{ "model": "qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b", "started_at": "2026-05-14T19:58:36.920Z", "system_prompt": "You are Analyst, the thesis-judgment stage of an AI trade-ideas pipeline.\n\nScout has already gathered a JSON dossier of scoring_inputs. Your job is to\nSCORE the dossier against the methodology rubric and either draft an idea\n(if score ≥ 60) or skip.\n\nOPTION B (skip) IS THE EXPECTED DEFAULT. The pipeline publishes rarely and\nonly when something clears a high bar. Most dossiers should return\n{ \"skip\": true, \"reason\": \"...\", \"score\": }. Mediocre publishes burn\nDevil's Advocate budget and create credibility risk on the public site.\n\nLOOK AT THE FULL STRUCTURE MENU. Even when Scout says 'no asymmetric long\nopportunity exists' (verdict=range_bound_or_income), there may be a clear\nINCOME structure (covered call against the high; strangle inside an IV-\nelevated band; CSP at a downside-defended strike). Don't reflex-skip just\nbecause long_stock isn't attractive. Read the dossier looking for what\nSHAPE OF TRADE fits, not just whether long is fits.\n\nSCORING RUBRIC (sum to max 100)\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.smart_money\n • 10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in\n last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\n • +3 pts if CEO is among the buyers\n • +3 pts if CFO is among the buyers\n • +2 pts if total purchases > $5M\n • 5 pts for a known concentrated 13F initiation/add (Berkshire, Pershing\n Square, Appaloosa, Greenlight, Scion, Polen, Pabrai, Tepper, etc.)\n • +3 pts if it's in the manager's top-3 positions\n • 2 pts for politician STOCK Act recent buy\n • +1 pt if multiple unrelated members bought within 30 days\n • Penalty: −10 pts if material insider SELLING > BUYING in dollars\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.options_flow\n • 4 pts: whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish\n and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\n • 3 pts: bullish IV skew (call IV > put IV) consistent with thesis\n • 2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30 (sustained call-side flow)\n • 1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\n • Penalty: −5 pts if whale_put_blocks_otm ≥ 2 and bias is bearish\n without a hedging explanation\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25) — from scoring_inputs.catalyst\n • 10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\n • 8 pts: pending product launch / FDA / contract milestone in horizon\n • 5 pts: recent guidance raise (last 90 days)\n • 5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind (named hyperscaler capex flowing\n to this name in $)\n Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.mispricing\n • 5 pts: forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median (with non-deteriorating\n earnings)\n • 4 pts: EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below sector median\n • 4 pts: FCF yield ≥ 7% with stable FCF\n • 5 pts: SOTP gap ≥ 25% (replaces one of the above)\n Cap at 15.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15) — from scoring_inputs.quality\n • 5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15% (or trending there)\n • 5 pts: gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY\n • 5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x (or net cash)\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10) — from scoring_inputs.technical\n • 3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\n • 4 pts: 12-1 month price return positive AND beating sector\n • 2 pts: RSI 14 in 40-65 zone\n • 1 pt: MACD bullish cross in last 30 days\n\nRISK CLASS — choose one based on the dossier's market_cap field:\n \"core\" — market_cap > $5B. Standard methodology sizing.\n \"asymmetric\" — market_cap ≤ $5B (small-cap moonshot). 90%+ of these\n bets lose money or go to zero; the few that work pay\n for the rest. Position sizing is far more conservative\n to fit the variance.