{ "symbol": "SE", "company": "Sea Limited", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.448Z", "event_count": 9, "events": [ { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-28T10:47:10.364Z", "summary": "Investigation triggered by 3 Form 4s in 14 days — but all were pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 S (sell) transactions from BVI entities controlled by COO Ye Gang, CPO Chen Jingye, and CCO Wang Yanjun. Zero open-market P (purchase) trades confirmed. The Q1 2026 beat ($7.31B revenue +43% YoY; $0.81 EPS vs $0.77 estimate) provided a short-term bounce but the stock remains ~51% off its 52-week high and below its 200dma. Valued at forward P/E of 18x against ~25-30% expected FY26 EPS growth — not obviously cheap versus comps, not obviously expensive. T. Rowe Price disclosed 6.1% ownership in a May 2026 13G (as-of March 31). No material mispricing detected, no discrete insider buy thesis exists, and the macro backdrop (emerging markets, FX headwinds, regulatory risk in Southeast Asia) keeps the risk premium elevated. The trigger was all sales from pre-set plans — not conviction buys.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 8, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-28-SE.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-26T10:41:59.822Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Active anti-signal gates (insider selling >$20M under 10b5-1 plans, convertible dilution, and accounting flags) override any structural opportunity. The stock trades below its 200DMA with zero institutional/insider buying and no sustained earnings momentum, making both long and income structures unattractive at current levels.", "score": 10, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 0, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 5, "technical": 5 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-26-SE.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-26T10:40:59.744Z", "summary": "Sea Limited is a Southeast Asia + Latin America technology conglomerate (Shopee e-commerce, Garena gaming, Monee fintech) with $25B revenue and 47% YoY top-line growth. The investigation trigger was a cluster of Form 4 filings in the past 14 days — but upon full text review, every single transaction across all ~50 filings uses S-code (sale) under pre-established Rule 10b5-1 trading plans adopted August-September 2025. No open-market P-code purchases exist anywhere in this cluster. The filing volume represents synchronized scheduled selling by three senior executives (COO Ye Gang, CPO Chen Jingye, CCO+GC Wang Yanjun) around the Q1 2026 earnings release — not discretionary insider conviction. This fundamentally changes the smart-money signal: it is a red flag, not a green one.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 24, "walltime_min": 11, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-26-SE.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-21T10:18:01.162Z", "summary": "All 25 Form 4 filings in the last 14 days are SELL transactions (code 'S') executed via pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans adopted August-September 2025 — zero open-market purchases from any insider. The investigation trigger was met by count of recent filings, but not by actual insider buying intent. Q1 FY26 was genuinely strong: $7.1B revenue (+46.6% YoY), EPS beat at $0.81 vs $0.77 estimate, and first-ever $1B adjusted EBITDA. Forward P/E of 16.7x with 30%+ growth is not expensive on an absolute basis. But the stock has collapsed ~56% from its $199 high to $86 — a valuation compression that reflects genuine concerns: three consecutive EPS misses prior to Q1, margin pressure as management leans into growth investments in Shopee logistics and AI, Garena's secular decline, macro headwinds across Southeast Asia, and persistent insider selling via scheduled plans. No compelling asymmetric mispricing with catalyst exists.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 21, "walltime_min": 7, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-21-SE.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-20T10:29:44.201Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Unresolved anti-signal gates (dilution and concentration overhang) combined with zero insider buying, illiquid options, and no qualifying fundamental catalyst make this dossier structurally unfit for publication.", "score": 5, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 0, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 5 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-20-SE.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-20T10:28:47.716Z", "summary": "Sea Limited has seen heavy Form 4 activity in the past 30 days — but every single transaction is an S-code (sale) executed pursuant to pre-adopted Rule 10b5-1 plans adopted by three senior insiders (COO Ye Gang, CPO Chen Jingye, CCO Wang Yanjun). There are zero open-market P-code purchases among any executive. The investigation trigger was technically met in terms of filing count but the content is uniformly bearish — scheduled selling by insiders who collectively hold enormous indirect stakes via BVI entities. Despite this insider-selling backdrop, fundamentals are strong: Q1 2026 revenue +46.6% YoY to $7.1B, first-ever $1B adjusted EBITDA quarter, forward P/E of only 17x against 47% revenue growth. The stock is down ~55% from its September 2025 high and still well below the 200-DMA (131.75). Analyst consensus target is $140, implying 61% upside.