{ "symbol": "CHRW", "company": "C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:46.434Z", "event_count": 6, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-06-10T12:41:45.738Z", "stage": "analyst", "outcome": "skip", "reason": "Score of 19 fails the <45 skip threshold. The dossier flags dilution and customer concentration; while the recent RSU grant is standard executive comp and not material dilution, concentration risk remains unquantified. Combined with premium valuation (EV/EBITDA ~27x vs ~15x for peers), lack of insider accumulation, and missing FCF/ROIC data, there is no compelling mispricing or asymmetric catalyst to justify a recommendation, aligning with Scout's range-bound verdict.", "trigger": "watchlist rotation · core · frontier-2030s", "source": "watchlist" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-10T12:41:45.715Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score of 19 fails the <45 skip threshold. The dossier flags dilution and customer concentration; while the recent RSU grant is standard executive comp and not material dilution, concentration risk remains unquantified. Combined with premium valuation (EV/EBITDA ~27x vs ~15x for peers), lack of insider accumulation, and missing FCF/ROIC data, there is no compelling mispricing or asymmetric catalyst to justify a recommendation, aligning with Scout's range-bound verdict.", "score": 19, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 3, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 6 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-10-CHRW.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-10T12:40:23.381Z", "summary": "C.H. Robinson is a large-cap freight broker and logistics intermediary with strong earnings beat history (+7-12% vs estimates in recent 4 quarters) and a newly launched AI platform (Lean AI Engineer) that could drive productivity gains in its 4PL managed services business. The stock has had an exceptional run (~42% YTD) from ~$132 to ~$188, approaching but not quite at the 52-week high of $203.34. Open-market insider buying is thin — only one confirmed open-market purchase (Michael Castagnetto, President-NAST, $100K on Feb 12 at $168.24); everything else in the last 90 days is RSU vesting or equity grants. The stock sits near full valuation with a forward P/E of ~26x and elevated EV/EBITDA of ~27x. Jefferies upgraded to Buy (target $200) and UBS raised to $230 on June 1. The July 29 earnings report represents the next known catalyst, but upside from current levels appears limited for a new long position without an outsized AI-driven beat.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 20, "walltime_min": 11, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-10-CHRW.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-03T04:31:19.575Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Triggered anti-signal gates for customer concentration and low liquidity. Additionally, the dossier explicitly notes a lack of material mispricing with only ~10% consensus upside, failing the 20% edge threshold, and the composite score is well below publication thresholds.", "score": 17, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 3, "catalyst": 10, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 0, "technical": 4 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-03-CHRW.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-03T04:30:32.458Z", "summary": "CHRW is an integrated freight brokerage and logistics company trading at $178.52 (12% below 52-week high of $203.34) with a forward P/E of ~24x on ~17-20% EPS growth in a flat-revenue environment — margin expansion story. Q1 2026 beat was solid (+9.6% surprise), Jefferies recently upgraded to Buy ($200 target, +12%). The Montgomery SCOTUS ruling is a regulatory catalyst that could accelerate freight brokerage consolidation, favoring large-scale players like CHRW. No open-market insider purchases were found in the past 90 days — recent Form 4s reflect equity compensation grants (RSU vesting), not directional bets by management. Options flow shows bullish bias (+87% net call notional) and high OI at $185/$200 calls suggests elevated premium but no alarming asymmetric positioning. The stock has run +34% YTD, is near 52-week highs with IV in the 39-51% range — attractive for covered-call or strangle income rather than a fresh directional long.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 19, "walltime_min": 10, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-03-CHRW.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-12T03:46:41.700Z", "summary": "{\"symbol\":\"CHRW\",\"company\":\"C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.\",\"investigation_summary\":\"CHRW is a ~$20B market cap global freight brokerage and logistics provider facing a credible long-term disruption threat from Amazon's May 2026 launch of Amazon Supply Chain Services (SCS). The triggering 8-K was entirely routine — the May 7 annual shareholder meeting with director elections, exec comp approval, De", "verdict": "unparseable", "tool_calls": 21, "walltime_min": 12, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-12-CHRW.scout.debug.json" } ], "lessons": [], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "CHRW", "call": "HOLD", "confidence": 3, "score": 3, "factors": { "above_200dma": "+2", "above_50dma": "+1", "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (88.9%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (46)", "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (2d ago)", "from_high": "0 (-10.8%)" }, "summary": "HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom 88.9% · RSI 46 · above_both · -10.8% from high", "last_close": 178.84, "one_month_ago_close": 178.13, "twelve_month_ago_close": 94.28, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 88.94, "rsi_14": 46, "ma_stack": "above_both", "from_period_high_pct": -10.84, "period_high": 200.59, "price_targets": { "bear": 90, "fair": 184.79, "bull": 230.68, "bear_return_pct": -49.7, "fair_return_pct": 3.3, "bull_return_pct": 29, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 90, "target_mean": 197.04167, "target_high": 230, "analyst_count": 24 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:46.429Z" } }