{
  "symbol": "TG",
  "company": "Tredegar Corporation",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:53.349Z",
  "event_count": 7,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-15T20:00:30.702Z",
      "stage": "scout",
      "outcome": "failed",
      "reason": null,
      "trigger": "[insider_cluster_universe] 3 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · at least one open-market P/S trade verified",
      "source": "idle_hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-11T18:55:41.265Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Material insider selling, broken technicals, and a value-trap valuation profile override any cheap multiples; the dossier presents a clear bearish setup with poor liquidity that does not support a viable trade structure.",
      "score": 2,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 0,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 0
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-11-TG.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-11T18:55:06.994Z",
      "summary": "Three Gottwald family members (William M., James T., and John D.) filed Form 4s in the last 14 days — but every transaction was a SALE (code=S), not a purchase. The controlling family collectively sold ~$295K of stock over two selling episodes on June 9-10 ($8-$8.135 range, ~36k shares total) and a smaller tranche June 4-5 (~3.7k shares at $7.76-$8). This is the exact opposite signal from what triggered this investigation. Q1 FY2026 results (May 8) showed strong revenue growth (+13% YoY to $186.5M) driven by Bonnell Aluminum pricing gains, but High Performance Films remains under pressure from tariff costs and soft demand. The stock is down ~15% YTD, trading below both the 50DMA ($8.60) and 200DMA ($8.12), with bearish put-bias in options flow.",
      "verdict": "bearish_setup",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 16,
      "walltime_min": 10,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-11-TG.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-04T17:50:20.667Z",
      "summary": "The investigation found an interesting CEO open-market purchase (1,000 shares at $7.55 on 05/21/2026) but it is overwhelmed by sustained, multi-person selling from the controlling Gottwald family (10%+ owners/directors William M. and John D.) who have collectively sold approximately 39,700+ shares totaling ~$324K across May-June 2026 at prices ranging $7.77-$8.35. The stock is deeply depressed (~25% below its early-May high of $10.35) on tariff pressures, softening demand in High Performance Films, and cyclical end-market weakness — yet the Gottwalds are reducing rather than accumulating. Forward P/E of ~7x is not dramatically cheap for a small-cap industrial facing margin pressure. No clear catalyst exists beyond August earnings (08/07). Options market is essentially non-functional (July 17 expiry has only one call strike with OI=9, no puts available), precluding income strategies.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 22,
      "walltime_min": 10,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-04-TG.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-26T17:54:00.316Z",
      "summary": "{\"symbol\":\"TG\",\"company\":\"Tredegar Corporation\",\"investigation_summary\":\"The investigation trigger was met (3 Form 4 filings in 14 days), but all recent insider transactions are either small RSU vestings under code A or Gottwald family selling out of long-standing trust positions — there is zero open-market P-code buying from officers or directors. Tredegar posted Q1 2026 revenue of $186.5M (+13% ",
      "verdict": "unparseable",
      "tool_calls": 22,
      "walltime_min": 14,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-26-TG.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-18T18:00:19.574Z",
      "summary": "Three Form 4 filings were indeed filed May 18, but all three (William M. Gottwald, John D. Gottwald, James T. Gottwald) show SELLING transactions (code S), not purchases — approximately $199K in aggregate sales at prices from $8.00-$8.40 vs current price of $7.50. The investigation trigger's 'P/S trade verified' language is misleading here: the Form 4 cluster reflects coordinated selling by the controlling Gottwald family, not buying. Separately, a Director (David Parks) made a small open-market purchase of $14K at $8.21 in April and a Corporate Controller received restricted stock (not open-market). The broader picture shows a financially stressed aluminum extrusions and films manufacturer with high customer concentration (HP Films: top 4 customers = 88% of segment revenue), modest FCF, and elevated debt-to-equity, now trading near the bottom of its 52-week range after declining ~28% from April highs.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 18,
      "walltime_min": 14,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-18-TG.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-14T20:32:40.217Z",
      "summary": "Tredegar Corporation operates two industrial segments: Aluminum Extrusions (Bonnell Aluminum, ~86% of revenue) and High Performance Films (~14%). The investigation was triggered by a cluster of 3+ Form 4 filings in the past 14 days — but parsing those filings reveals that ALL significant transactions were SALES by the Gottwald controlling family (William M., John D., and James T. Gottwald each sold ~25,355 shares at $8.617 on 05/12/2026 and ~4,866 shares at $8.305 on 05/13/2026), totaling approximately $782K in coordinated selling. The 'purchases' that triggered the alert were director equity grants (code A) at a fixed $8.21 exercise price — standard compensation with no discretionary conviction signal from management below market. The Q1 2026 earnings showed strong Y/Y EPS growth, but the stock dropped ~20% post-report despite this, suggesting investor skepticism or guidance concerns. Valuation is cheap on an absolute basis (forward P/E ~7.3x, EV/EBITDA ~5.6x), yet no mispricing catalyst is apparent given tariff headwinds in aluminum extrusions and severe customer concentration risk in the films segment.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 24,
      "walltime_min": 17,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-14-TG.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "TG",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 1,
    "score": -2,
    "factors": {
      "below_200dma": "-2",
      "below_50dma": "-1",
      "momentum_down": "-1 (-10.2%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (49)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (10d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-22.5%)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score -2) · 12-1 mom -10.2% · RSI 49 · below_both · -22.5% from high",
    "last_close": 8.02,
    "one_month_ago_close": 7.98,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 8.89,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -10.24,
    "rsi_14": 49,
    "ma_stack": "below_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -22.51,
    "period_high": 10.35,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 7.25,
      "fair": 8.28,
      "bull": 11.9,
      "bear_return_pct": -9.7,
      "fair_return_pct": 3.2,
      "bull_return_pct": 48.4,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": null,
        "target_mean": null,
        "target_high": null,
        "analyst_count": null
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:53.335Z"
  }
}