\n\nTHRESHOLDS — depend on risk_class\n\n CORE risk_class:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 4-5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 2.5-3.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 1.5-2.0%\n 50-59 Skip unless catalyst <30d + insider cluster\n < 50 Skip\n\n ASYMMETRIC risk_class — strict sizing:\n ≥ 80 Publish, confidence 5, position size cap 1.5%\n 70-79 Publish, confidence 4, position size cap 1.0%\n 60-69 Publish, confidence 3, position size cap 0.5%\n < 60 Skip (no exception; small caps need a clear catalyst)\n Structure must be long_stock (options structures are wrong shape for\n moonshots; Compliance enforces this in code).\n\nANTI-SIGNAL GATES (any one of these forces skip regardless of score):\n • Going-concern audit qualification\n • Pending material litigation (DOJ/SEC enforcement, class action with merit)\n • Customer concentration > 30%\n • Convertible/warrant overhang creating dilution > 10% of float\n • Accounting irregularities (restatements, auditor changes)\n • Avg daily volume < $5M (liquidity gate)\n • Pump-and-dump signals (sudden volume + chat-room mentions)\n\nIf scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a\ngate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\n\nEDGE CHECK (philosophical, not numeric)\n\nAfter scoring, ask: \"What does this idea say that the market doesn't already\nknow?\" If the answer is generic (it's cheap, AI is a tailwind, technicals\nlook great), the score is misleading — skip even if numerical score is 65.\nReal edge means a specific data point or interpretation the market missed.\n\nSCOUT VERDICT → STRUCTURE GUIDANCE\n\nRead scoring_inputs and Scout's verdict together. The verdict tells you\nWHICH structures Scout thinks are in scope for this name:\n\n verdict='promising' → long_stock | csp (for asymmetric long)\n verdict='range_bound_or_income' → cc | strangle | csp on pullback\n (DON'T default to long_stock — Scout\n already said this isn't an asymmetric\n long. Look at IV elevated → strangle;\n stock at 52w high, fundamentals healthy\n → cc against implicit long; pullback\n thesis with cash → csp)\n verdict='bearish_setup' → naked_call (rarely; respect ceiling)\n\nIf Scout supplied structure_hints[], they're a starting point. You can\noverride with reasoning, but if you go OUTSIDE the verdict's natural set,\nexplain why in thesis_long.\n\nSTRUCTURE SELECTION — full menu:\n\n long_stock — multi-quarter asymmetric thesis, IV not elevated, want\n full upside participation\n csp — bullish, want to own at strike, IV elevated, ann yield ≥15%\n cc — range-bound or mildly bullish, IV elevated, on top of long\n stock leg, if-called return ≥15% ann\n strangle — RANGE-BOUND thesis with elevated IV. Sell OTM call + OTM\n put. Need: comfortable owning at put_strike, no parabolic\n upside expectation. Ann yield ≥12%. Compute and emit\n breakeven_high (call_strike + total_premium) and\n breakeven_low (put_strike - total_premium).\n naked_put — same setup as CSP but using margin. ~2x yield, margin call\n risk. Only for margin-equipped accounts. Note explicitly.\n naked_call — bearish setup with elevated IV. UNCAPPED loss if rally.\n Confidence ceiling 4 (Compliance enforces). Requires\n explicit upside-shock thesis + defense plan in conditions.\n\nMatch the structure to the thesis shape — don't reach for naked options\njust because the premium is fatter. Most candidates are best as long_stock\nor CSP. Strangles only when you have a clear range thesis backed by IV\nand fundamentals.\n\nIF YOU SKIP — output exactly:\n {\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"reason\": \"1-2 sentences why this dossier doesn't support a thesis.\"\n }\n\nIF YOU PROCEED — output a draft idea matching this schema (this is the same\nschema the published site renders from):\n\n{\n \"skip\": false,\n \"score\": <0-100 composite>,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": <0-25>, \"options_flow\": <0-10>, \"catalyst\": <0-25>,\n \"mispricing\": <0-15>, \"quality\": <0-15>, \"technical\": <0-10>\n },\n \"draft\": {\n \"slug\": \"YYYY-MM-DD-symbol-keyphrase\",\n \"symbol\": \"TICKER\",\n \"company\": \"Full name\",\n \"sector\": \"semis-ai-infra\" | \"small-cap-asymmetric\",\n \"risk_class\": \"core\" | \"asymmetric\",\n \"headline\": \"Punchy 1-line — the news angle on the thesis\",\n \"thesis_short\": \"1 sentence — why this trade exists.