{ "symbol": "ASML", "company": "ASML Holding N.V.", "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:45.059Z", "event_count": 8, "events": [ { "type": "pipeline_event", "ts": "2026-06-12T23:26:23.087Z", "stage": "cooldown", "outcome": "skip", "reason": "recent analyst:skip 53.0h ago < cooldown 168h, no material change", "trigger": "watchlist rotation · core · semis-ai-infra", "source": "watchlist" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-10T18:24:30.854Z", "skip": true, "reason": "ASML trades at a rich valuation at an all-time high with contracting gross margins and zero insider buying, negating the income setup despite elevated IV; the TeraFab catalyst remains highly speculative with no concrete timeline, making premium collection too risky without a defined range thesis.", "score": 34, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 4, "catalyst": 15, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 5, "technical": 10 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-10-ASML.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-10T18:23:58.398Z", "summary": "ASML is Europe’s most valuable company and the sole supplier of EUV lithography machines critical to advanced semiconductor manufacturing at TSMC, Samsung, Intel, and potentially TeraFab. The stock is up ~128% over 12 months and sits at an all-time high with a forward P/E of ~36.8x — rich but defensible given near-monopoly positioning and a strong guidance raise (FY2026: €34–39B revenue). Q1 2026 EPS beat by +8%, next earnings July 15, 2026. The TeraFab catalyst is live: Elon Musk held direct talks with CEO Fouquet in June 2026 about potentially equipping a $119B gigafab, and BofA just raised the target to EUR 1,921 (Buy). Options flow shows a massive OTM call block at the +21.9% moneyness strike (2140) with V/OI=19.2 — a singular whale bet on near-term upside. No insider open-market purchases appeared in EDGAR over the past 90 days; Form 4 data for ASML returned zero records, consistent with Dutch corporate governance structures where executives rarely transact in their own names via US Form 4 filings.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 17, "walltime_min": 18, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-10-ASML.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-06-03T15:37:50.627Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Score of 21 falls well below the 45 threshold. ASML trades at all-time highs with extreme valuation multiples (35x Fwd P/E, 51x EV/EBITDA) and zero margin of safety. The anti-signal for customer concentration >30% further restricts actionability, and the dossier confirms no mispricing exists to support a long or income thesis.", "score": 21, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 2, "catalyst": 5, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 10, "technical": 4 }, "debug_path": "drafts/2026-06-03-ASML.analyst.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-06-03T15:36:43.080Z", "summary": "ASML is a world monopoly in EUV lithography currently trading at all-time highs ($1,723), up ~82% YTD from its September 2025 low of $946. The stock has been driven by AI infrastructure demand driving near-unprecedented EUV utilization, with JPMorgan raising estimates on June 3 noting ASML can supply 'far more EUV tools than previously guided.' However, the forward P/E of ~35-36x is massively elevated vs. a semiconductor equipment peer median of ~20-22x, EV/EBITDA at 51x is extreme, and FCF yield is just ~1.2%. The July 15 earnings could catalyze further upside (Q1 beat was +8%, backlog €38.8B), but the stock is pricing in perfection with essentially zero margin of safety on a fundamental basis. No insider open-market purchases were found via Form 4 in recent periods, and the stock is already near its $1,732 all-time high.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 5, "tool_calls": 15, "walltime_min": 10, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-06-03-ASML.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-16T02:12:16.757Z", "summary": "ASML is the global monopoly provider of EUV lithography systems essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing at TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. The company raised 2026 guidance citing stronger-than-expected AI-related demand and simultaneously issued a call to European governments to accelerate chip/AI infrastructure policy. Fundamentals are exceptional (52% ROIC, ~53% gross margin, near-zero net debt), but the stock is up ~100% YTD and trading at 31x forward P/E with EV/EBITDA of 45x — premium multiples consistent with sector peers LRCX (35x PE) and AMAT (27x PE). The trigger was three far-OTM call whale blocks on June 18 expiry, but those strikes ($340-$890 range vs $1,502 spot) are speculative lottery tickets that don't signal genuine mispricing. No insider open-market buying in the past 90 days. Earnings history shows a beat-and-raise pattern. The stock is within 6% of its all-time high with no pullback edge available.", "verdict": "no_anomaly", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 16, "walltime_min": 7, "debug_path": "dossiers/2026-05-16-ASML.scout.debug.json" }, { "type": "analyst_decision", "ts": "2026-05-07T22:56:10.580Z", "skip": true, "reason": "Peak valuation (32x Fwd P/E, 46x EV/EBITDA) leaves no margin of safety; customer and geopolitical concentration triggers anti-signal gates; no specific market-missing edge or asymmetric income setup justifies entry.", "score": 19, "breakdown": { "smart_money": 0, "options_flow": 3, "catalyst": 5, "mispricing": 0, "quality": 5, "technical": 6 }, "debug_path": null }, { "type": "scout_dossier", "ts": "2026-05-07T22:55:02.966Z", "summary": "ASML is a world-dominant EUV lithography monopoly that has doubled in the past year on AI-driven semiconductor demand, and now sits within 2.15% of its all-time high. The options flow shows 58%/53.4% net call dollar bias confirming bullish speculative positioning. However, at forward P/E 31.8x vs sector peers at ~25-28x, EV/EBITDA of 46.4x, and analyst target implying only ~10% upside from here, there is no material mispricing in the market's favor. No insider open-market purchases appear (Dutch dual-listed company; Form 4 filing conventions differ). The next earnings catalyst (July 15) is solid but not a surprise re-rating event. MATCH Act export legislation represents a meaningful headwind rather than an upside catalyst. This is a high-quality business at peak valuation — the income premium from elevated IV (~50%) makes it interesting for covered-call or strangle structures on pullbacks, not a long-stock asymmetric setup.", "verdict": "range_bound_or_income", "confidence": 4, "tool_calls": 20, "walltime_min": 15, "debug_path": null } ], "lessons": [], "chart_signal": { "ticker": "ASML", "call": "BUY", "confidence": 5, "score": 7, "factors": { "above_200dma": "+2", "above_50dma": "+1", "momentum_strong_up": "+2 (95.7%)", "rsi_neutral": "0 (53.4)", "macd_above_signal": "+1", "recent_macd_bullish_cross": "+1 (21d ago)", "from_high": "0 (-7.8%)" }, "summary": "BUY (score +7) · 12-1 mom 95.7% · RSI 53.4 · above_both · -7.8% from high", "last_close": 1778.46, "one_month_ago_close": 1592, "twelve_month_ago_close": 813.36, "twelve_one_momentum_pct": 95.73, "rsi_14": 53.4, "ma_stack": "above_both", "from_period_high_pct": -7.84, "period_high": 1929.68, "price_targets": { "bear": 878.64, "fair": 1705.02, "bull": 2320.5, "bear_return_pct": -50.6, "fair_return_pct": -4.1, "bull_return_pct": 30.5, "method": "street_targets ⨯ chart_floors", "street": { "target_low": 878.63715, "target_mean": 1741.0018, "target_high": 2320.4985, "analyst_count": 15 } }, "generated_at": "2026-06-24T07:36:45.055Z" } }