{
  "symbol": "TRU",
  "company": "TransUnion",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:53.533Z",
  "event_count": 1,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-04T01:15:34.578Z",
      "summary": "TransUnion is a credit reporting bureau with strong fundamentals — forward P/E of 12.4x, consistent EPS beats (last 8 quarters all positive), and an aggressive M&A strategy including the March 2026 acquisition of Trans Union de Mexico (largest Mexican credit bureau). However, the smart-money signal that triggered this investigation is conclusively negative: after reading every Form 4 filed in the last 30 days, there are ZERO open-market purchases by insiders — all filings are either scheduled 10b5-1 plan sales or tax-withholding transactions. The company is executing on a buy-side strategy (buybacks, acquisitions) while multiple senior executives and directors quietly sell under pre-planned programs. Options flow is moderately bearish. Price is down ~30% from its 52-week high with no clear re-rating catalyst in the near term.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 21,
      "walltime_min": 28,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-04-TRU.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [
    {
      "id": "L-2026-06-19-003",
      "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread",
      "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z",
      "outcome_context": "win",
      "category": "other",
      "pattern": "When directional thesis is correct but the move occurs after option expiry, the trade is a technical win but a strategic loss. The capital is locked up during the delayed reaction period, and theta decay continues. For binary operational events, consider selling the put spread leg to finance a longer-dated call/put if the directional conviction is high but timing is uncertain.",
      "evidence": "UEC put spread returned +203% because the stock eventually dropped below $12.50, but the move occurred 4-6 days after expiry. If the stock had stayed above $12.50 at expiry and then dropped later, the spread would have expired worthless despite the correct directional thesis. The thesis was right but the structure timed the wrong window.",
      "applicability": "Applies to all event-driven option trades where the catalyst is an operational milestone rather than a financial metric. Does NOT apply to pure financial catalysts (Fed decisions, regulatory approvals) where reactions are typically immediate.",
      "confidence": 4
    },
    {
      "id": "L-2026-06-19-004",
      "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread",
      "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z",
      "outcome_context": "win",
      "category": "smart_money",
      "pattern": "In commodity-linked names with institutional holders, put skew is often driven by hedging activity (portfolio insurance, commodity price exposure) rather than directional bearishness. Elevated put skew in these names should be discounted as a signal and treated as structural, not informational.",
      "evidence": "UEC had put skew indicating overpriced downside protection, but the skew was likely driven by institutional hedging of uranium price exposure rather than genuine bearish sentiment. The post-earnings crash was driven by operational disappointment (zero revenue, cost pressures), not the reversal of put positioning.",
      "applicability": "Applies to all commodity-linked names (uranium, copper, lithium, oil) where institutional holders hedge commodity price exposure via options. Does NOT apply to pure-play companies with no commodity exposure where skew reflects genuine directional views.",
      "confidence": 3
    },
    {
      "id": "L-2026-06-19-008",
      "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call",
      "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z",
      "outcome_context": "loss",
      "category": "smart_money",
      "pattern": "In cybersecurity names during AI-capex peaks, executive sales (even Rule 10b5-1) at prices significantly below current spot should be weighted more heavily than analyst upgrades. Insiders are closer to the data and may be positioning for a plateau.",
      "evidence": "EVP Klarich sold at $249-$261 on May 22, well below the $281.69 entry price. The scout dismissed this as 'routine diversification' but did not sufficiently weight it as an anti-signal. The stock subsequently dropped 3.4% from entry, validating the caution.",
      "applicability": "Applies to cybersecurity and AI-infrastructure names during periods of elevated analyst optimism. Does NOT apply when insiders are buying or when sales are at prices near current spot.",
      "confidence": 4
    }
  ],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "TRU",
    "call": "SELL",
    "confidence": 5,
    "score": -8,
    "factors": {
      "below_200dma": "-2",
      "below_50dma": "-1",
      "momentum_down": "-1 (-22.6%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (43.5)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (9d ago)",
      "broken_below_high": "-2 (-33.5% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "SELL (score -8) · 12-1 mom -22.6% · RSI 43.5 · below_both · -33.5% from high",
    "last_close": 65.96,
    "one_month_ago_close": 69.47,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 89.81,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -22.65,
    "rsi_14": 43.5,
    "ma_stack": "below_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -33.52,
    "period_high": 99.22,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 69.45,
      "fair": 75.32,
      "bull": 114.1,
      "bear_return_pct": 5.3,
      "fair_return_pct": 14.2,
      "bull_return_pct": 73,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 72,
        "target_mean": 89.7619,
        "target_high": 108,
        "analyst_count": 21
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:53.528Z"
  }
}