{ "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b", "started_at": "2026-05-15T06:13:53.866Z", "system_prompt": "You are Analyst, the thesis-judgment stage of an AI trade-ideas pipeline.\n\nScout has already gathered a JSON dossier of scoring_inputs. Your job is to\nSCORE the dossier against the methodology rubric and either draft an idea\n(if score ≥ 60) or skip.\n\nOPTION B (skip) IS THE EXPECTED DEFAULT. The pipeline publishes rarely and\nonly when something clears a high bar. Most dossiers should return\n{ \"skip\": true, \"reason\": \"...\", \"score\": }. Mediocre publishes burn\nDevil's Advocate budget and create credibility risk on the public site.\n\nLOOK AT THE FULL STRUCTURE MENU. Even when Scout says 'no asymmetric long\nopportunity exists' (verdict=range_bound_or_income), there may be a clear\nINCOME structure (covered call against the high; strangle inside an IV-\nelevated band; CSP at a downside-defended strike). Don't reflex-skip just\nbecause long_stock isn't attractive. Read the dossier looking for what\nSHAPE OF TRADE fits, not just whether long is fits.\n\nSCORING RUBRIC (sum to max 100)\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.smart_money\n • 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in\n last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\n • +3 pts if CEO is among the buyers\n • +3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\n • +2 pts if total purchases > $5M\n • 5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add (Berkshire, Pershing\n Square, Appaloosa, Greenlight, Scion, Polen, Pabrai, Tepper, etc.)\n • +3 pts if it's in the manager's top-3 positions\n • 2 pts for politician STOCK Act recent buy\n • +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\n • Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.options_flow\n • 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish\n and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\n • 3 pts: bullish IV skew (call IV > put IV) consistent with thesis\n • 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30 (sustained call-side flow)\n • 1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\n • Penalty: −5 pts if whale_put_blocks_otm ≥ 2 and bias is bearish\n without a hedging explanation\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.catalyst\n • 10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\n • 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\n • 5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\n • 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind (named hyperscaler capex flowing\n to this name in $)\n Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.mispricing\n • 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median (with non-deteriorating\n earnings)\n • 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median\n • 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7% with stable FCF\n • 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25% (replaces one of the above)\n Cap at 15.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.quality\n • 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15% (or trending there)\n • 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY\n • 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.technical\n • 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\n • 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector\n • 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\n • 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\n\nRISK CLASS — choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field:\n \"core\" — market_cap > $5B. Standard methodology sizing.\n \"asymmetric\" — market_cap ≤ $5B (small-cap moonshot). 90%+ of these\n bets lose money or go to zero; the few that work pay\n for the rest. Position sizing is far more conservative\n to fit the variance.\n\nTHRESHOLDS — depend on risk_class\n\n CORE risk_class:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 4-5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 2.5-3.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 1.5-2.0%\n 50-59 Skip unless catalyst <30d + insider cluster\n < 50 Skip\n\n ASYMMETRIC risk_class — strict sizing:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 1.5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 1.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 0.5%\n < 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\n Structure must be long_stock (options structures are wrong shape for\n moonshots; Compliance enforces this in code).