{
  "symbol": "IONQ",
  "company": "IonQ, Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:48.940Z",
  "event_count": 7,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-22T13:43:22.300Z",
      "stage": "analyst",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "Null bid/ask data across the options chain creates a fatal flaw for income/strangle structuring, and the anti-signal gates (dilution + accounting volatility from warrant liabilities) combined with a parabolic 112% run leave no viable asymmetric or income edge. The market is correctly pricing the 'pretender' risk vs. Quantinuum's IPO.",
      "trigger": "[8k_recent] 1 recent 8-K(s) in last 7 days, latest filed 2026-06-22",
      "source": "hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-22T13:43:22.269Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Null bid/ask data across the options chain creates a fatal flaw for income/strangle structuring, and the anti-signal gates (dilution + accounting volatility from warrant liabilities) combined with a parabolic 112% run leave no viable asymmetric or income edge. The market is correctly pricing the 'pretender' risk vs. Quantinuum's IPO.",
      "score": 2,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 2,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 0
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-22-IONQ.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-22T13:42:26.632Z",
      "summary": "IonQ presents a fully-valued quantum computing name at 33% below its 52-week high with no open-market insider purchases in the past 90 days (all recent Form 4s were RSU vesting grants to directors), mixed put/call options flow, and an upcoming earnings catalyst on August 5. The primary anomaly is that IonQ has run from ~$27 in late March 2026 to $56+ in June — a 112% two-month surge driven by quantum-sector momentum (Quantinuum IPO speculation, D-Wave CHIPS Act LOI) rather than company-specific fundamental news. This parabolic move creates elevated IV but no clear edge for directional positioning. The stock is above its 50-DMA with neutral RSI(48.6), MACD bearish crossover 9 bars ago, suggesting exhaustion of the momentum run. The options chain shows null bid/ask data across all strikes — a fatal flaw for implied-move-based strategies per methodology lessons.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 18,
      "walltime_min": 33,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-22-IONQ.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-15T12:41:11.621Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Composite score of 16 reflects extreme valuation, negative earnings/FCF, zero insider buying, and material anti-signals (dilution from $1.4B warrant liability, accounting artifacts inflating Q1 net income). The dossier lacks a clear structural edge or catalyst clarity to justify any trade, making a skip the only prudent path.",
      "score": 16,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 4,
        "catalyst": 5,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 7
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-15-IONQ.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-15T12:40:20.932Z",
      "summary": "IonQ is a pure-play quantum computing company (trapped-ion qubits) trading near $57 with a $21B market cap. Q1 2026 revenue surged to $64.7M vs $7.6M YoY — but the beat was largely driven by acquisition consolidation and a $1.06B non-cash gain on warrant liabilities, not organic quantum commercialization. The primary live catalyst is the SkyWater Technology merger (announced Jan 25, 2026), which cleared SkyWater stockholder approval May 14 but faces FTC Second Request scrutiny that extends HSR waiting period indefinitely — creating material regulatory risk in Q2-Q3 2026. The stock has run from ~$29 in late March to $57 by mid-May on deal enthusiasm and quantum-sector momentum, with RSI at 69.8 and price 49% above its 200-day moving average. No open-market insider buys were detected — all recent Form 4s show routine option exercises or RSU vest-sell (10b5-1 plans). The options flow showing +54% net dollar call bias must be interpreted with caution given IV data artifacts in yfinance (several strikes report IV near zero, suggesting stale/missing data). Valuation is extreme at 104x EV/Revenue; even the bull thesis requires a decade of compounding revenue growth to justify current multiples.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 3,
      "tool_calls": 24,
      "walltime_min": 37,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-15-IONQ.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-08T17:57:06.799Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Material anti-signal gates (customer concentration, warrant dilution, and FTC regulatory overhang on the SkyWater merger) remain unmitigated despite $493M in cash reserves. Combined with accelerating cash burn, zero insider conviction, and a massive valuation premium, the risk/reward profile fails to clear the publish bar.",
      "score": 8,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 5,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 3
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-08-IONQ.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-08T17:56:17.686Z",
      "summary": "IonQ is a quantum computing pure-play that surged ~70% over the past year on momentum and acquisition-driven revenue expansion. The May 6 Q1 earnings revealed an optically strong net income of $804M — driven almost entirely by a $1.06B non-cash warrant liability mark-to-market gain — while operating cash burn widened to -$271M vs -$75M YoY as acquisitions ramp costs. Full-year revenue guidance was raised, supporting the bull case but not justifying the valuation at ~45% below 52-week high with no path to profitability visible in traditional metrics. The SkyWater merger (FTC Second Request issued April 24) is a live regulatory risk that could delay closing into Q3-Q4 2026 or potentially unwind. No insider open-market purchases were detected; the executive chair exercised vested options and sold at $44.90 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan — not conviction buying. Options flow is moderately bullish but elevated IV (~83-89%) makes premium collection attractive rather than directional speculation.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 35,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-08-IONQ.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "IONQ",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 3,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (44.1%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (50.2)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (11d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-29.5%)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom 44.1% · RSI 50.2 · above_both · -29.5% from high",
    "last_close": 57.85,
    "one_month_ago_close": 58.89,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 40.86,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 44.13,
    "rsi_14": 50.2,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -29.53,
    "period_high": 82.09,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 44.78,
      "fair": 60.09,
      "bull": 100,
      "bear_return_pct": -22.6,
      "fair_return_pct": 3.9,
      "bull_return_pct": 72.9,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 44.78,
        "target_mean": 68.79077,
        "target_high": 100,
        "analyst_count": 13
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:48.935Z"
  }
}