{
  "symbol": "RGTI",
  "company": "Rigetti Computing, Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.200Z",
  "event_count": 11,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-20T10:37:09.607Z",
      "stage": "scout",
      "outcome": "unparseable",
      "reason": null,
      "trigger": "[form4_cluster] 5 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · 2 real trades",
      "source": "hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-20T10:37:09.580Z",
      "summary": "{\"symbol\":\"RGTI\",\"company\":\"Rigetti Computing, Inc.\",\"investigation_summary\":\"The 5-Form-4 trigger is almost entirely noise: the CEO (Kulkarni) and CTO (Rivas) were exercising vested options at sub-$2 strike prices and selling shares to cover exercise costs and taxes — this is not new-money conviction buying. Directors received annual RSU grants vesting in 2027, also no cash outlay. One director (",
      "verdict": "unparseable",
      "tool_calls": 25,
      "walltime_min": 25,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-20-RGTI.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-13T14:31:37.458Z",
      "summary": "The investigation reveals that the Form 4 cluster triggering this analysis consists overwhelmingly of noise — RSU grants (at $0 exercise price) to directors and routine sell-to-cover transactions for tax withholding on vesting equity. The two 'real trades' flagged by the pipeline are CTO David Rivas exercising options and immediately selling 499,328 shares at ~$25.40 (a net SELL), and CEO Subodh Kulkarni exercising options and simultaneously selling shares to cover exercise costs — both consistent with routine compensation management during a price spike, NOT conviction open-market buys. The CHIPS Act $100M non-binding LOI is a legitimate catalyst but carries dilution risk at the 15% discounted implied pricing formula. Revenue remains ~$4.4M/quarter against a near-zero gross margin and massive R&D burn ($20M/quarter). No genuine mispricing exists — the stock trades on quantum computing narrative premium with no path to profitability in sight.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 26,
      "walltime_min": 23,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-13-RGTI.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-11T13:49:40.290Z",
      "summary": "Rigetti Computing trades at $19.31 (spot ~$19.47), sitting just above its 50 DMA ($19.08) but meaningfully BELOW the 200 DMA of $23.61 — giving a 27.9% MOS vs. 200DMA on any CSP strike below that level. The stock has pulled back sharply from its 52w high of $56.34 (-65.7%) following a quantum-sector pump-and-dump in Q4 2025, and RSI at 44.8 is neutral (neither oversold nor overbought). Earnings for Q2 2026 print approximately early-August — AFTER all near-term expiry windows, so no IV crush concern there. The $100M CHIPS Act LOI ($72M net after the 15% discount on share issuance) announced May 21 provides a fundamental floor. The wheel-hunter signal flagged an extraordinary annualized yield of ~82.8% on the Jul-17 17P — but CRITICAL WARNING: the options chain data returned zero bid/ask values for all strikes, indicating either stale or illiquid market-making in RGTI's near-dated options. OI is present (2,082 at $17P) confirming real interest, yet without verifiable current bids/asks, spread quality cannot be confirmed. If filled at last traded price ($1.35 on the 17P), annualized yield easily clears the 15% threshold; but market-makers may be wide. The IV rank is unknown (tool did not return IV rank percentile explicitly) but ATM IV in the chain shows anomalous low readings (~3-12%) inconsistent with a speculative quantum name that has averaged $39M/day in volume — another sign of data quality issues at the market-maker level rather than genuine compressed vol.",
      "verdict": "no_setup",
      "confidence": 2,
      "tool_calls": 13,
      "walltime_min": 7,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-11-RGTI.wheel.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-08T13:41:18.011Z",
      "summary": "RGTI is a sub-$7B quantum computing company with -5.9x operating margins, negative FCF, and declining revenues ($10.8M → $7.1M YoY). The stock has run +85% over the past year on CHIPS Act funding speculation but trades 10.7% below its 200DMA — technically neutral rather than extended. Earnings risk is clear: next print likely Q2 2026 (~Aug), well outside a July expiry window. The options chain shows deeply illiquid contracts with bid=0 and ask=0 across every strike at Jul-10, Jul-17, and Jul-24 expiries — meaning the $19P (OI 8935) and $20P (OI 13,604) trades visible in aggregate data are OTC/dark pool transactions where real execution spreads cannot be verified. The annualized yield of ~111% on a CSP is a theoretical calculation against premium collected; actual fills will incur significant slippage that could cut the effective yield by half or more. IV appears modest (6–12% implied) rather than elevated relative to realized vol regime for this name, and IV rank cannot be reliably estimated given zero visible bid-ask on any listed contract.",
      "verdict": "no_setup",
      "confidence": 2,
      "tool_calls": 11,
      "walltime_min": 4,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-08-RGTI.wheel.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-05T08:29:45.734Z",
      "summary": "Investigation triggered by a cluster of 5 Form 4 filings in 14 days — but detailed review reveals this is predominantly selling activity (CTO Rivas exercised options and sold ~$12.7M at $25.40 avg; CEO Kulkarni exercised options and sold ~$2.6M net at $26.23/$24.38 averages), not conviction open-market purchases. The CHIPS Act LOI for up to $100M is a real catalyst but already priced in after the stock surged +46% in May alone from ~$16 to $24. At an $8B market cap against ~$10M TTM revenue (EV/Revenue ~760x, forward P/E negative), there is no traditional mispricing — this is purely sentiment and narrative driven. The fundamental case for asymmetry fails: the stock is near its 52w high, IV is elevated on the recent volatility but chain data shows very wide bid-ask spreads suggesting illiquid options, and the smart-money signal is actually a bearish counter-indicator given insider selling at these levels.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 24,
