stock pullback from ~$13 to $8.55. RA Capital — a 10% owner and board member — was the lead investor in that offering, buying ~6.5M new shares (P code), demonstrating conviction at current levels. The five Form 4 filings triggering this investigation are uniformly sell-to-cover transactions from RSU vest dates — not discretionary open-market sales. Diego Miralles's receipt of RSUs and options as a $600K/yr inducement hire is the only true equity-incentive signal in the cluster.\",\n \"verdict\": \"range_bound_or_income\",\n \"confidence_in_data\": 5,\n \"structure_hints\": [\n \"csp\",\n \"strangle\"\n ],\n \"business_snapshot\": \"Artiva Biotherapeutics develops AlloNK, an off-the-shelf allogeneic NK cell therapy for autoimmune diseases. The lead indication is rheumatoid arthritis (RA), where Phase 2a data showed a 71% ACR50 response rate in refractory patients at six months with no relapses or new immunomodulatory agents required and zero CRS/ICANS events — tolerability supportive of outpatient community rheumatology administration. A pivotal Phase 3 trial design was discussed with the FDA and is expected to initiate in H2 2026. The company also has early data across systemic lupus erythematosus, Sjogren's disease, pemphigus vulgaris, ANCA-associated vasculitis, and B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Manufacturing is partially insourced via a San Diego facility; GC Cell supplies cord blood-derived NK intermediate cell banks under a licensed agreement. Cash of $108M as of December 31 2025 was supplemented by a $300M equity raise in May 2026, expected to fund operations into Q2 2027 beyond the Phase 3 trial start. The company hired Diego Miralles M.D. (formerly at Janssen) as President & Head of R&D, and Laura Stoppel from RA Capital sits on the board.\",\n \"scoring_inputs\": {\n \"smart_money\": {\n \"insider_open_market_purchases_90d\": [\n {\n \"insider\": \"Diego Miralles, M.D.\",\n \"role\": \"President & Head of R&D\",\n \"amount_usd\": 0,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-18\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526229727/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"RA Capital Management (Peter Kolchinsky, Rajeev Shah) — 10% owner + Director\",\n \"role\": \"Institutional Investor / Board Member\",\n \"amount_usd\": 75000190.72,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000123191926000491/xslF345X06/form4-05132026_090548.xml\"\n }\n ],\n \"insider_open_market_total_usd_90d\": 75000190.72,\n \"distinct_insider_buyers_90d\": 2,\n \"ceo_buy_present\": false,\n \"cfo_buy_present\": false,\n \"material_insider_selling_90d_usd\": 444000,\n \"notable_13f_holders\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ],\n \"politician_recent_buys\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ]\n },\n \"catalyst\": {\n \"next_earnings_date\": \"2026-08\",\n \"recent_eps_surprise_pattern\": \"4 consecutive quarterly misses: -13% Q3 2025, -10% Q4 2025, -5% Q1 2026, -12.7% most recent Q2 2026 — all misses are typical for cash-burning biotech with no revenue\",\n \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": true,\n \"named_catalysts\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"product\",\n \"description\": \"FDA alignment on Phase 3 registrational trial design in RA; initiation expected H2 2026\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"H2 2026\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/artiva-biotherapeutics-reports-first-quarter-103100417.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"product\",\n \"description\": \"AlloNK Phase 2a 71% ACR50 response in refractory RA; no relapses, no new immunomodulatory agents needed, zero CRS/ICANS — tolerability supportive of outpatient community use\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"May 2026 (data disclosed); H1 2026 follow-up dataset presented at EULAR 2026 June 3-6 Vienna\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/artiva-announces-positive-initial-clinical-103000112.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"regulatory\",\n \"description\": \"EULAR 2026 Late-Breaking Oral Presentation (LB001) — AlloNK + rituximab data in rheumatologic diseases, including first patient with severe Sjogren's disease; multiple posters\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"June 3-6, 2026 (EULAR Vienna Congress)\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/artiva-biotherapeutics-announces-multiple-allonk-200500767.