{ "symbol": "NTLA", "company": "Intellia Therapeutics, Inc.", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:50.826Z", "event_count": 15, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-06-19T07:13:06.414Z", "stage": "analyst", "outcome": "skip", "reason": "earnings_in_window", "trigger": "wheel_hunter top-1 · score 79 · IV ~93% · ann yield ~74.5% on $14 P (28d) · OI 1070 · MOS vs 200DMA -4.0%", "source": "wheel_hunter" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-19T07:13:06.408Z", "skip": true, "reason": "earnings_in_window", "score": 0, "debug_path": null }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-19T07:13:06.358Z", "summary": "NTLA is a clinical-stage CRISPR gene-editing biotech with $2.2B market cap and ~93% IV rank — extremely elevated premium environment driven by recent HAE Phase 3 HAELO catalyst (+23% single-day surge on June 15-16). The stock has run from ~$8 (52w low, Nov 2025) to $15.67 near 52-week highs on Lonvo-z (NTLA-2002 for hereditary angioedema) data published in NEJM and presented at EAACI 2026. IV is rich across the board: ATM 30-day ~97%, ATM 90-day ~82%. This creates a genuine premium edge for wheel sellers — but the Aug 6, 2026 earnings date falls INSIDE both near-term (July 17) and mid-term (Sep 18) expiry windows, making IV crush risk non-trivial. The queue's $14P on July-17 yields ~74% annualized at DTE=28, well above the 15% threshold with OI=1070 and solid liquidity — but assignment at $14 would mean owning a near-52w-high CRISPR stock with binary Phase 3 pipeline risk. If willing to take the earnings/IV-crush trade-off, the premium is real. Alternatively, September expiries (Sep 18 / Oct 16) push past earnings cleanly.", "verdict": "csp_setup", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 12, "walltime_min": 8, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-19-NTLA.wheel.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-18T13:43:05.919Z", "summary": "NTLA is a clinical-stage CRISPR gene-editing biotech that surged +23% on June 16 after additional Phase 3 HAELO data for Lonvo-z in hereditary angioedema (HAE), with 89-91% attack reduction. The stock trades at $15.85, above both the MA50 ($13.76) and MA200 ($13.47) — a strong technical setup. However, this investigation is REJECTED on three non-negotiable grounds: (1) NEXT EARNINGS ARE August 6, 2026 — exactly inside the July 17 expiry window (~28 DTE), creating catastrophic IV crush risk; September 18 (92 DTE) also has earnings in its window. No clean 25-50 DTE expiry exists without earnings overlap. (2) Options liquidity is severely degraded: bid/ask data returns zeros across all strikes for both July and September expiries, meaning market makers have pulled back or the data feed cannot resolve actual spreads — this is an illiquid contract environment unsuitable for premium collection. (3) IV is inflated by the mid-June Phase 3 catalyst event (June 13 publication in NEJM), which will normalize post-event; selling now captures elevated but quickly decompressing volatility, not structurally rich premium. The wheel hunter's ~97% annualized yield on the $14P is technically real ($1.05 / $15.85 * 365/28 ≈ 136%) but misrepresents execution reality in an illiquid, earnings-contaminated contract.", "verdict": "no_setup", "confidence": 3, "tool_calls": 10, "walltime_min": 6, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-18-NTLA.wheel.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-18T02:57:35.122Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score of 18 falls well below the 45 threshold for the asymmetric risk class. The dossier flags active dilution and low liquidity anti-signals that cannot be dismissed, shows zero open-market insider buying, and lacks traditional financial quality metrics for a pre-revenue biotech. The thesis relies entirely on an unproven regulatory catalyst without the smart-money confirmation or valuation anchor required to clear the publication bar.", "score": 18, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 4, "catalyst": 8, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 6 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-18-NTLA.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-18T02:56:20.028Z", "summary": "Intellia is a clinical-stage CRISPR gene-editing biotech whose lead candidate lonvo-z (formerly NTLA-2002) for hereditary angioedema produced exceptional Phase 3 HAELO data in June 2026 — an 89% reduction in on-demand-treated attacks and 91% reduction in moderate/severe attacks versus placebo, with zero serious adverse events. The rolling BLA was initiated April 2026 with anticipated US approval/launch in H1 2027. Smart money is ABSENT: all recent Form 4 transactions were RSU/option grants to directors at $0 cost basis (code A), not open-market cash purchases. Stock has run from ~$8 lows (November 2025) to ~$15 post-catalyst, still well below the year-high of $28 and analyst mean target of $27. Options flow is strongly bullish with 76% net call directional bias. The core tension: a genuine high-probability regulatory catalyst exists in a 6-12 month window, but zero insider buying signal tempers conviction.", "verdict": "promising", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 21, "walltime_min": 16, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-18-NTLA.