{ "symbol": "JCI", "company": "Johnson Controls International plc", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.191Z", "event_count": 11, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-06-19T07:21:56.110Z", "stage": "cooldown", "outcome": "skip", "reason": "recent analyst:skip 22.4h ago < cooldown 168h, no material change", "trigger": "watchlist rotation · core · ai-buildout", "source": "watchlist" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-18T08:59:05.236Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Premium valuation (25x Fwd P/E vs ~18-20x sector median) and material insider selling negate any mispricing edge. IV is compressed/stale, ruling out income structures, and the dossier confirms the data-center upgrade thesis is already priced in.", "score": 20, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 10 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-18-JCI.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-18T08:58:20.875Z", "summary": "Johnson Controls is a high-quality industrial compounder undergoing an operational turnaround with a data-center thermal management angle that has attracted analyst upgrades (Wolfe to $171, UBS to $180). However, the Form 4 cluster trigger was misleading — all recent insider activity from March through June 2026 was selling by VP/President Americas Todd Grabowski (S-codes at $130-$146), not real open-market purchases. The new director RSU grant is standard board compensation. At ~25x forward P/E vs. a ~18-20x sector median, JCI is fully valued or slightly premium to peers, trading 3.7% below its all-time high on strong YTD momentum (+33%). No material mispricing exists; the upside case requires sustained execution and multiple expansion that is already priced in.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 27, "walltime_min": 57, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-18-JCI.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-11T05:17:44.589Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Scored 15/100 due to zero insider buying, lack of fundamental mispricing (trading at a premium 24.2x forward P/E), and active anti-signal gates. The AI/data-center narrative is already fully priced in by the market, leaving no identifiable edge for a long or income trade.", "score": 15, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 2, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 3 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-11-JCI.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-11T05:17:04.572Z", "summary": "JCI is a high-quality building-products and HVAC franchise with a data-center cooling narrative that has driven the stock to near-52w highs (+36% YTD). The Form 4 cluster trigger resolves into two recent filings: (1) VP Americas sold ~$263K of shares in open market on June 9 — minor selling, not conviction; (2) new director Irene Esteves received an RSU grant worth ~$137K — not an open-market purchase. Neither constitutes meaningful insider buy-side conviction. The stock trades at a rich forward P/E of 24.2x against a sector median around 18-20x, and the market is already pricing in the AI/data-center cooling thesis following UBS raising its target to $180 on June 2. Q2 EPS beat was +6.5% above consensus (routine). No material mispricing exists; the setup is fundamentally healthy but fully-valued with elevated implied vol supporting an income strategy.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 35, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-11-JCI.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-04T02:16:34.729Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score of 16 falls far below the threshold. JCI trades at all-time highs with a forward P/E of 25.6x and EV/EBITDA of 22.8x, leaving zero mispricing or margin of safety. The dossier flags active anti-signals (dilution overhang from the new VGI program, ongoing PFAS litigation, and high goodwill concentration) that invalidate the risk/reward. IV is moderate, not elevated enough to support an income structure, and the AI infrastructure narrative is already fully priced in with only ~1% upside to consensus.", "score": 16, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 6 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-04-JCI.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-04T02:15:53.003Z", "summary": "JCI is a high-quality building-systems and HVAC industrial at all-time highs (+39% YTD), powered by strong data-center cooling demand narrative, an AI infrastructure tailwind partnership (Armada modular data centers via Galleon Forge One), and consistent EPS beats. The company just completed its Alloy Enterprises thermal-management acquisition in May 2026 and hosted a well-received 'Going to Gemba Day' investor event June 1 that prompted UBS to raise its target to $180. However, the stock trades at a forward P/E of 25.65x with EV/EBITDA of 22.8x — rich relative to sector medians for an industrial name — and is only ~1% below its 52-week high. No open-market insider buys appear in recent Form 4s (most filings are equity-compensation vesting). The options flow shows a bullish directional bias but IV is moderate, not elevated enough to generate asymmetric premium. There is no material mispricing relative to intrinsic value: the upside appears priced in at current levels, and the near-term catalyst window (Q3 earnings July 28) is too short for an option structure with meaningful edge given where implied vol sits.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 16, "walltime_min": 22, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-04-JCI.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-22T04:15:49.917Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Heavy insider selling, full valuation, and weak technicals override the earnings/guidance catalyst; no clear income structure offers sufficient risk-adjusted return at current levels.", "score": 17, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 15, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 2 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-22-JCI.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-22T04:14:56.586Z", "summary": "The investigation reveals a company executing well operationally — strong Q2 FY26 beat with adjusted EPS up 45% YoY, revenue +8%, and full-year guidance raised — driven by accelerating data center cooling demand. However, the Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation is exclusively SALES (Todd Grabowski sold $622K at market on May 14; Lei Zhang Schlitz exercised options and sold ~$12.3M at market on May 8). No open-market insider purchases appear in the last 90 days across 25 filings reviewed. The stock is above its 200-day moving average but below both its 20- and 50-DMAs, with RSI at 41.5 (near oversold after recent pullback from $147 highs). Options flow shows a put/call ratio of 2.1 with net dollar bias bullish, suggesting hedging activity rather than directional bets. Valuation is full: forward P/E of ~23.8x against a high-quality industrial name that has been re-rated for AI/data center exposure.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 18, "walltime_min": 12, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-22-JCI.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-09T12:42:14.345Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Valuation has fully expanded to ~24.5x F/E on AI cooling hype with no residual mispricing, zero insider buying, and elevated anti-signal flags (litigation/concentration) that fail the core publication threshold.", "score": 22, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 2, "catalyst": 15, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 5 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-09-JCI.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-09T12:41:37.700Z", "summary": "Johnson Controls is a high-quality global building-systems leader (commercial HVAC, fire/security, controls) that recently executed two portfolio pivots — divestment of its residential HVAC business to Bosch and a partial EMEA security carve-out — leaving it leaner as a pure-play commercial and mission-critical building operator. The near-term catalyst is AI-driven data center cooling demand, which drove an 8% organic sales beat in Q2 FY26 and a raised full-year guide (EPS $4.65-4.85 vs prior $4.35-4.55). However, after the stock's +31.7% YTD run to near 52-week highs on that news, it is now at $139.52 — only 5.3% below the high of $147.32 — and forward P/E has re-rated from ~20x to ~24.5x, leaving little residual mispricing. No open-market insider buys in 90 days; all recent Form 4s were tax-related vesting/settlement dispositions (F/D codes). Options IV is modest (~30% ATM at June expiry) — not elevated enough for aggressive premium strategies but sufficient for structured income on pullbacks.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 17, "walltime_min": 30, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-09-JCI.scout.debug.json" } ], "lessons": [], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "JCI", "call": "BUY", "confidence": 3, "score": 6, "factors": { "above_200dma": "+2", "below_50dma": "-1", "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (30.8%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (48.1)", "macd_above_signal": "+1", "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (13d ago)", "near_52w_high": "+1 (-4.7% from high)" }, "summary": "BUY (score +6) · 12-1 mom 30.8% · RSI 48.1 · above_200_only · -4.7% from high", "last_close": 141.28, "one_month_ago_close": 135.47, "twelve_month_ago_close": 103.6, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 30.76, "rsi_14": 48.1, "ma_stack": "above_200_only", "from_period_high_pct": -4.68, "period_high": 148.21, "price_targets": { "bear": 103.75, "fair": 145.95, "bull": 180, "bear_return_pct": -26.6, "fair_return_pct": 3.3, "bull_return_pct": 27.4, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 111, "target_mean": 154.90475, "target_high": 180, "analyst_count": 21 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:49.188Z" } }