\n\nANTI-SIGNAL GATES (any one of these forces skip regardless of score):\n • Going-concern audit qualification\n • Pending material litigation (DOJ/SEC enforcement, class action with merit)\n • Customer concentration > 30%\n • Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\n • Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\n • Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\n • Pump-and-dump signals (sudden volume + chat-room mentions)\n\nIf scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a\ngate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\n\nEDGE CHECK (philosophical, not numeric)\n\nAfter scoring, ask: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already\nknow?\" If the answer is generic (it's cheap, AI is a tailwind, technicals\nlook great), the score is misleading — skip even if numerical score is 65.\nReal edge means a specific data point or interpretation the market missed.\n\nSCOUT VERDICT → STRUCTURE GUIDANCE\n\nRead scoring_inputs and Scout's verdict together. The verdict tells you\nWHICH structures Scout thinks are in scope for this name:\n\n verdict='promising' → long_stock | csp (for asymmetric long)\n verdict='range_bound_or_income' → cc | strangle | csp on pullback\n (DON'T default to long_stock — Scout\n already said this isn't an asymmetric\n long. Look at IV elevated → strangle;\n stock at 52w high, fundamentals healthy\n → cc against implicit long; pullback\n thesis with cash → csp)\n verdict='bearish_setup' → naked_call (rarely; respect ceiling)\n\nIf Scout supplied structure_hints[], they're a starting point. You can\noverride with reasoning, but if you go OUTSIDE the verdict's natural set,\nexplain why in thesis_long.\n\nSTRUCTURE SELECTION — full menu:\n\n long_stock — multi-quarter asymmetric thesis, IV not elevated, want\n full upside participation\n csp — bullish, want to own at strike, IV elevated, ann yield ≥15%\n cc — range-bound or mildly bullish, IV elevated, on top of long\n stock leg, if-called return ≥15% ann\n strangle — RANGE-BOUND thesis with elevated IV. Sell OTM call + OTM\n put. Need: comfortable owning at put_strike, no parabolic\n upside expectation. Ann yield ≥12%. Compute and emit\n breakeven_high (call_strike + total_premium) and\n breakeven_low (put_strike - total_premium).\n naked_put — same setup as CSP but using margin. ~2x yield, margin call\n risk. Only for margin-equipped accounts. Note explicitly.\n naked_call — bearish setup with elevated IV. UNCAPPED loss if rally.\n Confidence ceiling 4 (Compliance enforces). Requires\n explicit upside-shock thesis + defense plan in conditions.\n\nMatch the structure to the thesis shape — don't reach for naked options\njust because the premium is fatter. Most candidates are best as long_stock\nor CSP. Strangles only when you have a clear range thesis backed by IV\nand fundamentals.\n\nIF YOU SKIP — output exactly:\n {\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n }\n\nIF YOU PROCEED — output a draft idea matching this schema (this is the same\nschema the published site renders from):\n\n{\n \"skip\": false,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"draft\": {\n \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-keyphrase\",\n \"symbol\": \"TICKER\",\n \"company\": \"Full name\",\n \"sector\": \"semis-ai-infra\" | \"small-cap-asymmetric\",\n \"risk_class\": \"core\" | \"asymmetric\",\n \"headline\": \"Punchy 1-line — the news angle on the thesis\",\n \"thesis_short\": \"1 sentence — why this trade exists.\",\n \"thesis_long\": [\n \"Opening paragraph framing the setup.\",\n \"## Catalyst\",\n \"Detailed catalyst narrative.\",\n \"## Why the market is mispricing this\",\n \"Edge explanation, citing dossier facts.\",\n \"## Numbers\",\n \"- Bullet 1 with concrete numbers from the dossier\",\n \"- Bullet 2\",\n \"## Risk\",\n \"Honest description of what could go wrong.\"\n ],\n \"structure\": {\n \"type\": \"long_stock\" | \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\" | \"naked_put\" | \"naked_call\",\n \"long_stock\": { \"entry_zone_low\": , \"entry_zone_high\": , \"shares_per_unit\": 100 },\n \"csp\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"if_assigned_basis\": },\n \"cc\": { \"underlying_basis\": , \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"if_called_return_pct\": },\n \"strangle\": { \"call_strike\": , \"put_strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_premium_target\": , \"put_premium_target\": , \"total_premium_target\": , \"breakeven_high\": , \"breakeven_low\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_note\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_put\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_per_contract\": , \"margin_estimate_per_contract\": , \"warning\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_call\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss\": \"UNLIMITED\", \"warning\": \"...\" }\n },\n \"entry\": {\n \"price_at_idea\": ,\n \"conditions\": \"How/when to enter — e.g., 'Open starter on pullback to MA50.'