{ "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b", "started_at": "2026-05-15T12:02:24.148Z", "system_prompt": "You are Analyst, the thesis-judgment stage of an AI trade-ideas pipeline.\n\nScout has already gathered a JSON dossier of scoring_inputs. Your job is to\nSCORE the dossier against the methodology rubric and either draft an idea\n(if score ≥ 60) or skip.\n\nOPTION B (skip) IS THE EXPECTED DEFAULT. The pipeline publishes rarely and\nonly when something clears a high bar. Most dossiers should return\n{ \"skip\": true, \"reason\": \"...\", \"score\": }. Mediocre publishes burn\nDevil's Advocate budget and create credibility risk on the public site.\n\nLOOK AT THE FULL STRUCTURE MENU. Even when Scout says 'no asymmetric long\nopportunity exists' (verdict=range_bound_or_income), there may be a clear\nINCOME structure (covered call against the high; strangle inside an IV-\nelevated band; CSP at a downside-defended strike). Don't reflex-skip just\nbecause long_stock isn't attractive. Read the dossier looking for what\nSHAPE OF TRADE fits, not just whether long is fits.\n\nSCORING RUBRIC (sum to max 100)\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.smart_money\n • 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in\n last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\n • +3 pts if CEO is among the buyers\n • +3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\n • +2 pts if total purchases > $5M\n • 5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add (Berkshire, Pershing\n Square, Appaloosa, Greenlight, Scion, Polen, Pabrai, Tepper, etc.)\n • +3 pts if it's in the manager's top-3 positions\n • 2 pts for politician STOCK Act recent buy\n • +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\n • Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.options_flow\n • 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish\n and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\n • 3 pts: bullish IV skew (call IV > put IV) consistent with thesis\n • 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30 (sustained call-side flow)\n • 1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\n • Penalty: −5 pts if whale_put_blocks_otm ≥ 2 and bias is bearish\n without a hedging explanation\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.catalyst\n • 10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\n • 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\n • 5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\n • 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind (named hyperscaler capex flowing\n to this name in $)\n Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.mispricing\n • 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median (with non-deteriorating\n earnings)\n • 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median\n • 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7% with stable FCF\n • 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25% (replaces one of the above)\n Cap at 15.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.quality\n • 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15% (or trending there)\n • 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY\n • 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.technical\n • 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\n • 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector\n • 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\n • 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\n\nRISK CLASS — choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field:\n \"core\" — market_cap > $5B. Standard methodology sizing.\n \"asymmetric\" — market_cap ≤ $5B (small-cap moonshot). 90%+ of these\n bets lose money or go to zero; the few that work pay\n for the rest. Position sizing is far more conservative\n to fit the variance.\n\nTHRESHOLDS — depend on risk_class\n\n CORE risk_class:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 4-5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 2.5-3.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 1.5-2.0%\n 50-59 Skip unless catalyst <30d + insider cluster\n < 50 Skip\n\n ASYMMETRIC risk_class — strict sizing:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 1.5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 1.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 0.5%\n < 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\n Structure must be long_stock (options structures are wrong shape for\n moonshots; Compliance enforces this in code).\n\nANTI-SIGNAL GATES (any one of these forces skip regardless of score):\n • Going-concern audit qualification\n • Pending material litigation (DOJ/SEC enforcement, class action with merit)\n • Customer concentration > 30%\n • Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\n • Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\n • Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\n • Pump-and-dump signals (sudden volume + chat-room mentions)\n\nIf scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a\ngate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\n\nEDGE CHECK (philosophical, not numeric)\n\nAfter scoring, ask: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already\nknow?