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 23, "walltime_min": 9, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-20-SE.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-18T10:19:38.200Z", "summary": "Sea Limited reported exceptional Q1 FY2026 results (record Shopee GMV, first $1B adj. EBITDA, +46.6% revenue YoY) yet the stock trades at ~$88 — a 55% haircut from its September 2025 high of $199.30. The trigger was a cluster of Form 4 filings in the past 14 days: however, upon full inspection every single one is SELLING under Rule 10b5-1 pre-planned trading programs adopted months ago (August-September 2025), not discretionary open-market purchases. Three senior executives — CPO/Shopee (Chen Jingye), CCO & GC (Wang Yanjun), and COO/Director (Ye Gang) — all sold small tranches in the $88-$99 range around May 12-15, 2026. This is a bearish signal for near-term smart-money conviction despite strong fundamentals. Options flow shows net put bias (-36% dollar bias) with notable OTM puts at $150/$160 strikes. Forward P/E of ~17x against 47% revenue growth and an analyst consensus target of ~$140 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to fundamentals, but no insider is buying on conviction.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 21, "walltime_min": 14, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-18-SE.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-14T10:41:02.298Z", "summary": "The investigation trigger was 25 Form 4 filings over ~30 days from multiple insiders (COO Ye Gang, CCO/GC Wang Yanjun, CPO Chen Jingye). However, every single transaction code across all examined filings is S — sale-only — executed pursuant to pre-established Rule 10b5-1 trading plans adopted August-September 2025. There are zero open-market P (purchase) transactions in the 90-day window. This is a false-positive trigger: high Form 4 volume driven by systematic selling, not insider conviction buying. On fundamentals, Q1 FY26 delivered strong revenue ($7.1B, +47% YoY) with record Shopee GMV and Garena's best quarter since 2021, but EPS missed on margin pressure from elevated cost-of-revenue and credit provisions in Monee. The stock has already surged ~20% off the March 2026 low of $78 into earnings (Aug 11) — it is not at a compelling entry after that move. Forward P/E ~18x is acceptable for Southeast Asia's dominant e-commerce platform, but the 52-week high was $199 and current price ($93.5) represents a 53% decline from that peak with no clear near-term re-rating catalyst beyond earnings.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 19, "walltime_min": 7, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-14-SE.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-12T12:46:44.272Z", "summary": "Sea Limited (SE) triggered on the [insider_cluster_universe] filter — 3+ Form 4s in 14 days. However, every single one is an 'S' sale code under Rule 10b5-1 pre-planned trading programs adopted Aug/Sep 2025. Three C-suite insiders (COO Gang Ye, CCO/GC Yanjun Wang, CPO Jingye Chen) have been methodically selling ~$2M+ per person in small lots since late April at $85-$92, with no open-market purchases of any kind across the full 25-filing sample. Q1 FY2026 results (reported today, May 12) showed a revenue beat ($7.10B vs $6.77B est, +38.6% YoY) but EPS miss ($0.67 vs $0.70 est). The stock is -57% from its September 2025 52-week high of $199.30 and below both the 50-day and 200-day MAs with RSI at 46 (neutral-slugish). Forward P/E of 17.3x looks cheap vs MELI's 24.3x, but there is no mispricing edge that a near-term catalyst is forcing the market to recognize.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 24, "walltime_min": 16, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-12-SE.scout.debug.json" } ], "lessons": [ { "id": "L-2026-06-19-001", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z", "outcome_context": "win", "category": "structure", "pattern": "For zero-revenue resource companies, earnings reports are operational milestone updates, not financial performance events. Market reaction is typically delayed 3-7 days as analysts digest operational details (mine start-up, production targets, inventory decisions). Use longer-dated options (7-14 DTE) or calendar spreads instead of tight DTE spreads that expire before the full reaction.", "evidence": "UEC had zero Q3 revenue and a wider loss, but stock closed flat on June 3 earnings day. The -25% crash occurred June 9-10, 6 days after the June 5 option expiry. The put spread expired ITM only because the stock eventually reached $12.01, not because of the earnings reaction itself.", "applicability": "Applies