{
  "symbol": "AXSM",
  "company": "Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:45.295Z",
  "event_count": 3,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-06-11T09:44:18.098Z",
      "stage": "analyst",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "The dossier lacks insider conviction, shows a recent earnings miss, trades at an all-time high with no margin of safety, and features a binary catalyst that has already passed with an unknown outcome. No viable structure emerges from the data.",
      "trigger": "[insider_cluster_universe] 4 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · at least one open-market P/S trade verified",
      "source": "idle_hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-06-11T09:44:18.070Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "The dossier lacks insider conviction, shows a recent earnings miss, trades at an all-time high with no margin of safety, and features a binary catalyst that has already passed with an unknown outcome. No viable structure emerges from the data.",
      "score": 12,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 0,
        "options_flow": 0,
        "catalyst": 5,
        "mispricing": 0,
        "quality": 0,
        "technical": 7
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-11-AXSM.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-06-11T09:43:44.216Z",
      "summary": "Investigation found 8 Form 4 filings in the last ~14 days but NO open-market P (purchase) transactions verified. The cluster consists entirely of RSU vest-converts and option-exercise-plus-immediate-sell patterns (all under pre-set 10b5-1 plans), not discretionary open-market stock purchases that would signal insider conviction. CEO Herriot Tabuteau exercised ~49,670 options at $4.95 strike on June 9 and sold at market ($241 avg) for ~$12M gross — a net gain transaction but coded as M/S (exercise-then-sale under a plan), not an open-market P buy. The company has genuine catalysts: AXS-05 PDUFA date of April 30, 2026 appears to have passed without public approval/rejection disclosure; Auvelity launch in Alzheimer's agitation is underway per June conference presentations; SUNOSI patent resolution through 2040 was just announced (June 3). However, at $246 the stock is at all-time highs with a forward P/E of ~42x on negative EBITDA, and RSI is elevated at 69. The bullish thesis rests on revenue momentum (+57% YoY) and pipeline optionality — not insider signals.",
      "verdict": "range_bound_or_income",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 26,
      "walltime_min": 28,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-11-AXSM.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "AXSM",
    "call": "HOLD",
    "confidence": 3,
    "score": 3,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (124.1%)",
      "rsi_neutral": "0 (55.7)",
      "recent_macd_bearish_cross": "-2 (1d ago)",
      "from_high": "0 (-5.2%)"
    },
    "summary": "HOLD (score +3) · 12-1 mom 124.1% · RSI 55.7 · above_both · -5.2% from high",
    "last_close": 241.97,
    "one_month_ago_close": 233.64,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 104.26,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 124.09,
    "rsi_14": 55.7,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": -5.17,
    "period_high": 255.17,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 169.34,
      "fair": 246.37,
      "bull": 380,
      "bear_return_pct": -30,
      "fair_return_pct": 1.8,
      "bull_return_pct": 57,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 200,
        "target_mean": 276.46713,
        "target_high": 380,
        "analyst_count": 21
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:45.290Z"
  }
}