\",\n \"thesis_long\": [\n \"Opening paragraph framing the setup.\",\n \"## Catalyst\",\n \"Detailed catalyst narrative.\",\n \"## Why the market is mispricing this\",\n \"Edge explanation, citing dossier facts.\",\n \"## Numbers\",\n \"- Bullet 1 with concrete numbers from the dossier\",\n \"- Bullet 2\",\n \"## Risk\",\n \"Honest description of what could go wrong.\"\n ],\n \"structure\": {\n \"type\": \"long_stock\" | \"csp\" | \"cc\" | \"strangle\" | \"naked_put\" | \"naked_call\",\n \"long_stock\": { \"entry_zone_low\": , \"entry_zone_high\": , \"shares_per_unit\": 100 },\n \"csp\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"if_assigned_basis\": },\n \"cc\": { \"underlying_basis\": , \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"if_called_return_pct\": },\n \"strangle\": { \"call_strike\": , \"put_strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"call_premium_target\": , \"put_premium_target\": , \"total_premium_target\": , \"breakeven_high\": , \"breakeven_low\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_note\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_put\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss_per_contract\": , \"margin_estimate_per_contract\": , \"warning\": \"...\" },\n \"naked_call\": { \"strike\": , \"expiry\": \"YYYY-MM-DD\", \"premium_target\": , \"annualized_yield_pct\": , \"max_loss\": \"UNLIMITED\", \"warning\": \"...\" }\n },\n \"entry\": {\n \"price_at_idea\": ,\n \"conditions\": \"How/when to enter — e.g., 'Open starter on pullback to MA50.'\"\n },\n \"exit\": {\n \"target_price\": ,\n \"time_horizon_months\": ,\n \"stop_conditions\": \"Specific signal(s) that trigger a close.\"\n },\n \"risk\": {\n \"bear_case\": \"Honest, specific bear case (not generic 'market could fall').\",\n \"what_breaks_thesis\": \"Specific event/data that invalidates the call.\",\n \"position_size_pct\": <0.5 to 5.0, conviction-weighted>\n },\n \"sources\": [\n { \"label\": \"...\", \"url\": \"...\" }\n ],\n \"confidence\": <1-5, conservative>,\n \"analyst\": \"research-desk\",\n \"scout_model\": \"minimax/minimax-m2.7\",\n \"analyst_model\": \"qwen/qwen3.6-35b-a3b\",\n \"devils_advocate_verdict\": null\n }\n}\n\nONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that\nsub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\n\nALL NUMBERS must be drawn from the dossier or computable from it. Do not\ninvent prices, strikes, premiums.\n\nOUTPUT ONLY VALID JSON. No surrounding prose, no markdown fences.", "user_prompt": "Here is the dossier from Scout. Decide: skip or draft.\n\n\nLESSONS LEARNED: none yet.\n\nDOSSIER:\n{\n \"symbol\": \"TSM\",\n \"company\": \"Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited\",\n \"investigation_summary\": \"TSM reported strong Q1 2026 earnings (EPS NT$22.08 vs est. NT$19.8 equivalent) and raised its global semiconductor market forecast to $1.5T by 2030, with AI/HPC representing 55% of that total. The Form 4 cluster is almost entirely ESPP plan-based purchases at a fixed Taiwan-dollar price ($71.82 USD-equivalent), not discretionary open-market buys — a critical nuance the investigation trigger glossed over as '10 real trades.' TSM is near its 52w high ($419 vs $421.9), up 78% YoY, with forward P/E of 21.7x and elevated IV (~48-50%) providing an income premium. No fundamental mispricing exists; the company is priced for perfection. The setup is best framed as structured income rather than asymmetric long.