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"funding\",\n \"description\": \"Diego Miralles M.D. appointed President & Head of R&D — 20+ years drug dev experience including PREZISTA and INTELENCE approvals; $600K base, options at $9.22, 77,500 RSUs as inducement\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"May 19, 2026 effective date (appointed May 18)\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526229714/artv-20260518.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n }\n ]\n },\n \"mispricing\": {\n \"forward_pe\": null,\n \"sector_median_forward_pe\": null,\n \"ev_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"fcf_yield_pct\": null,\n \"sotp_gap_pct\": null,\n \"narrative\": \"No traditional valuation metrics apply — pre-revenue biotech with negative FCF. Analyst target of $31.20 (vs. current $8.55) implies 265% upside, but that target was set before the May equity dilution. Post-$300M raise and ~48% share dilution, the stock has corrected from its April peak ($13.39 intraday) back to $8.55 — now trading near RA Capital's $11.52 purchase price in the recent offering. The stock is not cheap on absolute terms given the cash burn and dilution, but the analyst target gap vs. current price after a 40%+ correction from highs creates a plausible range-bound or mean-reversion setup.\"\n },\n \"quality\": {\n \"roic_pct\": null,\n \"gross_margin_trend_pp_yoy\": null,\n \"net_debt_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"balance_sheet_grade\": \"A\"\n },\n \"technical\": {\n \"above_50dma\": true,\n \"above_200dma\": true,\n \"rsi_14\": 42.4,\n \"macd_recent_bullish_cross\": false,\n \"12_1_momentum_vs_sector_pct\": null\n }\n },\n \"price_context\": {\n \"last_close\": 8.55,\n \"ytd_return_pct\": 216.67,\n \"from_52w_high_pct\": -41.2\n },\n \"filings_reviewed\": [\n {\n \"form\": \"10-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-03-10\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526100135/artv-20251231.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Cash, cash equivalents and investments: $108.0M as of Dec 31 2025; funded into Q2 2027 pre-May offering\",\n \"AlloNK IND cleared by FDA in April 2023 for autoimmune diseases; Phase 1/2 basket trial ongoing across lupus nephritis, RA, SLE, Sjogren's and more\",\n \"RA Capital Management is a 10% owner and board participant (Laura Stoppel Principal on Board) via multiple funds\",\n \"GC Cell Corporation: key manufacturing/licensing partner for NK cell platform under option and license agreements from Feb 2022 with milestones\",\n \"IPO in July 2024 at $12.00/share; raised ~$108M gross at IPO\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"10-Q\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526213242/artv-20260331.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Cash and short-term investments Q1 2026 end: $86.8M vs. $108M at Dec 31 2025 — quarterly burn ~$20M consistent with historical rate\",\n \"Diego Miralles M.D. appointed President & Head of R&D (May 18 effective); Fred Aslan M.D. assumes CFO/CAO responsibilities alongside CEO role\",\n \"Thad Huston separated as CFO May 22; no dispute; separation agreement: ~3 months base salary + COBRA for up to 9 months\",\n \"AlloNK Phase 2a initial data: 71% ACR50 in refractory RA patients with >=6 months follow-up, deep B-cell depletion pattern, outpatient tolerability\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"8-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-19\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526229714/artv-20260518.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Diego Miralles offer letter details: $600K base, 45% target bonus, 232,500 options ($9.22 strike), 77,500 RSUs under 2025 Inducement Plan; severance provisions detailed\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"8-K/Underwriting Agreement\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526214711/d20969d8k.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"23,871,526 shares at $11.52 + 2,170,138 pre-funded warrants at $11.5199; gross proceeds ~$300M; closed May 11 2026\",\n \"RA Capital Healthcare Fund bought 6,510,416 shares (P) and 2,170,138 pre-funded warrants in the offering — largest single investor\"\n ]\n }\n ],\n \"options_context\": {\n \"expiries_examined\": [],\n \"iv_summary\": \"No listed options expiries available for ARTV. Illiquid single-name biotech with no tradable options chain. Cannot construct CSP or CC strategies.\",\n \"notable_skew_or_flow\": \"No UOA data; no option chain accessible. Options market infrastructure absent — limits structure recommendations to equity-only or OTC structures.