{
  "symbol": "AUPH",
  "company": "Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:45.248Z",
  "event_count": 3,
  "events": [
    {
      "type": "pipeline_event",
      "ts": "2026-05-20T22:11:43.323Z",
      "stage": "analyst",
      "outcome": "skip",
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 60 threshold for asymmetric plays due to a narrow insider cluster (only 1 buyer), lack of institutional confirmation, and missing quantifiable mispricing/quality metrics. Dilution risk is negated by an active $300M buyback program, but the setup lacks the breadth of catalysts and structural support required to clear the bar.",
      "trigger": "[insider_cluster_universe] 3 Form 4 filings in last 14 days · at least one open-market P/S trade verified",
      "source": "idle_hunter"
    },
    {
      "type": "analyst_decision",
      "ts": "2026-05-20T22:11:43.295Z",
      "skip": true,
      "reason": "Score falls well below the 60 threshold for asymmetric plays due to a narrow insider cluster (only 1 buyer), lack of institutional confirmation, and missing quantifiable mispricing/quality metrics. Dilution risk is negated by an active $300M buyback program, but the setup lacks the breadth of catalysts and structural support required to clear the bar.",
      "score": 32,
      "breakdown": {
        "smart_money": 5,
        "options_flow": 2,
        "catalyst": 10,
        "mispricing": 5,
        "quality": 5,
        "technical": 5
      },
      "debug_path": "drafts/2026-05-20-AUPH.analyst.debug.json"
    },
    {
      "type": "scout_dossier",
      "ts": "2026-05-20T22:10:40.043Z",
      "summary": "Aurinia is a profitable biotech commercializing LUPKYNIS (voclosporin) for lupus nephritis. The investigation was triggered by Kevin Tang's Form 4 open-market purchase cluster in Feb-Mar 2026 (~900,000 shares at $13.90–$14.38 via his LP funds), followed by the March C-suite takeover (Tang named CEO, Hearne CFO, Cole COO). That cluster is verified P-code insider buying — the most significant signal on the stock. The company just closed the Kezar Life Sciences acquisition (May 8, 2026) for $41M, adding pipeline assets and triggering a CVR structure with potential milestone payments tied to zetomipzomib development or licensing. Q1 2026 earnings beat by 27%; forward P/E of ~14x is modest relative to biotech peers; FCF yield is strong at ~6%. The May 18, 2026 Form 4 grants (PSU awards with price-target vesting conditions) from new executives are equity compensation, not cash purchases — they signal alignment but aren't the open-market buy cluster that triggered this investigation. Options IV of 47–67% supports covered-call or strangle strategies near earnings.",
      "verdict": "promising",
      "confidence": 4,
      "tool_calls": 23,
      "walltime_min": 19,
      "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-20-AUPH.scout.debug.json"
    }
  ],
  "lessons": [],
  "chart_signal": {
    "ticker": "AUPH",
    "call": "BUY",
    "confidence": 4,
    "score": 7,
    "factors": {
      "above_200dma": "+2",
      "above_50dma": "+1",
      "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (91.9%)",
      "rsi_overbought": "-1 (73.8)",
      "macd_above_signal": "+1",
      "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (12d ago)",
      "near_52w_high": "+1 (0.0% from high)"
    },
    "summary": "BUY (score +7) · 12-1 mom 91.9% · RSI 73.8 · above_both · 0.0% from high",
    "last_close": 17.88,
    "one_month_ago_close": 15.45,
    "twelve_month_ago_close": 8.05,
    "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 91.93,
    "rsi_14": 73.8,
    "ma_stack": "above_both",
    "from_period_high_pct": 0,
    "period_high": 17.88,
    "price_targets": {
      "bear": 12.52,
      "fair": 16.91,
      "bull": 21,
      "bear_return_pct": -30,
      "fair_return_pct": -5.4,
      "bull_return_pct": 17.4,
      "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors",
      "street": {
        "target_low": 15,
        "target_mean": 17,
        "target_high": 21,
        "analyst_count": 7
      }
    },
    "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:45.243Z"
  }
}