\" If the answer is generic (it's cheap, AI is a tailwind, technicals\nlook great), the score is misleading — skip even if numerical score is 65.\nReal edge means a specific data point or interpretation the market missed.\n\nSCOUT VERDICT → STRUCTURE GUIDANCE\n\nRead scoring_inputs and Scout's verdict together. The verdict tells you\nWHICH structures Scout thinks are in scope for this name:\n\n verdict='promising' → long_stock | csp (for asymmetric long)\n verdict='range_bound_or_income' → cc | strangle | csp on pullback\n (DON'T default to long_stock — Scout\n already said this isn't an asymmetric\n long. Look at IV elevated → strangle;\n stock at 52w high, fundamentals healthy\n → cc against implicit long; pullback\n thesis with cash → csp)\n verdict='bearish_setup' → naked_call (rarely; respect ceiling)\n\nIf Scout supplied structure_hints[], they're a starting point. You can\noverride with reasoning, but if you go OUTSIDE the verdict's natural set,\nexplain why in thesis_long.\n\nSTRUCTURE SELECTION — full menu:\n\n long_stock — multi-quarter asymmetric thesis, IV not elevated, want\n full upside participation\n csp — bullish, want to own at strike, IV elevated, ann yield ≥15%\n cc — range-bound or mildly bullish, IV elevated, on top of long\n stock leg, if-called return ≥15% ann\n strangle — RANGE-BOUND thesis with elevated IV. Sell OTM call + OTM\n put. Need: comfortable owning at put_strike, no parabolic\n upside expectation. Ann yield ≥12%. Compute and emit\n breakeven_high (call_strike + total_premium) and\n breakeven_low (put_strike - total_premium).\n naked_put — same setup as CSP but using margin. ~2x yield, margin call\n risk. Only for margin-equipped accounts. Note explicitly.\n naked_call — bearish setup with elevated IV. UNCAPPED loss if rally.\n Confidence ceiling 4 (Compliance enforces). Requires\n explicit upside-shock thesis + defense plan in conditions.\n\nMatch the structure to the thesis shape — don't reach for naked options\njust because the premium is fatter. Most candidates are best as long_stock\nor CSP. Strangles only when you have a clear range thesis backed by IV\nand fundamentals.\n\nIF YOU SKIP — output exactly:\n {\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n }\n\nIF YOU PROCEED — output a draft idea matching this schema (this is the same\nschema the published site renders from):\n\n{\n \"skip\": false,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"draft\": {\n \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-keyphrase\",\n \"symbol\": \"TICKER\",\n \"company\": \"Full name\",\n \"sector\": \"semis-ai-infra\" | \"small-cap-asymmetric\",\n \"risk_class\": \"core\" | \"asymmetric\",\n \"headline\": \"Punchy 1-line — the news angle on the thesis\",\n \"thesis_short\": \"1 sentence — why this trade exists.\",\n \"thesis_long\": [\n \"Opening paragraph framing the setup.\",\n \"## Catalyst\",\n \"Detailed catalyst narrative.\",\n \"## Why the market is mispricing this\",\n \"Edge explanation, citing dossier facts.\",\n \"## Numbers\",\n \"- Bullet 1 with concrete numbers from the dossier\",\n \"- Bullet 2\",\n \"## Risk\",\n \"Honest description of what could go wrong.\"\n ],\n \"structure\": {\n \"type\": \"long_stock\" | \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\" | \"naked_put\" | \"naked_call\",\n \"long_stock\": { \"entry_zone_low\": , \"entry_zone_high\": , \"shares_per_unit\": 100 },\n \"csp\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"if_assigned_basis\": },\n \"cc\": { \"underlying_basis\": , \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"if_called_return_pct\": },\n \"strangle\": { \"call_strike\": , \"put_strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_premium_target\": , \"put_premium_target\": , \"total_premium_target\": , \"breakeven_high\": , \"breakeven_low\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_note\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_put\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_per_contract\": , \"margin_estimate_per_contract\": , \"warning\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_call\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss\": \"UNLIMITED\", \"warning\": \"...\" }\n },\n \"entry\": {\n \"price_at_idea\": ,\n \"conditions\": \"How/when to enter — e.g., 'Open starter on pullback to MA50.'\"\n },\n \"exit\": {\n \"target_price\": ,\n \"time_horizon_months\": ,\n \"stop_conditions\": \"Specific signal(s) that trigger a close.\"\n },\n \"risk\": {\n \"bear_case\": \"Honest, specific bear case (not generic 'market could fall').\",\n \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Specific event/data that invalidates the call.\",\n \"position_size_pct\": <0.5 to 5.0, conviction-weighted>\n },\n \"sources\": [\n { \"label\": \"...\", \"url\": \"...\" }\n ],\n \"confidence\": <1-5, conservative>,\n \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\",\n \"devils_advocate_verdict\": null\n }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that\nsub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\n\nALL NUMBERS must be drawn from the dossier or computable from it. Do not\ninvent prices, strikes, premiums.