\"\n },\n \"competitive_landscape\": \"Artiva competes in the B-cell depletion space against: (1) autologous CAR-T therapies from Kyverna (KYVOR-2 in RA, Phase 2), Cabaletta (CABA-501 in SLE), and驯ance/others; (2) bispecific antibodies (rituximab, ocrelizumab); (3) other NK cell platforms. AlloNK's differentiation is non-genetically modified, off-the-shelf allogeneic (no need for patient harvest/exvivo modification), tolerability profile with no CRS/ICANS in autoimmune setting, and potential outpatient/community rheumatology administration vs. CAR-T which requires inpatient BMA facility settings.\",\n \"key_risks\": [\n \"Phase 3 trial design not yet finalized; regulatory pathway hinges on FDA accepting single pivotal trial\",\n \"No revenue; ~$20M quarterly burn rate means cash runway is finite even after $300M raise\",\n \"48% share dilution from May offering creates significant overhang and price headwind\",\n \"AlloNK Phase 2a data (n=31 RA patients with >=6mo follow-up) is early-stage: small n, single-arm, not yet peer-reviewed\",\n \"Competing CAR-T programs in autoimmune disease have shown strong data; regulatory precedent for NK cell approval unclear\",\n \"No commercial partnership announced for commercialization or manufacturing at scale\",\n \"RA Capital 60%+ ownership creates potential governance/alignment risks but also ensures sponsor backing\"\n ],\n \"what_the_market_might_be_missing\": \"The market may be underweighting the Phase 2a ACR50 response signal relative to what a Phase 3 registration could represent if trial design is agreed upon. The May equity offering at $11.52 (with RA Capital as lead buyer) established a strategic reference point — current price at $8.55 represents ~26% discount to that institutional-quality anchor. EULAR 2026 data in June could be the next catalyst window, especially given the late-breaking oral presentation designation.\",\n \"anti_signals_present\": [\n \"dilution\",\n \"low_liquidity\"\n ],\n \"sources\": [\n {\n \"label\": \"10-K FY2025\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526100135/artv-20251231.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"10-Q Q1 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526213242/artv-20260331.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"8-K Leadership Changes May 19, 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526229714/artv-20260518.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"8-K Underwriting Agreement $300M Offering\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526214711/d20969d8k.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 - RA Capital Purchase of 6.5M shares at $11.52 (May 2026)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000123191926000491/xslF345X06/form4-05132026_090548.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 - Diego Miralles Inducement RSUs + Options May 18, 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1817241/000119312526229727/xslF345X06/ownership.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"News: AlloNK Phase 2a Positive Data May 8, 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/artiva-announces-positive-initial-clinical-103000112.html\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"EULAR 2026 Presentations Announced May 19, 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/artiva-biotherapeutics-announces-multiple-allonk-200500767.html\"\n }\n ],\n \"unfetched_signals\": [\n \"13f_deltas\",\n \"politician_trades\",\n \"sentiment_score\"\n ]\n}\n\nOutput ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT\ninclude ... reasoning blocks — they eat the output token\nbudget and produce truncated, unparseable decisions.", "completions": [ { "ts": "2026-05-20T03:25:43.562Z", "raw_content": "The user wants me to act as the 'Analyst' stage of a trade-ideas pipeline.\nI need to score the provided dossier based on a specific rubric and decide whether to skip or draft a trade idea.\nThe output must be strictly JSON.\n\nLet's evaluate the dossier for ARTV (Artiva Biotherapeutics, Inc.).\n\n**Scoring Rubric:**\n\n**A. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25)**\n- Insider purchases: RA Capital Management (10% owner + Director) bought $75M worth. Diego Miralles (new hire) has $0 open market purchases (inducement RSUs/options).\n- 10 pts: 3+ distinct insiders? No, only 1 distinct buyer (RA Capital). Wait, the rubric says \"3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases... totaling ≥ $500K\". Here we have 1 distinct buyer (RA Capital). So 0 pts for the base 10.\n- Wait, let's re-read carefully: \"3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\". The dossier lists only RA Capital as a buyer with code P. Diego Miralles got RSUs/options, not open market purchases. So this condition is not met. Score: 0.