\",\n \"verdict\": \"range_bound_or_income\",\n \"confidence_in_data\": 5,\n \"structure_hints\": [\n \"cc\",\n \"strangle\"\n ],\n \"business_snapshot\": \"TSMC is the world's dominant contract chip manufacturer, deploying 305 distinct process technologies and manufacturing 12,682 products for 534 customers in 2025. It operates as a near-monopoly at leading-edge nodes (3nm, 2nm) serving Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm and others. Q1 2026 consolidated revenue was NT$1.134T (~US$35B equivalent) with net income of NT$572B. Gross margin is ~66% and operating margin ~58%, reflecting extraordinary pricing power from technological moat. The company approved a US$31.3B capital appropriation for advanced node capacity and fab construction, including US$20B injection into TSMC Arizona as it diversifies geographically to the U.S., Japan and Germany in response to geopolitical pressures. AI/HPC chips now represent ~55% of its served addressable market.\",\n \"scoring_inputs\": {\n \"smart_money\": {\n \"insider_open_market_purchases_90d\": [\n {\n \"insider\": \"Zhang Kevin Xiaoqiang\",\n \"role\": \"SVP, Deputy Co-COO\",\n \"amount_usd\": 4738,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000271/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498960.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"Yuan Lipen\",\n \"role\": \"VP\",\n \"amount_usd\": 3161,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000270/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498952.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"Yoo Chue-San\",\n \"role\": \"VP\",\n \"amount_usd\": 3951,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000269/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498944.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"Yeap Choh Fei\",\n \"role\": \"SVP\",\n \"amount_usd\": 4238,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000264/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498855.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"insider\": \"Wang Ying-Lang\",\n \"role\": \"SVP\",\n \"amount_usd\": 4093,\n \"date\": \"2026-05-08\",\n \"source_url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000261/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498831.xml\"\n }\n ],\n \"insider_open_market_total_usd_90d\": 20181,\n \"distinct_insider_buyers_90d\": 5,\n \"ceo_buy_present\": false,\n \"cfo_buy_present\": false,\n \"material_insider_selling_90d_usd\": 0,\n \"notable_13f_holders\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ],\n \"politician_recent_buys\": [\n \"pending — v2\"\n ]\n },\n \"catalyst\": {\n \"next_earnings_date\": \"2026-07-16\",\n \"recent_eps_surprise_pattern\": \"4 consecutive beats: Q1 2026 +4.7%, Q4 2025 +5.5%, Q3 2025 +11.2%, Q2 2025 +6.8%\",\n \"guidance_raise_in_last_90d\": true,\n \"named_catalysts\": [\n {\n \"type\": \"guidance\",\n \"description\": \"TSMC raised global semiconductor market forecast from $1T to >$1.5T by 2030, citing AI/HPC as 55% of the TAM — a 50% upward revision.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-05-14 announcement\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1092274/tsmc-raises-global-chip-market-forecast-to-1-5-trillion-as-ai-demand-surges-1092274.html\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"corporate\",\n \"description\": \"TSMC Board approved US$31.3B capital appropriation and US$20B injection into TSMC Arizona, signaling major capacity expansion.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-05-12 6-K filing\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000274/tsm-boardx20260512.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n },\n {\n \"type\": \"earnings\",\n \"description\": \"Q1 2026: Revenue NT$1.134T, Net income NT$572B, EPS NT$22.08 — solid beat with no guidance cut.