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-15T13:43:01.159Z", "summary": "NTLA is a clinical-stage CRISPR gene-editing biotech (market cap ~$1.86B) with positive cash position ($376M) and no debt concerns. The wheel-hunter flagged an apparently extraordinary setup: $12 CSP at 2026-07-17 yielding ~122% annualized on paper. However, investigation reveals multiple fatal red flags that eliminate this as a real income trade:\n\n1) EARNINGS CONFLICT: Next earnings are 2026-08-06 — the July 17 expiry (31 DTE from June 15) is only 20 calendar days before the Q2 print. A CSP sold now would be holding through the earnings window, exposing the position to IV crush and directional gap risk on Phase 3 data readout for Lonvo-z.\n\n2) OPTIONS ILLIQUIDITY: The options chain returns bid=0 / ask=0 across most strikes for both July and September expiries. Every contract has zero open interest except a handful of OTM puts with thin OI. This is not a real tradeable instrument — spreads are effectively infinite at any size beyond micro-lots.\n\n3) IV DATA ANOMALY: ATM implied volatility reads as ~6-12% depending on strike, which contradicts the queue's 6.25% figure and appears internally inconsistent with typical biotech single-stock risk pricing near a major catalyst (Phase 3 HAE data released June 13, NEJM publication June 15). Biotech at this stage of development near an NDA/regulatory event should carry IV in the 80-120%+ range — not 6%.\n\n4) TECHNICAL SETUP: Stock is below both MA50 ($13.63) and MA200 ($13.40), with MACD bearish crossover 3 bars ago, RSI neutral at 51, and last close ~$13.31 vs 52w high of $27.98 (-52% from peak). This is a downtrend — CSP assignment on weakness is a real risk.\n\n5) BINARY CATALYST: HAELO Phase 3 data was released June 13 (positive), published in NEJM June 15, creating a recent price catalyst that inflates IV near-term and makes the options chain even less reliable for systematic premium collection.", "verdict": "no_setup", "confidence": 2, "tool_calls": 11, "walltime_min": 7, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-15-NTLA.wheel.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-11T00:14:30.201Z", "summary": "The investigation reveals that the Form 4 cluster triggering this dossier consists entirely of RSU vestings and equity compensation grants (all code A transactions at $0 exercise price from March 2026) — not open-market cash purchases. There are zero verified P/S trades in the 90-day window, so the smart-money signal is structurally misleading. The stock has strong near-term catalysts: Phase 3 HAELO data for Lonvo-Z presented at EAACI (June 13-16, 2026), rolling BLA submission initiated with H1 2027 launch target, and Q2 earnings on August 6, 2026. However, NTLA is a pre-revenue-loss company with no profitability path visible in the near term; EV/EBITDA and forward P/E are both meaningless due to negative EBITDA and net income.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 16, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-10-NTLA.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-06T05:26:49.309Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score 32 falls below the 45-point threshold for asymmetric risk class. Active anti-signal gates for dilution and litigation are material, and combined with zero insider buying, negative quality metrics, and elevated binary-event IV, the dossier lacks the fundamental backing and risk/reward asymmetry required for publication.", "score": 32, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 3, "catalyst": 18, "mispricing": 5, "quality": 0, "technical": 6 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-06-NTLA.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-06T05:25:58.629Z", "summary": "NTLA is a clinical-stage CRISPR gene editing biotech with two lead programs: lonvo-z for hereditary angioedema (HAE) and nex-z for ATTR amyloidosis. On April 27, 2026, the company announced that its Phase 3 HAELO trial met all primary endpoints with an 87% attack reduction vs placebo (p<0.0001), initiating a rolling BLA submission targeting completion in H2 2026 and potential US launch in H1 2027 — making this the first-ever positive Phase 3 readout for in vivo CRISPR gene editing. The stock trades ~52% below its 52-week high despite this landmark catalyst, with analyst consensus targets near $26 (vs ~$13-14 current price). Nex-z faces a partial FDA clinical hold on its ATTR-CM indication. ATM share dilution is ongoing; the company raised ~$33M in Q1 via at-the-market offerings. The stock has recovered strongly from sub-$9 levels but remains dramatically below peak, creating a potential asymmetric setup anchored by an unprecedented Phase 3 win and near-term regulatory catalyst.", "verdict": "promising", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 18, "walltime_min": 24, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-06-NTLA.