{
  "symbol": "LEA",
  "company": "Lear Corporation",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.426Z",
  "event_count": 3,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-05-18T13:41:51.780Z",
      "stage": "cooldown",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "recent analyst:skip 0.0h ago < cooldown 168h, no material change",
      "trigger": "[insider_cluster_universe] 9 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · at least one open-market P/S trade verified",
      "source": "idle_hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-18T13:40:54.731Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 60 threshold due to zero smart-money clustering, weak quality metrics (ROIC 12.2%, net debt/EBITDA 2.47x), and an active anti-signal gate for customer concentration (>30% revenue tied to top OEMs). The range-bound verdict lacks a mispricing or catalyst edge to justify an income structure over standard portfolio hedging.",
      "score": 18,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 8,
        "mispricing": 5,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 5
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-18-LEA.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-18T13:40:14.247Z",
      "summary": "LEAR triggers on three recent Form 4 filings, but all three are director equity compensation (RSU vesting + new grants at $0 exercise price) — not open-market purchases. This is a false-positive trigger against the stated signal of 'open-market P/S trade verified.' The stock has had an exceptional run (+18.8% YTD, approaching 52w high of $142.84) following Q1 EPS beat and record adjusted quarterly earnings. At forward P/E of ~7.74x with strong FCF yield (~9%), valuation is reasonable but not compelling at this level. No insider (CEO/CFO/director) has made a discretionary open-market purchase in the visible filing window.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 10,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-18-LEA.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [
    {
      "id": "L-2026-06-19-006",
      "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call",
      "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z",
      "outcome_context": "loss",
      "category": "anti_signal",
      "pattern": "When RSI(14) > 80 AND the stock has run up >40% in 180 days entering earnings, the probability of mean-reversion is high regardless of implied move richness. The direction_evidence score should be reduced by at least 5 points, and the trade should be avoided unless there is a strong contrarian catalyst.",
      "evidence": "PANW had RSI=80.5 and was +80% in 90 days at entry. The stock sold off ~8.5% from the pre-earnings peak despite a positive EPS surprise. The thesis assumed the implied move was rich, but the technical exhaustion was the dominant factor.",
      "applicability": "Applies to any earnings play where RSI > 80 and the stock has run up >40% in the prior 180 days. Does NOT apply when the stock is near its 200-DMA or has been consolidating.",
      "confidence": 5
    }
  ],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "LEA",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 3,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (49.7%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (45.1)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (11d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-7.2%)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom 49.7% · RSI 45.1 · above_both · -7.2% from high",
    "last_close": 136.68,
    "one_month_ago_close": 138.43,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 92.49,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 49.67,
    "rsi_14": 45.1,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -7.25,
    "period_high": 147.36,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 103.15,
      "fair": 140.02,
      "bull": 179,
      "bear_return_pct": -24.5,
      "fair_return_pct": 2.4,
      "bull_return_pct": 31,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 130,
        "target_mean": 147.92857,
        "target_high": 179,
        "analyst_count": 14
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.423Z"
  }
}