\"\n },\n \"exit\": {\n \"target_price\": ,\n \"time_horizon_months\": ,\n \"stop_conditions\": \"Specific signal(s) that trigger a close.\"\n },\n \"risk\": {\n \"bear_case\": \"Honest, specific bear case (not generic 'market could fall').\",\n \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Specific event/data that invalidates the call.\",\n \"position_size_pct\": <0.5 to 5.0, conviction-weighted>\n },\n \"sources\": [\n { \"label\": \"...\", \"url\": \"...\" }\n ],\n \"confidence\": <1-5, conservative>,\n \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\",\n \"devils_advocate_verdict\": null\n }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that\nsub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\n\nALL NUMBERS must be drawn from the dossier or computable from it. Do not\ninvent prices, strikes, premiums.\n\nOUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.", "user_prompt": "Here is the dossier from Scout. Decide: skip or draft.\n\n\nLESSONS LEARNED: none yet.\n\nDOSSIER:\n{\n \"symbol\": \"IBP\",\n \"company\": \"Installed Building Products, Inc.\",\n \"investigation_summary\": \"IBP just crashed ~25% in a week (May 7-14) after a Q1 EPS miss ($1.79 vs $1.96 estimate) driven by weather disruptions and weak new residential volumes. Multiple C-suite insiders purchased stock open-market on May 11 at prices ranging $203-$217 — the CFO (Miller) made 13 separate buys totaling ~2,420 shares (~$500K), while the COO and two other officers/directors bought smaller amounts. The cluster is real but comes with a structural problem: these insider purchases are all ABOVE current price ($217.31 as of May 14 close), meaning every single insider buyer is underwater on their recent buys. This is not conviction buying — it's opportunistic purchasing by people who may have felt the selloff was overdone, but who haven't yet seen relief. The forward P/E of ~18.9x and EV/EBITDA of ~13.4x are reasonable vs. residential construction peers (median ~20x fwd P/E), so mild undervaluation exists on valuation metrics alone, but there is no named catalyst forcing re-rating within the 3-12 month window — only Q2 earnings in August as a general re-rating opportunity. The macro backdrop for new residential construction remains hostile (low permits, high mortgage rates). Technicals are deeply bearish: below both MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish cross 10 days ago.\",\n \"verdict\": \"range_bound_or_income\",\n \"confidence_in_data\": 5,\n \"structure_hints\": [\n \"csp\",\n \"strangle\"\n ],\n \"business_snapshot\": \"Installed Building Products is the second-largest insulation installer in the US by revenue, serving single-family builders (65%+ of revenue), repair/remodel customers (~20%), and commercial contractors. The company operates ~200 branch locations across 46 states with a highly fragmented customer base — no individual builder exceeds mid-single-digit share of total revenue. It generates roughly $3B in annual revenue and ~$317M in FCF at cycle-normal margins, though Q1 2026 showed margin compression from input cost inflation and weather-driven volume weakness. The company runs an aggressive acquisition rollup strategy (ThermoTech acquired Feb 2026; Carolina Precision Fibers acquired Sept 2025), adding complementary products like waterproofing, garage doors, shower enclosures to cross-sell into its builder customer base. Net debt is ~$606M against $474M cash; the balance sheet is healthy but levered (Debt/EBITDA ~2x).\",\n \"scoring_inputs\": {\n \"smart_money\": {\n \"insider_open_market_purchases_90d\": [\n {\n \"insider\": \"Michael T. Miller\",\n \"role\": \"Executive VP & CFO\",\n \"amount_usd\": 500000,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000162828026034263/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778626158.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"Brad A. Wheeler\",\n \"role\": \"Chief Operating Officer\",\n \"amount_usd\": 149742,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000162828026034261/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778626092.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"Lawrence A. Hilsheimer\",\n \"role\": \"Director\",\n \"amount_usd\": 97952,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000162828026034268/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778626253.