to all pre-revenue or zero-revenue resource/mining companies where operational milestones (mine start-up, production ramp, permitting) drive valuations. Does NOT apply to established producers with consistent revenue where earnings reactions are immediate.", "confidence": 4 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-002", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z", "outcome_context": "win", "category": "anti_signal", "pattern": "In low-float, high-short-interest commodity names (~10%+ shorts), pre-earnings positioning can cause large directional spikes (10-15%) that distort entry pricing and skew readings. These spikes are driven by gamma positioning and short-covering, not fundamental information. Enter spreads AFTER the pre-event spike resolves, not before.", "evidence": "UEC spiked +13.7% from $13.59 to $15.44 on June 2 (day before earnings) on positioning rather than information. This would have made any put spread entry more expensive and skewed the put/call ratio analysis. The subsequent crash was driven by fundamentals, not the reversal of positioning.", "applicability": "Applies to commodity-linked names with short interest >10% and market cap <$10B entering earnings. Does NOT apply to large-cap names with low short interest where positioning is more efficient.", "confidence": 5 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-003", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z", "outcome_context": "win", "category": "other", "pattern": "When directional thesis is correct but the move occurs after option expiry, the trade is a technical win but a strategic loss. The capital is locked up during the delayed reaction period, and theta decay continues. For binary operational events, consider selling the put spread leg to finance a longer-dated call/put if the directional conviction is high but timing is uncertain.", "evidence": "UEC put spread returned +203% because the stock eventually dropped below $12.50, but the move occurred 4-6 days after expiry. If the stock had stayed above $12.50 at expiry and then dropped later, the spread would have expired worthless despite the correct directional thesis. The thesis was right but the structure timed the wrong window.", "applicability": "Applies to all event-driven option trades where the catalyst is an operational milestone rather than a financial metric. Does NOT apply to pure financial catalysts (Fed decisions, regulatory approvals) where reactions are typically immediate.", "confidence": 4 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-004", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z", "outcome_context": "win", "category": "smart_money", "pattern": "In commodity-linked names with institutional holders, put skew is often driven by hedging activity (portfolio insurance, commodity price exposure) rather than directional bearishness. Elevated put skew in these names should be discounted as a signal and treated as structural, not informational.", "evidence": "UEC had put skew indicating overpriced downside protection, but the skew was likely driven by institutional hedging of uranium price exposure rather than genuine bearish sentiment. The post-earnings crash was driven by operational disappointment (zero revenue, cost pressures), not the reversal of put positioning.", "applicability": "Applies to all commodity-linked names (uranium, copper, lithium, oil) where institutional holders hedge commodity price exposure via options. Does NOT apply to pure-play companies with no commodity exposure where skew reflects genuine directional views.", "confidence": 3 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-005", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z", "outcome_context": "win", "category": "catalyst", "pattern": "For pre-revenue mining companies, the key earnings catalyst is operational progress (mine start-up, production targets, permitting status), not EPS. EPS misses are expected and priced in. Market reaction is driven by whether operational milestones are met or delayed, not financial performance. Score catalysts based on operational milestone significance, not EPS surprise potential.", "evidence": "UEC had zero Q3 revenue and a wider loss, but the real market driver was the Burke Hollow mine start-up announcement and inventory preservation decision. The stock reacted to these operational details, not the EPS miss. The earnings call highlighted 'strategic advancements' and 'production growth' as the key takeaways.", "applicability": "Applies to all pre-revenue or early-stage mining/exploration companies. Does NOT apply to established producers where EPS and revenue are the primary drivers.", "confidence": 5 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-006", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z", "outcome_context": "loss", "category": "anti_signal", "pattern": "When RSI(14) > 80 AND the stock has run up >40% in 180 days entering earnings, the probability of mean-reversion is high regardless of implied move richness. The direction_evidence score should be reduced by at