{ "symbol": "IRM", "company": "Iron Mountain Incorporated", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:48.997Z", "event_count": 13, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-06-21T18:21:10.391Z", "stage": "analyst", "outcome": "skip", "reason": "IRM trades at a steep premium (48x Fwd P/E, 24x EV/EBITDA) with negative FCF and high leverage, while insiders are actively selling and no open-market buyers exist. The dossier flags material anti-signals (dilution and customer concentration risk) that are unaddressed, and the valuation leaves no margin of safety for a core publication.", "trigger": "watchlist rotation · core · ai-buildout", "source": "watchlist" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-21T18:21:10.368Z", "skip": true, "reason": "IRM trades at a steep premium (48x Fwd P/E, 24x EV/EBITDA) with negative FCF and high leverage, while insiders are actively selling and no open-market buyers exist. The dossier flags material anti-signals (dilution and customer concentration risk) that are unaddressed, and the valuation leaves no margin of safety for a core publication.", "score": 25, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 5, "catalyst": 15, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 5 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-21-IRM.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-21T18:20:14.212Z", "summary": "Iron Mountain is a $38B specialty REIT operating physical records management and rapidly growing AI-adjacent data center colocation businesses. Q1 2026 showed strong results — revenue +21.6% YoY, EPS of $0.60 vs $0.52 estimate (+15.8% beat), data center revenue up 47% YoY to $252M with record leasing driven by AI infrastructure demand. Full-year guidance was raised. However, the stock is at/near all-time highs ($127.83 vs 52w high of $134.09), forward P/E is a rich ~48x, and insiders (CEO Meaney + EVP Kidd) have been selling via pre-planned 10b5-1 plans in May-June near current prices — not buying. Options flow is extremely bullish (PC ratio 0.10, call/dollar bias 98.6%) but this reflects market enthusiasm for the AI buildout story already priced in, not a mispricing. No insider open-market buys detected in 90d.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 19, "walltime_min": 44, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-21-IRM.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-13T08:00:39.822Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Valuation is stretched (47x FPE, -1.3% FCF yield) and material insider selling (-$4M) outweigh technicals. While the flagged dilution and concentration anti-signals are not material here (dilution stems from pre-planned executive option exercises; customer concentration is not severe), the rich multiple and lack of a clear income or asymmetric structural edge mandate a skip.", "score": 12, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 2, "catalyst": 5, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 5 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-13-IRM.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-13T07:59:36.612Z", "summary": "Iron Mountain is a data-center REIT with strong AI-driven momentum — its Data Center segment posted 47% YoY revenue growth in Q1 2026 and drove a full-year guidance raise. However, the investigation trigger (2 Form 4 filings in 14 days) resolved to pre-planned Rule 10b5-1 sales by the CEO (option exercise + systematic selling on June 1) and an EVP of Data Centers (Kidd also sold under a prior 10b5-1 plan adopted March 2025). There are zero open-market insider purchases in the recent window. The stock sits ~5% below its 52-week high at rich forward P/E 47.6x and EV/EBITDA 23.5x, with analyst consensus targets around $131–$140 but already largely priced in. Options flow is bullish-bias call-heavy (net $2.5M directional bias), but no whale OTM blocks or new positioning spikes qualify as genuine edge.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 16, "walltime_min": 9, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-13-IRM.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-05T07:15:09.615Z", "skip": true, "reason": "The dossier flags anti-signals for dilution and customer concentration, and the stock trades at a ~25% premium to its REIT sector median (48.7x fwd P/E) with negative FCF and 7x net debt/EBITDA. Insider buying is unconfirmed, IV is low (~12.5%), and the AI/data-center pivot is already widely priced in, leaving no clear edge or margin of safety.", "score": 15, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 5 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-05-IRM.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-05T07:14:38.738Z", "summary": "Iron Mountain is executing well on its data center pivot — Q1 2026 showed +46% data center revenue growth and record leasing. The company raised full-year guidance post-Q1 beat (+15.8% EPS surprise). However, the stock is already up ~56% YTD to a new 52-week high at forward P/E of ~48.7x. This is an extremely elevated valuation for a REIT (vs sector median ~38-40x) with negative FCF from data center buildout capex and $19.5B net debt. The trigger was 3 Form 4 filings clustered on June 1-2, 2026 — unable to confirm transaction codes due to EDGAR XML access issues, but timing post-Q1 beat suggests open-market purchases (P=buy). There is no clear mispricing; the question is whether a high-quality growth REIT deserves its premium in an environment where rates are sticky. The verdict reflects that IRM's fundamentals justify an income/CC thesis, not an asymmetric long at this level.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 30, "walltime_min": 56, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-05-IRM.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-29T05:19:07.513Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score falls well below the 45-point threshold due to rich valuation (47x Fwd P/E), negative FCF yield, and zero smart-money confirmation. The dossier's anti-signals for dilution and low liquidity trigger the hard skip gate, and no income structure clears the bar for publication or paper-tracking.", "score": 19, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 9 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-29-IRM.