{ "symbol": "LDOS", "company": "Leidos Holdings, Inc.", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.508Z", "event_count": 5, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-05-31T21:45:49.359Z", "stage": "analyst", "outcome": "skip", "reason": "Score 37 falls well below the 45 threshold. While valuation is deeply discounted and near-term contract awards provide catalysts, the dossier lacks smart-money accumulation, shows damaged technicals, and flags structural customer concentration alongside elevated post-merger leverage. It does not clear the high-conviction bar for publication.", "trigger": "watchlist rotation · core · defense-coldwar", "source": "watchlist" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-31T21:45:49.337Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score 37 falls well below the 45 threshold. While valuation is deeply discounted and near-term contract awards provide catalysts, the dossier lacks smart-money accumulation, shows damaged technicals, and flags structural customer concentration alongside elevated post-merger leverage. It does not clear the high-conviction bar for publication.", "score": 37, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 23, "mispricing": 13, "quality": 0, "technical": 1 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-31-LDOS.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-31T21:44:52.025Z", "summary": "Leidos is a defense/government IT integrator with ~$17B in annual revenue that has been under severe pressure — down 32% YTD and 38% from its 52-week high of $205.77 as of May 31, 2026. The stock trades at just 9.69x forward earnings against a sector median around 18-22x for defense peers (L3Harris: 23x fwd; Booz Allen: ~24x), and 7%+ FCF yield. Multiple material catalysts are on the horizon: $10B State Department Evolve contract awarded in May 2026, a $2.7B U.S. Army hypersonic weapons production deal (May 2026) combining TPS + CHGB programs, Military OneSource re-selection through 2031, and an Entrust cybersecurity acquisition closed March 27, 2026 for $2.4B. Q1 FY2026 EPS beat by 7.6%. The analyst consensus target of $186 vs current ~$128 implies ~45% upside even after the recent bounce. However, the technical picture is damaged (below both 50DMA and 200DMA; RSI 38), there is a joint venture restructuring with Altaris creating uncertainty in SES/IA assets, debt jumped from $4.6B to $6.3B net of cash due to Entrust financing, and macro headwinds around DoD budget uncertainty persist.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 20, "walltime_min": 15, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-31-LDOS.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-09T01:25:00.934Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score of 35 falls well below the 50-point threshold for core names. Despite a deeply discounted valuation (9.9x Fwd P/E, 7.3% FCF yield) and strong ROIC (30.6%), the dossier shows zero insider accumulation, bearish options skew, and a stock trading far below its 50DMA. The concentration gate reflects standard defense contracting reality but is mitigated by the multi-year, inflation-adjusted nature of the $48B+ backlog; however, without insider accumulation or technical stabilization, timing risk is too high.", "score": 35, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 15, "mispricing": 15, "quality": 5, "technical": 0 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-09-LDOS.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-09T01:23:33.808Z", "summary": "Leidos reported a strong Q1 FY2026 (EPS $3.13 vs $2.91 estimate, +7.56% beat; revenue $4.44B) and raised full-year guidance by $500M on revenue and EPS on May 5 — yet the stock has been obliterated from its ~$205 52-week high to ~$130 (down ~37%). The disconnect between operational performance and price action is stark, but several structural factors argue against a pure long thesis at this moment: (1) no confirmed open-market insider buys in the past 90 days — all recent Form 4s are tax-withholding settlements or option exercises; (2) options flow shows put-skew with net directional bias toward puts and heavy OI concentration at $135/$140 strikes suggesting institutional hedging demand rather than directional conviction; (3) the stock is deeply oversold (RSI 21.3, below both its 50DMA by ~28 points), which creates timing risk for a long entry; (4) macro headwinds around DoD budget uncertainty and tariff concerns on government IT spending are real overhangs that haven't cleared. The most defensible structured thesis is a covered-call or CSP approach: the company is high-quality, backlog ($48B+) supports earnings stability, but the near-term technical damage means waiting for stabilization before deploying capital.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 21, "walltime_min": 15, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-09-LDOS.scout.debug.json" } ], "lessons": [], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "LDOS", "call": "SELL", "confidence": 3, "score": -7, "factors": { "below_200dma": "-2", "below_50dma": "-1", "momentum_down": "-1 (-19.2%)", "rsi_oversold": "+1 (20.1)", "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (4d ago)", "broken_below_high": "-2 (-46.8% from high)" }, "summary": "SELL (score -7) · 12-1 mom -19.2% · RSI 20.1 · below_both · -46.8% from high", "last_close": 106.11, "one_month_ago_close": 123.04, "twelve_month_ago_close": 152.23, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -19.17, "rsi_14": 20.1, "ma_stack": "below_both", "from_period_high_pct": -46.83, "period_high": 199.55, "price_targets": { "bear": 125, "fair": 138.93, "bull": 229.48, "bear_return_pct": 17.8, "fair_return_pct": 30.9, "bull_return_pct": 116.3, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 125, "target_mean": 178.26666, "target_high": 225, "analyst_count": 15 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.504Z" } }