\",\n \"date_or_window\": \"2026-05-12 board approval of Q1 results\",\n \"source_urls\": [\n \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000274/tsm-boardx20260512.htm\"\n ],\n \"directional_bias\": \"bullish\"\n }\n ]\n },\n \"mispricing\": {\n \"forward_pe\": 21.72,\n \"sector_median_forward_pe\": null,\n \"ev_to_ebitda\": 2.815,\n \"sector_median_ev_to_ebitda\": null,\n \"fcf_yield_pct\": 1.72,\n \"sotp_gap_pct\": null,\n \"narrative\": \"TSM trades at a ~22x forward P/E with 35% revenue growth, which is not obviously cheap vs. the overall market but is actually reasonable for a near-monopolist at leading-edge nodes given its ROIC of 36%. The trailing P/E of 35.8x compresses sharply to 21.7x on forward estimates — this multiple compression path may already be priced in after the 78% YoY run. No compelling SOTP gap exists; TSMC is priced for perfection with limited margin of safety.\"\n },\n \"quality\": {\n \"roic_pct\": 36.2,\n \"gross_margin_trend_pp_yoy\": null,\n \"net_debt_to_ebitda\": 0.38,\n \"balance_sheet_grade\": \"A\"\n },\n \"technical\": {\n \"above_50dma\": true,\n \"above_200dma\": true,\n \"rsi_14\": 68,\n \"macd_recent_bullish_cross\": false,\n \"12_1_momentum_vs_sector_pct\": null\n }\n },\n \"price_context\": {\n \"last_close\": 418.88,\n \"ytd_return_pct\": 23,\n \"from_52w_high_pct\": -0.7\n },\n \"filings_reviewed\": [\n {\n \"form\": \"6-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-12\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000274/tsm-boardx20260512.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Q1 2026: Revenue NT$1.134T, Net income NT$572B, EPS NT$22.08\",\n \"Board approved $31.3B capital appropriation for fab construction and advanced node capacity\",\n \"TSMC Arizona injection of up to US$20B authorized\",\n \"Promotions announced for VP-level executives including Jonathan Lee to SVP\",\n \"Cash dividend of NT$7/share declared for Q1 2026, record date September 22\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"6-K\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-12\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000275/a20260512boardofdirectorsr.htm\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Board of Directors resolution for TSMC Arizona capital increase up to US$20B\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"4 (ESPP)\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000271/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498960.xml\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Kevin Zhang SVP/Delayed Co-COO: 66 common shares purchased via ESPP at NT$2257.18 = US$71.82 equivalent — NOT open-market purchase\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"4 (ESPP)\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000270/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498952.xml\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Yuan Lipen VP: 44 common shares via ESPP at US$71.82 equivalent — plan-based, not discretionary\"\n ]\n },\n {\n \"form\": \"4 (ESPP)\",\n \"filed\": \"2026-05-11\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000269/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498944.xml\",\n \"key_takeaways\": [\n \"Yoo Chue-San VP: 55 shares via ESPP, also holds large existing position in Taiwan common shares (1.79M disposed) — routine plan transaction\"\n ]\n }\n ],\n \"options_context\": {\n \"expiries_examined\": [\n \"2026-06-18\"\n ],\n \"iv_summary\": \"ATM IV ~48-49% at Jun-18 expiry; OTM calls at $420-$480 show 48-49% IV; IV skew relatively flat, no significant skew inversion\",\n \"notable_skew_or_flow\": \"Net dollar bias is +63.8% call-biased ($41.8M call vs $9.3M put). Whale OTM call blocks present: $115 strike (72% OTM), $290 (31% OTM), $320+ strikes all with significant volume. Put positioning concentrated at $350-$410 — hedging activity rather than directional bearish. V/OI > 1 on the deep-OTM $115 call strike (4.44x) and near-ATM $440 put (1.79x). High OI on June $370 calls (35,461) and $400 calls (23,181) — these serve as resistance levels.\"\n },\n \"competitive_landscape\": \"TSMC is the dominant pure-play foundry with no true peer competitor at leading-edge nodes (2nm/3nm). Samsung Foundry is its closest but has consistently lagged on yield and customer retention. Intel IFS remains years behind. SMIC is restricted by U.S. export controls from serving advanced node customers. This moat makes TSM the irreplaceable bottleneck in global AI chip supply — it serves virtually every major fabless AI accelerator designer.