      "walltime_min": 15,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-05-RGTI.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-29T07:44:01.183Z",
      "summary": "The investigation trigger cited three Form 4 filings in 14 days, but upon detailed review of filing text, all three transactions were SELLING activity — not purchases. The CFO sold 3,682 shares (sell-to-cover RSU taxes), the CTO sold 18,759 shares (sell-to-cover RSU taxes), and a Director exercised and sold 50,000 warrants under a pre-adopted 10b5-1 plan from March 2025. This is not smart-money buying; it is standard executive compensation settlement. Rigetti recently surged ~48% on $100M in CHIPS Act quantum funding (May 2026), trading at an extreme forward P/E of -133x with deeply negative EBITDA, FCF burn of ~$6.2M/quarter, and a market cap of ~$8.98B that prices in commercial-scale quantum computing revenue years before any meaningful top-line exists.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 18,
      "walltime_min": 15,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-29-RGTI.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-22T08:16:10.594Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Four active anti-signal gates (going concern, structural dilution, accounting-driven earnings, government concentration) and deeply negative fundamentals override the CHIPS Act catalyst. The equity-structured funding and zero insider conviction make this a speculative trap, not an investable setup.",
      "score": 8,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 5,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 3
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-22-RGTI.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-22T08:15:41.348Z",
      "summary": "Rigetti Computing announced a $100 million CHIPS Act LOI with the US Department of Commerce on May 20-21, 2026 — a significant government endorsement of its superconducting quantum computing program. The stock surged +30.6% to $22.04 on the news in heavy volume (144M+ shares). However, the stock is deeply unprofitable (forward P/E of -108), trades at a ~690x EV/revenue multiple on TTM revenues of only $10M, and has burned cash consistently. The equity issuance structure (DOJ receives discounted shares) implies dilution for existing holders. Insiders received option/RSU grants in March 2026 but filed tax-related sales rather than open-market buys — no conviction-level insider purchasing signal exists. The stock is now ~62% below its October 2025 high of $58.15 and has been in a volatile descending channel since that peak, making it range-bound with elevated IV rather than an asymmetric long.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 25,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-22-RGTI.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-15T12:02:57.536Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Extreme valuation disconnect ($6.4B cap vs ~$10M revenue), negative earnings, and active anti-signal gates (warrant dilution and accounting distortions) render this a speculative trap rather than a tradable setup. The market's bearish pricing is justified by deteriorating fundamentals and lack of smart-money conviction.",
      "score": 5,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 2,
        "catalyst": 0,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 3
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-15-RGTI.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-15T12:02:24.071Z",
      "summary": "Rigetti is a pre-profit pure-play quantum computing company trading at an $6.4B market cap with only ~$10M TTM revenue (down 34% YoY). The stock has collapsed ~66% from its October 2025 all-time high of ~$58 to current $19, driven by sector rotation out of speculative names and skepticism over near-term quantum monetization. Q1 FY2026 showed strong sequential revenue acceleration ($4.4M vs $1.47M YoY) but the stock fell on the print because forward guidance implied slowing growth. The company has ~$569M in cash (massive relative to burn), no debt, and recently launched its 108-qubit Cepheus-1 system — but the fundamental disconnect between valuation ($6B cap vs $7-10M revenue) and speculative narrative is extreme. No insider open-market purchases were detected in the past 90 days; all recent Form 4s relate to RSU vesting/exercises, not directional bets by insiders.",
      "verdict": "bearish_setup",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 17,
      "walltime_min": 14,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-15-RGTI.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "RGTI",
    "call": "SELL",
    "confidence": 1,
    "score": -3,
    "factors": {
      "below_200dma": "-2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (91.7%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (50.2)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (11d ago)",
      "broken_below_high": "-2 (-62.2% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "SELL (score -3) · 12-1 mom 91.7% · RSI 50.2 · above_50_only · -62.2% from high",
    "last_close": 21.28,
    "one_month_ago_close": 22.04,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 11.5,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 91.65,
    "rsi_14": 50.2,
    "ma_stack": "above_50_only",
    "from_period_high_pct": -62.23,
    "period_high": 56.34,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 15.91,
      "fair": 23.54,
      "bull": 64.79,
      "bear_return_pct": -25.2,
      "fair_return_pct": 10.6,
      "bull_return_pct": 204.5,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 15.91,
        "target_mean": 29.2425,
        "target_high": 40,
        "analyst_count": 12
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:52.194Z"
  }
}