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"Jason R. Niswonger\",\n \"role\": \"Chief Admin & Sustainability Officer\",\n \"amount_usd\": 97734,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000162828026034265/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778626210.xml\"\n }\n ],\n \"insider_open_market_total_usd_90d\": 845428,\n \"distinct_insider_buyers_90d\": 4,\n \"ceo_buy_present\": false,\n \"cfo_buy_present\": true,\n \"material_insider_selling_90d_usd\": 0,\n \"notable_13f_holders\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ],\n \"politician_recent_buys\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ]\n },\n \"catalyst\": {\n \"next_earnings_date\": \"2026-08-06\",\n \"recent_eps_surprise_pattern\": \"Beat Q3 2024 (+22.9%), Q4 2024 (+16%), Q1 2025 (+18%) then MISSED Q1 2026 (-8.7%). Consecutive beats ended with the May 7 miss.\",\n \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": false,\n \"named_catalysts\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"earnings\",\n \"description\": \"Q2 FY2026 earnings — August 6, 2026. Opportunity to restore narrative if volumes stabilize or management raises guidance for back-half recovery.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-08-06\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/installed-building-products-reports-first-113000539.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"ambiguous\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"sector\",\n \"description\": \"Potential residential construction inflection — single-family housing permits recently at multi-year lows. Any stabilization in builder sentiment (NAHB index) would be a broad tailwind for IBP.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-06 to 2026-09\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/look-installed-building-products-ibp-011726074.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"product\",\n \"description\": \"ThermoTech Mechanical Insulation acquisition (Feb 2026) adds mechanical insulation capabilities; Carolina Precision Fibers (Sept 2025) expands custom fabrications — potential to show synergy contribution in upcoming quarters.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"Ongoing through Q2-Q3 2026\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000158090526000028/ibp-20260331.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n }\n ]\n },\n \"mispricing\": {\n \"forward_pe\": 18.95,\n \"sector_median_forward_pe\": 22,\n \"ev_to_ebitda\": 13.43,\n \"sector_median_ev_to_ebitda\": 15.5,\n \"fcf_yield_pct\": 5.42,\n \"sotp_gap_pct\": null,\n \"narrative\": \"Mild undervaluation: at ~19x forward earnings against a residential building products peer median of ~22x, IBP trades at a discount despite strong historical ROIC (38%) and consistent cash generation. However, the discount is justifiably elevated given Q1 2026 margin compression, weak housing starts data, and near-term EPS growth headwinds (-12.5% YoY expected for FY26). FCF yield of ~5.4% is attractive relative to dividend yield.\"\n },\n \"quality\": {\n \"roic_pct\": 38.36,\n \"gross_margin_trend_pp_yoy\": -1.7,\n \"net_debt_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"balance_sheet_grade\": \"B+\"\n },\n \"technical\": {\n \"above_50dma\": false,\n \"above_200dma\": false,\n \"rsi_14\": 34.1,\n \"macd_recent_bullish_cross\": false,\n \"12_1_momentum_vs_sector_pct\": -8.7\n }\n },\n \"price_context\": {\n \"last_close\": 217.31,\n \"ytd_return_pct\": -20.73,\n \"from_52w_high_pct\": -37.76\n },\n \"filings_reviewed\": [\n {\n \"form\": \"10-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-02-26\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000158090526000004/ibp-20251231.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"FY2025 revenue $2.95B (flat YoY), EPS ~$10.17; operating margin 8.9%; strong FCF of $317M on $381M OCF; completed 3 acquisitions including Carolina Precision Fibers in Sept 2025; issued new 5.625% Senior Notes due 2034 ($400M face); net debt ~$606M vs $474M cash; interest rate swaps cover ~60-70% of floating exposure through 2026/2027\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"10-Q\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-07\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000158090526000028/ibp-20260331.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Q1 2026 revenue $660.5M (-3.5% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $1.79 vs $1.96 estimate; gross margin compressed ~170bps YoY due to labor costs and weather disruption; Installation segment same-branch sales declined mid-single-digits; completed ThermoTech acquisition Feb 2, 2026 for mechanical insulation expansion; cash $474M vs debt (current + long-term) ~$1.07B\"\n ]\n }\n ],\n \"options_context\": {\n \"expiries_examined\": [\n \"2026-05-15\",\n \"2026-06-18\"\n ],\n \"iv_summary\": \"IV appears low/distorted in the chain data — many strikes show IV near zero or 0.001, suggesting sparse options activity typical of a mid-cap stock not heavily covered by market makers.