{
  "symbol": "ROKU",
  "company": "Roku, Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.217Z",
  "event_count": 7,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-15T16:21:37.486Z",
      "stage": "analyst",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "This is a capped-upside M&A arb setup (~11% to the $160 deal price) with a 6–12 month timeline and meaningful regulatory/financing risks. The dossier flags anti-signals (dilution, concentration), and the source-backed upside falls well below the 20% threshold required for publication. No asymmetric long or viable income structure justifies the risk/reward profile.",
      "trigger": "[insider_cluster_universe] 9 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · at least one open-market P/S trade verified",
      "source": "idle_hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-15T16:21:37.447Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "This is a capped-upside M&A arb setup (~11% to the $160 deal price) with a 6–12 month timeline and meaningful regulatory/financing risks. The dossier flags anti-signals (dilution, concentration), and the source-backed upside falls well below the 20% threshold required for publication. No asymmetric long or viable income structure justifies the risk/reward profile.",
      "score": 13,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 0,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 8
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-15-ROKU.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-15T16:20:40.077Z",
      "summary": "Fox Corporation announced a definitive agreement on June 15, 2026 to acquire Roku for $160/share in a cash-and-stock deal valued at ~$22B enterprise value. ROKU surged from ~$116 pre-announcement (June 11) to $143.66 on the announcement day. The investigation reveals that the Form 4 cluster trigger was almost entirely routine equity compensation activity — directors converting RSUs (M-code, price=$0), not open-market purchases; no genuine director-level P-purchases in the past 90 days. One officer (Mustafa Ozgen) sold 10,194 shares at $144 via a 10b5-1 plan on June 12 and President Charles Collier sold ~20K net shares on June 4 also via 10b5-1 plans — both routine scheduled selling. The deal structure offers limited upside from current levels (~11% to $160) but introduces significant regulatory, financing, and deal-break risk. At forward P/E of ~40x and EV/EBITDA of ~50x, the stock is not cheaply valued absent the deal.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 16,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-15-ROKU.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-13T02:35:21.959Z",
      "summary": "Roku surged +20% on June 12, 2026 after Bloomberg reported it is exploring strategic options including a potential full sale to a U.S. media company. The investigation trigger — a cluster of Form 4 filings in the past 14 days — proved entirely routine: every transaction coded M (RSU vesting), F (tax withholding), or S (10b5-1 scheduled sales). Zero open-market purchases (P codes) were found across any insider filing in this window. The CEO and CFO sold shares exclusively via pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans at $117-$144, not discretionary buys. Financially, Roku is improving — Q1 FY2026 EPS of $0.57 beat a $0.35 estimate and the company achieved its first full-year profitability in FY2025 ($201M net income on ~22% revenue growth). But forward P/E of 40x and EV/EBITDA of 50x leave almost no margin of safety at these levels, especially for a stock that doubled YTD before last Friday's news.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 21,
      "walltime_min": 19,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-13-ROKU.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-13T01:53:50.115Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Stock is at an all-time high following a 20% gap-up on unconfirmed M&A rumors with zero insider conviction buys and elevated speculative options flow; active anti-signals (pump/dilution) and lack of valuation mispricing make this a low-conviction chase rather than a structured opportunity.",
      "score": 23,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 3
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-13-ROKU.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-03T23:23:55.237Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "No insider buying, elevated valuation (~35x Fwd P/E), and inverted put skew indicate no clear asymmetric edge; unquantified dilution risk and concentration flags outweigh the near-term earnings catalyst.",
      "score": 24,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 1,
        "catalyst": 13,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 3
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-03-ROKU.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-03T23:23:27.854Z",
      "summary": "The investigation trigger (8 Form 4s in 14 days) was thoroughly examined. Every single recent filing is a routine equity compensation event — RSU vestings (M-codes), option exercises, and shares sold pursuant to pre-existing 10b5-1 plans by executives Charles Collier (President, Roku Media) and Gilbert Fuchsberg (President, Subscriptions). There are zero open-market purchases from any insider in the entire look-back window. The 'cluster' is mechanical scheduling of already-disclosed trading plans, not a directional conviction signal. Q1 FY2026 earnings showed strong 64% EPS surprise ($0.57 actual vs $0.347 est), with platform revenue up 28% YoY to $1.13B and the company now profitable on both an operating and net income basis. However, valuation is full: forward P/E of ~35x with EV/EBITDA of ~42x in a sector where media companies trade at deep discounts. The stock is near 52-week highs, IV is elevated (~50%), and no new catalyst beyond the Q2 earnings date (July 30) is visible.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 24,
      "walltime_min": 17,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-03-ROKU.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "ROKU",
    "call": "BUY",
    "confidence": 5,
    "score": 7,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (49.5%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (57.8)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (5d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-6.0%)"
    },
    "summary": "BUY (score +7) · 12-1 mom 49.5% · RSI 57.8 · above_both · -6.0% from high",
    "last_close": 135.05,
    "one_month_ago_close": 125.08,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 83.69,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 49.46,
    "rsi_14": 57.8,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -5.99,
    "period_high": 143.66,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 100.56,
      "fair": 136.84,
      "bull": 170,
      "bear_return_pct": -25.5,
      "fair_return_pct": 1.3,
      "bull_return_pct": 25.9,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 103,
        "target_mean": 151.68182,
        "target_high": 170,
        "analyst_count": 22
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.212Z"
  }
}