{
  "symbol": "PRIM",
  "company": "Primoris Services Corporation",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:51.769Z",
  "event_count": 4,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-24T04:49:36.780Z",
      "stage": "scout",
      "outcome": "failed",
      "reason": null,
      "trigger": "sector_sweep top-2 · score 21 · options:bullish 4 whale calls, strong · options:dollar bias 87% · 8-K:1 in 14d · forward P/E 14.6",
      "source": "sector_sweep"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-21T00:17:36.023Z",
      "summary": "PRIM is a $5.5B infrastructure construction and maintenance company (Utilities + Energy segments) that has undergone a violent derating — collapsing from $205 to ~$101 over six weeks after a severe Q1 2026 earnings miss driven by execution failures in solar projects, combined with a downward revision to full-year EBITDA guidance. The stock sits well below its 50-DMA and 200-DMAs (~$135), RSI(14) is 38 — deeply oversold but with no confirmed reversal signal. Forward P/E of ~17x is reasonable relative to construction sector peers (~20-25x), but the earnings trajectory has deteriorated sharply: Q1 EPS missed by 57%, forward full-year estimates reflect continued YoY decline, and management flagged specific execution risks in renewable projects that may persist. Insiders have been net sellers (CLO Perisich liquidated ~$3.7M at $125-$130 in May 2026), while director compensation grants represent no conviction signal. There is no identified near-term catalyst beyond the Q2 earnings date (~August 3, 2026). The stock's collapse appears to be a rational repricing of execution risk rather than a mispricing — and with revenue declining YoY, margins compressing, and guidance cut, there is insufficient evidence that current levels represent durable intrinsic value divergence.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 41,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-20-PRIM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-05T00:44:28.728Z",
      "summary": "PRIM is a mid-cap infrastructure services company (Utilities + Energy) that suffered a severe -50% correction in May 2026 after reporting Q1 2026 earnings 30% below consensus and cutting full-year EBITDA guidance, attributing the miss to execution failures on solar projects. CEO Vadlamudi made a notable $1M open-market purchase at ~$128 (May 27), but was accompanied by heavy selling from CLO Perisich (~29,707 shares) and Director David Lee King (~20,000 shares). The stock has bounced off May lows ($101) to $127 but remains well below the analyst target mean of $143. Valuation is not compelling — forward P/E of 21.5x in a down-growth environment with -60% earnings decline YoY in Q1 and guidance cuts create real fundamental stress.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 19,
      "walltime_min": 13,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-05-PRIM.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-10T10:12:57.271Z",
      "summary": "Primoris is a mid-cap infrastructure-construction company ($5.7B market cap) that experienced an extraordinary 49% single-session crash on May 6, 2026 after reporting Q1 EPS of $0.59 vs. $0.84 consensus (-30% miss) and cutting full-year guidance — its stock went from ~$203 to ~$101 intraday before recovering modestly. The Energy segment (roughly half revenue) is under significant pressure: solar project timing shifts, fewer new project starts in renewables, and a challenging fixed-price contract environment drove the earnings miss and forward guide reduction. Q3 FY2025 had shown record results (+55% EPS beat), so this is an acute deterioration rather than long-term structural decline. Management flagged project-timing headwinds as temporary but gave no specific recovery timeline for Energy backlog conversion. The stock now trades at 17.2x forward earnings — cheap relative to its historical range and peer comps (PWR at ~25x) — but the forward P/E is depressed by near-term earnings cuts, not necessarily sustainable mispricing. No open-market insider purchases were found; Form 4 activity was entirely equity compensation vesting or mandatory dividend reinvestment. Options flow shows a bullish directional bias on low put/call ratio of 0.11 and new call positioning at $170 strike (62% OTM), but this is speculative rather than informed-signal. No AI-specific catalyst exists — the trigger label appears to be a watchlist-category artifact, as Primoris does zero AI infrastructure business.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 17,
      "walltime_min": 15,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-10-PRIM.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [
    {
      "id": "L-2026-06-19-005",
      "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-UEC-earnings-put-spread",
      "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:33.535Z",
      "outcome_context": "win",
      "category": "catalyst",
      "pattern": "For pre-revenue mining companies, the key earnings catalyst is operational progress (mine start-up, production targets, permitting status), not EPS. EPS misses are expected and priced in. Market reaction is driven by whether operational milestones are met or delayed, not financial performance. Score catalysts based on operational milestone significance, not EPS surprise potential.",
      "evidence": "UEC had zero Q3 revenue and a wider loss, but the real market driver was the Burke Hollow mine start-up announcement and inventory preservation decision. The stock reacted to these operational details, not the EPS miss. The earnings call highlighted 'strategic advancements' and 'production growth' as the key takeaways.",
      "applicability": "Applies to all pre-revenue or early-stage mining/exploration companies. Does NOT apply to established producers where EPS and revenue are the primary drivers.",
      "confidence": 5
    }
  ],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "PRIM",
    "call": "SELL",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": -5,
    "factors": {
      "below_200dma": "-2",
      "below_50dma": "-1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (39.0%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (32.7)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (0d ago)",
      "broken_below_high": "-2 (-58.1% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "SELL (score -5) · 12-1 mom 39.0% · RSI 32.7 · below_both · -58.1% from high",
    "last_close": 84.95,
    "one_month_ago_close": 110,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 79.14,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 38.99,
    "rsi_14": 32.7,
    "ma_stack": "below_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -58.14,
    "period_high": 202.92,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 85,
      "fair": 117.44,
      "bull": 233.36,
      "bear_return_pct": 0.1,
      "fair_return_pct": 38.2,
      "bull_return_pct": 174.7,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 85,
        "target_mean": 135.41667,
        "target_high": 188,
        "analyst_count": 12
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:51.764Z"
  }
}