{
  "symbol": "TSM",
  "company": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:53.753Z",
  "event_count": 18,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-23T15:15:14.706Z",
      "stage": "analyst",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "Composite score of 44 falls below the 45-point threshold for publication or paper-tracking. Smart-money and options flow provide zero conviction (insider purchases total <$500K with no CEO/CFO involvement; options show defensive put hedging rather than directional conviction). The dossier also flags customer concentration and pump signals as anti-signals; while the valuation discount is rational for a mega-cap, the lack of asymmetric upside or clearly elevated-income opportunity means this dossier does not clear the high bar for recommendation-grade or paper-tracked ideas.",
      "trigger": "[form4_cluster] 2 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · 2 real trades (2 buys) · + [options_flow_bullish] 3 OTM call whale blocks · 29% net $ bullish bias · moderate · expiry 2026-07-24",
      "source": "hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-23T15:15:14.675Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Composite score of 44 falls below the 45-point threshold for publication or paper-tracking. Smart-money and options flow provide zero conviction (insider purchases total <$500K with no CEO/CFO involvement; options show defensive put hedging rather than directional conviction). The dossier also flags customer concentration and pump signals as anti-signals; while the valuation discount is rational for a mega-cap, the lack of asymmetric upside or clearly elevated-income opportunity means this dossier does not clear the high bar for recommendation-grade or paper-tracked ideas.",
      "score": 44,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 9,
        "quality": 10,
        "technical": 10
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-23-TSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-23T15:14:09.923Z",
      "summary": "TSMC is the world's dominant contract silicon manufacturer serving virtually every major chip designer (Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm). The investigation triggered on 2 Form 4 open-market purchases by VP Yuan Lipen buying twice in one week ($75K and $80K tranches) plus a SVP/Deputy Co-COO ESPP buy — notable but not definitive. Fundamentals are exceptional: 35% revenue growth, 58% earnings growth, 62% gross margins, forward P/E of 22.4x against near-52w-high pricing ($440 vs $476 high). The July 16 earnings are the primary near-term catalyst with a consistent beat history (avg +5-11%). Options flow is mixed: heavy put volume at OTM strikes ($470) signals hedging rather than directional bullishness, contradicting the initial trigger framing. TSM has run ~50% year-to-date and sits only 7.7% below its all-time high — no meaningful mispricing exists. The stock is fundamentally healthy but fully valued; the income strategy framework applies.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 17,
      "walltime_min": 20,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-23-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-16T16:00:10.704Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 45-point skip threshold. TSM trades near all-time highs at ~22x forward P/E with no valuation gap or clear 20%+ upside path. The insider buying cluster is ESPP dust rather than conviction, and the flagged dilution anti-signal warrants caution. No income or equity structure justifies the risk given the range-bound verdict and elevated IV.",
      "score": 25,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 10,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 10,
        "technical": 5
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-16-TSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-16T15:59:26.961Z",
      "summary": "TSM is a world-leading pure-play foundry at or near all-time highs (4% below 52w). The Form 4 'cluster' triggering this investigation is entirely routine ESPP employee contributions (~USD $76/share, <$5K per filer) — no genuine open-market insider conviction exists. Q2 FY26 earnings are July 16 and May revenue came in +30% YoY with consistent positive EPS surprises. The stock is fairly valued on a ~22x forward P/E with sector-quality ROIC and margins, but the geopolitical Taiwan premium embedded in this multiple limits upside. IV is elevated at 50-58%, making covered calls and strangles attractive income structures.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 21,
      "walltime_min": 26,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-16-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-12T15:41:21.145Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score of 39 falls below the 45 threshold for publication or paper-tracking. While valuation compression and an imminent earnings catalyst provide a floor, the complete absence of discretionary insider buying, put-skewed options flow indicating institutional hedging, and structural geopolitical/concentration risks prevent this dossier from clearing the high bar for a trade idea.",
      "score": 39,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 20,
        "mispricing": 9,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 5
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-12-TSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-12T15:40:24.533Z",
