{
  "symbol": "RARE",
  "company": "Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:51.847Z",
  "event_count": 3,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-05-18T23:08:59.030Z",
      "stage": "cooldown",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "recent analyst:skip 0.0h ago < cooldown 168h, no material change",
      "trigger": "[insider_cluster_universe] 5 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · at least one open-market P/S trade verified",
      "source": "idle_hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-18T23:08:58.832Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Active anti-signal gates (going concern, dilution, accounting) combined with $800M annual cash burn, negative FCF, and no near-term catalysts make this a high-risk biotech with insufficient edge for publication.",
      "score": 3,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 2,
        "catalyst": 0,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 1
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-18-RARE.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-18T23:08:38.904Z",
      "summary": "Ultragenyx is a rare-disease biotech that has cratered 78% over five years to near the bottom of its 52-week range. The trigger — three Form 4 filings in 14 days — turns out to be RSU vest+sell activity, NOT open-market purchases (code A for grants, S for tax-withholding sales; no P-codes found). There are ZERO confirmed CEO/CFO/Director open-market buys in the lookback window. However, two high-impact catalysts exist: UX111 PDUFA Sep 19, 2026 and DTX401 PDUFA Aug 23, 2026 — both gene therapies for fatal pediatric diseases with no approved alternatives. Analyst consensus sits at $51.52 vs current $24.19 (~113% upside). The company is cash-rich ($534M liquid), guiding to $730-760M revenue in 2026 and profitability in 2027, but burns ~$800M/year in operating cash flow. The stock presents a bounded asymmetric setup around the PDUFA events: binary on approval, but heavily discounted given five-year price destruction.",
      "verdict": "promising",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 24,
      "walltime_min": 31,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-18-RARE.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "RARE",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 2,
    "score": 1,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_down": "-2 (-36.2%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (69.6)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (7d ago)",
      "broken_below_high": "-2 (-30.6% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +1) · 12-1 mom -36.2% · RSI 69.6 · above_both · -30.6% from high",
    "last_close": 28.76,
    "one_month_ago_close": 23.71,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 37.16,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -36.19,
    "rsi_14": 69.6,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -30.6,
    "period_high": 41.44,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 25,
      "fair": 35.11,
      "bull": 96,
      "bear_return_pct": -13.1,
      "fair_return_pct": 22.1,
      "bull_return_pct": 233.8,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 25,
        "target_mean": 52.05263,
        "target_high": 96,
        "analyst_count": 19
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:51.843Z"
  }
}