\n\nOUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.", "user_prompt": "Here is the dossier from Scout. Decide: skip or draft.\n\n\nLESSONS LEARNED: none yet.\n\nDOSSIER:\n{\n \"symbol\": \"RGTI\",\n \"company\": \"Rigetti Computing, Inc.\",\n \"investigation_summary\": \"Rigetti is a pre-profit pure-play quantum computing company trading at an $6.4B market cap with only ~$10M TTM revenue (down 34% YoY). The stock has collapsed ~66% from its October 2025 all-time high of ~$58 to current $19, driven by sector rotation out of speculative names and skepticism over near-term quantum monetization. Q1 FY2026 showed strong sequential revenue acceleration ($4.4M vs $1.47M YoY) but the stock fell on the print because forward guidance implied slowing growth. The company has ~$569M in cash (massive relative to burn), no debt, and recently launched its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system — but the fundamental disconnect between valuation ($6B cap vs $7-10M revenue) and speculative narrative is extreme. No insider open-market purchases were detected in the past 90 days; all recent Form 4s relate to RSU vesting/exercises, not directional bets by insiders.\",\n \"verdict\": \"bearish_setup\",\n \"confidence_in_data\": 4,\n \"structure_hints\": [\n \"naked_call\",\n \"strangle\"\n ],\n \"business_snapshot\": \"Rigetti Computing builds and operates superconducting quantum computers. It offers QPUs (9-qubit through 108-qubit systems under the Cepheus and Novera brands) via its proprietary Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform, as well as through Amazon Braket. The company owns Fab-1, an in-house wafer fabrication facility dedicated to quantum processor prototyping — giving it a vertically integrated supply chain uncommon among peers. Revenue derives from cloud access fees (QCaaS), collaborative research contracts with commercial and government entities (DARPA, DOE, Air Force Research Lab, India's C-DAC), and sales of physical QPU systems. In February 2025 Rigetti signed a $250M/5-year collaboration agreement with Quanta Computer Inc. for manufacturing components and quantum computing development. January 2026 brought an $8.4M purchase order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit system to be delivered H2 2026. The company operates at significant operating losses (~-$26M in Q1 FY2026) but maintains ~$569M in cash against minimal debt, giving it runway of several years without needing additional capital.\",\n \"scoring_inputs\": {\n \"smart_money\": {\n \"insider_open_market_purchases_90d\": [],\n \"insider_open_market_total_usd_90d\": 0,\n \"distinct_insider_buyers_90d\": 0,\n \"ceo_buy_present\": false,\n \"cfo_buy_present\": false,\n \"material_insider_selling_90d_usd\": 0,\n \"notable_13f_holders\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ],\n \"politician_recent_buys\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ]\n },\n \"catalyst\": {\n \"next_earnings_date\": \"2026-08-11\",\n \"recent_eps_surprise_pattern\": \"Q1 2026 EPS -$0.04 actual vs -$0.043 estimate (beat); Q4 2025 EPS -$0.03 actual vs -$0.033 estimate (beat); trend of small positive beats.\",\n \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": false,\n \"named_catalysts\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"earnings\",\n \"description\": \"Q1 FY2026 earnings reported May 11, 2026: revenue $4.4M (+199% YoY), basic EPS +$0.10. Stock fell despite beat — forward guidance implied slowing growth trajectory.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926058635/rgti-20260511x8k.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bearish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"product\",\n \"description\": \"General availability of Cepheus-1-108Q announced April 7, 2026 — the industry's largest multi-chip quantum computer based on twelve 9-qubit chiplets. Achieved 99.0% median two-qubit gate fidelity and ~60ns gate speed via Amazon Braket.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-04-07\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926040377/tm2611278d1_8k.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"contract\",\n \"description\": \"$8.4M purchase order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) for a 108-qubit quantum computer — installed on-premises at C-DAC Bengaluru, expected H2 2026 deployment.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-01-09\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926002328/tm262713d1_8k.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"earnings\",\n \"description\": \"Q4 2025 / FY2025 results: FY2025 revenue $7.09M (down 34% YoY). The combination of massive market cap ($6B+) against $7M annual declining revenue and ongoing losses created extreme valuation tension.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-03-04\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926023454/rgti-20251231x10k.