{
  "symbol": "ETN",
  "company": "Eaton Corporation plc",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:47.666Z",
  "event_count": 8,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-13T10:52:12.157Z",
      "stage": "devil",
      "outcome": "failed",
      "reason": null,
      "trigger": "[8k_recent] 1 recent 8-K(s) in last 7 days, latest filed 2026-06-11",
      "source": "hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-13T10:52:11.999Z",
      "skip": null,
      "reason": null,
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-13-ETN.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-13T10:50:48.088Z",
      "summary": "Eaton has two live catalysts: (1) an announced Reverse Morris Trust transaction filed June 11, 2026 to separate the Mobility segment into Dana Incorporated (DAN), giving ETN shareholders ~50.1% of a combined entity worth $10B+ plus ~$1.1B cash to Eaton; and (2) four transformative Q1 2026 acquisitions totaling ~$12.7B (Boyd Thermal at $9.55B, Ultra PCS at $1.53B, Fibrebond/Resilient already integrated), financed by over $8.5B in new debt issuance. The stock sold off 10% from early June highs following the Dana deal announcement but fundamentals are strong — Q1 revenue +16.8% YoY to $7.45B with positive EPS surprise (+2.9%). However, forward P/E of ~25x and EV/EBITDA of ~27.3 are rich for an industrial name that just added massive leverage. The market has not fully processed the balance sheet impact or how a post-Mobility-spun Eaton (pure-play Electrical + Aerospace) should be valued.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 19,
      "walltime_min": 37,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-13-ETN.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-22T06:12:30.851Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Stretched valuation (24x FPE vs 20x sector), weak technicals, and material insider selling create a low-conviction setup. Anti-signal gates (customer concentration) and lack of asymmetric catalysts or eligible income structures warrant a skip.",
      "score": 20,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 15,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 0
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-22-ETN.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-22T06:11:24.510Z",
      "summary": "Eaton presents a high-quality industrial business riding secular tailwinds from AI-driven data center power demand (Electrical Americas orders +240% Q1), but after reviewing the Form 4 cluster, neither of the two flagged filings represented genuine open-market cash purchases by executives. Director Darryl Wilson and director Robert Pragada both exercised RSUs (code M, not P); Mike Yelton actually SOLD shares in March; CFO Leonetti's transactions were RSU vesting events. The stock is near 52-week highs at forward P/E of ~24x vs sector median ~20x, with EV/EBITDA elevated at ~26x given recent acquisition-driven goodwill (Boyd Thermal $9.5B). Analyst consensus remains constructive and the business has genuine mispricing potential from AI power demand, but current technicals are weak (below 50-DMA, MACD bearish cross), positioning is fully valued, and there is no clear near-term catalyst beyond Q2 earnings on August 4. This is best suited as a structured-income candidate, not an asymmetric long.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 25,
      "walltime_min": 82,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-22-ETN.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-15T09:08:04.398Z",
      "summary": "Eaton is a high-quality power management industrial with genuine AI data center tailwinds (Electrical Americas DC orders +240% YoY in Q1 2026). However, the investigation trigger of '10 Form 4s in 14 days' resolved to mostly RSU vestings — Gerald Johnson's two open-market purchases on May 8/11 (961 shares, ~$390K) are genuine but modest for an independent director. No CEO/CFO buy exists. The stock trades near its 52-week high at $408 vs. $435 high, with a forward P/E of ~26x against a sector median in the mid-high teens — not mispriced; if anything, richly valued relative to peers. Q1 EPS actually declined YoY ($2.22 vs $2.45) due to acquisition-related interest and amortization burden. Debt surged from $8.8B to $18.5B post-$11B acquisition binge (Fibrebond $1.4B, Ultra PCS $1.5B). The options chain is illiquid with near-zero open interest across all strikes — making income strategies unattractive. No material mispricing exists; the AI data center thesis is well-known and priced in.",
      "verdict": "no_anomaly",
      "confidence": 5,
      "tool_calls": 26,
      "walltime_min": 19,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-15-ETN.scout.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-08T13:42:19.104Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Scored 20/100. ETN trades at a rich valuation (25.7x Fwd P/E, ~28x EV/EBITDA) with doubled leverage from recent acquisitions and zero insider buying, indicating the AI/data center thesis is already fully priced in. With no catalyst within 90 days, elevated integration risk, and stale options data, neither long nor income structures present a defensible edge.",
      "score": 20,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 10,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 5
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-08-ETN.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-08T13:41:41.388Z",
      "summary": "Eaton reported a strong Q1 2026 (revenue +17% YoY to $7.45B, adjusted EPS $2.81 beating by ~3%) and raised organic growth guidance from 8% to 10%, yet the stock dropped 7-8% post-earnings on forward-guidance disappointment — a classic fully-valued reaction. The company completed ~$11B in acquisitions (Boyd Thermal at $9.55B, Ultra PCS at $1.53B) that are reshaping its portfolio toward AI data center thermal and power infrastructure. No open-market insider buys were found across 25 recent Form 4s; the May 5 Form 4 was an RSU grant to a regional president, not a purchase. The stock trades within ~8% of its 52-week high with a forward P/E of 25.7x against a historically premium industrial multiple, elevated EV/EBITDA of ~27x, and compressed FCF yield (~1.7%). Debt doubled year-over-year to fund acquisitions, yet ROIC remains strong at ~20%. The pending Mobility spin-off (expected Q1 2027) is an additional complexity layer.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 19,
      "walltime_min": 47,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-08-ETN.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "ETN",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 4,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "below_50dma": "-1",
      "momentum_up": "+1 (11.1%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (50.1)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (3d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-7.0%)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +4) · 12-1 mom 11.1% · RSI 50.1 · above_200_only · -7.0% from high",
    "last_close": 405.28,
    "one_month_ago_close": 381.51,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 343.26,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 11.14,
    "rsi_14": 50.1,
    "ma_stack": "above_200_only",
    "from_period_high_pct": -7,
    "period_high": 435.78,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 305.05,
      "fair": 420.95,
      "bull": 534,
      "bear_return_pct": -24.7,
      "fair_return_pct": 3.9,
      "bull_return_pct": 31.8,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 321,
        "target_mean": 451.73297,
        "target_high": 534,
        "analyst_count": 27
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:47.660Z"
  }
}