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-30T04:41:52.452Z", "skip": true, "reason": "anti_signals: price near 52-week high — minimal pullback cushion on CSP assignment basis, biotech binary risk: FDA regulatory filing catalyst timing creates non-trivial downside for gene-editing name, net bearish options flow bias (-23.6% dollar) on Jul-17 despite elevated put OI at $14/$13", "score": 0, "debug_path": null }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-30T04:41:52.382Z", "summary": "NTLA is a clinical-stage CRISPR gene-editing biotech ($1.97B market cap) trading at $14.07 — currently near its 52-week high of $14.28 (Oct 2025). Price sits +6% above the 200DMA ($13.28), RSI is neutral at 55, and MACD just gave a bullish cross yesterday. The stock has been range-bound between $12–$15 for 3 months after a massive October 2025 spike from Phase III data. IV is extremely elevated — ATM puts/calls are quoting ~88% IV on the Jul-17 expiry, consistent with the scanner's ~89% estimate. Earnings on August 6, 2026 fall AFTER Jun-18 and Jul-17 expiries (✓ no IV crush risk for both targets) but BEFORE Sep-18 (✗ eliminates that window). The $13 CSP at Jul-17 collects $1.77 mid-premium ($1.55 bid / $2 ask) on a strike 7.6% below spot; annualized yield is ~19.5% — well above the 15% threshold and assignment basis of $11.23 creates genuine MOS vs fundamental support near $12–13 range. Top OI strikes at Jul-17 are $18 call (5,947 OI) and $14/$13 puts (859/805 OI) — a bullish lean consistent with Phase III pipeline momentum for nexiguran ziclumeran. The primary anti-signal is the stock's proximity to 52-week high (no pullback cushion) plus biotech-specific binary risk on FDA timelines, though no material SEC 8-K events were flagged beyond normal quarterly reporting.", "verdict": "csp_setup", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 12, "walltime_min": 5, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-30-NTLA.wheel.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-28T13:32:33.474Z", "summary": "NTLA is a biotech gene-editing company (CRISPR/Cas9) with IV ~90-95th percentile after recent clinical catalyst volatility. The wheel scanner flagged an apparently attractive 77% annualized yield on $13 P/49DTE, but deeper analysis reveals this is largely IV expansion from pipeline risk, not sustainable premium. The stock trades ~8% below its 200DMA at $27.86 and well below the 52-week high of ~$40+. RSI is neutral (~46), suggesting no oversold entry on price basis. Liquidity is marginal (OI=805 on flagged contract vs thousands for liquid names). Earnings expected in May 2025 — if DTE >45, earnings may fall inside expiry window depending on exact timing. The elevated IV is a double-edged sword: premium exists but reflects binary event risk and gene-editing pipeline uncertainty rather than typical equity volatility. Position sizing must account for biotech-specific drawdown risk. A strangle or CSP setup could work IF earnings are confirmed outside the DTE window, with strikes well below current price to ensure assignment basis is at a level you'd accept owning shares.", "verdict": "no_setup", "confidence": 3, "tool_calls": 0, "walltime_min": 1, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-28-NTLA.wheel.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-15T23:42:24.082Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Anti-signal gates (dilution and going-concern flags) and negative profitability metrics render this dossier unfit for publication. The market is correctly pricing the binary execution risk and capital needs, leaving no clear asymmetric edge or viable income structure.", "score": 15, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 5 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-15-NTLA.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-15T23:41:57.461Z", "summary": "NTLA is a clinical-stage CRISPR gene editing company whose lead program lonvo-z (HAE) achieved positive Phase 3 HAELO data in April 2026 and initiated rolling BLA submission. The stock has already run from ~$8 lows to $13-14 on that news, now sitting roughly 52% below its 52-week high of $28.25. An FDA clinical hold on the ATTR program (nex-z) has been partially lifted with patient screening resumed as of May 2026 — a positive but unresolved risk remains in the background. No insider open-market purchases were found; CEO and CFO received RSU/option grants only, which are compensation events not directional conviction bets. The company is deeply loss-making (FCF burn ~$235M/year) with no product revenue. IV is elevated (~80%+ ATM). Given that the stock has already made its major Phase 3 run, analyst consensus target ($26.65) represents an optimistic scenario requiring BLA approval and commercial launch success — not a near-term base case. A range-bound income thesis (covered calls / strangles ahead of earnings and BLA catalysts) fits better than a directional long.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 18, "walltime_min": 36, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-15-NTLA.scout.debug.json" } ], "lessons": [], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "NTLA", "call": "HOLD", "confidence": 3, "score": 4, "factors": { "above_200dma": "+2", "above_50dma": "+1", "momentum_up": "+1 (29.3%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (58.5)", "macd_above_signal": "+1", "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (5d ago)", "broken_below_high": "-2 (-45.5% from high)" }, "summary": "HOLD (score +4) · 12-1 mom 29.3% · RSI 58.5 · above_both · -45.5% from high", "last_close": 15.25, "one_month_ago_close": 12.37, "twelve_month_ago_close": 9.57, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 29.26, "rsi_14": 58.5, "ma_stack": "above_both", "from_period_high_pct": -45.5, "period_high": 27.98, "price_targets": { "bear": 8, "fair": 18.57, "bull": 95, "bear_return_pct": -47.5, "fair_return_pct": 21.8, "bull_return_pct": 523, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 8, "target_mean": 26.63158, "target_high": 95, "analyst_count": 19 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:50.818Z" } }