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bearish\"\n }\n ]\n },\n \"mispricing\": {\n \"forward_pe\": -94.77,\n \"sector_median_forward_pe\": null,\n \"ev_to_ebitda\": -74.9,\n \"sector_median_ev_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"fcf_yield_pct\": null,\n \"narrative\": \"RGTI carries an absurd $6.4B market cap against ~$10M TTM revenue (EV/revenue 598x), down from $15B at peak. The stock has collapsed -66% from ATH but remains dramatically overvalued relative to any conventional metric — the entire value is narrative-driven quantum computing premium with no earnings or clear path to profitability in sight.\"\n },\n \"quality\": {\n \"roic_pct\": null,\n \"gross_margin_trend_pp_yoy\": null,\n \"net_debt_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"balance_sheet_grade\": \"A\"\n },\n \"technical\": {\n \"above_50dma\": true,\n \"above_200dma\": null,\n \"rsi_14\": 56.5,\n \"macd_recent_bullish_cross\": true,\n \"12_1_momentum_vs_sector_pct\": null\n }\n },\n \"price_context\": {\n \"last_close\": 19.27,\n \"ytd_return_pct\": 27.62,\n \"from_52w_high_pct\": -66.9\n },\n \"filings_reviewed\": [\n {\n \"form\": \"10-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-03-04\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926023454/rgti-20251231x10k.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"FY2025 revenue $7.09M, down 34% YoY from $10.8M in FY2024; company has never been profitable.\",\n \"~569M cash and short-term investments against minimal debt; runway of several years without capital raises.\",\n \"Customer concentration risk: significant revenue from government entities; C-DAC India deal worth $8.4M for 108-qubit system.\",\n \"Quanta Computer collaboration: parties agreed to invest at least $250M each over 5 years in quantum computing.\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"10-Q\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926058641/rgti-20260331x10q.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Q1 FY2026 revenue $4.4M, up 199% YoY from $1.47M — sequential acceleration significant.\",\n \"Operating loss -$25.95M; net income +$33.1M entirely due to non-cash derivative warrant liability fair value changes (+$53.7M gain).\",\n \"Diluted EPS was negative (-$0.06) because accounting net income doesn't reflect operational reality.\",\n \"Cash and AFS investments totaled $569M at Q1 end vs operating cash burn of ~$16M/qtr.\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"8-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926058635/rgti-20260511x8k.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Q1 2026 earnings press release: revenue beat but stock fell post-print due to forward guidance concerns.\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"8-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-04-17\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926045994/tm2612288d1_8k.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Sublease for ~12,543 sq ft of office/lab space at 740 Heinz Ave, Berkeley — expansion signal but minor in context.\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"8-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-04-07\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926040377/tm2611278d1_8k.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Cepheus-1-108Q general availability: 99.1% median two-qubit gate fidelity, ~60ns gate speed on Amazon Braket.\"\n ]\n }\n ],\n \"options_context\": {\n \"expiries_examined\": [\n \"2026-05-15\",\n \"2026-06-18\"\n ],\n \"iv_summary\": \"IV likely elevated given high-beta quantum speculative name; specific IV not returned in aggregate — need options_chain for ATM strikes.\",\n \"notable_skew_or_flow\": \"UOA data shows whale call blocks at $19 and $20 strikes (near/at-money); net dollar bias +$417K bullish. However, this reflects directional speculation from retail/momentum traders, not smart money conviction. Top open interest: $20 call (10,005 OI), $20 put (9,209 OI) — stock pinned near $20 is a known phenomenon post-squeeze.\"\n },\n \"competitive_landscape\": \"Pure-play superconducting quantum computing with vertical integration (fab-in-house). Competitors include IONQ (ion trap modality, ~$21B market cap, AQ 64 hardware milestone path), D-Wave Quantum (quantum annealing focus, revenue decline noted), and RGTI's primary differentiator is multi-chip chiplet modular architecture enabling faster gate speeds (~50-60ns vs competitors) but at a much smaller scale. Amazon Braket and AWS partnerships provide cloud distribution. Quanta Computer collaboration adds manufacturing scalability for non-QPU components.\",\n \"key_risks\": [\n \"Extreme valuation disconnect: $6B market cap vs ~$10M declining revenue — any negative catalyst sends stock sharply lower.\",\n \"No profits, massive cash burn (~$16M/quarter operating cash outflow) — survival is not in question but path to profitability is unclear.\",\n \"Customer concentration and government dependency risk; C-DAC India deal ($8.4M) helps diversify geographically.\",\n \"Warrant overhang: RGTIW warrants exercisable at $11.50 create known supply of dilution if stock rises above that level.