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-29T05:18:17.423Z", "summary": "Iron Mountain is a well-run specialty REIT benefiting from an AI-driven data center demand tailwind — Q1 2026 revenue rose 21.6% YoY and Data Center segment revenue surged ~47%. The stock has rallied +52.8% YTD to near all-time highs, and the forward P/E of 47.4x is materially above specialty REIT sector norms (~$20-25x). The Form 4 cluster that triggered this investigation — two filings in 14 days — was actually not open-market insider buying at all; both transactions were pre-planned Rule 10b5-1 sales (Daniel Borges S-sale on May 21, Walter Rakowich S-sale on May 20), both adopted months earlier. This is a critical anti-signal: the investigation trigger produced no smart-money confirmation. With the stock fully valued and near 52-week highs, IV elevated from AI/data-center momentum narrative, and insider selling underway, there is no asymmetric long-side setup. The case supports structured income only.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 17, "walltime_min": 12, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-29-IRM.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-22T04:26:37.545Z", "summary": "{\"symbol\":\"IRM\",\"company\":\"Iron Mountain Incorporated\",\"investigation_summary\":\"Iron Mountain has delivered strong Q1 2026 results (revenue +22% YoY, data center revenue +47%) and raised FY guidance to $7.83B-$7.93B, driven by AI infrastructure demand for its data centers. However, the stock is trading at a forward P/E of ~48x against a REIT specialty sector median of ~20-25x — a substantial premi", "verdict": "unparseable", "tool_calls": 22, "walltime_min": 11, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-22-IRM.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-15T06:49:43.251Z", "summary": "{\"symbol\":\"IRM\",\"company\":\"Iron Mountain Incorporated\",\"investigation_summary\":\"Iron Mountain reported outstanding Q1 2026 results — revenue up 22% YoY to $1.94B, AFFO beats, data center revenue +47% YoY, full-year guidance raised — driving the stock within 4.7% of its 52-week high ($134.09). However, a deep Form 4 audit reveals the recent filing cluster is almost entirely ROUTINE: the CEO exercis", "verdict": "unparseable", "tool_calls": 20, "walltime_min": 12, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-15-IRM.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-11T04:06:34.331Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Anti-signals for dilution and low liquidity trigger mandatory gates; additionally, the stock trades at a steep premium (48x Fwd P/E) with no insider conviction or mispricing edge, failing the anti-signal and edge checks required to justify any structure.", "score": 19, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 0, "catalyst": 15, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 4 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-11-IRM.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-11T04:06:02.495Z", "summary": "Iron Mountain is a high-quality data center REIT that has benefited enormously from AI-driven infrastructure demand. The company reported record Q1 2026 results with 22% revenue growth, raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $7.83-7.93B, and was recently named Google Cloud Partner of the Year — validating its digital transformation strategy. However, IRM is trading at a forward P/E of ~48x (vs specialty REIT sector median of ~20-25x), just 3.9% below its all-time high, with no insider open-market buying in the past 90 days. All recent Form 4s reflect mechanical equity compensation vesting/exercise events under pre-set plans, not conviction buys by management. Options flow is directionally bullish (97.6% call bias) but this reflects momentum rather than mispricing. The core AI/data-center thesis is well-understood and fully priced in — the stock's +52% YTD return represents multiple expansion already realized.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 18, "walltime_min": 8, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-11-IRM.scout.debug.json" } ], "lessons": [ { "id": "L-2026-06-19-010", "extracted_from": "2026-06-01-PANW-earnings-debit-call", "extracted_at": "2026-06-19T06:22:39.606Z", "outcome_context": "loss", "category": "technical", "pattern": "RSI(14) > 80 is a valid overbought signal that should reduce the technical_was_useful score and trigger a mean-reversion warning. In the scoring methodology, technical signals should not be dismissed as 'Tier 3 confirmation' when they indicate extreme conditions.", "evidence": "The scout correctly identified RSI=80.5 as an anti-signal but the Analyst still published the trade with a score of 66. The DA correctly flagged the 'sell-the-news' probability, but the score did not reflect this risk adequately.", "applicability": "Applies to any trade where RSI > 80 or < 20. Does NOT apply in strong trending regimes where RSI can remain extended.", "confidence": 4 } ], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "IRM", "call": "BUY", "confidence": 5, "score": 7, "factors": { "above_200dma": "+2", "above_50dma": "+1", "momentum_up": "+1 (21.0%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (62.1)", "macd_above_signal": "+1", "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (1d ago)", "near_52w_high": "+1 (0.0% from high)" }, "summary": "BUY (score +7) · 12-1 mom 21.0% · RSI 62.1 · above_both · 0.0% from high", "last_close": 133.06, "one_month_ago_close": 127.33, "twelve_month_ago_close": 105.25, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 20.98, "rsi_14": 62.1, "ma_stack": "above_both", "from_period_high_pct": 0, "period_high": 133.06, "price_targets": { "bear": 44, "fair": 129.62, "bull": 153.02, "bear_return_pct": -66.9, "fair_return_pct": -2.6, "bull_return_pct": 15, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 44, "target_mean": 131.54546, "target_high": 149, "analyst_count": 11 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:48.993Z" } }