\n- +3 CEO/CFO? No.\n- +2 total > $5M? Yes, $75M. But the base condition wasn't met. I'll give 0 for base, maybe 0 for the rest since it requires the base. Actually, the rubric says \"10 pts if... +2 pts if total > $5M\". I'll give 0.\n- 5 pts for known concentrated 13F initiation? RA Capital is a known biotech investor, but it's an offering, not a 13F. I'll give 0.\n- 2 pts politician? No.\n- Penalty: -10 pts if material selling > buying. Selling is $444k (RSU vesting), buying is $75M. No penalty.\nScore A: 0.\n\n**B. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10)**\n- \"No listed options expiries available for ARTV. Illiquid single-name biotech with no tradable options chain.\"\nScore B: 0.\n\n**C. CATALYST (max 25)**\n- Earnings within 90 days? Next earnings Aug 2026. Last 4 quarters EPS surprise > 0%? No, all misses. (0 pts)\n- Pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone? \"FDA alignment on Phase 3 registrational trial design... initiation expected H2 2026\". Not imminent enough for 8 pts? Maybe 5 pts for recent guidance raise? \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": true. (5 pts)\n- Quantifiable sector tailwind? No.\n- Let's check the catalyst list: EULAR presentation in June 2026 (near term). FDA alignment on Phase 3.\n- I'll give 5 pts for recent guidance raise / FDA alignment. Actually, the rubric says \"8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\". I'll give 5.\nScore C: 5.\n\n**D. MISPRICING (max 15)**\n- Pre-revenue biotech. No forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, FCF yield. SOTP gap? Analyst target $31.20 vs $8.55 implies 265% upside, but post-dilution target is stale.\n- \"No traditional valuation metrics apply\".\nScore D: 0.\n\n**E. QUALITY (max 15)**\n- ROIC, gross margin, net debt/EBITDA all null.\n- Balance sheet grade A (cash runway into Q2 2027).\n- Biotech pre-revenue doesn't fit standard quality metrics well. I'll give 0.\nScore E: 0.\n\n**F. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10)**\n- Above 50DMA and 200DMA: true. (3 pts)\n- 12-1 month return positive? Not provided, but YTD is +216%. From 52w high is -41%. I'll give 0 for this specific metric.\n- RSI 14 in 40-65: 42.4. (2 pts)\n- MACD bullish cross: false. (0 pts)\nScore F: 5.\n\nTotal Score: 0 + 0 + 5 + 0 + 0 + 5 = 10.\n\n**Risk Class:**\nMarket cap not explicitly given, but price $8.55. Shares outstanding: IPO raised $108M at $12 -> 9M shares. May 2026 offering raised $300M at $11.52 -> ~26M shares. Total ~35M shares. Market cap ~$300M. This is ≤ $5B, so \"asymmetric\" risk class. Wait, biotechs are often micro/small cap. The rubric says \"asymmetric — market_cap ≤ $5B\". So it's asymmetric.\n\n**Thresholds for ASYMMETRIC:**\n< 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\n\n**Anti-Signal Gates:**\n- \"dilution\" (48% share dilution from May offering)\n- \"low_liquidity\" (options context says illiquid, but stock liquidity? Avg daily volume < $5M? Not explicitly stated, but biotechs often are thin. The anti_signals_present lists \"dilution\" and \"low_liquidity\".)\n- The prompt says: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\n- Dilution > 10% of float: 48% dilution. This is a hard gate.\n- Low liquidity: also a gate.\n\n**Edge Check:**\n- Pre-revenue biotech, high dilution, no options, weak technicals, no traditional valuation. The market is correctly pricing it as a speculative biotech. No clear asymmetric long opportunity. Scout verdict is \"range_bound_or_income\", but options are unavailable. So no trade structure fits.\n\n**Conclusion:** Skip.\n\nScore breakdown:\nsmart_money: 0\noptions_flow: 0\ncatalyst: 5\nmispricing: 0\nquality: 0\ntechnical: 5\nTotal: 10\n\nReason: Pre-revenue biotech with no tradable options chain, facing 48% dilution overhang and low liquidity; lacks the fundamental metrics and structural tools required for a publishable setup.\n\nLet's double check scoring.\nA: 0. (Only 1 insider buyer, doesn't meet 3+ threshold. Even if I gave points for RA Capital, it's not enough to pass the <60 threshold for asymmetric.)\nB: 0. (No options.)\nC: 5. (Guidance raise / FDA alignment.)\nD: 0.\nE: 0.\nF: 5. (Above DMAs, RSI 42.4.)\nTotal: 10.\n\nMatches skip criteria perfectly.\nOutput format: strictly JSON.\nI will construct the JSON carefully.\nCheck structure:\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 10,\n \"score_breakdown\": { ... },\n \"reason\": \"...\"\n}\nAll good.\nOne minor point: The rubric says for asymmetric: \"< 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\". Score is 10. Definitely skip.