\",\n \"Sector sentiment risk: quantum computing stocks have sold off sharply from 2025 peaks as AI hype has rotated away from speculative deep-tech names.\"\n ],\n \"what_the_market_might_be_missing\": \"Nothing material — the market appears to be correctly pricing a company with no profits and declining revenue at an absurd multiple. The -66% collapse from ATH is rational given the fundamental disconnect. Any bullish thesis requires believing in a quantum advantage timeline of 3-5 years that justifies $6B valuation today, which is speculation not investing.\",\n \"anti_signals_present\": [\n \"dilution\",\n \"accounting\"\n ],\n \"sources\": [\n {\n \"label\": \"10-K FY2025\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926023454/rgti-20251231x10k.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"10-Q Q1 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926058641/rgti-20260331x10q.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"8-K Q1 Earnings May 11 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926058635/rgti-20260511x8k.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"8-K Cepheus-1-108Q April 7 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926040377/tm2611278d1_8k.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"8-K Sublease Agreement April 17 2026\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838359/000110465926045994/tm2612288d1_8k.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 Insider Transactions (aggregate)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001838359&type=4&owner=include&count=25\"\n }\n ],\n \"unfetched_signals\": [\n \"13f_deltas\",\n \"politician_trades\",\n \"sentiment_score\"\n ]\n}\n\nOutput ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT\ninclude ... reasoning blocks — they eat the output token\nbudget and produce truncated, unparseable decisions.", "completions": [ { "ts": "2026-05-15T12:02:57.536Z", "raw_content": "The dossier is for RGTI (Rigetti Computing, Inc.).\nMarket cap: ~$6.4B. Risk class: core (> $5B).\nVerdict: bearish_setup.\nScout hints: naked_call, strangle.\nAnti-signal gates present: \"dilution\", \"accounting\".\nLet's check the anti-signal gates:\n- \"dilution\": Warrant overhang: RGTIW warrants exercisable at $11.50 create known supply of dilution if stock rises above that level. (Not >10% of float explicitly stated, but warrants are a known dilution risk. The prompt says \"Convertble/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\". I'll note it but might not be a hard gate unless >10%.)\n- \"accounting\": \"net income +$33.1M entirely due to non-cash derivative warrant liability fair value changes (+$53.7M gain)... Diluted EPS was negative (-$0.06) because accounting net income doesn't reflect operational reality.\" This is an accounting irregularity/distortion. The prompt says \"Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\" as a gate. This is more of a GAAP vs non-GAAP distortion, but warrants as a gate might apply. Let's look closely at the prompt: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nAnti-signal gates present: [\"dilution\", \"accounting\"]. I will treat these as gates that likely trigger a skip, or at least heavily penalize.\nActually, the prompt says: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\" I can articulate that the warrant dilution is fixed at $11.50 strike and is a known feature, not a >10% float overhang, and the accounting is standard GAAP treatment for warrants, not an irregularity. But given the explicit \"accounting\" tag, it's safer to skip or heavily discount.\nAlso, the dossier says: \"No insider open-market purchases were detected... all recent Form 4s relate to RSU vesting/exercises\".\nSmart money: 0 pts.\nOptions flow: UOA shows whale call blocks at $19/$20, net bullish +$417K, but retail/momentum. IV elevated. Maybe 3 pts for IV skew/flow? But verdict is bearish_setup.\nCatalyst: Next earnings 2026-08-11. Not within 90 days of current date (dossier says Q1 FY2026 reported May 11, 2026. So current date is around May 14, 2026. Next earnings Aug 11 is ~90 days out. 10 pts? But guidance implied slowing growth. I'll give 0-5.\nMispricing: Forward PE negative, EV/EBITDA negative. FCF yield null. 0 pts.\nQuality: ROIC null, gross margin null, net debt null. 0 pts.\nTechnical: Above 50DMA, RSI 56.5, MACD bullish cross. 3+2+1 = 6 pts.\nTotal score will be very low. < 20.\nRisk class: core (> $5B).\nThresholds for core: < 50 Skip.\nAnti-signal gates present.\nVerdict: bearish_setup.\nEdge check: \"Nothing material — the market appears to be correctly pricing a company with no profits and declining revenue at an absurd multiple.\"\nConclusion: Skip.\n\nLet's calculate score breakdown carefully:\nSmart money: 0\nOptions flow: 2 (maybe 3 for IV skew, but let's say 2)\nCatalyst: 0 (next earnings > 60 days out, guidance bearish)\nMispricing: 0\nQuality: 0\nTechnical: 6 (above 50DMA: 3, MACD cross: 1, RSI 40-65: 2) -> Actually RSI is 56.5. So 2 pts. Total 6.\nTotal: ~8.\nSkip reason: Extreme valuation disconnect, negative earnings, no insider buying, and active anti-signal gates (warrant dilution and accounting distortions) make this a speculative trap rather than a tradable setup. The market's bearish pricing is justified.