\",\n \"key_risks\": [\n \"Geopolitical: Taiwan Strait risk is a persistent tail-risk discount that markets historically underprice; any escalation would be catastrophic for share price\",\n \"TSM is at/near 52-week high with limited margin of safety from current levels\",\n \"ESPP Form 4 cluster represents plan-based purchases, not genuine insider conviction signals — investigation trigger overstates smart-money signal\",\n \"IV compressed vs. prior periods as stock has run up; income premium erodes on pullback\",\n \"AI capex cycle concentration: 55% TAM in AI/HPC creates single-cycle dependency risk if hyperscaler spending normalizes\"\n ],\n \"what_the_market_might_be_missing\": \"The May 12 board resolution for a $20B TSMC Arizona capital injection — combined with the $31.3B total capex authorization — signals aggressive U.S.-origin capacity expansion under CHIPS Act framework that may be underestimated by analysts projecting future dividend sustainability and long-term earnings power. The revised semiconductor TAM to >$1.5T by 2030 (vs prior $1T) implies TSMC's revenue base could double from current levels over five years, but the stock has already partially priced this given the +78% YoY move. Nothing in filings suggests mispricing; the edge is that IV provides consistent premium capture on any pullback to the 50-DMA area.\",\n \"anti_signals_present\": [\n \"dilution\",\n \"concentration\"\n ],\n \"sources\": [\n {\n \"label\": \"TSMC Board May-12 Resolutions (6-K)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000274/tsm-boardx20260512.htm\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Form 4 - Kevin Zhang ESPP purchase\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1046179/000104617926000271/xslF345X06/wk-form4_1778498960.xml\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"TSMC chip market $1.5T forecast (Proactive Investors)\",\n \"url\": \"https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/1092274/tsmc-raises-global-chip-market-forecast-to-1-5-trillion-as-ai-demand-surges-1092274.html\"\n },\n {\n \"label\": \"Fundamentals data - TSM\",\n \"url\": \"https://finance.yahoo.com\"\n }\n ],\n \"unfetched_signals\": [\n \"13f_deltas\",\n \"politician_trades\",\n \"sentiment_score\"\n ]\n}\n\nOutput ONLY the decision JSON described in the system prompt. Do NOT\ninclude ... reasoning blocks — they eat the output token\nbudget and produce truncated, unparseable decisions.", "completions": [ { "ts": "2026-05-14T19:59:53.222Z", "raw_content": "The dossier is for TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited).\nLet's evaluate against the rubric.\n\nA. SMART-MONEY CLUSTER (max 25)\n- Insider open-market purchases: 5 insiders, total $20,181. But the dossier explicitly says these are ESPP plan-based purchases, not discretionary open-market buys. The prompt says: \"10 pts if 3+ distinct insiders with open-market purchases (code P) in last 90 days totaling ≥ $500K\". This fails the threshold. So 0 pts for the base.\n- CEO/CFO buy: false.\n- Total > $5M: false.\n- 13F initiation: pending.\n- Politician buy: pending.\n- Penalty: none.\nScore: 0.\n\nB. OPTIONS FLOW / UOA (max 10)\n- Whale call blocks OTM: $115 strike (72% OTM), $290 (31% OTM), $320+. But wait, current price is ~$419. These are deep ITM calls? Or maybe the dossier means $420, $480? Actually, the text says \"Whale OTM call blocks present: $115 strike (72% OTM)\". That's weird for a $419 stock. Maybe it's a typo in the dossier or refers to options on a different contract? Regardless, flow_directional_bias is bullish, but the threshold says \"whale_call_blocks_otm ≥ 2 with flow_directional_bias = bullish and flow_strength ∈ {moderate, strong}\". I'll give it a benefit of the doubt or 0. Let's look at net_dollar_bias_pct: +63.8% call-biased. That's >30. So +2 pts.\n- Bullish IV skew: \"IV skew relatively flat\". 0 pts.\n- Net dollar bias > 30%: +2 pts.