{
  "symbol": "CARR",
  "company": "Carrier Global Corporation",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:46.219Z",
  "event_count": 3,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-18T11:09:13.409Z",
      "stage": "cooldown",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "recent analyst:skip 61.2h ago < cooldown 168h, no material change",
      "trigger": "watchlist rotation · core · ai-buildout",
      "source": "watchlist"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-15T21:56:16.217Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Composite score of 12 reflects zero smart-money conviction, absent mispricing, and weak catalysts. Active anti-signals for dilution and ongoing PFAS litigation neutralize the setup, while consensus pricing implies only ~7% upside, failing the desk's 20% return threshold.",
      "score": 12,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 2,
        "catalyst": 0,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 10
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-15-CARR.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-15T21:55:17.550Z",
      "summary": "Carrier Global is a pure-play climate solutions company ($59B market cap) with four geographic segments spanning residential/commercial HVAC, heat pumps, and transport refrigeration. The Q1 2026 earnings beat (+12% EPS surprise vs. expectations) was real but driven largely by favorable tariff timing dynamics; full-year 2026 guidance came in below peer averages due to ongoing headwinds in the U.S. residential replacement market. No open-market insider purchases were found — all Form 4 activity was RSU vesting or board DSU grants, signaling no conviction buys from management. The stock trades near its 52-week high ($71.13 vs $81.09 high) with a forward P/E of 22.2 that is in line with peer Johnson Controls (25.4x) and Trane Technologies (27.8x). Options flow shows bullish directional bias, but the primary OI concentration on puts sits at the $65 level — protective positioning, not bullish speculative positioning. The investigation trigger referenced Modine's HVAC turnaround narrative; CARR's European Viessmann integration is more relevant to its own story and shows mixed results with segment-level weakness in Europe. No material mispricing exists given valuation parity with peers.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 20,
      "walltime_min": 26,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-15-CARR.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "CARR",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 4,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_down": "-1 (-14.2%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (58.6)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (13d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-12.4%)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +4) · 12-1 mom -14.2% · RSI 58.6 · above_both · -12.4% from high",
    "last_close": 70.75,
    "one_month_ago_close": 62.18,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 72.46,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": -14.19,
    "rsi_14": 58.6,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -12.36,
    "period_high": 80.73,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 56.51,
      "fair": 70.83,
      "bull": 92.84,
      "bear_return_pct": -20.1,
      "fair_return_pct": 0.1,
      "bull_return_pct": 31.2,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 60,
        "target_mean": 76.2513,
        "target_high": 90,
        "analyst_count": 23
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:46.214Z"
  }
}