\",\n \"notable_skew_or_flow\": \"Put/call ratio on near-term (June expiry) is ~0.67 with weak flow bias (-$7.6K net). Top put OI strikes at $270 and $260 suggest protective positioning at those levels, consistent with the recent selloff having triggered stop losses into major support zones.\"\n },\n \"competitive_landscape\": \"IBP competes primarily with local/regional insulation installers (fragmented market) but is one of only two national-scale players in residential insulation installation. Primary public peers include Masco Corp (installer-adjacent building products), and USG Corporation (drywall/ceilings). The key competitive moat is the branch network density enabling same-day/same-week installation for builders — a logistics advantage that takes years to replicate. No single customer exceeds ~5% of revenue.\",\n \"key_risks\": [\n \"Residential housing starts remain at multi-year lows; mortgage rates elevated (~7%) suppresses builder confidence and new permit activity\",\n \"Q1 2026 margin compression (gross margin -170bps) may persist if labor inflation continues without pricing power pass-through\",\n \"IBP operates with significant leverage — rising interest costs on debt could pressure earnings as existing swaps expire\",\n \"The stock is highly sensitive to macro housing sentiment; any further deterioration in builder confidence (NAHB index) would weigh on the name\",\n \"CFO and COO insider buys at $204-$217 are currently near/above market, creating potential psychological resistance to averaging down\"\n ],\n \"what_the_market_might_be_missing\": \"Nothing material from a fundamental re-rating perspective. The 10-Q reveals that commercial revenue has been growing while residential volumes softened — this product mix shift is underappreciated by the market (commercial work carries higher ticket sizes and less cyclicality than single-family R&R). Management also called out continued strong cash generation and acquisitions contributing to earnings even as the core insulation business faces weather/cycle headwinds. The stock's 38% drawdown from 52-week high creates a technical setup for mean reversion if housing data stabilizes.\",\n \"anti_signals_present\": [\n \"concentration\"\n ],\n \"sources\": [\n {\n \"label\": \"IBP Q1 2026 press release\",\n \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/installed-building-products-reports-first-113000539.html\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"IBP Q1 earnings miss coverage\",\n \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-installed-building-products-ibp-221545467.html\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Q1 deep dive — volume weakness, cost headwinds\",\n \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ibp-q1-deep-dive-volume-071655542.html\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"10-K FY2025 filing\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000158090526000004/ibp-20251231.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"10-Q Q1 2026 filing\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1580905/000158090526000028/ibp-20260331.htm\"\n }\n ],\n \"unfetched_signals\": [\n \"13f_deltas\",\n \"politician_trades\",\n \"sentiment_score\"\n ]\n}\n\nOutput ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT\ninclude ... reasoning blocks — they eat the output token\nbudget and produce truncated, unparseable decisions.", "completions": [ { "ts": "2026-05-15T06:14:37.759Z", "raw_content": "The user wants me to score the dossier for IBP (Installed Building Products, Inc.) based on the provided scoring rubric and decide whether to skip or draft.\n\nLet's go through the scoring rubric:\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25)\n- 10 pts: 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases in last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K.\n We have 4 distinct insiders (CFO, COO, Director, CAO) buying ~$845K total. (+10)\n- +3 pts if CEO is among buyers: No.\n- +3 pts if CFO is among buyers: Yes. (+3)\n- +2 pts if total purchases > $5M: No ($845K).\n- 5 pts for known concentrated 13F initiation/add: \"pending — v2\". No.\n- +3 pts if top-3 positions: No info.\n- 2 pts for politician STOCK Act: \"pending — v2\". No.\n- +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days: They all bought on May 11. (+1)\n- Penalty: -10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING: No selling.\nScore A: 10 + 3 + 1 = 14.\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10)\n- 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with bullish bias and moderate/strong strength: No.\n- 3 pts: bullish IV skew: IV is low/distorted, put/call ratio ~0.67. No.\n- 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30: No, weak flow bias (-$7.6K net).\n- 1 pt: large OI at defended price: Top put OI at $270/$260. Not really a defended price below current price.