\n- Large OI at defended level: High OI on June $370 calls and $400 calls. +1 pt.\nScore: ~3-4. Let's say 3.\n\nC. CATALYST (max 25)\n- Earnings within 90 days (July 16, 2026) AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%: Yes, 4 consecutive beats. +10 pts.\n- Guidance raise in last 90 days: Yes, raised TAM to $1.5T. +5 pts.\n- Quantifiable sector tailwind: AI/HPC 55% of TAM. +5 pts.\n- Cap at 25.\nScore: 20.\n\nD. MISPRICING (max 15)\n- Forward P/E ≥ 20% below sector median: Forward P/E 21.72. Sector median not given, but narrative says \"not obviously cheap\". 0 pts.\n- EV/EBITDA ≥ 30% below: EV/EBITDA 2.815. Not below median. 0 pts.\n- FCF yield ≥ 7%: 1.72%. 0 pts.\n- SOTP gap ≥ 25%: null. 0 pts.\nScore: 0.\n\nE. QUALITY (max 15)\n- ROIC ≥ 15%: 36.2%. +5 pts.\n- Gross margin expanding ≥ 3pp YoY: null. 0 pts.\n- Net debt/EBITDA ≤ 2x: 0.38. +5 pts.\nScore: 10.\n\nF. MOMENTUM/TECHNICAL (max 10)\n- Above 50DMA and 200DMA: Yes. +3 pts.\n- 12-1 month return positive AND beating sector: null. 0 pts.\n- RSI 14 in 40-65 zone: 68. Just outside. 0 pts.\n- MACD bullish cross: false. 0 pts.\nScore: 3.\n\nTotal Score: 0 + 3 + 20 + 0 + 10 + 3 = 36.\nWait, let's double check the scoring.\nSmart money: 0.\nOptions: 2 (net dollar bias) + 1 (OI) = 3.\nCatalyst: 10 (earnings + beat streak) + 5 (guidance) + 5 (sector tailwind) = 20. Cap 25.\nMispricing: 0.\nQuality: 5 (ROIC) + 5 (debt) = 10.\nTechnical: 3.\nTotal: 36.\n\nRisk Class: Market cap of TSM is ~$500B+. So \"core\".\nThresholds for Core: <50 Skip.\nAnti-signal gates: \"dilution\", \"concentration\". The prompt says: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nDilution: TSM has a massive ADR conversion history and ongoing issuance, but it's a known, managed process. Concentration: Top customers (Apple, NVIDIA, etc.) make up a huge % of revenue. This is a known characteristic of foundries, not a sudden red flag, but it's listed.\nGiven the score is 36, it's well below 50. Skip is mandatory.\n\nReason for skip: Score is 36 (<50). No material insider conviction (ESPP only), no mispricing (priced for perfection at 22x Fwd PE), and high concentration/dilution anti-signal gates. The setup is structurally an income play on a near-52-week high, not a thesis-worthy asymmetric or core trade by pipeline standards.\n\nLet's calculate the score breakdown carefully to match the prompt.\nsmart_money: 0\noptions_flow: 3\ncatalyst: 20\nmispricing: 0\nquality: 10\ntechnical: 3\nTotal: 36.\n\nCheck thresholds: Core risk class, score 36 < 50 -> Skip.\nI will output the skip JSON.\nMake sure format matches exactly.\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 36,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 3,\n \"catalyst\": 20,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls below the 50-point skip threshold. Insider activity is entirely ESPP-based with no discretionary conviction, valuation is full (22x Fwd P/E) with zero mispricing, and anti-signal gates for customer concentration and dilution remain unaddressed. The dossier itself confirms a structured income setup rather than a thesis-worthy asymmetric or core position.\"\n}\nWait, let's verify the catalyst points. Earnings in 90d + 4 quarters beats = 10. Guidance raise = 5. Sector tailwind = 5. Total 20. Correct.\nQuality: ROIC 36.2% = 5. Debt/EBITDA 0.38 = 5. Total 10. Correct.\nTechnical: Above 50/200 DMA = 3. Correct.\nOptions: Net dollar bias > 30% = 2. OI at defended level = 1. Total 3. Correct.\nSmart money: 0. Correct.\nTotal 36. Correct.\n\nAll numbers align. Output matches schema.\nOne minor thing: The prompt says \"Cap at 25 even if components add to more.\" for catalyst. I have 20.\n\"Cap at 15\" for mispricing. I have 0.\nEverything is fine.\nProceed. \nOutput matches exactly.\nNo extra text.\nDone. \nLet's quickly re-read the anti-signal gate instruction: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nI will briefly mention it in the reason if needed, but the score < 50 already forces a skip. The reason covers it.\nReady. \nOutput matches requested format.