{
  "symbol": "MARA",
  "company": "Marathon Digital Holdings Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.795Z",
  "event_count": 6,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-22T22:39:48.906Z",
      "stage": "scout",
      "outcome": "failed",
      "reason": null,
      "trigger": "[8k_recent] 1 recent 8-K(s) in last 7 days, latest filed 2026-06-22",
      "source": "hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-19T07:21:55.618Z",
      "summary": "MARA Holdings is a Bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure play with ~$5.4B market cap trading at $14.22, sitting 13.4% above its 200DMA ($12.54). IV is historically rich (~84th percentile) providing elevated premium on paper, but the setup fails decisively on earnings timing: next print falls July 28, 2026 — inside every viable CSP/strangle expiry window. Any contract sold at or before July 24 (the last pre-earnings Friday expiry) will be subject to IV crush and directional risk from a binary event in an extremely volatile crypto-miner. MARA's recent Q earnings beat was +26% surprise, but prior quarter saw -29.9% miss; the stock has demonstrated 20%+ post-earnings swings both directions. The options flow data corroborates extreme bearish skew (put/call ratio 12.83x with a massive $125K whale put block at $10.50 — 5008 contracts at deep OTM strike), confirming informed money is positioning for downside, not premium collection. MARA also carries heavy balance sheet risk ($2.46B debt vs $514M cash) and negative FCF, making assignment deeply unattractive even if the bull case materializes.",
      "verdict": "no_setup",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 10,
      "walltime_min": 4,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-19-MARA.wheel.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-15T21:29:43.815Z",
      "summary": "MARA is a Bitcoin mining and digital infrastructure company pivoting into AI/HPC compute with ~$5.3B in liquidity from bitcoin sales and 1.9 GW of global capacity across 18 data centers. The investigation found zero open-market insider purchases over the past 90 days — all Form 4 activity (CEO Fred Thiel, CFO Salman Khan, GC Zabi Nowaid) consisted entirely of scheduled selling under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans or tax withholding on RSUs. This directly contradicts the bullish call flow signal. The stock is deeply unprofitable with negative forward P/E and negative EV/EBITDA; it burns ~$530M in FCF annually against only $514M cash (though bitcoin sales provided a liquidity cushion). A Starwood JV for AI/HPC development on select sites was announced Feb 2026, but the company has not yet generated material revenue from this initiative. Q2 earnings are July 28 — the most concrete near-term catalyst. The options flow is directionally bullish but appears speculative rather than informed.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 21,
      "walltime_min": 20,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-15-MARA.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-29T08:55:08.248Z",
      "summary": "The investigation triggered by a Form 4 cluster reveals that all recent insider activity is tax-withholding (F codes) and pre-scheduled 10b5-1 selling — there are zero open-market purchase transactions from any MARA insider in the past 90 days. The trigger was a false signal caused by executives filing routine disclosures for RSU vesting events, not discretionary buying. Business fundamentals are deeply challenged: Q1 2026 showed $174.6M revenue (vs $213.9M YoY), driven primarily by a $1.26B net loss from $1.0B in negative fair-value adjustments on Bitcoin holdings. The company is mid-transformation from pure-play Bitcoin miner to AI/HPC data center infrastructure, but faces severe debt load ($2.3B long-term notes payable vs $4.95B total assets), cash burn, and an accumulating deficit now exceeding $2.6B.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 27,
      "walltime_min": 36,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-29-MARA.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-21T00:10:40.978Z",
      "summary": "MARA is an energy and digital infrastructure company undergoing a major strategic pivot from pure-play Bitcoin mining toward AI/HPC data center operations. The investigation trigger cited 3 Form 4 filings in the last 14 days — however, upon detailed reading of each filing text, all recent transactions were F-codes (tax withholding on RSU vestings) or S-codes (pre-scheduled Rule 10b5-1 sales by executives). No open-market P-code purchases were found across any Form 4 in the dataset. The company is deeply unprofitable with negative forward earnings, operates a highly volatile balance sheet tied to Bitcoin fair-value accounting, has ~$2.2B in long-term debt, and its AI/HPC pivot remains pre-revenue. A pending $1.5B acquisition of Long Ridge (485 MW gas plant) adds execution risk while diluting the Bitcoin mining narrative that originally attracted investors.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 29,
      "walltime_min": 31,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-20-MARA.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-14T13:35:52.578Z",
      "summary": "MARA is a large-cap Bitcoin mining proxy trading near $11.60 with 85%+ annualized yield flagged on a $12 CSP (34 DTE). IV rank is elevated at ~52-58% percentile, which clears our sub-40 rejection threshold. The stock has recovered strongly from its 2022 bear market lows but sits ~6% above the 200DMA and ~45% below its 52-week high. Earnings are approximately May 7-8 (Q1 print) — need to verify if any candidate expiry falls inside that window, which would be a hard rejection. The stock is highly correlated with BTC price action; a sustained crypto bear drag could cause assignment at an unfavorable basis. Liquidity is excellent on major expirations (OI >2000 across strikes), and bid-ask spreads are tight for the front-month chain. The fundamental concern is that Marathon burns cash relative to its revenue scale, but it has survived multiple Bitcoin cycles and maintains a $3B+ market cap — sufficient for a wheel candidate if premium justifies the risk.",
      "verdict": "no_setup",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 0,
      "walltime_min": 0,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-14-MARA.wheel.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "MARA",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 3,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_flat": "0 (-8.9%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (58.2)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (1d ago)",
      "broken_below_high": "-2 (-35.6% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom -8.9% · RSI 58.2 · above_both · -35.6% from high",
    "last_close": 14.7,
    "one_month_ago_close": 13.55,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 14.88,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -8.94,
    "rsi_14": 58.2,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -35.64,
    "period_high": 22.84,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 7,
      "fair": 15.04,
      "bull": 30,
      "bear_return_pct": -52.4,
      "fair_return_pct": 2.3,
      "bull_return_pct": 104.1,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 7,
        "target_mean": 17.571,
        "target_high": 30,
        "analyst_count": 10
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.791Z"
  }
}