\n\nI will output the skip JSON.\nCheck structure:\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 8,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 2,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 6\n },\n \"reason\": \"Extreme valuation disconnect ($6.4B cap vs ~$10M revenue), negative earnings, and active anti-signal gates (warrant dilution and accounting distortions) render this a speculative trap rather than a tradable setup. The market's bearish pricing is justified by deteriorating fundamentals and lack of smart-money conviction.\"\n}\nWait, let's verify technical scoring:\n- above 50DMA: 3 pts\n- above 200DMA: null -> 0\n- RSI 14 in 40-65: 2 pts (56.5 fits)\n- MACD bullish cross in last 30 days: 1 pt\n- 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector: null -> 0\nTotal technical: 6. Correct.\nOptions flow: 2 pts (bullish IV skew / net dollar bias, but weak).\nTotal: 8.\nMatches skip criteria.\nI will produce the JSON.\nOne detail: The prompt says \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\" I will mention that in the reason.\nAll good.\nOutput matches schema.\nProceed. \nLet's double check the exact format required.\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": ,\n \"score_breakdown\": { ... },\n \"reason\": \"...\"\n}\nYes.\nI will generate it now. \nSelf-Correction/Refinement during thought: \nCheck technical scoring again: \"3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\" -> It says above *both*. Here only above 50DMA is true. So maybe 0 for that rule. But the rubric says \"3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\". I'll give 0 for that specific bullet. \n\"2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\" -> 2 pts.\n\"1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\" -> 1 pt.\nTotal technical: 3.\nScore: ~5.\nI'll stick with 8 or 5. It doesn't matter, it's well below 50. I'll just put 6 for technical as a generous read, or 3. I'll use 3.\nScore: 5.\nReason covers the gates and fundamentals.\nReady. \nOutput matches exactly. \nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> JSON. \nNote: I will ensure strict JSON formatting. No markdown. \nAll constraints met. \nDone. \n```json\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 5,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 2,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Extreme valuation disconnect ($6.4B cap vs ~$10M revenue), negative earnings, and active anti-signal gates (warrant dilution and accounting distortions) render this a speculative trap rather than a tradable setup. The market's bearish pricing is justified by deteriorating fundamentals and lack of smart-money conviction.\"\n}\n```\nWait, the prompt says \"OUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.\" I will remove the markdown fences.\nCheck technical scoring rule: \"3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\". Since only 50DMA is true, I get 0 for that. RSI 2 pts. MACD 1 pt. Total 3. Correct.\nOptions flow: 2 pts for net dollar bias > 30% or IV skew. I'll give 2.\nTotal 5.\nAll good.\nProceeds. \nOutput matches request. \nDone. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]\n\"OUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.\"\nI will output raw JSON.\nReady. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n\n\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 5,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 2,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Extreme valuation disconnect ($6.4B cap vs ~$10M revenue), negative earnings, and active anti-signal gates (warrant dilution and accounting distortions) render this a speculative trap rather than a tradable setup. The market's bearish pricing is justified by deteriorating fundamentals and lack of smart-money conviction.\"\n}", "cleaned_content": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 5,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 2,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Extreme valuation disconnect ($6.4B cap vs ~$10M revenue), negative earnings, and active anti-signal gates (warrant dilution and accounting distortions) render this a speculative trap rather than a tradable setup. The market's bearish pricing is justified by deteriorating fundamentals and lack of smart-money conviction.\"\n}", "tool_calls": null, "finish_reason": "stop" } ], "tool_results": [], "final_message": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 5,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 2,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 0,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Extreme valuation disconnect ($6.4B cap vs ~$10M revenue), negative earnings, and active anti-signal gates (warrant dilution and accounting distortions) render this a speculative trap rather than a tradable setup. The market's bearish pricing is justified by deteriorating fundamentals and lack of smart-money conviction.\"\n}", "tool_calls_total": 0, "walltime_ms": 33388, "stop_reason": "stop", "completed_at": "2026-05-15T12:02:57.536Z" }