\nProceeds. \n[Self-Correction/Verification during thought]\nCheck options flow scoring: \"2 pts: net_dollar_bias_pct > 30\". Dossier says \"+63.8% call-biased\". So +2.\n\"1 pt: large OI building at a defended price level\". Dossier says \"High OI on June $370 calls and $400 calls\". So +1.\nTotal options: 3. Correct.\nCheck technical: \"3 pts: above both 50DMA and 200DMA\". Dossier says true. +3.\nCheck quality: \"5 pts: ROIC ≥ 15%\", \"5 pts: net debt / EBITDA ≤ 2x\". +10.\nCheck catalyst: \"10 pts: earnings within 90 days AND last 4 quarters' EPS surprise > 0%\". +10. \"5 pts: recent guidance raise\". +5. \"5 pts: quantifiable sector tailwind\". +5. Total 20.\nCheck smart money: 0.\nTotal: 36.\nThreshold for core < 50 is Skip.\nReason is solid.\nOutput matches exactly.\nDone. \nProceeds. \nOutput Generation. \n```json\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 36,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 3,\n \"catalyst\": 20,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 50-point skip threshold. Insider activity is entirely ESPP-based with no discretionary conviction, valuation is full (22x Fwd P/E) with zero mispricing, and anti-signal gates for customer concentration and dilution remain unaddressed. The dossier itself confirms a structured income setup rather than a thesis-worthy asymmetric or core position.\"\n}\n```\nMatches requirements. No extra text. Valid JSON.\nDone. \nProceeds. \n(Self-Correction/Note during generation prep)\nWait, the prompt says: \"If scoring_inputs has anti_signals_present non-empty, treat each entry as a gate; skip unless you can articulate WHY it doesn't apply to this case.\"\nI should probably acknowledge the gates in the reason to be safe, though the score already forces a skip. The reason does mention them.\nAll good.\nOutput matches. \nProceeds. \n[Final Check of the Prompt]\n\"ONLY ONE STRUCTURE TYPE. Pick long_stock, csp, OR cc and only fill that sub-object. Leave the others null/omitted.\" -> Not applicable since skipping.\n\"IF YOU SKIP — output exactly: { ... }\"\nAll good.\nOutput matches.\nProceeds. \n[Output Generation] -> *Proceeds*\n\n\n{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 36,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 3,\n \"catalyst\": 20,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 50-point skip threshold. Insider activity is entirely ESPP-based with no discretionary conviction, valuation is full (22x Fwd P/E) with zero mispricing, and anti-signal gates for customer concentration and dilution remain unaddressed. The dossier itself confirms a structured income setup rather than a thesis-worthy asymmetric or core position.\"\n}", "cleaned_content": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 36,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 3,\n \"catalyst\": 20,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 50-point skip threshold. Insider activity is entirely ESPP-based with no discretionary conviction, valuation is full (22x Fwd P/E) with zero mispricing, and anti-signal gates for customer concentration and dilution remain unaddressed. The dossier itself confirms a structured income setup rather than a thesis-worthy asymmetric or core position.\"\n}", "tool_calls": null, "finish_reason": "stop" } ], "tool_results": [], "final_message": "{\n \"skip\": true,\n \"score\": 36,\n \"score_breakdown\": {\n \"smart_money\": 0,\n \"options_flow\": 3,\n \"catalyst\": 20,\n \"mispricing\": 0,\n \"quality\": 10,\n \"technical\": 3\n },\n \"reason\": \"Score falls well below the 50-point skip threshold. Insider activity is entirely ESPP-based with no discretionary conviction, valuation is full (22x Fwd P/E) with zero mispricing, and anti-signal gates for customer concentration and dilution remain unaddressed. The dossier itself confirms a structured income setup rather than a thesis-worthy asymmetric or core position.\"\n}", "tool_calls_total": 0, "walltime_ms": 76303, "stop_reason": "stop", "completed_at": "2026-05-14T19:59:53.223Z" }