      "summary": "TSMC is the world's dominant advanced-node contract chipmaker, manufacturing chips for Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and virtually every major fabless semiconductor designer. AI infrastructure buildout continues to drive multi-year demand that CEO C.C. Wei explicitly characterized as 'years ahead of supply.' The stock is near its 52-week high at ~$426 (from $450 peak in June 2026), up +45.8% YTD, with a forward P/E of ~21.8x that remains cheap vs. US-listed semis peers trading at 30-40x+ earnings. Q2 earnings on July 16 represent the next clear catalyst. However, insider activity is exclusively ESPP plan contributions (non-discretionary), there is no CEO/CFO open-market purchase in sight, options flow shows a put-skewed bias suggesting hedging rather than bullish conviction, and the stock has already run significantly. The valuation gap vs. peers is real but not dramatic given TSMC's geopolitical risk discount — making this an income-strategy candidate (CC on rallies) rather than a fresh asymmetric long.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 18,
      "walltime_min": 10,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-12-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-08T03:40:45.204Z",
      "summary": "TSMC is the world's dominant contract chipmaker with extraordinary fundamentals: 62% gross margins, 47% net margin, $719B in annual FCF, and a forward P/E of ~21x against an AI-supercycle backdrop. The stock has run +100% YTD (207→415) and sits just below its all-time high ($450). CEO C.C. Wei's June 2026 comments at the shareholder meeting were constructively bullish — signaling persistent AI capacity constraints, openness to future price hikes, and a multi-year moat advantage over rivals requiring years to catch up. However: TSM is NOT mispriced. At $415 it trades near its ceiling with limited upside runway in the base case, an elevated forward P/E for a semiconductor manufacturer, and significant geopolitical risk embedded at current levels (Taiwan Strait). Options flow confirms bearish positioning ($10M net put bias vs $2.8M call bias), consistent with institutional hedging into a 52w-high name rather than directional conviction. The dividend ex-date is June 11, 2026. No open-market insider purchase cluster was identified in the trailing 90 days — Form 4s reviewed show equity-linked note settlements and small VP-level buys (~$3-7K), not strategic accumulation by C-suite leadership.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 22,
      "walltime_min": 9,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-08-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-05T00:12:59.448Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "TSM is fully valued near its 52-week high with no mispricing or asymmetric upside; the dossier explicitly notes limited upside without a new catalyst, and the AI demand/pricing power narrative is already priced in, failing both the edge check and the 20% return threshold.",
      "score": 48,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 4,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 15,
        "technical": 4
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-05-TSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-05T00:11:56.928Z",
      "summary": "TSMC is the world's dominant semiconductor foundry with a near-monopoly on leading-edge chip manufacturing (3nm, 5nm nodes) serving Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom. The company delivered outstanding Q1 2026 EPS of $3.49 (+4.68% beat), guiding for sustained AI-driven demand that will outpace supply for years — CEO C.C. Wei reiterated this at the June 4, 2026 shareholders meeting and hinted at price hikes. However, TSM trades at $444.92, just -1.2% from its 52-week high of $450.16, has appreciated +60.8% YTD (from ~$277 in September 2025), and the stock is fully valued on forward P/E vs. sector without a discrete near-term re-rating catalyst beyond earnings beats. The options flow shows 2 OTM call whale blocks with moderate net bullish bias (+19%), but also heavy put positioning in the $350-$420 range suggesting large players hedging rather than expressing directional conviction. There is no mispricing relative to intrinsic value, and the geopolitical Taiwan risk premium is already embedded.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 15,
      "walltime_min": 27,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-04-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-28T21:34:11.723Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 50-point threshold. Customer concentration >30% triggers a hard anti-signal gate, and the stock trades near all-time highs with no valuation mispricing. Insider buying is negligible ESPP activity overshadowed by $14M in insider selling, providing no smart-money edge to justify a paper-tracked or conviction setup.",
      "score": 42,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 2,
        "catalyst": 20,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 10,
        "technical": 10
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-28-TSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-28T21:32:56.229Z",
      "summary": "TSMC is the world's dominant contract chipmaker with a fortress balance sheet and accelerating AI-driven demand. The Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation consisted overwhelmingly of ESPP plan transactions (automated payroll deductions), not discretionary open-market purchases — only three real trades were found: CEO C.C. Wei's tiny $11K ESPP buy, SVP Kevin Zhang's $4.7K ESPP contribution, and a VP with minimal ADS buys near market price. The stock sits 1.3% from its all-time high at $424.86, up ~58% YTD on AI euphoria. With a forward P/E of 21.8x — elevated but justifiable given its monopoly position — there is no compelling valuation mispricing. The July 17 earnings (Q2 results) are the primary near-term catalyst, with TSMC having guided >30% revenue growth and raised capex guidance to $52-56B.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 21,
      "walltime_min": 13,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-28-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-21T21:35:15.222Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 50-point threshold for core risk classes. TSMC trades at a structural geopolitical discount near 52-week highs with no material mispricing or asymmetric catalyst; insider activity is routine ESPP/LTI compensation, and elevated IV does not justify the risk/reward for income structures. The market already prices in TSMC's foundry moat and execution perfectly.",