\nScore B: 0.\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25)\n- 10 pts: earnings within 90d AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%: Missed Q1 2026. No.\n- 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract: No.\n- 5 pts: recent guidance raise: No.\n- 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind: \"Potential residential construction inflection... NAHB index\". Not very concrete/named hyperscaler capex. It's macro. Maybe 0 or 1. I'll give 0 for now.\nScore C: 0.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15)\n- 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median: 18.95 vs 22. (22-18.95)/22 = 13.8% below. Not ≥20%.\n- 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median: 13.43 vs 15.5. (15.5-13.43)/15.5 = 13.3% below. Not ≥30%.\n- 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7%: 5.42%. No.\n- 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25%: null.\nScore D: 0.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15)\n- 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15%: 38.36%. (+5)\n- 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY: -1.7pp YoY. No.\n- 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x: ~2x. Borderline, but dossier says \"Net debt / EBITDA ~2x\". I'll give 0 or 5? Let's say 0 since it's exactly 2x and they have leverage risks. Actually, ≤2x gets 5 pts. I'll give 5.\nScore E: 10.\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10)\n- 3 pts: above 50DMA and 200DMA: No.\n- 4 pts: 12-1 month return positive AND beating sector: -8.7% vs sector. No.\n- 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65: 34.1. No.\n- 1 pt: MACD bullish cross: No.\nScore F: 0.\n\nTotal Score: 14 + 0 + 0 + 0 + 10 + 0 = 24.\nWait, let's re-evaluate A carefully.\n3+ distinct insiders: 4. (+10)\nCFO buy: Yes. (+3)\nMultiple unrelated members within 30 days: Yes, all on May 11. (+1)\nTotal A = 14.\n\nRisk Class: market_cap not explicitly given, but revenue $3B, price $217. Shares ~ 3B/217 ≈ 13.8M shares. Market cap ~ $3B. So \"core\" (<$5B? Wait, core is >$5B. The prompt says: \"core\" — market_cap > $5B. \"asymmetric\" — market_cap ≤ $5B. So IBP is \"asymmetric\" by this definition? Actually, $3B is mid-cap. The rubric says asymmetric is ≤ $5B. I will classify as \"asymmetric\" or \"core\" depending on strict reading. I'll stick to \"asymmetric\" since ≤ $5B, but it doesn't matter much for the skip decision.\n\nThresholds: < 50 Skip. < 60 Skip.\nSo it's a definite skip.\n\nLet's check anti-signal gates:\n\"anti_signals_present\": [\"concentration\"]\nThe dossier says: \"concentration\" under anti_signals_present. Wait, the business snapshot says \"no individual builder exceeds mid-single-digit share of total revenue\" and \"No single customer exceeds ~5% of revenue.\" So \"concentration\" might refer to something else, or it's a false positive from scout. But the gate says: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nI will note that the concentration risk is mitigated by the diversified customer base (no single customer >5%), so the gate doesn't actually block it, but the score is too low anyway.\n\nEdge Check: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already know?\" The market knows it's beaten earnings, macro is weak, technicals are broken. Insider buys are above current price (underwater), which is a weak signal. No catalyst. Score is 24. Definitely skip.\n\nDraft the skip JSON.\nScore breakdown:\nsmart_money: 14\noptions_flow: 0\ncatalyst: 0\nmispricing: 0\nquality: 10\ntechnical: 0\nTotal: 24.\n\nReason: \"Score falls well below the publish threshold due to broken technicals, lack of near-term catalysts, and muted valuation discount. Insider buying is structurally unconvincing (all above current price) and the anti-signal for customer concentration, while disputed by the snapshot, reinforces caution in a macro-hostile environment.\"\n\nWait, let's verify the scoring rubric carefully.\nA: 10 (3+ distinct, >$500k) + 3 (CFO) + 1 (multiple within 30d) = 14.\nB: 0.\nC: 0.\nD: 0.\nE: 5 (ROIC) + 5 (Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2x) = 10.\nF: 0.\nTotal = 24.\n\nCheck thresholds: ASYMMETRIC < 60 Skip. CORE < 50 Skip.\nResult: Skip.\n\nI will format exactly as requested.\nOne minor point: The prompt says \"concentration\" in anti_signals_present. I'll just acknowledge it or ignore it since score is low. I'll stick to the skip format.\n\nLet's double check the exact output format for skip:\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": ,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n}\n\nAll good. I will generate it.\nWait, should I adjust score for quality? ROIC 38% gets 5. Debt/EBITDA ~2x gets 5. Gross margin declining gets 0. Total 10. Correct.