{
  "symbol": "HTH",
  "company": "Hilltop Holdings Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:48.641Z",
  "event_count": 3,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-05-26T23:43:53.978Z",
      "stage": "analyst",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "Trading at a ~70% premium to regional bank peers with zero open-market insider conviction, negligible options liquidity, and low daily volume that triggers the liquidity gate. No asymmetric upside or viable income structure justifies publication.",
      "trigger": "[insider_cluster_universe] 4 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · at least one open-market P/S trade verified",
      "source": "idle_hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-26T23:43:53.953Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Trading at a ~70% premium to regional bank peers with zero open-market insider conviction, negligible options liquidity, and low daily volume that triggers the liquidity gate. No asymmetric upside or viable income structure justifies publication.",
      "score": 13,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 8,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 5
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-26-HTH.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-26T23:43:01.738Z",
      "summary": "Hilltop Holdings is a Dallas-based financial holding company (Banking + Broker-Dealer + Mortgage Origination) with an investigation trigger of 4 Form 4 filings in 14 days — but all 4 are dividend-reinvestment acquisitions (A codes at $0 price), not open-market purchases. The smart-money signal is therefore weaker than the trigger implied. Q1 2026 earnings beat (+30.6% EPS surprise) with a recent 11% dividend hike and buyback expansion provide fundamental support, but the stock is near 52-week highs (6.6% below at $37.75), forward P/E of ~15.8x is elevated vs regional bank peers (~9-12x), and there are no identified mispricing or edge-in-data catalysts.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 10,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-26-HTH.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "HTH",
    "call": "BUY",
    "confidence": 5,
    "score": 7,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_up": "+1 (24.1%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (58.8)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (8d ago)",
      "near_52w_high": "+1 (-3.3% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "BUY (score +7) · 12-1 mom 24.1% · RSI 58.8 · above_both · -3.3% from high",
    "last_close": 38.68,
    "one_month_ago_close": 37.32,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 30.07,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 24.11,
    "rsi_14": 58.8,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -3.35,
    "period_high": 40.02,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 28.01,
      "fair": 38.61,
      "bull": 46.02,
      "bear_return_pct": -27.6,
      "fair_return_pct": -0.2,
      "bull_return_pct": 19,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 39,
        "target_mean": 39.66667,
        "target_high": 40,
        "analyst_count": 3
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:48.635Z"
  }
}