      "score": 29,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 10,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 10,
        "technical": 9
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-21-TSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-21T21:34:35.330Z",
      "summary": "The investigation was triggered by a Form 4 cluster (10 filings in 14 days) and Amkor/AMD advanced packaging news. After reading the actual filing text, the Form 4 cluster is almost entirely routine ESPP/LTI plan contributions — not discretionary open-market purchases by insiders demonstrating conviction. The CEO's single transaction was only 160 common shares acquired through a payroll-deduction employee stock purchase plan at NT$71.82/share, representing standard compensation structure alignment rather than genuine insider conviction buying. One VP made a small open-market TSM ADR buy of 10 shares at $391.81 on May 19 — marginal signal. The Amkor/AMD packaging angle is an indirect competitive threat to TSMC's CoWoS business but not a direct catalyst for TSM itself; AMD Venice ramping on TSMC 2nm is already well-known and priced in.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 23,
      "walltime_min": 9,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-21-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-14T19:59:53.223Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 50-point skip threshold. Insider activity is entirely ESPP-based with no discretionary conviction, valuation is full (22x Fwd P/E) with zero mispricing, and anti-signal gates for customer concentration and dilution remain unaddressed. The dossier itself confirms a structured income setup rather than a thesis-worthy asymmetric or core position.",
      "score": 36,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 3,
        "catalyst": 20,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 10,
        "technical": 3
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-14-TSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-14T19:58:36.847Z",
      "summary": "TSM reported strong Q1 2026 earnings (EPS NT$22.08 vs est. NT$19.8 equivalent) and raised its global semiconductor market forecast to $1.5T by 2030, with AI/HPC representing 55% of that total. The Form 4 cluster is almost entirely ESPP plan-based purchases at a fixed Taiwan-dollar price ($71.82 USD-equivalent), not discretionary open-market buys — a critical nuance the investigation trigger glossed over as '10 real trades.' TSM is near its 52w high ($419 vs $421.9), up 78% YoY, with forward P/E of 21.7x and elevated IV (~48-50%) providing an income premium. No fundamental mispricing exists; the company is priced for perfection. The setup is best framed as structured income rather than asymmetric long.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 18,
      "walltime_min": 9,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-14-TSM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-07T22:39:52.535Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score of 59 falls below the 60-point publish threshold for core names, and the next major catalyst (July 16 earnings) is >30 days away, failing the exception clause. Despite exceptional insider buying and relative valuation, the stock trades near its 52-week high with a thin margin of safety and no near-term asymmetric catalyst to justify a directional entry.",
      "score": 59,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 16,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 20,
        "mispricing": 9,
        "quality": 10,
        "technical": 4
      },
      "debug_path": null
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-07T22:38:51.891Z",
      "summary": "TSMC is operating at extraordinary momentum — March 2026 revenue up 45% YoY and Q1 EPS of $3.49 beat estimates by ~5% across four consecutive quarters. All 25+ senior executives received RSU vests in the April 9 reporting, with C.C. Wei personally buying 235K shares outright (open-market). The stock sits at $414, essentially at its 52-week high ($420), and IV is elevated (~48-51%). Forward P/E of ~21.5x makes it expensive versus semis sector median (~25x forward for peers like NVDA), but the EV/EBITDA of just ~3x suggests the market prices in geopolitical risk that may be overstated relative to execution. The core tension: great business, fully-valued price, near-term earnings catalyst (July 16) with modest upside to consensus target ($463). Options IV supports income strategies more than directional premiums.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 29,
      "walltime_min": 15,
      "debug_path": null
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "TSM",
    "call": "BUY",
    "confidence": 5,
    "score": 7,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (85.0%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (53.3)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (2d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-6.7%)"
    },
    "summary": "BUY (score +7) · 12-1 mom 85.0% · RSI 53.3 · above_both · -6.7% from high",
    "last_close": 436.39,
    "one_month_ago_close": 407.15,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 220.09,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 84.99,
    "rsi_14": 53.3,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -6.69,
    "period_high": 467.67,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 327.37,
      "fair": 439.59,
      "bull": 700,
      "bear_return_pct": -25,
      "fair_return_pct": 0.7,
      "bull_return_pct": 60.4,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 354,
        "target_mean": 473.39584,
        "target_high": 700,
        "analyst_count": 18
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:53.746Z"
  }
}