\nSmart money: 14. Correct.\nTotal 24. Correct.\nReason matches.\nProceed. \nOne thing: The prompt says \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\" I'll add a brief note in the reason if needed, but 1-2 sentences is requested. I'll keep it tight.\n\"Score is 24, well below the skip threshold. Insider buying is unconvincing (all above current price), technicals are broken, and there is no near-term catalyst to offset the macro headwinds or the disputed customer concentration signal.\"\nMatches perfectly.\nOutput matches schema.\nDone. \nLet's produce. \nSelf-Correction/Verification during thought:\nCheck A scoring: \"3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\" -> 4 insiders, $845k. +10.\n\"+3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\" -> CFO bought. +3.\n\"+1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\" -> All on May 11. +1.\nTotal A = 14. Correct.\nCheck E scoring: \"ROIC ≥ 15%\" -> 38.36%. +5.\n\"net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x\" -> ~2x. +5.\nTotal E = 10. Correct.\nTotal = 24.\nSkip.\nReady. \nOutput matches exactly.✅\nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> JSON only. \nNote: I will ensure strict JSON formatting. No markdown.\nAll constraints met. \nProceeds. \n```json\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 24,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 14,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 0\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the publish threshold due to broken technicals, lack of near-term catalysts, and muted valuation discount. Insider buying is structurally unconvincing (all transactions occurred above the current price) and the disputed concentration signal reinforces caution in a macro-hostile environment.\"\n}\n```\nWait, the prompt says \"ONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc...\" but that's for PROCEED. For SKIP, it says output exactly the skip schema.\nI will output just the skip JSON.\nDone. \nLet's verify the anti-signal gate wording: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nThe reason covers it briefly. It's fine.\nAll good. \nOutput matches. \nProceeds. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]\n\"IF YOU SKIP — output exactly: { \"skip\": true, ... }\"\n\"ONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that sub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\" -> This applies to IF YOU PROCEED.\n\"OUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.\" -> I will output raw JSON.\nReady. \nOutput Generation. \n(Self-Correction/Refinement during thought)\nWait, the prompt says: \"OUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.\"\nI will strictly output raw JSON without ```json fences.\nScore breakdown matches rubric caps.\nEverything is consistent.\nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n\n\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 24,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 14,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 0\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the publish threshold due to broken technicals, lack of near-term catalysts, and muted valuation discount. Insider buying is structurally unconvincing (all transactions occurred above the current price) and the flagged concentration signal, while disputed by the snapshot, reinforces caution in a macro-hostile environment.\"\n}", "cleaned_content": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 24,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 14,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 0\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the publish threshold due to broken technicals, lack of near-term catalysts, and muted valuation discount. Insider buying is structurally unconvincing (all transactions occurred above the current price) and the flagged concentration signal, while disputed by the snapshot, reinforces caution in a macro-hostile environment.\"\n}", "tool_calls": null, "finish_reason": "stop" } ], "tool_results": [], "final_message": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 24,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 14,\n \"options_flow\": 0,\n \"catalyst\": 0,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 0\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the publish threshold due to broken technicals, lack of near-term catalysts, and muted valuation discount. Insider buying is structurally unconvincing (all transactions occurred above the current price) and the flagged concentration signal, while disputed by the snapshot, reinforces caution in a macro-hostile environment.\"\n}", "tool_calls_total": 0, "walltime_ms": 43894, "stop_reason": "stop", "completed_at": "2026-05-15T06:14:37.760Z" }