least 5 points, and the trade should be avoided unless there is a strong contrarian catalyst.", "evidence": "PANW had RSI=80.5 and was +80% in 90 days at entry. The stock sold off ~8.5% from the pre-earnings peak despite a positive EPS surprise. The thesis assumed the implied move was rich, but the technical exhaustion was the dominant factor.", "applicability": "Applies to any earnings play where RSI > 80 and the stock has run up >40% in the prior 180 days. Does NOT apply when the stock is near its 200-DMA or has been consolidating.", "confidence": 5 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-007", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z", "outcome_context": "loss", "category": "structure", "pattern": "If the options chain has null bid/ask data across all strikes, the implied move calculation is unreliable. The scout should flag this as a fatal flaw and reject the trade — do not proceed with assumed implied move metrics.", "evidence": "The scout noted bid/ask = 0/null across the June 5 chain, making ATM straddle pricing impossible. Yet the thesis proceeded using an assumed 11.2% implied move from a third-party source. This introduced significant error into the magnitude_edge calculation.", "applicability": "Applies to any options-based trade where the implied move is a key input. Does NOT apply to trades that do not rely on implied move calculations.", "confidence": 5 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-008", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z", "outcome_context": "loss", "category": "smart_money", "pattern": "In cybersecurity names during AI-capex peaks, executive sales (even Rule 10b5-1) at prices significantly below current spot should be weighted more heavily than analyst upgrades. Insiders are closer to the data and may be positioning for a plateau.", "evidence": "EVP Klarich sold at $249-$261 on May 22, well below the $281.69 entry price. The scout dismissed this as 'routine diversification' but did not sufficiently weight it as an anti-signal. The stock subsequently dropped 3.4% from entry, validating the caution.", "applicability": "Applies to cybersecurity and AI-infrastructure names during periods of elevated analyst optimism. Does NOT apply when insiders are buying or when sales are at prices near current spot.", "confidence": 4 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-009", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z", "outcome_context": "loss", "category": "catalyst", "pattern": "Historical EPS beats do not guarantee positive stock reaction if the stock has already run up into the event. The 'beat' is priced in, and any 'in-line' result is a disappointment. The catalyst_was_real score should be reduced when the pre-event run-up exceeds 20%.", "evidence": "PANW had consistent EPS beats (+7.3%, +4.4%, +9.9%, +6.6%) but the stock dropped ~8.5% from the pre-earnings peak. The market had already priced in the positive surprises, and the actual beat was not enough to sustain the higher price.", "applicability": "Applies to any earnings play where the stock has run up >20% into the event. Does NOT apply when the stock has been consolidating or declining into the event.", "confidence": 4 }, { "id": "L-2026-06-19-010", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z", "outcome_context": "loss", "category": "technical", "pattern": "RSI(14) > 80 is a valid overbought signal that should reduce the technical_was_useful score and trigger a mean-reversion warning. In the scoring methodology, technical signals should not be dismissed as 'Tier 3 confirmation' when they indicate extreme conditions.", "evidence": "The scout correctly identified RSI=80.5 as an anti-signal but the Analyst still published the trade with a score of 66. The DA correctly flagged the 'sell-the-news' probability, but the score did not reflect this risk adequately.", "applicability": "Applies to any trade where RSI > 80 or < 20. Does NOT apply in strong trending regimes where RSI can remain extended.", "confidence": 4 } ], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "SE", "call": "SELL", "confidence": 2, "score": -3, "factors": { "below_200dma": "-2", "above_50dma": "+1", "momentum_strong_down": "-2 (-43.8%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (55.4)", "macd_above_signal": "+1", "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (2d ago)", "broken_below_high": "-2 (-53.3% from high)" }, "summary": "SELL (score -3) · 12-1 mom -43.8% · RSI 55.4 · above_50_only · -53.3% from high", "last_close": 91.79, "one_month_ago_close": 88.96, "twelve_month_ago_close": 158.29, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -43.8, "rsi_14": 55.4, "ma_stack": "above_50_only", "from_period_high_pct": -53.29, "period_high": 196.5, "price_targets": { "bear": 101, "fair": 106.79, "bull": 225.97, "bear_return_pct": 10, "fair_return_pct": 16.3, "bull_return_pct": 146.2, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 101, "target_mean": 140.49571, "target_high": 195, "analyst_count": 28 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.437Z" } }