\nI will produce the JSON. \nWait, let's verify the \"dilution\" anti-signal gate. The prompt says \"Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\" is a gate. Here it's equity dilution from a follow-on offering (48%). It's still a strong negative signal. The prompt says \"treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply\". It applies. So skip.\nAll consistent.\nProceed. \nOutput matches requested schema exactly.\nNo extra text.\nDone. \nLet's generate. \nSelf-Correction/Refinement during thought: \nCould I give Smart Money points for RA Capital? The rubric says \"5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add\". RA Capital is a known biotech investor, but this is a secondary/offering purchase, not a 13F filing. I'll stick with 0 or maybe 2 if I stretch it, but it won't change the outcome. I'll keep it 0 to be strict.\nTechnical: 3 pts for above 50/200DMA. 2 pts for RSI 40-65. Total 5.\nCatalyst: 5 pts for guidance raise.\nTotal 10.\nReason is solid.\nOutput matches.✅\nProceeds. \nJSON generation. \n```json\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 10,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 5,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 5\n },\n \"reason\": \"Pre-revenue biotech with no tradable options chain, facing 48% dilution overhang and low liquidity; lacks the fundamental metrics and structural tools required for a publishable setup.\"\n}\n```\nCheck against schema: matches exactly.\nReady. \nOutput matches response. \nProceeds. \n(Self-Correction/Verification during generation prep)\nWait, the prompt says: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nThe anti_signals are \"dilution\" and \"low_liquidity\". I will explicitly mention the dilution gate in the reason to show I followed instructions.\nReason: \"Triggered anti-signal gates for >10% dilution (48% follow-on) and low liquidity. Additionally, lacks tradable options infrastructure and traditional valuation metrics, making a publishable structure impossible.\"\nThis is better.\nScore breakdown remains same.\nAll good.\nOutput matches. \nProceeds. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]\n\"ONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that sub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\" -> Only applies if proceeding.\n\"IF YOU SKIP — output exactly: { ... }\" -> I will output exactly that.\nDone. \nOutput Generation. \n```json\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 10,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 5,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 5\n },\n \"reason\": \"Triggered anti-signal gates for >10% dilution (48% follow-on) and low liquidity. Additionally, lacks tradable options infrastructure and traditional valuation metrics, making a publishable structure impossible.\"\n}\n```\nMatches perfectly. No extra text. Proceeds. \n(Self-Correction/Note during thought: The prompt says \"output exactly: { ... }\". I will ensure no markdown fences if possible, or just standard JSON. The prompt says \"OUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.\" I will strictly follow that.)\nDone. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n\n\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 10,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 5,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 5\n },\n \"reason\": \"Triggered anti-signal gates for >10% dilution (48% follow-on) and low liquidity. Additionally, lacks tradable options infrastructure and traditional valuation metrics, making a publishable structure impossible.\"\n}", "cleaned_content": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 10,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 5,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 5\n },\n \"reason\": \"Triggered anti-signal gates for >10% dilution (48% follow-on) and low liquidity. Additionally, lacks tradable options infrastructure and traditional valuation metrics, making a publishable structure impossible.\"\n}", "tool_calls": null, "finish_reason": "stop" } ], "tool_results": [], "final_message": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 10,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 5,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 5\n },\n \"reason\": \"Triggered anti-signal gates for >10% dilution (48% follow-on) and low liquidity. Additionally, lacks tradable options infrastructure and traditional valuation metrics, making a publishable structure impossible.\"\n}", "tool_calls_total": 0, "walltime_ms": 76562, "stop_reason": "stop", "completed_at": "2026-05-20T03:25:43.562Z" }